Landslides最新文献

{"title":"Investigating landslide data balancing for susceptibility mapping using generative and machine learning models","authors":"Yuhang Jiang, Wei Wang, Lifang Zou, Yajun Cao, Wei-Chau Xie","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02352-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02352-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the development and application of machine learning, significant advances have been made in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, due to challenges in actual field landslide investigations, current landslide susceptibility mapping is usually characterized by insufficient landslide samples (positive samples) and low reliability of non-landslide samples (negative samples). Considering Lianghe County in Yunnan Province, China, as an example, this paper aims to research the effectiveness of three oversampling models in generating positive samples for landslides: Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN), Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), and the traditional Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) algorithms. Additionally, three machine learning methods, including 1D Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (CNN-LSTM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) classifiers, are used for landslide susceptibility assessment. We also devise a non-landslide data (negative samples) screening method utilizing a self-trained support vector machine within a semi-supervised framework. The results show that by training on the dataset after negative sample screening, the AUC values for the 1D-CNN-LSTM, RF, and GBDT models have shown significant improvement, increasing from (0.778, 0.869, 0.849) to (0.837, 0.936, 0.877). Compared with the original training set, the prediction accuracy of the three machine learning models is improved after training on the augmented data by CTGAN, GAN, and SMOTE models. The RF model, augmented with 200 positive samples generated by CTGAN, achieves the highest prediction accuracy in the study (AUC = 0.962). The 1D CNN-LSTM model achieves its highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.953) when augmented with 200 positive samples from GAN. Similarly, the GBDT model reaches its highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.928) when augmented with 200 positive samples created by SMOTE. In addition, the spatial distribution of data indicates that the data generated by the generative adversarial model exhibits higher diversity, which can be used for landslide susceptibility assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of non-seismic fatal landslides in China from 2010 to 2022","authors":"Zhuoyang Li, Meihuan Yang, Haijun Qiu, Tao Wang, Mohib Ullah, Dongdong Yang, Tianqing Wang","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02362-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02362-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landslides represent a major global natural disaster, often leading to severe consequences, including substantial loss of life and property. However, research on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of fatal landslide events across different climate regions and their association with precipitation remains limited. In this study, we compiled a database of non-seismic fatal landslides in China from 2010 to 2022 to examine their spatiotemporal distribution and relationship with precipitation. From 2010 to 2022, China experienced a total of 710 fatal landslide events, causing 5158 fatalities. The data revealed a declining trend in both the number of fatal landslides and associated fatalities, with the number of fatal landslides demonstrating a recurring cycle of 3–4 years marked by continuous decreases within each cycle. The initial year of a new cycle witnessed a significant increase in the number of fatal landslides, suggesting a periodic occurrence, which is related to El Niño. The central subtropical humid region recorded the highest number of fatal landslide events, attributed to its highest annual precipitation. The trend in fatal landslides closely corresponded with variations in precipitation, increasing in spring and summer and decreasing in autumn and winter. The cumulative frequency distributions of fatal landslides and fatalities followed a power-law distribution, with a sharp decline observed when exceeding a certain value, indicating a deflection effect. Despite the low population density, the plateau climate region has the highest risk of life loss among all climate regions. Understanding the spatial distribution of non-seismic fatal landslides can significantly aid in formulating more effective disaster prevention and mitigation policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to: The Fuyang shallow landslides triggered by an extreme rainstorm on 22 July 2023 in Zhejiang, China","authors":"Qing Lü, Junyu Wu, Zhenghua Liu, Zhongxuan Liao, Zihao Deng","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02343-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02343-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From mixed to hybrid facies volcanic debris avalanche at Colima Volcano: sedimentology and numerical modeling as evidence of transport and emplacement mechanisms","authors":"Matteo Roverato, Lucia Capra","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02335-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02335-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Numerous partial collapses of Colima Volcano have occurred in its history, accompanied by the emplacement of volcanic debris avalanche deposits (VDADs). The collapse that generated the Tonila VDAD (T-VDAD; ~ 1 km³; ~ 15Ka cal. BP) occurred during “wet” paleoclimatic conditions in a high humidity environment, and water within the volcanic edifice, which played a significant role in the volcano’s instability and avalanche transport. This study aims to provide new data on the processes involved in the transport and emplacement mechanisms of debris avalanches based on a detailed granulometric and microtextural characterization and numerical modeling. In general, T-VDAD exhibited massive dynamic behavior during its transport, without segregation process, although some variation of the grains-size occurs from proximal to distal reaches from the source. At microscopic level, evidence suggests particle–particle interactions of rapid, high-energy, high velocity collisional nature, promoting comminution, which increases the fines content with distance. The general high content of fine material into the T-VDAD, combined with a significant water content within the mass before the collapse, due to partial edifice saturation, may have contributed to enhance its mobility. The T-VDAD mobility is here tested with the Titan2d numerical model; results show important paleo-topography implications and that the Coulomb frictional model with basal friction angles similar to previously tested cases best fits the areal propagation of the T-VDAD, confirming that, despite the fluid content that enhanced downslope transformation, the flow still behaved as a homogeneous and incompressible continuum with energy dissipation concentrated within its base.