Lewis C. Linker, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Richard Tian, Carl F. Cerco, Isabella Bertani
{"title":"Simulating climate change in a coastal watershed with an integrated suite of airshed, watershed, and estuary models","authors":"Lewis C. Linker, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Richard Tian, Carl F. Cerco, Isabella Bertani","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13185","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13185","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 2020, the Chesapeake Bay Program moved to offset impacts from climate change for the 30-year period from 1995 through 2025 by having its seven watershed jurisdictions (Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia) apply additional nutrient pollutant reduction practices. The climate change assessment was performed with integrated models of the Chesapeake watershed, airshed, and estuary. Scenarios run for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055 estimated effects from the different future climatic conditions. This article presents the results of that assessment and is intended to provide a guide to assist other modeling practitioners in assessing climate change impacts in coastal watersheds. Major influences of climate change that were quantified include increases in precipitation volume, potential evapotranspiration, watershed nutrient loads, tidal water temperature, and sea level. Minor influences quantified in the climate change analysis include changes in nutrient speciation and increases in wet deposition of nitrogen, CO<sub>2</sub>, rainfall intensity, tidal wetland loss, up-estuary salt intrusion, and phytoplankton biomass. To offset climate change impacts from 1995 to 2025 on water quality, the scenarios indicate an additional 2.3 million and 0.3 million kg of nitrogen and phosphorus per annum, respectively, will need to be reduced beyond what is called for in the Chesapeake Total Maximum Daily Load.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"499-528"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dongseok Yang, Seoro Lee, Jonggun Kim, Seongjoon Kim, Bernard Engel, Kyoungjae Lim
{"title":"Development of web-based hydrograph analysis tool considering seasonality and flow condition","authors":"Dongseok Yang, Seoro Lee, Jonggun Kim, Seongjoon Kim, Bernard Engel, Kyoungjae Lim","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13178","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13178","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Baseflow was proven to be the most unpredictable component of streamflow through various research. However, the recent method for estimating baseflow is due to the development of theoretical and computational techniques. This paper attempted to develop a fully automated baseflow separation system based on a recursive digital filter with an optimization algorithm for the single separation. Most of the previous baseflow separation methods use a single set of <i>a</i> parameter and BFI<sub>max</sub> (the maximum value of baseflow index), which can underestimate or overestimate the baseflow; however, the system developed in this study estimates multiple optimized <i>a</i> parameters using seasonality and flow conditions and uses them for BFI<sub>max</sub> calculation and baseflow separation. This system derived baseflow results in better understanding of watershed and streamflow tendency characteristics. This study developed a Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool 2020 with a user-friendly interface and new separation method regarding the seasonality and flow conditions with a fully automated python module to optimize <i>a</i> parameters and BFI<sub>max</sub>. The application to the two area show diverse parameter sets and different baseflow according to seasonality and flow conditions representing the flow characteristics. This study could be a fundamental tool for detailed watershed management decisions regarding water security in the dry season or environmental water for aquatic ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"707-724"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138966304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuqin Gao, Li Gao, Yunping Liu, Ming Wu, Zhenxing Zhang
{"title":"Assessment of water resources carrying capacity using chaotic particle swarm genetic algorithm","authors":"Yuqin Gao, Li Gao, Yunping Liu, Ming Wu, Zhenxing Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13182","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13182","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) has been evaluated repeatedly to guide sustainable regional development, with the increasing conflicts over water resources between society and nature. Urban underlying surfaces are constantly changing under the rapid development of urbanization, which has changed the WRCC. The chaotic particle swarm genetic algorithm (CPSGA) is proposed in this study to evaluate the WRCC. It combines the genetic algorithm (GA), chaotic optimization algorithm (COA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), as well as introduces the chaotic mapping of COA and the velocity position update strategy of PSO into the GA framework to strengthen the population quality and improve the algorithm's efficiency. The effectiveness of CPSGA was demonstrated using three typical functions. Nanjing, China, was used as the study area to evaluate the WRCC from 2015 to 2018. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation scores of the WRCC of Nanjing from 2015 to 2018 were up to 0.83. In addition, the CPSGA had better astringency and stability than GA, COA, and PSO. The application indicated that the proposed methodology is feasible, providing a reference for conducting WRCC research elsewhere.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"667-686"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139009518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ryan C. Johnson, Steven J. Burian, Carlos A. Oroza, Carly Hansen, Emily Baur, Danyal Aziz, Daniyal Hassan, Tracie Kirkham, Jessie Stewart, Laura Briefer
