Journal of The American Water Resources Association最新文献

SWAT-MOEA: SWAT Optimization Tool for Decision-Making in Agricultural Production Systems Among Competing Objectives

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70013

Ana C. Cram, Daniel N. Moriasi, Glenn E. Moglen, Jean L. Steiner, Oswaldo F. Aguirre, J. Alan Verser, Zaichen Xiang

{"title":"SWAT-MOEA: SWAT Optimization Tool for Decision-Making in Agricultural Production Systems Among Competing Objectives","authors":"Ana C. Cram, Daniel N. Moriasi, Glenn E. Moglen, Jean L. Steiner, Oswaldo F. Aguirre, J. Alan Verser, Zaichen Xiang","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Identifying agricultural production systems that balance economic viability, conservation of soil and water resources, and a clean environment requires significant time and financial investments. This paper presents the SWAT-MOEA, a user-friendly standalone tool, which couples the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) to determine Pareto optimal solutions for sustainable watershed management within a reasonable timeframe. The SWAT-MOEA is unique compared with existing tools in that it is publicly available for download along with a manual, it is user customizable, and can be used for studies of varying spatial scales from field to very large watersheds and daily to annual temporal scales. This integration enables simultaneous optimization of multiple objectives for existing SWAT projects. The tool identifies the placement of management strategies that achieve optimal trade-offs among competing objectives. Key SWAT-MOEA features include the ability to create and execute management practices directly through the SWAT-MOEA interface and to select objectives that reflect regional priorities. Results are stored in Excel for efficient display. SWAT-MOEA creates and stores Pareto graphs and geospatial maps of suggested solutions. A case study in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed located in Oklahoma is provided to demonstrate its use. The SWAT-MOEA executable and user's manual are available at SWAT-MOEA.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of Future Land Use Variability on Nutrient Loads in a Fast-Urbanizing Landscape

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70009

Andres Lora Santos, Osama M. Tarabih, Mauricio E. Arias, Mark C. Rains, Qiong Zhang

{"title":"Effects of Future Land Use Variability on Nutrient Loads in a Fast-Urbanizing Landscape","authors":"Andres Lora Santos, Osama M. Tarabih, Mauricio E. Arias, Mark C. Rains, Qiong Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Urbanization, driven by population growth, alters watershed hydrology and nutrient runoff. However, the complex interplay between urbanization and nutrients in regional watersheds remains an open question. This study assessed how urbanization affects streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) loads in six diverse Florida watersheds covering an area of 10,600 km<sup>2</sup>. This was carried out by introducing 2070 land use/land cover (LULC) projections to a watershed hydrology/water quality model. We investigated how different levels of urban density, as a proxy for urbanization patterns, affect streamflow and nutrient variability. Results indicate that urban land could increase from 14% to 27% in 2070. This expansion could lead to monthly streamflow increases of 0%–36%, based on watershed and urbanization patterns. Future TP loads could change by −8% to +140%, with decreases attributed to LULC transitions from high-use fertilizer agriculture to low/medium density residential classes. Projected TN loads are more consistent, with simulated changes of −1% to +26%. Among LULC transitions, the largest increases in TP and TN are caused by potential urbanization of freshwater wetlands. This study provides knowledge relevant to regions undergoing similar urbanization trends, enabling managers to make better land development plans with water quality considerations. It also contributes a detailed modeling framework that can be adopted even with the use of different LULC datasets and software.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation and Diagnosis of Water Resources Spatial Equilibrium Under the High-Quality Development of Water Conservancy