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early warning of landslides based on statistical analysis of landslide motion characteristics and AI Earth Cloud InSAR processing system: a case study of the Zhenxiong landslide in Yunnan Province, China","authors":"Bingquan Li, Yongsheng Li, Ruiqing Niu, Tengfei Xue, Huizhi Duan","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02350-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02350-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landslides, as a common natural disaster, pose a significant threat to human society and the natural environment, including loss of life, economic damage, and environmental destruction. Effective landslide early warning is key to reducing these negative impacts. However, current warning methods face two major challenges: one is the reliance on static threshold judgments, which not only easily leads to false and missed alarms but also cannot adapt to complex and changing natural conditions. The second is the lack of ground data support in areas with complex terrain, which greatly limits the application range and accuracy of traditional warning methods. To overcome these challenges, this study designed an efficient processing system for Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) based on the (Artificial Intelligence) AI Earth Cloud platform, integrated with the Comprehensive Standardized Deformation Index (CSDI) approach, to provide an early warning analysis for the Zhenxiong landslide in Yunnan Province, China on January 22, 2024. Utilizing the cloud platform for rapid generation of deformation rates and selection of characteristic deformation points to reflect landslide trends, and applying the CSDI method for time-displacement curve analysis, enabled a fast and accurate landslide early warning. The research results show that the method proposed in this study can effectively warn of landslide events, significantly improving the accuracy and practicality of the warning. By combining InSAR technology with the CSDI model, this study not only addresses the challenges faced by traditional methods but also provides new insights and solutions in the field of landslide early warning, demonstrating the great potential of technological innovation in natural disaster management.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shear constitutive model for various shear behaviors of landslide slip zone soil","authors":"Zongxing Zou, Yinfeng Luo, Yu Tao, Jinge Wang, Haojie Duan","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02345-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02345-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil constitutive models are widely investigated and applied in soil mechanical behaviors simulation; however, the damage evolution process of soil with various shear deformation behaviors was rarely studied. This study introduces a novel shear constitutive model for slip zone soil considering its damage evolution process. Firstly, an innovative method for determining the shear stiffness is proposed to assess the damage degree of slip zone soil during shear deformation. Further, a damage evolution model based on the log-logistic function is derived to characterize the damage evolution process of slip zone soil, and a new shear constitutive model based on the damage evolution process is subsequently proposed. Both the damage evolution model and the shear constitutive model are verified by the ring shear test data of the slip zone soil from the Outang landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China. Compared to the traditional peak-solving constitutive model based on the Weibull distribution, the proposed shear constitutive model has the distinct advantage of describing not only the brittle (strain softening) mechanical behavior but also the ductile and plastic hardening mechanical behavior of soil. In summary, this method offers a rapid determination of the damage evolution process and the shear behavior constitutive relationship of slip zone soil in landslides.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142225067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic fragmentation of intact rock blocks and its influence on mobility: insights from discrete element analysis","authors":"Zhenyu Liu, Lijun Su, Bin Wang, Shuaisheng Miao, Hongyan Tian","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02349-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02349-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rockslides at high elevations often transform into rock avalanches due to fragmentation, posing a significant threat. However, the underlying mechanism for the high mobility of rock avalanches remains unclear. The discrete element method is employed to simulate the process of blocks varying in rock strength moving on an inclined plane varying in slope angle, impacting the horizontal plane and subsequently spreading. The internal damage distribution, velocity profile, granular agitation, and energy conversion are analyzed. The results indicate multistyle fragmentation modes, including sliding friction fragmentation, compressive collision fragmentation, and bending tensile fragmentation. Rock strength and slope angle influence the final fragmentation phenomenon and degree of fragmentation by altering the weights of different fragmentation modes. A non-monotonic and segmented relationship between the degree of fragmentation and friction coefficient is found, which appears to be induced by the competitive relationship between positive and negative feedback effects on mobility. When only impact fragmentation occurs, despite the boost in horizontal momentum facilitating the transport of fragments, the negative feedback effect on mobility caused by impact fragmentation energy consumption plays a dominant role. Basal fragmentation occurs under specific combinations of rock strength and slope angle, causing a rock avalanche in a shear-dominated dense flow state with low internal disturbance. At this point, the positive feedback effect on mobility caused by the basal fragmentation-induced unique flow structure takes the lead. This study highlights the contribution of flow regime changes induced by fragmentation to energy conversion, thereby affecting the mobility of rock avalanches.