Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Roots Dominate Over Extraradical Hyphae in Driving Soil Organic Carbon Accumulation During Tropical Forest Succession","authors":"Xiaolin Chen,&nbsp;Zhijian Mou,&nbsp;Jing Zhang,&nbsp;Yue Li,&nbsp;Wenjia Wu,&nbsp;Tao Wang,&nbsp;Xiaomin Zhu,&nbsp;Donghai Wu,&nbsp;Daniel F. Petticord,&nbsp;Dafeng Hui,&nbsp;Hans Lambers,&nbsp;Jordi Sardans,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Hai Ren,&nbsp;Jun Wang,&nbsp;Zhanfeng Liu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70499","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70499","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Plant roots and their mycorrhizal symbionts regulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in tropical forests, where succession-driven shifts in mycorrhizal associations alter carbon allocation patterns. However, the relative contributions of roots versus extraradical mycorrhizal hyphae to SOC accumulation and decomposition across forest succession remain unclear. Using a 2-year isotopic ingrowth-core field experiment along a tropical forest chronosequence (70–400 years), we quantified the roles of roots and extraradical hyphae in new SOC accumulation and priming effects. After 2 years, roots contributed nearly four times more to SOC accumulation than hyphae across tropical forest succession. Roots enhanced new SOC accumulation while suppressing the positive priming effect on native SOC, leading to a net gain of 1.6 mg C g⁻¹ soil yr.⁻¹, predominantly as particulate organic carbon. In contrast, extraradical hyphae had a marginal effect, contributing only 0.4 mg C g⁻¹ soil yr.⁻¹. Root-driven SOC input peaked in early succession, whereas hyphal contributions remained consistent. Our findings highlight the dominant role of roots—rather than mycorrhizal hyphae—in SOC accumulation and stabilization during tropical forest succession, emphasizing the need to incorporate root traits into management strategies to enhance SOC sequestration, particularly in tropical forests under increasing land-use pressures.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Disruption to Restoration: Global Impacts of Soil Salinity and Its Mitigation Strategies on Ecosystem Nitrogen Cycling","authors":"Nathan O. Oduor,&nbsp;Ahmed S. Elrys,&nbsp;Manal A. Alnaimy,&nbsp;Tracy Opande,&nbsp;Di Feng,&nbsp;Yves Uwiragiye,&nbsp;Xiaoqian Dan,&nbsp;Shuirong Tang,&nbsp;Tong-bin Zhu,&nbsp;Lei Meng,&nbsp;Jinbo Zhang,&nbsp;Christoph Müller","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70487","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70487","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Salinity impairs soil health by disrupting microbial activity and altering soil physicochemical properties, ultimately undermining ecosystem resilience and productivity. Yet, the effect of salinity and its mitigation strategies on soil nitrogen (N) cycling and plant ammonium and nitrate uptake and N use efficiency is not well established on a global scale. Through a meta-analysis of 3422 paired observations from 309 publications, we found that salinity significantly alters soil N dynamics across multiple pathways. It inhibited the nitrification process by reducing microbial biomass, leading to a substantial accumulation of ammonium (+145%) and nitrite (+203%), while significantly suppressing biological N fixation (−82%). These shifts significantly increased plant uptake of ammonium but reduced that of nitrate and total N, ultimately contributing to a decline in crop yield by 9.5%. Accumulated ammonium in soil also increased ammonia volatilization by 158%. The effect of salinity on soil N availability was context-specific, exhibiting greater effects under high salinity levels, especially in natural ecosystems, arid zones, and alkaline soils. Contrastingly, salinity mitigation treatments led to significant improvements across multiple N pathways. They enhanced soil N pools, including increased biological N fixation and available and total N concentrations. These changes supported greater plant N uptake, resulting in increased N use efficiency and crop yield. However, these benefits were accompanied by a significant increase in nitrous oxide emissions by 80%, indicating a trade-off between environmental impacts and productivity gains. These effects of salinity mitigation treatments on N cycling were more pronounced under the application of organic and mineral fertilizers, as well as crop growth promoters. Collectively, our findings indicate that while salinity appears to impair N cycling by reducing microbial biomass and limiting plant N assimilation, these effects are reversible through mitigation measures. However, further investigation is required to develop salinity mitigation approaches that concurrently minimize nitrous oxide emissions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limitation of Maize Potential Yield by Phosphorus at the Global Scale","authors":"B. Ringeval,&nbsp;J. Demay,&nbsp;J. Helfenstein,&nbsp;M. Kvakić,&nbsp;A. Mollier,&nbsp;M. Seghouani,&nbsp;T. Nesme,&nbsp;J. S. Gerber,&nbsp;N. D. Mueller,&nbsp;S. Pellerin","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70485","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70485","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Phosphorus (P) is known as a major limiting factor of crop yields at the global scale. Previous estimates of the global P limitation are either based on statistical approaches or on complex global gridded crop models. Both failed to distinguish between P and the other limiting factors. Global gridded crop models, despite their complexities, omitted key mechanisms such as soil P dynamics or plant adjustments to P limitation (e.g., change in root:shoot ratio or in shoot P concentration). Thus, current approaches