PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Avoiding a Lost Decade - Sovereign Debt Workouts in the Post-COVID Era (with Spanish Translation)","authors":"L. Buchheit, G. Gulati","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3704048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3704048","url":null,"abstract":"All sovereign debt restructurings risk undershooting (providing less debt relief than is needed to restore the country to long-term sustainability) or overshooting (extracting more debt relief from creditors than turns out to have actually been necessary). Of these, undershooting will be the greater risk in sovereign debt workouts in the post-COVID era. Bondholders can be expected to prefer short and shallow debt restructurings that provide near-term debt relief (time enough to sell out of sticky positions). As for the future, creditors will endorse Doris Day’s assessment — que sera sera. For their part, politicians in the debtor country may also prefer a quick restructuring that provides abundant short-term debt relief even if it complicates the life of the next administration. The last time a systemic emerging market sovereign debt crisis was handled through a series of short and shallow debt restructurings was in the 1980s. It bequeathed to the debtor countries what is still called the Lost Decade. Can a similar fate be avoided in the decade that has just begun?","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75786877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Crisis, Excessive Pay And Fat Cats: Why Employment Scholars Should Start Reflecting on Regulation of Executive Remuneration","authors":"G. Gaudio","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3681952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3681952","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, flawed variable pay structures of executives were blamed by many for contributing to the build-up of the global financial turmoil, as they allegedly incentivized them to engage in excessive risk-taking. Legislators around the globe decided to regulate remuneration structures of the fat cats in the financial industry with a view to better align their compensation with effective risk management practices. Since 2010, several Directives have been adopted at EU level, imposing on financial institutions a combination of mandatory norms regarding how the variable part of remuneration is to be paid out. Although this topic has been widely investigated by corporate governance researchers, it has been largely neglected by labour law scholars. This article tries to fill this gap, analysing the issues of mandatory pay structure in the financial industry through the lenses of employment law. These peculiar mandatory norms can be interesting for labour lawyers for the following two reasons. First, because they establish a structural participative nexus between employers and their executives, contributing to set up novel possible forms of managerial democracy in financial institutions. Second, because these mandatory norms are characterized, as many employment norms, by inderogability. However, their structure is reversed. Rather than being unidirectional in favour of employees, they protect employers, due to the predominant public interest of safeguarding the stability and soundness of the financial system. The article concludes by analysing the role that norms regarding pay structure can play in the evolutionary process of employment norms’ inderogability.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81793483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New Models of ‘Intelligent Investing’ for the Post-Crisis Economy","authors":"M. Fenwick, E. Vermeulen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3660080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660080","url":null,"abstract":"Is coronavirus accelerating the future? Will the crisis provide a tipping point that encourages corporations to promote socially desirable values? Will there be a wider recognition that a sole focus on profits and investors hurts both companies and society? Or, will we simply return to business-as-usual once the memory of the crisis fades? \u0000 \u0000The financially driven corporate world has been losing its appeal over recent years and an anti-corporate sentiment has become more prevalent. There is a greater demand for better standards of corporate behavior and new metrics for judging corporate success. What is ironic is that corporations that embrace a more stakeholder-oriented purpose already outperform their peers when it comes to stock market returns. When thinking about rebuilding the economy post-crisis, this paper argues that investors need to be encouraged to take ‘intelligent risks’ that focus on stakeholder-oriented listed and non-listed companies.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83813682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New Bank Resolution Mechanisms: Is It the End of the Bailout Era?","authors":"Aneta Hryckiewicz, Natalia Kryg, D. Tsomocos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3639644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639644","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effectiveness of three common bank resolution mechanisms: bailouts, bank sales, and ‘bad banks’. We first apply the financial fragility model of Goodhart et al. (2005, 2006a) to analyze the impact of these resolution mechanisms on bank behavior. We then use a novel bank-level database on 39 countries that used these resolution mechanisms during 1992-2017 and analyze the relationship between the mechanisms applied and subsequent bank performance. We find that the effectiveness of resolution mechanisms depends crucially on the timing and severity of crises. While mergers can deliver good results at the beginning of a crisis, this is less likely at later stages of a crisis. In the event of severe crises, mechanisms aimed at restructuring bank balance sheets are most likely to deliver positive results. We find no support for bank bailouts as an optimal strategy. A calibration exercise shows that the effectiveness of resolution mechanisms to mitigate systemic risk declines with the severity of crises.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"135 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76885837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"'Time Suspended' A Self-Organizing Solution to Ensure the Economic Recovery","authors":"L. Doná, R. Douady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3635812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3635812","url":null,"abstract":"The crisis has affected different kinds of economic agents unequally: production engine businesses (those that deliver goods and services) have been affected much more than passive holders of financial or real capital assets. Economic time has essentially been “stopped” – with many businesses unable to collect revenues but still saddled with large time-based expenses that stress their liquidity jeopardizing their survival. We suggest declaring Time as Suspended and setting all interest rates on all financial assets and on all unproductive business real assets to 0% while the crisis perdures and concomitantly setting a grace period for any installment, while accordingly extending all contracts by the same amount of time – throughout the entire economy chains. In this paper we analyze the costs and benefits on various economy agents and the government and argue that everyone will be better off if an avalanche of closures, bankruptcies and legal expenses can be prevented.