Nature Geoscience最新文献

{"title":"Humans move water and mantle","authors":"Simon Lamb","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01665-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01665-9","url":null,"abstract":"Continued ground uplift long after the drying out of the Aral Sea demonstrates that human activity can provoke a response deep inside our planet, in this case by causing rock in Earth’s mantle to flow.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143790202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil moisture gradients strengthen intense thunderstorms","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01676-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01676-6","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of global datasets indicates that dry to wet transitions in soil wetness over regions spanning around 500 km can increase the size and rainfall intensity of organized thunderstorms around the world. Therefore, observations of soil moisture could improve storm forecasts and support adaptation to changing hazards under climate change.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143790055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear","authors":"Emma J. Barton, Cornelia Klein, Christopher M. Taylor, John Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Ben Maybee, Zhe Feng, L. Ruby Leung","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01666-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01666-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143775406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Giant iceberg meltwater increases upper-ocean stratification and vertical mixing","authors":"Natasha S. Lucas, J. Alexander Brearley, Katharine R. Hendry, Theo Spira, Anne Braakmann-Folgmann, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael P. Meredith, Geraint A. Tarling","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01659-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01659-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ice-sheet mass loss is one of the clearest manifestations of climate change, with Antarctica discharging mass into the ocean via melting or through calving. The latter produces icebergs that can modify ocean water properties, often at great distances from source. This affects upper-ocean physics and primary productivity, with implications for atmospheric carbon drawdown. A detailed understanding of iceberg modification of ocean waters has hitherto been hindered by a lack of proximal measurements. Here unique measurements of a giant iceberg from an underwater glider enable quantification of meltwater effects on the physical and biological processes in the upper layers of the Southern Ocean, a region disproportionately important for global heat and carbon sequestration. Iceberg basal melting erodes seasonally produced winter water layer stratification, normally forming a strong potential energy barrier to vertical exchange of surface and deep waters, while freshwater run-off increases and shoals near-surface stratification. Nutrient-rich deeper waters, incorporating meltwater loaded with terrigenous material, are ventilated to below this stratification maxima, providing a potential mechanism for alleviating critical phytoplankton-limiting components. Regional historical hydrographic data demonstrate similar stratification changes during the passage of another large iceberg, suggesting that they may be an important pathway of aseasonal winter water modification.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143775434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High sensitivity of cloud formation to aerosol changes","authors":"Annele Virtanen, Jorma Joutsensaari, Harri Kokkola, Daniel G. Partridge, Sara Blichner, Øyvind Seland, Eemeli Holopainen, Emanuele Tovazzi, Antti Lipponen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ari Leskinen, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, Paul Zieger, Radovan Krejci, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ilona Riipinen, Johannes Quaas, Sami Romakkaniemi","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01662-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01662-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The susceptibility of cloud droplet number to cloud condensation nuclei number is one of the major factors controlling the highly uncertain change in the amount of solar radiation reflected by clouds when aerosol emissions are perturbed (the radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions). We investigate this susceptibility in low-level stratiform clouds using long-term (3–10-yr) in situ observations of aerosols and clouds at three high-latitude locations. The in situ observations show higher susceptibility for low-level stratiform clouds than values reported for satellite data. We estimate −1.16 W m⁻² for the aerosol indirect radiative forcing on the basis of our observations, which is at the higher end of satellite-derived forcing estimates and the uncertainty range of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. We evaluate four Earth system models against the observations and find large inter-model variability in the susceptibility. Our results demonstrate that, even if the susceptibility in some of the models is relatively close to observations, the underlying physics in the models is unrealistic when compared with observations. We show that the inter-model variability is driven by differences in sub-grid-scale updraught velocities and aerosol size distributions, raising a need to improve these aspects in models.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143766412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Higher precipitation in East Asia and western United States expected with future Southern Ocean warming","authors":"Hanjun Kim, Sarah M. Kang, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Yechul Shin, Paulo Ceppi, Sang-Wook Yeh, Se-Yong Song","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01669-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01669-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Precipitation over East Asia and the western United States is projected to increase as a result of global warming, although substantial uncertainties persist regarding the magnitude. A key factor driving these uncertainties is the tropical surface warming pattern, yet the mechanisms behind both this warming pattern and the resulting regional precipitation changes remain elusive. Here we use a set of climate model experiments to argue that these changes are partly driven by global teleconnection from the Southern Ocean, which rapidly absorbs anthropogenic heat but releases it with a delay of decades to a century. We show that the delayed Southern Ocean warming contributes to broad tropical ocean warming with an El Niño-like pattern, enhancing precipitation during summer in East Asia and winter in the western United States. The atmospheric teleconnections from the tropical ocean link the Southern Ocean warming to the Northern Hemisphere regional wetting. Southern Hemisphere low clouds are a key regulator of this teleconnection, partly explaining the projected uncertainty of regional precipitation. The documented teleconnection has practical implications: even if climate mitigation reduces carbon dioxide levels, the delayed Southern Ocean warming will sustain a wetter East Asia and western United States for decades to centuries.