Nature Human Behaviour最新文献

{"title":"The impact of self-report inaccuracy in the UK Biobank and its interplay with selective participation","authors":"Tabea Schoeler, Jean-Baptiste Pingault, Zoltán Kutalik","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02061-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02061-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although the use of short self-report measures is common practice in biobank initiatives, such a phenotyping strategy is inherently prone to reporting errors. To explore challenges related to self-report errors, we first derived a reporting error score in the UK Biobank (UKBB; <i>n</i> = 73,127), capturing inconsistent self-reporting in time-invariant phenotypes across multiple measurement occasions. We then performed genome-wide scans on the reporting error score, applied downstream analyses (linkage disequilibrium score regression and Mendelian randomization) and compared its properties to the UKBB participation propensity. Finally, we improved phenotype resolution for 24 measures and inspected the changes in genomic findings. We found that reporting error was present across all 33 assessed self-report measures, with repeatability levels as low as 47% (childhood body size). Reporting error was not independent from UKBB participation, evidenced by the negative genetic correlation between the two outcomes (<i>r</i>_g = −0.77), their shared causes (for example, education) and the loss in self-report accuracy following participation bias correction. Across all analyses, the impact of reporting error ranged from reduced power (for example, for gene discovery) to biased estimates (for example, if present in the exposure variable) and attenuation of genome-wide quantities (for example, 21% relative attenuation in SNP heritability for childhood height). Our findings highlight that both self-report accuracy and selective participation are competing biases and sources of poor reproducibility for biobank-scale research.</p>","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"89 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Report uncertainty information to improve trust in science","authors":"Raul Cruz-Cano,&nbsp;David B. Allison","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02084-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02084-3","url":null,"abstract":"The results of scientific studies should be accompanied by information that individuals can use to make uncertainty judgements. By including this information, we might increase trust in the scientific process. We advocate for scientists to use quantitative uncertainty informative data to provide this information when reporting results.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 1","pages":"9-12"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142804536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neuropsychiatric polygenic scores are weak predictors of professional categories","authors":"Georgios Voloudakis, Karen Therrien, Simone Tomasi, Veera M. Rajagopal, Shing Wan Choi, Ditte Demontis, John F. Fullard, Anders D. Børglum, Paul F. O’Reilly, Gabriel E. Hoffman, Panos Roussos","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02074-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02074-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Polygenic scores (PGS) enable the exploration of pleiotropic effects and genomic dissection of complex traits. Here, in 421,889 individuals with European ancestry from the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank, we examine how PGS of 17 neuropsychiatric traits are related to membership in 22 broad professional categories. Overall, we find statistically significant but weak (the highest odds ratio is 1.1 per PGS standard deviation) associations between most professional categories and genetic predisposition for at least one neuropsychiatric trait. Secondary analyses in UK Biobank revealed independence of these associations from observed fluid intelligence and sex-specific effects. By leveraging aggregate population trends, we identified patterns in the public interest, such as the mediating effect of education attainment on the association of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder PGS with multiple professional categories. However, at the individual level, PGS explained less than 0.5% of the variance of professional membership, and almost none after we adjusted for education and socio-economic status.</p>","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How trait impressions of faces shape subsequent mental state inferences","authors":"Chujun Lin,&nbsp;Umit Keles,&nbsp;Mark A. Thornton,&nbsp;Ralph Adolphs","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02059-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02059-4","url":null,"abstract":"People form impressions of one another in a split second from faces. However, people also infer others’ momentary mental states on the basis of context—for example, one might infer that somebody feels encouraged from the fact that they are receiving constructive feedback. How do trait judgements of faces influence these context-based mental state inferences? In this Registered Report, we asked participants to infer the mental states of unfamiliar people, identified by their neutral faces, under specific contexts. To increase generalizability, we representatively sampled all stimuli from inclusive sets using computational methods. We tested four hypotheses: that trait impressions of faces (1) are correlated with subsequent mental state inferences in a range of contexts, (2) alter the dimensional space that underlies mental state inferences, (3) are associated with specific mental state dimensions in this space and (4) causally influence mental state inferences. We found evidence in support of all hypotheses. In this Stage 2 Registered Report, Lin et al. show that trait impressions of faces are correlated with and causally influence mental state inferences from the same faces.