根据动态气候条件,通过数据驱动模型加强市政用水需求估算

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Ryan C. Johnson, Steven J. Burian, Carlos A. Oroza, Carly Hansen, Emily Baur, Danyal Aziz, Daniyal Hassan, Tracie Kirkham, Jessie Stewart, Laura Briefer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

不断变化的气候导致降水和气温模式发生变化,这将影响整个美国西部干旱地区的供水、需求和整个市政供水系统的运行。供水预测利用水文模型将气候影响与地表水可用性联系起来,而需求预测通常是估算独立于气候和其他外部因素的用水量。由于人们越来越重视季节性水需求管理,我们以犹他州盐湖城市政供水系统为试验平台,评估了基于计量经济学的简单气候独立模型和复杂的气候敏感数据驱动模型之间的模型精度与复杂性之间的权衡,以平均应对极端干湿气候条件--代表新的气候常态。独立于气候的模型在极端干旱条件下表现较差,预测值分别超过观测到的月度和季节性水量需求的 90% 和 40%,我们将其归因于模型复杂性不足。对气候敏感的模型在所有条件下都表现出更高的准确性,与对气候不敏感的模型相比,普通最小二乘法模型的预测偏差(3.4% 对 -27.3%)和均方根误差(74.0 lpcd 对 294 lpcd)明显减少。对气候敏感的工作流程提高了模型的准确性,并描述了气候与需求之间的相互作用,展示了一种加强水系统管理的新工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. The climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. −27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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