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Moho is in reach of ocean drilling with the Meng Xiang","authors":"Zhen Sun, Yue Xu, Yinan Deng","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01675-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01675-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The <i>Meng Xiang</i> (‘Dream’ in Chinese) is a recently commissioned vessel that was specifically designed to drill through intact ocean crust into the mantle¹⁰. Able to operate in rough seas with a dynamic stabilization system (pictured), it can drill down up to 11 kilometres using a variety of modes — including both riser and riserless systems — optimized for settings from the tropics to the poles. The titanium alloy drill rod and the diamond bit enable reliable drilling in the high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Rapid processing and analysis of core material will take place in a floating laboratory that can operate continuously for months. But we must be patient, allowing enough time for the process of trial and error. For any chosen site, we must be prepared for multiple entries, multiple expeditions, and perhaps multiple years to reach the Moho. Beyond targeting the Moho, the ship has the capability to carry on the legacy of the <i>JOIDES Resolution</i> — a drilling vessel that was operated by the International Ocean Discovery Program until 2024 — by addressing the full range of scientific questions identified by the international ocean drilling community⁸.</p><p>The first scientific drilling expeditions by the <i>Meng Xiang</i> are expected to begin next year and plans are being developed to carry out full-scale drilling to the Moho beneath the Pacific or Indian seafloor before 2030. The oceanic crust is thin in each region, though sites can be chosen to focus on differences in crust formed from both fast- and slow-spreading ridges. The drill core samples will give scientists an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the architecture and formation of the ocean crust as well as the petrological nature of the oceanic Moho — which will help ground truth many important aspects of plate tectonics theory. Alongside this, the samples will also be used to explore the bottom limit of Earth life among other research interests. With this long-sought goal to sample the boundary between crust and mantle within reach with the <i>Meng Xiang</i>, we advocate for the development of an international collaboration⁶ around this shared goal in the spirit of ‘mission Moho’. International scientists will be welcome to join the drilling expeditions and to share the samples for their research following a moratorium similar to the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP).</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143736622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased frequency of multi-year El Niño–Southern Oscillation events across the Holocene","authors":"Zhengyao Lu, Anna Schultze, Matthieu Carré, Chris Brierley, Peter O. Hopcroft, Debo Zhao, Minjie Zheng, Pascale Braconnot, Qiuzhen Yin, Johann H. Jungclaus, Xiaoxu Shi, Haijun Yang, Qiong Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01670-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01670-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, whether in warm or cold phases, that persist for two or more consecutive years (multi-year), are relatively rare. Compared with single-year events, they create cumulative impacts and are linked to extended periods of extreme weather worldwide. Here we combine central Pacific fossil coral oxygen isotope reconstructions with a multimodel ensemble of transient Holocene global climate simulations to investigate the multi-year ENSO evolution during the Holocene (beginning ~11,700 years ago), when the global climate was relatively stable and driven mainly by seasonal insolation. We find that, over the past ~7,000 years, in proxies the ratio of multi-year to single-year ENSO events increased by a factor of 5, associated with a longer ENSO period (from 3.5 to 4.1 years). This change is verified qualitatively by a subset of model simulations with a more realistic representation of ENSO periodicity. More frequent multi-year ENSO events and prolonged ENSO periods are being caused by a shallower thermocline and stronger upper-ocean stratification in the Tropical Eastern Pacific in the present day. The sensitivity of the ENSO duration to orbital forcing signals the urgency of minimizing other anthropogenic influence that may accelerate this long-term trend towards more persistent ENSO damages.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143736752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expansion of aquatic vegetation in northern lakes amplified methane emissions","authors":"Jinying Liu, Huabing Huang, Xuejiao Hou, Lian Feng, Xuehui Pi, Ethan D. Kyzivat, Yunlin Zhang, Samuel G. Woodman, Linling Tang, Xiao Cheng, Peng Gong","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01667-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01667-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Aquatic vegetation contributes to lake methane emissions, but changes in aquatic vegetation in northern (&gt;40° N) lakes remain unknown, hindering evaluations of its importance in estimating lake emissions. Here we use Landsat imagery to monitor aquatic vegetation (mainly emergent and floating vegetation) in 2.7 million northern lakes from 1984 to 2021. Vegetation was observed in 1.2 million lakes, with a total maximum vegetation area of 12.0 × 10⁴ km², a mean vegetation occurrence of 1.68 ± 3.8% and a greenness of 0.66 ± 0.05. From the 1980s–1990s to 2010s, significant (<i>P</i> &lt; 0.05) increases in maximum vegetation area (+2.3 × 10⁴ km²) and vegetation occurrence (+73.7%) were observed and 72.5% of lakes experienced higher greenness. Vegetation expansion was affected by the temperature in sparsely populated regions, whereas lake area and fertilizer usage played vital roles in densely populated areas. The methane emission estimate that includes contributions from both aquatic vegetation and open water (1.31 [0.73, 1.89] Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) is 13% higher than that calculated for open water (1.16 [0.63, 1.68] Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹). The long-term net increase in total methane emissions including aquatic vegetation is 125% higher than that of open water due to vegetation expansion. This highlights the necessity of incorporating aquatic vegetation in estimates of methane emissions from northern lakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143723126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flow laws for ice constrained by 70 years of laboratory experiments","authors":"Sheng Fan, Ting Wang, David J. Prior, Thomas Breithaupt, Travis F. Hager, David Wallis","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01661-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01661-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flow laws for ice predict rates of deformation (strain) and are fundamental to modelling glacier and ice-sheet dynamics. Here we apply Bayesian inference to laboratory measurements accumulated over 70 years to constrain flow laws for ice-sheet modelling. At low strains, commonly used flow laws—derived from individual experimental datasets with narrow stress, temperature and grain-size ranges—fail to capture the full complexity of ice behaviour. We show that a multicomponent flow law that sums strain rates from different deformation mechanisms is needed to capture grain-size and temperature sensitivities observed in the full set of experiments. This multicomponent flow law is applicable to natural scenarios where the anisotropy of ice is weak or where the deformation kinematics differ from those that formed the crystallographic preferred orientation, making the ice more viscous. Low-strain flow laws, including this multicomponent flow law, have limited validity at high strain, where viscosity evolves and anisotropy develops, making ice less viscous. A one-component, grain-size insensitive flow law gives a reasonable fit to high-strain experimental data and is better suited to modelling the large-scale flow behaviour of ice sheets.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143723127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}