Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Resilience Using Earth Observation Data: Identifying Consensus and Limitations Across Metrics","authors":"Katharina Runge,&nbsp;Marlee Tucker,&nbsp;Thomas W. Crowther,&nbsp;Camille Fournier de Laurière,&nbsp;Emilio Guirado,&nbsp;Lalasia Bialic-Murphy,&nbsp;Miguel Berdugo","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70115","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Resilience is a key feature of ecosystem dynamics reflecting a system's ability to resist and recover from environmental perturbations. Slowing down in the rate of recovery has been used as an early-warning signal for abrupt transitions. Recent advances in Earth observation (EO) vegetation data provide the capability to capture broad-scale resilience patterns and identify regions experiencing resilience loss. However, the proliferation of methods for evaluating resilience using EO data has introduced significant uncertainty, leading to contradictory resilience estimates across approximately 73% of the Earth's land surface. To reconcile these perspectives, we review the range of methods and associated metrics that capture aspects of ecosystem resilience using EO data. Using a principal component analysis, we empirically test the relationships between the most widely used resilience metrics and explore emergent patterns within and among the world's biomes. Our analysis reveals that the 10 resilience metrics aggregate into four core components of ecosystem dynamics, highlighting the multidimensional nature of ecosystem resilience. We also find that ecosystems with slower recovery are more resistant to drought extremes. Furthermore, the relationships between resilience metrics vary across the world's biomes and vegetation types. These results illustrate the inherent differences in the dynamics of natural systems and highlight the need for careful consideration when evaluating broad-scale resilience patterns across biomes. Our findings provide valuable insights for identifying global resilience patterns, which are critically needed to inform policy decisions and guide conservation efforts globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70115","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Greening Major Contributed by Climate Change With More Than Two Times Rate Against the History Period During the 21th Century","authors":"Hao Zhang,&nbsp;Zengyun Hu,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Jianfeng Li,&nbsp;Qianqian Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaowei Zheng","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70126","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Future variations of global vegetation are of paramount importance for the socio-ecological systems. However, up to now, it is still difficult to develop an approach to project the global vegetation considering the spatial heterogeneities from vegetation, climate factors, and models. Therefore, this study first proposes a novel model framework named GGMAOC (grid-by-grid; multi-algorithms; optimal combination) to construct an optimal model using six algorithms (i.e., LR: linear regression; SVR: support vector regression; RF: random forest; CNN: convolutional neural network; and LSTM: long short-term memory; transformer) based on five climatic factors (i.e., Tmp: temperature; Pre: precipitation; ET: evapotranspiration, SM: soil moisture, and CO₂). The optimal model is employed to project the future changes in leaf area index (LAI) for the global and four sub-regions: the high-latitude northern hemisphere (NH), the mid-latitude NH, the tropics, and the mid-latitude southern hemisphere. Our results indicate that global LAI will continue to increase, with the greening rate expanding to 2.25 times in high-latitude NH by 2100 against the 1982–2014 period. Moreover, RF shows strong applicability in the global and NH models. In this study, we introduce an innovative model GGMAOC, which provides a new optimal model scheme for environmental and geoscientific research.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Response of Carbon Uptake to Soil Moisture Stress: Adaptation to Climatic Aridity","authors":"Giulia Mengoli,&nbsp;Sandy P. Harrison,&nbsp;I. Colin Prentice","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70098","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The coupling between carbon uptake and water loss through stomata implies that gross primary production (GPP) can be limited by soil water availability through reduced leaf area and/or stomatal conductance. Ecosystem and land-surface models commonly assume that GPP is highest under well-watered conditions and apply a stress function to reduce GPP as soil moisture declines. Optimality considerations, however, suggest that the stress function should depend on climatic aridity: ecosystems adapted to more arid climates should use water more conservatively when soil moisture is high, but maintain unchanged GPP down to a lower critical soil-moisture threshold. We use eddy-covariance flux data to test this hypothesis. We investigate how the light-use efficiency (LUE) of GPP depends on soil moisture across ecosystems representing a wide range of climatic