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"203 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142196998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the failure mechanisms of the 2017 Santa Lucía landslide, Patagonian Andes, using remote sensing and 3D numerical modelling techniques","authors":"Jaspreet Singh, Sergio A. Sepúlveda","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02346-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02346-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The occurrences of large rock slides often result in catastrophic debris flow within high mountain environments. Discontinuity intersected blocks meeting kinematic conditions stemming from deglaciation-related damage can be triggered by external factors, leading to massive rock slides with a significant downstream hazard. This study presents a comprehensive analysis underlining the mechanism and evolution of the failure during the 2017 Santa Lucía landslide, Patagonian Andes, Chile, utilizing remote sensing and numerical modelling. Due to the remote location, aerial photogrammetry was used to unravel the structural and geomorphological configuration, and four discontinuity sets were identified. Based on colour-shaded relief and slope kinematic analysis, it was found that the failure is governed by combinations of three different discontinuity sets. The failure in the crown portion is complex due to resulting planar and wedge surfaces, whereas in the toe region, the failure is governed by the wedge formation between bedding and other joint set. To further examine its mechanism and evolution, rigid block numerical models were developed in 3DEC to reproduce the failure with real topography and joint parameters. The maximum displacement was observed in the same topographical region where the actual failure occurred, thus conforming to the role of discontinuities in the evolution of the catastrophic failure. Acting on a reduced strength due to rock damage, the modelled slope boosts the instability leading to higher displacements along bonding surfaces with similar attributes as observed in the field. A detailed methodology is discussed regarding coupling remote sensing and 3D numerical modelling for detailed insights into the failure mechanism of the landslides. Overall, our results demonstrate that the Santa Lucía rock slide is a structurally controlled failure where joints provided kinematic freedom, favoured by long-term rock slope damage due to deglaciation.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Displacement residuals reveal landslide regime shifts","authors":"Lorenzo Nava, Antoinette Tordesillas, Guoqi Qian, Filippo Catani","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02353-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02353-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite significant progress in the development of advanced technologies for detecting and monitoring unstable slopes, accurately predicting catastrophic landslides remains a challenge. To tackle this challenge, our research integrates advanced prediction models and granular systems theory to provide insights into regime shifts within slow-moving deep-seated landslide dynamics. Our approach is designed to discern exceptional departures from historical landslide dynamics. The approach leverages the “group dynamics,” crucial for identifying precursory failure indicators, according to the generic dynamics of the precursory failure regime in granular systems. We select three different monitored slow-moving landslides as test cases. We employ an error correction cointegration vector autoregression model together with an exogenous regressor to encode historical spatiotemporal landslide dynamics and predict displacement at multiple locations by considering the historical landslide motion and relationship with external triggers. Displacement residuals are obtained by computing the difference between predicted and measured displacement for a given historical calibration time window. Threshold values for the displacement residuals are determined by analyzing the historical distribution of these residuals. Lastly, persistence in time of the threshold exceedance and the number of monitoring points that exceed the threshold at the same time are considered to encode the group dynamics. This approach offers several advantages, including the effective identification of critical regime shifts, adaptability, and transferability, and it introduces regime shift information into local landslide early warning systems. This approach can enhance confidence in the resultant alert, particularly when integrated with conventional alert systems, thereby improving the reliability of landslide warning systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are the historically known landslide events really the biggest? An insight using dendrogeomorphology","authors":"Karel Šilhán","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02354-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02354-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The construction of the magnitude-frequency relationship is one of the key bases for the estimation of landslide hazard. However, data on past landslide occurrence are mostly from archival sources, and it is assumed that only the largest events are recorded. This situation may result in a critical underestimation or overestimation of the resulting landslide hazard. Therefore, in this study, chronological and spatial parameters were verified using dendrogeomorphic methods for six selected landslides for which at least one reactivation was historically known. The selected tree-ring-based parameters were thus compared between historically known events and other events that were identified using dendrogeomorphic reconstruction. In total, disturbed trees were analyzed, and growth disturbances were identified from their tree-ring series, from which landslide reactivations (including historically known ones) were reconstructed. The results suggest that for half of the landslides studied, the historically known event can indeed be assumed to have been the largest in area over the time period covered by the tree-ring data. However, for some of these landslides, the results suggest that the magnitude of movement (the rate of rotation of the landslide blocks) was significantly smaller than historically known. Conversely, for landslides whose reactivated area was smaller than that of historically known landslides for all unknown events, the results suggest that the magnitude of movement was significantly larger. In the case of only one landslide, the results suggest that the historically known event was one of the smallest, and most of the previously unknown reactivations (revealed by dendrogeomorphic analysis) were larger in area with greater rates of movement. The results thus provide new and original insight into the issue of the size of historically known landslide reactivations.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}