Journal of The American Water Resources Association最新文献

{"title":"Subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting in a semiarid watershed","authors":"Patrick D. Broxton,&nbsp;Willem J. D. van Leeuwen,&nbsp;Bohumil M. Svoma,&nbsp;James Walter,&nbsp;Joel A. Biederman","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13147","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13147","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Operational streamflow forecasting is critically important to managers of river basins that supply water, hydropower, and flood protection. While seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs) are important for long-term water resources planning operations, shorter term (e.g., 1–5 weeks) streamflow forecasts are critical for balancing water conservation with flood risk during wet periods. In this study, we designed a streamflow forecasting system with the water resources group at the Salt River Project (SRP), a provider of water and power to millions of customers in central Arizona (AZ), to provide streamflow forecasts for a diverse and operationally important set of watersheds in AZ. The forecast system uses machine learning to make seasonal WSFs, a rainfall–runoff model driven by ensemble meteorological forecasts to make 35-day streamflow forecasts, and an innovative approach to improve the WSFs based on the 35-day streamflow forecasts. This model integration allows for an assessment of the impact of different meteorological forecasts on WSFs, helping SRP to balance water conservation goals with shorter term flood risks. In addition, seasonal WSFs are improved in the early winter when they incorporate the 35-day streamflow predictions. Furthermore, these improvements are larger than when they incorporate 7-day streamflow predictions, demonstrating the value of using subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, &gt;1–2 weeks) forecasts to improve seasonal WSFs in these watersheds.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1493-1510"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115323288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed","authors":"Gopal Bhatt,&nbsp;Lewis Linker,&nbsp;Gary Shenk,&nbsp;Isabella Bertani,&nbsp;Richard Tian,&nbsp;Jessica Rigelman,&nbsp;Kyle Hinson,&nbsp;Peter Claggett","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13144","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13144","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1313-1341"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13144","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116459393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Assessment of Three Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Dano Catchment under Future Climate Conditions","authors":"Yira Yacouba, Bossa Yaovi Aymar, Ngom L. A. L. C. A. Guedji, Hounkpè Jean, Hounkpatin L. Ozias, M. Idrissou, Sintondji O. Luc","doi":"10.12691/ajwr-11-2-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12691/ajwr-11-2-4","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses the impact of future climate change on three water related ecosystem services (WRES) in the Dano catchment. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV light was successfully calibrated (NSE = 0.945, R² = 0.945, and KGE= 0.948) and validated (NSE = 0.648, R² = 0.798, and KGE= 0.551) and demonstrated a good agreement between observed and simulated variables. The projected climate change signal in the catchment was analyzed using the WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulations (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M under RCP 4.5) between a refence period (1985-2005) and two future periods (2020-2049 & 2070-2099). Compared to the reference period, both climate models show an increase in temperature of +1.9 to +2.8 °C by 2020-2049, and at the end of the century 3.2 to 5.4 °C. Precipitation trends of + 10 to +30 % in the middle of the century and between +37 to +51.4% towards 2100 are projected. The projected annual discharges change signals show an increase of +25 % to +68 % by 2049, while at the end of the century this increase exceeds +80.65. The simulated hydrological changes were translated into changes in WRES provision (hydropower, domestic water consumption, and ecological flow). The projected discharge increase will translate in an increase of hydropower generation potential but this increase in discharge will not be enough to meet future additional domestic water demand. Domestic water supply will decrease because of population growth. Therefore, the projected increase in future discharge will not be sufficient to counterbalance the additional water demand associated to population development.","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90937319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Office of Water Prediction's Analysis of Record for Calibration, version 1.1: Dataset description and precipitation evaluation","authors":"Greg Fall,&nbsp;David Kitzmiller,&nbsp;Sandra Pavlovic,&nbsp;Ziya Zhang,&nbsp;Nathan Patrick,&nbsp;Michael St. Laurent,&nbsp;Carl Trypaluk,&nbsp;Wanru Wu,&nbsp;Dennis Miller","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13143","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13143","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hydrologic models operated by the National Weather Service call for an accurate, consistent, high-resolution, multi-decade, continental-scale record of hydrometeorological fields to serve as forcing data for model calibration. To serve this purpose, the Analysis of Record for Calibration was developed, and version 1.1 of the dataset is described in this study. Geospatial and scientific requirements, methods used in dataset generation, and input data sources are described. Given the prominent role of precipitation in model calibration, accurate and consistent precipitation is a particularly high priority for the analysis. To evaluate the analysis from this perspective, its daily precipitation is compared with surface observing stations over 43 years. The analysis exhibits low bias compared with other similar products. It also displays nonstationary bias behavior after 2015 due to the lack of a climatological constraint, as well as frequent occurrences of heavy-to-extreme precipitation that are often difficult to verify. These findings should be taken into account when the product is used for model calibration.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1246-1272"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13143","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126010007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Designing Stormwater Drainage Network for Urban Flood Mitigation using SWMM: A Case Study on Dhaka City of Bangladesh","authors":"Siam Alam, A. Rahman, Anika Yunus","doi":"10.12691/ajwr-11-2-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12691/ajwr-11-2-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90076252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate elasticity assessment on groundwater recharge to the Edwards Balcones Fault Zone Aquifer, United States","authors":"Changbing Yang,&nbsp;F. Paul Bertetti","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13142","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13142","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of precipitation, temperature, and groundwater recharge in the recharge zone of the nine basins of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards Balcones Fault Zone Aquifer, which is one of the major groundwater systems in the United States and serves as primary water sources for approximately 1.7 million people in south-central Texas. Datasets of monthly precipitation and average temperature (1895–2019) and groundwater recharge (1934–2019) are used to examine the decadal variability in precipitation, temperature, and groundwater recharge on the annual scale with a normalized 20-year moving average of variance. Climate elasticity (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) of groundwater recharge is estimated to evaluate impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge. The results of this study show that precipitation and temperature variability exhibit decadal cyclic patterns. Elasticity analysis of groundwater recharge indicates that a 1% change in annual precipitation may result in 2%, with a likely range of 0.15%–2.8%, change in groundwater recharge, and a 1% change in annual potential evapotranspiration may lead to −3.3% change in groundwater recharge with a likely range of −8.9% to 4% in the study area. This study suggests that climate elasticity of groundwater recharge may provide an alternative means for evaluating climate impacts on groundwater recharge to an aquifer.