{"title":"Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions","authors":"Ryan C. Johnson, Steven J. Burian, Carlos A. Oroza, Carly Hansen, Emily Baur, Danyal Aziz, Daniyal Hassan, Tracie Kirkham, Jessie Stewart, Laura Briefer","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13186","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13186","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. The climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. −27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"687-706"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139008098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Walter K. Dodds, Sophia M. Bonjour, Molly Fisher, Laura J. Krueger, Peter J. Pfaff, Md. Abu Raihan, Olivia Rode
{"title":"A novel index reveals disconnects between recreational harmful algal bloom exposure risks and responses among U.S. states","authors":"Walter K. Dodds, Sophia M. Bonjour, Molly Fisher, Laura J. Krueger, Peter J. Pfaff, Md. Abu Raihan, Olivia Rode","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13181","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13181","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recreational and occupational contact with freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) pose human health and economic risks worldwide. Individual U.S. states control monitoring, reporting, and mitigation of recreational exposure to HABs. We surveyed states to catalog responses to HAB problems. We used this data to develop a state-specific HAB response index (HABRI) and compared it to HAB risks derived from empirical nation-wide data and per capita state environmental management and public health spending. States varied in regulations, reporting, monitoring, communication, and mitigation. The HABRI was not correlated with empirically based risk. Several states had no limits on toxin exposure or limits that were higher than recommended by the USEPA or World Health Organization. Other states did not provide public signage or notification when HABs were occurring and recreation could be hazardous. Increased federal involvement, communication among states, and state and federal legislation could minimize this variation and positively influence responses. We identify best practices for addressing HABs in our study that could provide guidance to authorities in any part of the world while developing new programs or enhancing existing efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"273-286"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138589958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of IgG4-positive plasma cell population in classic Hodgkin lymphoma.","authors":"Beril Guler, Busra Cosanay Tekden, Guven Cetin, Pelin Yildiz, Seval Turna, Omer Uysal, Irmak Sinal","doi":"10.1007/s12308-023-00559-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12308-023-00559-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The effect of IgG4, which constitutes the least of the IgG subclasses, on the pathogenesis and prognosis of lymphoma or solid tumors is one of the research topics of interest in recent years. The role of IgG4, which has been reported to suppress antitumor immunity, in classic Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL), which is recognized by its pathognomonic microenvironment, is not yet clearly known. The aim of this study was to determine IgG4-positive plasma cell density in the cHL microenvironment and to compare it with histopathological and clinical parameters. In addition, the role of the increase in IgG4-positive cells in the development of relapse after treatment was also investigated. A retrospective cross-sectional study. Ninety-four patients with the initial diagnosis of cHL who had no comorbidity or no treatment history and forty-one reactive lymph nodes with follicular hyperplasia findings were included in the study. Three hot-spot areas were identified with reference to the IgG4 sections. Mean IgG4-positive plasmacyte counts and IgG4/IgG ratios were determined and compared with histopathological characteristics. The mean IgG4 + plasma cell count was 33.57 in cHL cases and 47.04 in the control group (p = 0.233). IgG4/IgG ratio was significantly higher in cHL compared with the control group (0.27 vs. 0.21, p = 0.021). The IgG4/IgG ratio was found to be higher in younger patients with classic Hodgkin lymphoma, with a low correlation (p = 0.028, r = - 0.226). There was no relationship with gender, lymph node location, histological subtype, EBV positivity and bone marrow infiltration. It was observed that IgG4/IgG ratio was higher in early-stage patients (p = 0.022). No significant IgG4 + cell increase was detected in the initial diagnosis and relapse slides of six patients who developed relapse after standard treatment, resulting in a cure. Novel therapeutic modalities targeting microenvironmental components have been reported to show dramatic effects, particularly in relapsed or refractory patients. Detailed characterization of the cHL inflammatory milieu will be useful for the identification of alternative targets. IgG4 subclass antibodies, which have been described to have anti-inflammatory effects, may have prognostic significance in a proportion of cHL patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"8 1","pages":"191-197"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85425833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Randall Etheridge, Janire Pascual-Gonzalez, Jacob Hochard, Ariane L. Peralta, Thomas J. Vogel