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 1","pages":"208-226"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limited diffusion of scientific knowledge forecasts collapse","authors":"Donghyun Kang,&nbsp;Robert S. Danziger,&nbsp;Jalees Rehman,&nbsp;James A. Evans","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02041-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02041-0","url":null,"abstract":"Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values, and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate an analogous phenomenon in the case of biomedical knowledge, when promising research receives inflated attention. We introduce a diffusion index that quantifies whether research areas have been amplified within social and scientific bubbles, or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. We illustrate the utility of our diffusion approach in tracking the trajectories of cardiac stem cell research (a bubble that collapsed) and cancer immunotherapy (which showed sustained growth). We then trace the diffusion of 28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9 M papers and more than 80 M citations to demonstrate that limited diffusion of biomedical knowledge anticipates abrupt decreases in popularity. Our analysis emphasizes that restricted diffusion, implying a socio-epistemic bubble, leads to dramatic collapses in relevance and attention accorded to scientific knowledge. Kang et al. examine how patterns of knowledge diffusion can forecast the collapse of scientific ‘bubbles’, highlighting that sustained scientific advancement requires diverse audiences.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 2","pages":"268-276"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social and genetic diversity in first farmers of central Europe","authors":"Pere Gelabert,&nbsp;Penny Bickle,&nbsp;Daniela Hofmann,&nbsp;Maria Teschler-Nicola,&nbsp;Alexandra Anders,&nbsp;Xin Huang,&nbsp;Michelle Hämmerle,&nbsp;Iñigo Olalde,&nbsp;Romain Fournier,&nbsp;Harald Ringbauer,&nbsp;Ali Akbari,&nbsp;Olivia Cheronet,&nbsp;Iosif Lazaridis,&nbsp;Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht,&nbsp;Daniel M. Fernandes,&nbsp;Katharina Buttinger,&nbsp;Kim Callan,&nbsp;Francesca Candilio,&nbsp;Guillermo Bravo Morante,&nbsp;Elizabeth Curtis,&nbsp;Matthew Ferry,&nbsp;Denise Keating,&nbsp;Suzanne Freilich,&nbsp;Aisling Kearns,&nbsp;Éadaoin Harney,&nbsp;Ann Marie Lawson,&nbsp;Kirsten Mandl,&nbsp;Megan Michel,&nbsp;Victoria Oberreiter,&nbsp;Brina Zagorc,&nbsp;Jonas Oppenheimer,&nbsp;Susanna Sawyer,&nbsp;Constanze Schattke,&nbsp;Kadir Toykan Özdoğan,&nbsp;Lijun Qiu,&nbsp;J. Noah Workman,&nbsp;Fatma Zalzala,&nbsp;Swapan Mallick,&nbsp;Matthew Mah,&nbsp;Adam Micco,&nbsp;Franz Pieler,&nbsp;Juraj Pavuk,&nbsp;Alena Šefčáková,&nbsp;Catalin Lazar,&nbsp;Andrej Starović,&nbsp;Marija Djuric,&nbsp;Maja Krznarić Škrivanko,&nbsp;Mario Šlaus,&nbsp;Željka Bedić,&nbsp;Friederike Novotny,&nbsp;László D. Szabó,&nbsp;Orsolya Cserpák-Laczi,&nbsp;Tamara Hága,&nbsp;László Szolnoki,&nbsp;Zsigmond Hajdú,&nbsp;Pavel Mirea,&nbsp;Emese Gyöngyvér Nagy,&nbsp;Zsuzsanna M. Virág,&nbsp;Attila Horváth M.,&nbsp;László András Horváth,&nbsp;Katalin T. Biró,&nbsp;László Domboróczki,&nbsp;Tamás Szeniczey,&nbsp;János Jakucs,&nbsp;Márta Szelekovszky,&nbsp;Farkas Zoltán,&nbsp;Sándor József Sztáncsuj,&nbsp;Krisztián Tóth,&nbsp;Piroska Csengeri,&nbsp;Ildikó Pap,&nbsp;Róbert Patay,&nbsp;Anđelka Putica,&nbsp;Branislav Vasov,&nbsp;Bálint Havasi,&nbsp;Katalin Sebők,&nbsp;Pál Raczky,&nbsp;Gabriella Lovász,&nbsp;Zdeněk Tvrdý,&nbsp;Nadin Rohland,&nbsp;Mario Novak,&nbsp;Matej Ruttkay,&nbsp;Maria Krošláková,&nbsp;Jozef Bátora,&nbsp;Tibor Paluch,&nbsp;Dušan Borić,&nbsp;János Dani,&nbsp;Martin Kuhlwilm,&nbsp;Pier Francesco Palamara,&nbsp;Tamás Hajdu,&nbsp;Ron Pinhasi,&nbsp;David Reich","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02034-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02034-z","url":null,"abstract":"The Linearbandkeramik (LBK) Neolithic communities were the first to spread farming across large parts of Europe. We report genome-wide data for 250 individuals: 178 individuals from whole-cemetery surveys of the Alföld Linearbankeramik Culture eastern LBK site of Polgár-Ferenci-hát, the western LBK site of Nitra Horné Krškany and the western LBK settlement and massacre site of Asparn-Schletz, as well as 48 LBK individuals from 16 other sites and 24 earlier Körös and Starčevo individuals from 17 more sites. Here we show a systematically higher percentage of western hunter-gatherer ancestry in eastern than in western LBK sites, showing that these two distinct LBK groups had different genetic trajectories. We find evidence for patrilocality, with more structure across sites in the male than in the female lines and a higher rate of within-site relatives for males. At Asparn-Schletz we find almost no relatives, showing that the massacred individuals were from a large population, not a small community. Gelabert et al. examine genomic and archaeological data from Europe’s earliest farming communities in Central Europe (5500–5000 bce). They find differentiated genetic networks but no evidence of unequal access to resources linked to sex or kin.