aridity. ‘Well-watered’ GPP is estimated using the sub-daily P model, a first-principles LUE model driven by atmospheric data and remotely sensed vegetation cover. Breakpoint regression is used to relate daily β(θ) (the ratio of flux data–derived GPP to modelled well-watered GPP) to soil moisture estimated via a generic water balance model. The resulting piecewise function describing β(θ) varies with aridity, as hypothesised. Unstressed LUE, even when soil moisture is high, declines with increasing aridity index (AI). So does the critical soil-moisture threshold. Moreover, for any AI value, there exists a soil moisture level at which β(θ) is maximised. This level declines as AI increases. This behaviour is captured by universal non-linear functions relating both unstressed LUE and the critical soil-moisture threshold to AI. Applying these aridity-based functions to predict the site-level response of LUE to soil moisture substantially improves GPP simulation under both water-stressed and unstressed conditions, suggesting a route towards a robust, universal model representation of the effects of low soil moisture on leaf-level photosynthesis.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70098","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improved Modeling of Vegetation Phenology Using Soil Enthalpy","authors":"Xupeng Sun,&nbsp;Ning Lu,&nbsp;Miaogen Shen,&nbsp;Jun Qin","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70116","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Many vegetation phenological models predominantly rely on temperature, overlooking the critical roles of water availability and soil characteristics. This limitation significantly impacts the accuracy of phenological projections, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. We proposed a new approach incorporating soil enthalpy—a comprehensive metric integrating soil moisture, temperature, and texture—to improve phenological modeling. Using an extensive dataset combining FLUXNET observations, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), and meteorological data across the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we analyzed the relationship between soil enthalpy and vegetation phenology from 2001 to 2020. Our analysis revealed significant temporal trends in soil enthalpy that corresponded with changes in leaf onset date (LOD) and leaf senescence date (LSD). We developed and validated a new soil enthalpy-based model with optimized parameters. The soil enthalpy-based model showed particularly strong performance in autumn phenology, improving LSD simulation accuracy by at least 15% across all vegetation types. For shrub and grassland ecosystems, LOD projections improved by more than 12% compared to the temperature-based model. Future scenario analysis using CMIP6 data (2020–2054) revealed that the temperature-based model consistently projects earlier LOD and later LSD compared to the soil enthalpy-based model, suggesting potential overestimation of growing season length in previous studies. This study establishes soil enthalpy as a valuable metric for phenological modeling and highlights the importance of incorporating both water availability and soil characteristics for more accurate predictions of vegetation phenology under changing climatic conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Plant–Soil Feedbacks Explain the Spread Potential of a Plant Invader Under Climate Warming and Biocontrol Herbivory","authors":"Yan Sun,&nbsp;Daniele Silvestro,&nbsp;Gregor H. Mathes,&nbsp;Marcel G. A. van der Heijden,&nbsp;Heinz Müller-Schärer","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70110","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Plant–soil feedbacks (PSFs) can contribute to the success of invasive plants. Despite strong evidence that plant genetic traits influence soil microbial communities and vice versa, empirical evidence exploring these feedbacks over evolutionary timescales, especially under climate change, remains limited. We conducted a 5-year field study of the annual invasive plant, <i>Ambrosia artemisiifolia</i> L., to examine how selection under climate warming and biocontrol insect herbivory shapes plant population genetics, soil properties, and microbial communities. After four generations under warming and herbivory, we collected seeds of the F₄ plant populations together with their conditioned soil for a common garden PSF experiment to explore how resulting PSFs patterns are influencing the performance and spread potential of <i>Ambrosia</i> under changing environmental conditions. This is especially relevant because our recent predictions point to a northward spread of <i>Ambrosia</i> in Europe and Asia under climate change, outpacing the spread of its insect biocontrol agent. We discovered that warming and herbivory significantly but differentially altered plant genetic composition and its soil microbial communities, with less pronounced effects on soil physicochemical properties. Our results indicate that both herbivory and warming generated negative PSFs. These negative PSFs favored plant growth of the seeds from the persistent soil seed bank growing in the conditioned soil under insect herbivory, and by this maintaining