{"title":"Predicting nitrate exposure from groundwater wells using machine learning and meteorological conditions","authors":"Randall Etheridge, Janire Pascual-Gonzalez, Jacob Hochard, Ariane L. Peralta, Thomas J. Vogel","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13175","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Private groundwater wells can be unmonitored sources of contaminated water that can harm human health. Developing models that predict exposure could allow residents to take action to reduce risk. Machine learning models have been successful in predicting nitrate contamination using geospatial information such as proximity to nitrate sources, but previous models have not considered meteorological factors that change temporally. In this study, we test random forest (regression and classification) and linear regression models to predict nitrate contamination using rainfall, temperature, and readily available soil parameters. We trained and tested models for (1) all of North Carolina, (2) each geographic region in North Carolina, (3) a three-county region with a high density of animal agriculture, and (4) a three-county region with a low density of animal agriculture. All regression models had poor predictive performance (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> < 0.09). The random forest classification model for the coastal plain showed fair agreement (Cohen's <i>κ</i> = 0.23) when trying to predict whether contamination occurred. All other classification models had slight or poor predictive performance. Our results show that temporal changes in rainfall and temperature, or in combination with soil data, are not enough to predict nitrate contamination in most areas of North Carolina. The low level of contamination (<25%) measured during the study could have contributed to the poor performance of the models.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"639-651"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140345818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Remotely sensed imagery reveals animal feeding operations increase downstream dissolved reactive phosphorus","authors":"Andrew Meyer, Zach Raff, Sarah Porter","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13177","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13177","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we use remotely sensed imagery to identify the location and size of animal feeding operations in the Maumee River Watershed, a key drainage area to Lake Erie's Western Basin, which has recently experienced severe harmful algal blooms. We then estimate the relationship between the intensity of animal feeding operations in the watershed and surface water body concentrations of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), the pollutant most responsible for algal growth. We find that stream reaches with relatively larger increases in upstream animal feeding exposure experience significantly higher increases in concentrations of DRP. The average marginal upstream animal feeding operation in the watershed increases downstream DRP concentrations by between 10% and 15%. In contrast, when restricting the analysis to include only permitted operations, coefficient estimates are practically zero and statistically insignificant. Our work presents evidence that the increasing intensity of animal feeding operations contributes to water quality problems. Permitting and identification of animal feeding operations is therefore important for managing runoff and correctly attributing the causes of excess nutrients in surface water bodies.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"60 2","pages":"620-638"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139249584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Editors' choice—Outstanding reviewers—2023","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13180","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The <i>Journal of the American Water Resources Association</i> recognizes the critical role of reviewers in maintaining high standards of the journal and improving the quality of published papers. Starting back in 2020, we have been recognizing those reviewers who have gone above and beyond in providing extensive and comprehensive reviews. The reviewers have been identified by the associate editors during the review process. Our heartfelt thanks to these reviewers for their selfless service to the journal and the scientific community at large.</p><p>John Abatzoglou</p><p>Nick Martin</p><p>Michael Warner</p><p>Shan Zuidema</p><p>Tamie L. Veith</p><p>Jianshi Zhao</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1571"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13180","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138558272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}