fail to quantify the contribution of P limitation to the global yield gap. Here, we developed a simple but mechanistic model (called GPCROP) that simulates the interactions between plant growth and soil P at a daily time step, all other factors being assumed non-limiting. The model explicitly represents key mechanisms such as the replenishment of the soil P solution by more stable soil P pools, the diffusion of P in soil, and plant adjustments to P limitation. We found that soil available P greatly limits the global maize potential production, even when that limitation was strongly alleviated by plant adjustment mechanisms. With and without these adjustments, maize global production would decrease by 78.9% (std = 17.3) and 92.7% (std = 7.4), respectively, compared to its potential production. We also found that the beginning of the growing season is a key period for P limitation as roots, not yet developed, cannot sustain the plant P demand. This suggests that earlier studies based on a comparison between annual averages of soil supply versus plant demand are not appropriate for assessing P limitation. Considerable uncertainties remain in our approach, and we especially stress the need to use global datasets of soil iron and aluminum (hydr)oxides, currently in development, to constrain the spatial variation of some key parameters driving the P concentration of the soil solution.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12439092/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aboveground Productivity Shapes the Active Soil Microbiome Across China","authors":"Jieying Wang,&nbsp;Fazhu Zhao,&nbsp;Liyuan He,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Xu,&nbsp;Zhenghu Zhou,&nbsp;Chengjie Ren,&nbsp;Guiyao Zhou,&nbsp;Yaoxin Guo,&nbsp;Jun Wang,&nbsp;Sha Zhou,&nbsp;Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70497","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70497","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Soil microbes are the planet's most abundant, diverse, and functionally vital organisms, yet only a small portion of these microbes actively drive soil processes. While resource availability is known to influence microbial physiological traits under multiple soil processes, how aboveground resource input structures the spatial distribution of the soil active microbiome remains virtually unknown. Here, we report the results from a continental standardized soil sampling at 601 sites across major biomes in China. We measured the proportion of the active microbiome (SAM%) using 5-cyano-2,3-ditolyl tetrazolium chloride (CTC) staining by flow cytometry and simultaneously evaluated their main environmental drivers. On average, &lt; 2% of all microbes constitute the active soil microbiome. Forests supported the most active soil microbiomes (&gt; 2%), while cropland harbored the lowest (&lt; 1%). Aboveground productivity, peaking in tropical warmer and wetter regions, was the major environmental factor explaining variation in the active soil microbiome. Our study suggests that a less productive planet may result in drastic reductions in the active soil microbiome with consequences for supporting ecosystem function and biogeochemical cycles under climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Millennial Genetic Resilience of Baltic Diatom Populations Disturbed in the Past Centuries","authors":"Alexandra Schmidt,&nbsp;Sarah Bolius,&nbsp;Anna Chagas,&nbsp;Juliane Romahn,&nbsp;Jérôme Kaiser,&nbsp;Helge W. Arz,&nbsp;Miklós Bálint,&nbsp;Anke Kremp,&nbsp;Laura S. Epp","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70467","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70467","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Little is known about the genetic diversity and stability of natural populations over millennial time scales, although the current biodiversity crisis calls for heightened understanding. Marine phytoplankton, the primary producers forming the basis of food webs in the oceans, play a pivotal role in maintaining marine ecosystems health and serve as indicators of environmental change. This study examines the genetic diversity and shifts in allelic composition in the diatom species <i>Skeletonema marinoi</i> over ~8000 years in the Baltic Sea by analyzing chloroplast and mitochondrial genomes. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) demonstrates the stability and resilience of genetic composition and diversity of this species across millennia in the context of major climate events. Accelerated change in allelic composition is observed from historical periods onwards, coinciding with times of intensifying human activity, like the Roman Empire, the Viking Age, and the Hanseatic Age, suggesting that anthropogenic stressors have profoundly impacted this species for the last two millennia. The data indicate a very high natural stability and resilience of the genomic composition of the species and underscore the importance of uncovering genomic disruptions caused by human impact on organisms, even those not directly exploited, to better predict and manage future biodiversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12439084/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Functional Dimension Reveal Impacts of Non-Native Fishes on Native Fishes and Ecosystem Functionality","authors":"Zhice Liang,&nbsp;Donald A. Jackson,&nbsp;Jiashou Liu,&nbsp;Chuanbo Guo","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70501","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70501","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anthropogenic-mediated invasions of non-native species are leading to biodiversity loss in many trophic groups, with specific impacts on a wide range of ecosystem functions and services. However, the impacts of non-native species on native species and ecosystem multifunctionality are not well understood, particularly due to the lack of long-term studies that focus on the analysis of functional and phylogenetic diversities. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning nearly 80 years from Lake Erhai, China, we assessed the impact of non-native fishes on the multidimensional diversity of native fishes, as well as the cascading effects on the multifunctional components of the ecosystem, including productivity, decomposition, and average multifunctionality. Over time, the multidimensional diversity of non-native fishes steadily increased, whereas that of native species declined markedly. Concurrently, both ecosystem productivity and average multifunctionality exhibited significant upward trends. Long-term invasion by non-native fishes was significantly negatively correlated with the multidimensional diversity of native fishes. A consistent convergence–divergence–convergence pattern was observed in trait spaces and in functional and phylogenetic community patterns of overall fish communities. Ecosystem multifunctionality increased with non-native fish functional diversity, though this positive relationship became negative at higher diversity levels. In contrast, native fish functional diversity and environmental factors—including average water level, Secchi depth, and annual precipitation—were consistently negatively associated with multifunctionality. These findings underscore the importance of integrating a functional perspective in biodiversity monitoring and management to enhance our understanding of, and foster more effective strategies for addressing, the long-term impacts of non-native species on native species and ecosystem multifunctionality.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145068680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifts in Genome Size and Energy Utilization Strategies Sustain Microbial Functions Along an Aridity Gradient","authors":"Xiaojun Wang,&nbsp;Wancai Wang,&nbsp;Lei Deng,&nbsp;Ting Li,&nbsp;Shilong Lei,&nbsp;Lu Zhang,&nbsp;Lirong Liao,&nbsp;Zilin Song,&nbsp;Guobin Liu,&nbsp;Chao Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70498","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70498","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Microbes acquire energy to sustain their survival and function through the decomposition of organic carbon (C) or by oxidizing atmospheric trace gases (e.g., H₂, CO, CH₄). However, how these two microbial energy-acquisition strategies change along environmental gradients and the underlying mechanisms are unclear. This study investigated the energy strategies and genomic traits of soil microbiomes along a natural aridity gradient, ranging from semi-humid forests to arid deserts. By analyzing 374 metagenome-assembled genomes from 13 microbial phyla, we found that the most prevalent microbes are metabolically versatile aerobes that use atmospheric trace gases to support aerobic respiration, C fixation, and N, P, and S cycling. Soil microbes adapt genomic traits associated with reduced energy expenditure in more arid soils, including smaller genome sizes, lower GC content, and fewer 16S rRNA gene copies. Microbial communities in diverse arid habitats are capable of utilizing organic compounds and the oxidation of trace gases (e.g., H₂, CO, CH₄, and H₂S) as energy sources. However, the utilization of organic energy decreased while reliance on trace gas oxidation increased with increasing aridity. Higher consumption rates of H₂, CO, and CH₄ in desert soils from ex situ culture experiments confirmed that increased aridity stimulates microbial oxidation of atmospheric trace gases. This shift in energy utilization was strongly correlated with declining soil organic C levels. As organic C decreased along the aridity gradient, the abundance of trace gas oxidizers (both specialized and multi-gas oxidizers) increased significantly, while that of non-oxidizers declined. Trace gas oxidizers exhibited smaller genomes, lower 16S rRNA operon copy numbers, and slower predicted growth rates, indicative of oligotrophic lifestyles. In contrast, copiotrophic non-oxidizers had larger genomes and faster growth rates. These findings reveal that microbial communities adapt their genomic traits and energy-acquisition strategies to sustain functionality across aridity gradients, enhancing our understanding of soil microbiome responses to climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145074165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-Term Human Disturbance Accelerates Soil Carbon Loss in Earth's Driest Ecosystems","authors":"Hua Zhang,&nbsp;Ganghua Li","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70489","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Drylands cover over 41% of Earth's terrestrial surface and support nearly 38% of the global population, yet they have long been overlooked in global carbon cycle assessments due to their low net primary productivity (Chen et al. <span>2024</span>). Despite this, drylands store substantial soil organic carbon (SOC), often deeply buried and stabilized by vegetation and microbial communities adapted to arid conditions. In hyperarid deserts, deep-rooted plants such as Alhagi sparsifolia create vertical SOC stratification, with labile particulate organic carbon (POC) near the surface and persistent mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) at depth (Zhao et al. <span>2025</span>). This deep carbon pool is a slow-cycling reservoir that can sequester carbon for centuries, making drylands potentially important carbon sinks despite low productivity. However, intensifying human disturbances, biomass harvesting, burning, and irrigation pose increasing risks to the stability of these carbon stocks (Ali and Xu <span>2025</span>; Chen et al. <span>2024</span>; Delcourt et al. <span>2025</span>). The fate of the more stable microbial-derived carbon and its mineral associations under chronic disturbance remains poorly understood.