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1273-1286"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130268423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins","authors":"Satbyeol Shin,&nbsp;Younggu Her,&nbsp;Yogesh Khare","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13140","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13140","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Low floodplain wetlands such as the Western Everglades in South Florida are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and their water quality and ecosystem functions vary greatly depending on changes in water levels and discharges. The future (i.e., the mid and late 21st century) climate is projected to result in increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which could negatively affect the hydroecological function of the wetlands. Wetland management practices have commonly been implemented to protect wetlands and their functions, but it is not clear whether the current management practices can still be effective in projected climate change scenarios. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff and total phosphorus (TP) of natural (L28 Gap) and managed (L28) wetland watersheds in the Western Everglades. For the assessment, we employed future climate projections made using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) and the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM), a watershed loading model. The WAM was calibrated and validated for the baseline period (2000–2014), and the bias-corrected climate projections were incorporated into the model to project the runoff discharge and TP loads for the near-future (2030–2044) and far-future (2070–2084) periods in two carbon emission scenarios. The modeling results show that the natural wetland watershed would be more vulnerable to projected climate change than the managed wetland watershed. The impact of projected climate change scenarios on daily runoff and TP loads was modulated by water control facilities and practices in the managed watershed, highlighting the significance of watershed management practices for improved water quality under projected climate change. This study demonstrates how the local natural and managed wetland watersheds distinctly respond to the global-scale changes and emphasizes the role of water management practices in wetland basins, which are expected to help develop effective climate change adaptation plans for improved sustainability of wetland systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1549-1568"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126676116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hydro-economic modeling of managed aquifer recharge in the lower Mississippi","authors":"Ahmed A. Ali,&nbsp;Dat Q. Tran,&nbsp;Kent F. Kovacs,&nbsp;Helen E. Dahlke","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13141","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13141","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mississippi Embayment aquifer is one of the largest alluvial groundwater aquifers in the United States. It is being excessively used, located along the lower Mississippi River covering approximately 202,019 km² (78,000 square miles). Annual average groundwater depletion in the aquifer has been estimated at 5.18 billion cubic meters (Gm³) (4.2 million acre-feet) in 1981–2000. However, since 2000, annual groundwater depletion has increased abruptly to 8 Gm³ (2001–2008). In recent years, multi-state efforts have been initiated to improve the Mississippi Embayment aquifer sustainability. One management strategy of interest for preserving groundwater resources is managed aquifer recharge (MAR). In this study, we evaluate the impact of different MAR scenarios on land and water use decisions and the overall groundwater system using an economic model able to assess profitability of crop and land use decisions coupled to the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) hydrogeologic model. We run the coupled model for 60 years by considering the hydrologic conditions from the MERAS model for the years 2002–2007 and repeating them 10 times. We find MAR is not economically attractive when the water cost is greater than $0.05/m³. Groundwater storage is unlikely to improve when relying solely on MAR as groundwater management strategy but rather should be implemented jointly with other groundwater conservation policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1413-1434"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126588039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contribution of Remote Sensing and Geophysical Prospecting (1D) to the Knowledge of Groundwater Resources Burkina Faso","authors":"Faye Moussa Diagne, Biaou Angelbert Chabi, Doulkom Palingba Aimé Marie, Koita Mahamadou, Yacouba Hamma","doi":"10.12691/ajwr-11-2-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12691/ajwr-11-2-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75126045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of streamflow as a covariate in models for predicting daily pesticide concentrations","authors":"Paul L. Mosquin,&nbsp;Jeremy Aldworth,&nbsp;Wenlin Chen,&nbsp;Shanique Grant","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13138","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.13138","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Several models have been developed with streamflow as a covariate for predicting daily pesticide concentrations in surface water systems. Among these models, the SEAWAVE-QEX model has been proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for regulatory assessments. In this paper, the model was modified to include alternative transformations of streamflow data, and to include no streamflow covariates. The predictive performance of the modified models was evaluated and compared with the original SEAWAVE-QEX model using a high frequency sampling dataset that includes 9 sites with 10 years of data from the Atrazine Ecological Monitoring Program. Streamflow transformations evaluated included those in the SEAWAVE-QEX model (short-term and mid-term flow anomalies), reduced models with only short-term flow anomaly or without any flow covariates, normalized Box-Cox transformation of flow, and combinations of normalized Box-Cox and flow anomalies. Loglinear interpolation was also evaluated. The normalized Box-Cox transformation provided best predictive performance and significantly better predictive performance than that of the SEAWAVE-QEX model for a target quantity of regulatory interest, such as the maximum 1-day rolling average (similarly for the maximum 60-day rolling average, but not significantly so). The no-flow covariate model was only slightly worse than Box-Cox. Significant differences in predictive performance of the SEAWAVE-QEX model were detected across sites.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"59 6","pages":"1459-1476"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13138","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128245681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}