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 1","pages":"53-64"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142742609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results","authors":"Xiaoliang Luo,&nbsp;Akilles Rechardt,&nbsp;Guangzhi Sun,&nbsp;Kevin K. Nejad,&nbsp;Felipe Yáñez,&nbsp;Bati Yilmaz,&nbsp;Kangjoo Lee,&nbsp;Alexandra O. Cohen,&nbsp;Valentina Borghesani,&nbsp;Anton Pashkov,&nbsp;Daniele Marinazzo,&nbsp;Jonathan Nicholas,&nbsp;Alessandro Salatiello,&nbsp;Ilia Sucholutsky,&nbsp;Pasquale Minervini,&nbsp;Sepehr Razavi,&nbsp;Roberta Rocca,&nbsp;Elkhan Yusifov,&nbsp;Tereza Okalova,&nbsp;Nianlong Gu,&nbsp;Martin Ferianc,&nbsp;Mikail Khona,&nbsp;Kaustubh R. Patil,&nbsp;Pui-Shee Lee,&nbsp;Rui Mata,&nbsp;Nicholas E. Myers,&nbsp;Jennifer K. Bizley,&nbsp;Sebastian Musslick,&nbsp;Isil Poyraz Bilgin,&nbsp;Guiomar Niso,&nbsp;Justin M. Ales,&nbsp;Michael Gaebler,&nbsp;N. Apurva Ratan Murty,&nbsp;Leyla Loued-Khenissi,&nbsp;Anna Behler,&nbsp;Chloe M. Hall,&nbsp;Jessica Dafflon,&nbsp;Sherry Dongqi Bao,&nbsp;Bradley C. Love","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02046-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02046-9","url":null,"abstract":"Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. Here, to evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs indicated high confidence in their predictions, their responses were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where LLMs assist humans in making discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavours. Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize vast amounts of information. Luo et al. show that LLMs—especially BrainGPT, an LLM the authors tuned on the neuroscience literature—outperform experts in predicting neuroscience results and could assist scientists in making future discoveries.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 2","pages":"305-315"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02046-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142718323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the association between the introduction of mandatory calorie labelling and energy consumed using observational data from the out-of-home food sector in England","authors":"Megan Polden,&nbsp;Andrew Jones,&nbsp;Michael Essman,&nbsp;Jean Adams,&nbsp;Tom R. P. Bishop,&nbsp;Thomas Burgoine,&nbsp;Stephen J. Sharp,&nbsp;Martin White,&nbsp;Richard Smith,&nbsp;Aisling Donohue,&nbsp;Rozemarijn Witkam,&nbsp;I. Gusti Ngurah Edi Putra,&nbsp;Jane Brealey,&nbsp;Eric Robinson","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02032-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02032-1","url":null,"abstract":"In April 2022, mandatory kilocalorie (kcal) labelling in the out-of-home food sector was introduced as a policy to reduce obesity in England. Here we examined whether the implementation of this policy was associated with a consumer behaviour change. Large out-of-home food sector outlets subject to kcal labelling legislation were visited pre- and post-implementation, and customer exit surveys were conducted with 6,578 customers from 330 outlets. Kcals purchased and consumed, knowledge of purchased kcals and reported noticing and use of kcal labelling were examined. The results suggested that the introduction of the mandatory kcal labelling policy in England was not associated with a significant decrease in self-reported kcals purchased (B = 11.31, P = 0.564, 95% confidence interval (CI) −27.15 to 49.77) or consumed (B = 18.51, P = 0.279, 95% CI −15.01 to 38 52.03). Post-implementation, participants underestimated the energy content of their purchased meal less (B = 61.21, P = 0.002, 95% CI 21.57 to 100.86) and were more likely to report noticing (odds ratio 2.25, P &lt; 0.001, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.73) and using (odds ratio 2.15, P &lt; 0.001, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.85) kcal labelling, which may have wider public health implications. The introduction of mandatory calorie labelling in out-of-home food outlets in England was not associated with a reduction in calories purchased or consumed. There was a post-policy increase in self-reported noticing and use of calorie labelling.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 2","pages":"277-286"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02032-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Child literacy in low- and middle-income countries","authors":"Michelle Kaffenberger","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02056-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02056-7","url":null,"abstract":"Despite rising school enrolments, in many places learning achievement has remained very low. Crawford et al. analyse data on half a million pupils from 48 low- and middle-income countries and find that children fall further behind literacy benchmarks with each grade. They suggest that a greater focus on phonics instruction and decoding skills may improve outcomes.","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 1","pages":"18-19"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142696583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"It is time to ensure research access to platform data","authors":"Patti M. Valkenburg,&nbsp;Amber van der Wal,&nbsp;Teun Siebers,&nbsp;Ine Beyens,&nbsp;Laura Boeschoten,&nbsp;Theo Araujo","doi":"10.1038/s41562-024-02066-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41562-024-02066-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19074,"journal":{"name":"Nature Human Behaviour","volume":"9 1","pages":"1-2"},"PeriodicalIF":21.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142678576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}