</p><p>Recent work by Gao et al. (<span>2025</span>), published in Global Change Biology, provides valuable new insights through a rare 16-year field experiment along the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert, one of the world's driest and most fragile ecosystems. Their study applies disturbances mimicking local human activities, seasonal biomass harvest, fire, and artificial irrigation, to reveal how long-term anthropogenic pressure drives SOC loss. The study site, a desert–oasis transition zone, is stabilized by perennial shrubs like <i>Alhagi sparsifolia</i>, which also provide forage for local herders during spring and autumn harvests. Vegetation burning and artificial floodwater channeling are common disturbances whose impacts on SOC were unclear before this work.</p><p>Starting in 2008, Gao et al. (<span>2025</span>) applied five treatments annually: control (no disturbance), spring harvest, autumn harvest, fire, and irrigation simulating flood events. Each 30 × 50 m plot was buffered to prevent cross-contamination. This uncommon long-term, consistent disturbance experiment allowed a detailed investigation of chronic impacts in a hyperarid environment. In 2024, the team sampled plant biomass, litter, fine roots, and soils to 150 cm depth at six intervals. SOC was fractionated into POC (&gt; 53 μm) and MAOC (&lt; 53 μm). Plant-derived carbon was traced using lignin phenol biomarkers, and microbial-derived carbon quantified via amino sugars from fungal and bacterial residues. Soil mineralogy, enzyme activities, microbial biomass, and community composition from metagenomic sequencing were also measured, enabling a comprehensive mechanistic view of SOC dynamics.</p><p>Results showed consistent SOC depletion across all disturbance ","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70489","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145058014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal Niche Modulates Species Interaction Under Thermal Fluctuations","authors":"Shih-Fan Chan,&nbsp;Sheng-Feng Shen","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70491","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70491","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global environmental change is reshaping thermal environments by increasing mean temperatures and altering diurnal temperature range (DTR) in complex, region-specific ways. Climate change, deforestation, and urbanization influence DTR with varying effects. How species with different daily temporal niches respond to such changes remains largely unexplored, particularly regarding interspecific interactions. We synthesize emerging evidence and develop a theoretical framework integrating thermal performance curves with temporal niche theory to address this critical knowledge gap. Our analysis shows that larger DTRs decrease the optimal mean temperatures for diurnal species, while increasing them for nocturnal species. Contrary to conventional views that temporal partitioning reduces competition, we show that DTR changes alter exploitative competition between temporally segregated species sharing common resources. This mechanism operates in diverse systems, from carrion competition between necrophagous insects to growth competition between plants with different photosynthetic pathways. Our framework provides mechanistic insights into how DTR changes affect biodiversity through altered competitive interactions and highlights the need to incorporate these dynamics into vulnerability assessments and conservation planning in the Anthropocene.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145043811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting Forest Tree Leaf Phenology Under Climate Change Using Satellite Monitoring and Population-Based Genomic Trait Association","authors":"Markus Pfenninger,&nbsp;Liam Langan,&nbsp;Barbara Feldmeyer,&nbsp;Linda Eberhardt,&nbsp;Friederike Reuss,&nbsp;Janik Hoffmann,&nbsp;Barbara Fussi,&nbsp;Muhidin Seho,&nbsp;Karl-Heinz Mellert,&nbsp;Thomas Hickler","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70484","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.70484","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Leaf phenology, a critical determinant of plant fitness and ecosystem function, is undergoing rapid shifts due to global climate change, yet its complex genetic and environmental drivers remain incompletely understood. Understanding the genetic basis of phenological adaptation is crucial for forecasting forest responses to a changing climate. Here, we integrate multi-year satellite-derived phenology from 46 <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> (European beech) populations across Germany with a population-based genome-wide association study to dissect the environmental and genetic drivers of leaf-out day (LOD) and leaf shedding day (LSD). We show that environmental factors, particularly temperature forcing and water availability, are the primary drivers of LOD variation, while LSD is influenced by a more complex suite of climatic cues. Our genomic analysis identifies candidate genes associated with LOD and LSD, primarily linked to circadian rhythms and dormancy pathways, respectively. Furthermore, genomic prediction models incorporating these loci accurately reconstruct past phenological dynamics, providing a powerful framework to forecast forest vulnerability and adaptation to future climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70484","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145038642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}