the <i>Ambrosia</i> population genetic diversity. They also enhanced the spread potential of warming-selected plant offspring, especially from warmer (southern) to colder (northern) climates. This can be explained by the observed decrease in soil pathogens occurrence under insect herbivory and by the especially strong genetic changes in plant populations under climate warming. Our findings provide insights into how climate warming and biocontrol management affect eco-evolutionary interactions between invasive plant populations and their soil environments, which are critical for predicting invasion dynamics in the context of global change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Importance of Ditches and Canals in Global Inland Water CO2 and N2O Budgets","authors":"Teresa Silverthorn,&nbsp;Joachim Audet,&nbsp;Chris D. Evans,&nbsp;Judith van der Knaap,&nbsp;Sarian Kosten,&nbsp;José Paranaíba,&nbsp;Quinten Struik,&nbsp;Jackie Webb,&nbsp;Wenxin Wu,&nbsp;Zhifeng Yan,&nbsp;Mike Peacock","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70079","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ditches and canals are omitted from global budgets of inland water emissions, despite research showing them to be emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here, we synthesize data across climate zones and land use types to show, for the first time, that global ditches emit notable amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Ditches had higher per-area emissions of CO₂ and N₂O than ponds, lakes, and reservoirs, likely due to high nutrient inputs. Preliminary upscaling showed that the inclusion of ditches would increase global inland water CO₂ emissions by 0.6%–1% and N₂O emissions by 3%–9%. Trophic state and climate influenced N₂O emissions, while CO₂ emissions had complex drivers difficult to disentangle at the global scale. This research highlights the importance of including ditches in global inland water GHG budgets and informs more accurate reporting of anthropogenic emissions in national inventories.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70079","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Convergent Strategies for Leaf Traits in Tree Species From Divergent Habitats","authors":"Hanfeng Xu,&nbsp;Yu Song,&nbsp;Yun-Hong Tan,&nbsp;Dashan He,&nbsp;Yuchuan Yang,&nbsp;Peter M. van Bodegom,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas,&nbsp;Yingji Pan,&nbsp;Lei Chen","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70108","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Plant trait expressions and their trade-offs reflect the responses and long-term ecological adaptation to environmental gradients. However, how such expressions and trade-offs help plants to acclimate to a new environment remains poorly understood, which is a fundamental preset for plants' survival under a global change scenario. By comparing the trait–trait relationships of 4403 tree species from different climatic regions and the variation in trait trade-offs of 746 tree species that have been transplanted to a tropical botanical garden for several decades, our results reveal convergent but consistent alteration in trait–trait relationships of trees transplanted from different climatic regions to a common environment. The convergent trends enhance the capability of tree species in buffering the impacts of climate change through allocating more resources to growth and tolerance. We propose that altered trait–trait relationships may be the key mechanisms that underlie the long-term ecological stability and resilience of tree species.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Timescale Matters: Finer Temporal Resolution Influences Driver Contributions to Global Soil Respiration","authors":"Benjamin Laffitte,&nbsp;Tao Zhou,&nbsp;Zhihan Yang,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais,&nbsp;Jinshi Jian,&nbsp;Ni Huang,&nbsp;Barnabas C. Seyler,&nbsp;Xiangjun Pei,&nbsp;Xiaolu Tang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70118","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the dynamics of soil respiration (<i>R</i>_s) and its environmental drivers is crucial for accurately modeling terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, current methodologies often lead to divergent estimates and rely on annual predictions that may overlook critical interactions occurring at seasonal scales. A critical knowledge gap lies in understanding how temporal resolution affects both <i>R</i>_s predictions and their environmental drivers. Here, we employ deep learning models to predict global <i>R</i>_s at monthly (MRM) and annual (ARM) scales from 1982 to 2018. We then consider three main drivers potentially affecting <i>R</i>_s, including temperature, precipitation, and a vegetation proxy (leaf area index; LAI). Our models demonstrate strong predictive capabilities with global <i>R</i>_s estimation of 79.4 ± 5.7 Pg C year⁻¹ for the MRM and 78.3 ± 7.5 Pg C year⁻¹ for ARM (mean ± SD). While the difference in global estimations between both models is small, there are notable disparities in the spatial contribution of dominant drivers. The MRM highlights an influence of both temperature and LAI, while the ARM emphasizes a dominant role of precipitation. These findings underscore the critical role of temporal resolution in capturing seasonal variations and identifying key <i>R</i>_s-environment relationships that annual models may obscure. High temporal resolution <i>R</i>_s predictions, such as those provided by the MRM, are essential for capturing nuanced seasonal interactions between <i>R</i>_s and its drivers, refining carbon flux models, detecting critical seasonal thresholds, and enhancing the reliability of future Earth system predictions. This work highlights the need for further research into monthly and seasonal <i>R</i>_s variations, as well as higher timescale resolutions, to advance our understanding of ecosystem carbon dynamics in a rapidly changing climate.