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79424239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19: Economic Recession or Depression?","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3575881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3575881","url":null,"abstract":"Este documento esta interesado en presentar un nuevo indicador macroeconomico para evaluar el impacto de cualquier pandemia masiva como COVID-19 en el desempeno de la economia mundial a corto plazo (1 ano) y largo plazo (10 anos). El nuevo indicador macroeconomico se titula \"El desencadenamiento economico no controlado de COVID-19 (-δCOVID-19)\". De hecho, el nuevo indicador macroeconomico supone que siempre COVID-19 sera el factor principal para generar una gran fuga economica en la formacion final del PIB en cualquier momento y en cualquier lugar. Ademas, el mismo documento esta dispuesto a evaluar dos posibles escenarios posteriores a COVID-19. El primer escenario: si COVID-19 va a generar una breve recesion economica, entonces el producto interno bruto de la economia mundial puede retrasarse entre dos y tres anos. El segundo escenario: si COVID-19 va a producir una gran depresion economica, entonces el producto interno bruto de la economia mundial puede tomar facilmente entre cinco y diez anos, como el caso de la gran depresion mundial de 1928. A partir de ahora, los economistas necesitan decidir entre dos posibles opciones para resolver estos dos tipos de crisis economica (recesion o depresion): la primera opcion son los usos de las politicas economicas clasicas –fiscales o monetarias- de experiencias pasadas (keynesianos y monetaristas). La segunda opcion es la creacion de enfoques de politicas nuevos e innovadores para reducir el dano de COVID-19 con el apoyo de nuevos enfoques teoricos y metodologicos.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82164035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Riding Out of a Financial Crisis: The Joint Effect of Trust and Corporate Ownership","authors":"M. Amore, Mircea Epure","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2968889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2968889","url":null,"abstract":"We study how generalized trust shapes the ability of firms with different ownership forms to obtain trade financing and perform during a financial crisis. Exploiting geographic variations in trust across Italian regions and the occurrence of the financial crisis in a difference-in-differences setting, we show that generalized trust makes family firms less able to obtain trade financing during a financial crisis. This finding maps into performance results: trust alleviates the negative effect of a crisis for non-family firms, while it aggravates the negative effect for family firms. Trust is especially harmful for firms with a high level of family representation in board positions. Collectively, our findings illustrate how cultural characteristics interact with corporate attributes in shaping a firm’s prospects.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85115889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"1933–1938: The New Deal and the Great Depression","authors":"R. Bruner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3648508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3648508","url":null,"abstract":"In December 1938, US president Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) contemplated recent setbacks that challenged the viability of his program of economic recovery, popularly called the “New Deal.” Various achievements and defeats in the first three years of his administration energized his supporters and galvanized a diverse opposition of conservatives, populists, and extremists—who believed FDR had gone too far or not far enough. Critics accused him of overreach of powers beyond his constitutional authority, of inconsistency, of inciting class warfare, and of creating conditions that actually retarded recovery. Would the record of the New Deal sustain the level of popular support that he won in the election of 1936? Had his policies and programs promoted economic recovery? What lessons should he learn from his defeats? What changes should he make in his programs and politics as he entered the election year? Should he double down on his progressive agenda or change course? Excerpt UVA-F-1951 Jun. 30, 2020 1933–1938: The New Deal and the Great Depression In late 1938, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) contemplated recent political setbacks that appeared to doom his political program, popularly called the “New Deal.” A program of unprecedented breadth and impact, the New Deal stood out as the most aggressive civic reaction to an economic crisis in history. And it proved to be among the most polarizing. Various achievements and defeats in the first five years of FDR's administration energized his supporters and galvanized a diverse opposition of conservatives, populists, socialists, communists, isolationists, and extremists—all of whom believed FDR had gone too far or not far enough. Critics accused him of overreach of powers beyond his constitutional authority, of inconsistency, of class warfare, and of creating conditions that actually retarded recovery. Nevertheless, voters had returned FDR to a second term in office with a thumping majority of 60.8% in 1936 (see Exhibit1). On the basis of that momentum, FDR had sought to sustain his reform policies of “bold, persistent experimentation,” only to confront rising resistance and political humiliation in the midterm elections of 1938. By year-end, FDR saw that the New Deal had lost its momentum and that rising international tensions would command more of the nation's attention and resources. In his draft State of the Union Address for January 4, 1939, he planned to “advise the congress of disturbance abroad and of the need of putting our own house in order in the face of storm signals from across the seas” and to relegate “our nation's program of social and economic reform [to]…a part of defense”—thus marking a major shift in priorities and policies. . . .","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72955069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Granger Predictability of Oil Prices after the Great Recession","authors":"Szilárd Benk, Max Gillman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3519916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3519916","url":null,"abstract":"Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970’s oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"10 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76321345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Slowdowns: Fundamentals Overshadowed by Structural and Policy Problems","authors":"V. Sapovadia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3477618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3477618","url":null,"abstract":"Whenever recession looms around, experts start blaming policy paralysis, wrong policies, policy implementation and vision of the government. Policy makers, their advisers and economist will think around narrow technical aspects of ‘economics’. Economists will talk about structural problems. Hardly someone goes beyond investment, demand, supply, saving, inflation and bank rates. This paper breaks on the basics. We try to dissect fundamentals of the economy. The variables of economy like investment, demand, supply, saving, inflation and bank rates are man-made. The government attempts to control economy by fixing bank rates, tax rates, financial incentives and so forth. Policy makers ignore the psychological and social factors that influence the economy. The paradigm shift in thinking is required to see beyond narrow definition and elements of ‘economics’. It must understood that economics and it’s so called elements are not in isolation. Those elements are not well understood like Mendeleev's table of elements. Elements of economics are required to seen in bedrock of personal, social, technology and political issues.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"R-31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84754442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}