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Postglacial Recolonization of the Southern Ocean by Elephant Seals Occurred From Multiple Glacial Refugia","authors":"Andrew A. Berg,&nbsp;Megan Askew,&nbsp;Frederik V. Seersholm,&nbsp;Alexander J. F. Verry,&nbsp;A. Rus Hoelzel,&nbsp;Andreanna Welch,&nbsp;Karen Greig,&nbsp;Richard Walter,&nbsp;Michael Knapp,&nbsp;Axel Barlow,&nbsp;Johanna L. A. Paijmans,&nbsp;Jonathan M. Waters,&nbsp;Michael Bunce,&nbsp;Kate McDonald,&nbsp;Sue O'Connor,&nbsp;Brenda Hall,&nbsp;Paul L. Koch,&nbsp;Carlo Baroni,&nbsp;Maria Cristina Salvatore,&nbsp;Patrick Faulkner,&nbsp;Simon Y. W. Ho,&nbsp;Nicolas J. Rawlence,&nbsp;Mark de Bruyn","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70101","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Southern Ocean is warming more rapidly than other parts of our planet. How this region's endemic biodiversity will respond to such changes can be illuminated by studying past events through genetic analyses of time-series data sets, including historic and fossil remains. Archaeological and subfossil remains show that the southern elephant seal (<i>Mirounga leonina</i>) was common along the coasts of Australia and New Zealand in the recent past. This species is now mostly confined to sub-Antarctic islands and the southern tip of South America. We analyzed ancient seal samples from Australia (Tasmania), New Zealand and the Antarctic mainland to examine how southern elephant seals have responded to a changing climate and anthropogenic pressures during the Holocene. Our analyses show that these seals formed part of a broader Australasian lineage, comprising seals from all sampled locations from the south Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Our study demonstrates that southern elephant seal populations have dynamically altered both range and population sizes under climatic and human pressures over surprisingly short evolutionary timeframes for such a large, long-lived mammal.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70101","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Narrow Margins: Aerobic Performance and Temperature Tolerance of Coral Reef Fishes Facing Extreme Thermal Variability","authors":"Grace O. Vaughan,&nbsp;Daniel M. Ripley,&nbsp;Matthew D. Mitchell,&nbsp;Dain McParland,&nbsp;Jacob L. Johansen,&nbsp;Holly A. Shiels,&nbsp;John A. Burt","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70100","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is driving rising average sea temperatures and the intensification of thermal variability. Tropical coral reef fishes have evolved under thermally stable conditions to function optimally within a narrow temperature range, with many currently living close to their upper thermal limits. However, recent work has demonstrated that some species possess additional capacity, such as reductions in basal metabolic rates (i.e., ‘plastic floors’), to compensate for the acute effects of thermal challenges when assessed over multigenerational timeframes. In this study, we use the ‘plastic floors and concrete ceilings’ hypothesis to generate and then test predictions regarding the thermal physiology of reef fishes in the world's hottest and most thermally variable coral reef ecosystem (southern Arabian/Persian Gulf). By comparing three species of reef fishes (<i>Scolopsis ghanam</i>, <i>Ecsenius pulcher</i> and <i>Cheilodipterus novemstriatus</i>) from the southern Arabian/Persian Gulf, with an annual temperature range of 18.0°C–36.5°C, to conspecifics from nearby but more thermally benign (~21.0°C–32.0°C) reefs in the Gulf of Oman, we find enhanced upper thermal limits and a broadening of the temperature performance curves for aerobic scope in the Arabian/Persian Gulf, but no evidence for changes in basal metabolic rates (‘plastic floors’). Despite these conserved increases in temperature tolerance, the summer thermal safety margins of Arabian/Persian Gulf fishes were 1.47°C lower than those of conspecifics from the Gulf of Oman, demonstrating that while the temperature tolerance of tropical coral reef fishes is somewhat plastic over multigenerational timeframes, its rate of change is likely insufficient to keep pace with the rising average temperatures and growing thermal variability expected under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70100","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143555085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}