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70014

Tao Dong, Yanqi Wei, Juliang Jin, Ping Zhou, Yong Hu, Menglu Chen, Yuliang Zhou

{"title":"Evaluation and Diagnosis of Water Resources Spatial Equilibrium Under the High-Quality Development of Water Conservancy","authors":"Tao Dong, Yanqi Wei, Juliang Jin, Ping Zhou, Yong Hu, Menglu Chen, Yuliang Zhou","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The development philosophy of water resources spatial equilibrium (WRSE) is a crucial aspect of China's water conservancy strategy. To quantitatively evaluate the WRSE in Chongqing and diagnose obstacle indicators, the WRSE evaluation and diagnostic model was proposed based on coupling coordination degree and subtraction set pair potential (SSPP) from both water supply and demand perspectives. The results showed that economically developed regions in Chongqing were suffering water scarcity and disequilibrium. The WRSE state from excellent to poor was the city cluster of Wuling mountain area in southeastern Chongqing (CSC), the city cluster of the Three Gorges Reservoir area in northeastern Chongqing (CNC), the new area of Chongqing city proper (NAC), and the central urban area of Chongqing (CAC). The obstacle indicators in CAC, NAC, CNC, CSC, districts, and counties were diagnosed by an improved diagnostic method based on SSPP, which can avoid the unreasonable diagnostic result. The evaluation and diagnostic results at different spatial scales can provide a more comprehensive reference for water resources management, and the results are consistent with the actual conditions of Chongqing. Our study can provide insights for WRSE evaluation and the diagnosis of obstacle indicators. It also presents a method that can be applied to other systems, including environmental and resource management, across various spatial scales.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transitioning to Multi-Purpose Reservoirs: Advancing Performance With Forecast-Based Pre-Release Operations 向多用途水库过渡：通过基于预测的释放前操作提高性能

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70005

Mingda Lu, Venkatesh Merwade

{"title":"Transitioning to Multi-Purpose Reservoirs: Advancing Performance With Forecast-Based Pre-Release Operations","authors":"Mingda Lu, Venkatesh Merwade","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates various operational strategies to enhance flood control in reservoirs, addressing the challenges of balancing flood mitigation and water supply demands in multi-purpose reservoirs. A comprehensive framework is introduced, which includes a pre-release model categorizing reservoirs based on system characteristics and simulates multiple operational scenarios. Using historical data and simulations for 11 reservoirs managed by the USACE Louisville District, the effectiveness of different operational policies is evaluated. Key findings indicate that pre-release operations, particularly with a 72-h lead time, significantly improve reservoir flood control by reducing end-of-flood water levels and shortening the recovery times for design seasonal flood events. A 24-h pre-release policy is identified as a practical solution, offering substantial improvements with low adverse impacts, making it suitable for regular implementation. Additionally, other operational strategies are assessed, and pre-release is suggested as the optimal approach for facilitating the transition of reservoirs from single to multi-purpose functions. This study underscores the importance of integrating flood forecasting with reservoir operational strategies, advocating for the refinement of release policies to account for unique reservoir conditions. These insights provide a foundation for optimizing reservoir operations, contributing to improved flood and water resource management.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Alternative Computational Approach Improving Hydrologic Design of Low-Impact Development Facilities

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70010

Yiping Guo

{"title":"Alternative Computational Approach Improving Hydrologic Design of Low-Impact Development Facilities","authors":"Yiping Guo","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Low-impact development (LID) facilities such as bioretention cells, infiltration trenches, permeable pavements, rainwater harvesting systems, and green roofs are widely used in North America to reduce the detrimental environmental impact of urban development. The design-storm approach is commonly used for determining the required sizes of LID facilities. An alternative computational approach was recently developed that uses analytical equations to directly quantify LID facilities' hydrologic performance statistics. These equations enable the convenient sizing of individual LID facilities to achieve desired levels of performance. The main objectives of this commentary are (1) to illustrate how this approach was developed, (2) to demonstrate how this new approach may be used in engineering practice, and (3) to reveal the shortcomings of the conventional approach and demonstrate how the new approach may be used to improve the hydrologic design of LID facilities. Also described in this commentary are the obstacles that may be encountered in the adaptation and implementation of the new approach and what may be done to remove them.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leveraging High-Frequency Sensor Data and U.S. National Water Model Output to Forecast Turbidity in a Drinking Water Supply Basin

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70011

John T. Kemper, Kristen L. Underwood, Scott D. Hamshaw, Dany Davis, Jason Siemion, James B. Shanley, Andrew W. Schroth

{"title":"Leveraging High-Frequency Sensor Data and U.S. National Water Model Output to Forecast Turbidity in a Drinking Water Supply Basin","authors":"John T. Kemper, Kristen L. Underwood, Scott D. Hamshaw, Dany Davis, Jason Siemion, James B. Shanley, Andrew W. Schroth","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As high-frequency sensor networks increasingly enhance data-driven models of water quality, process-based models like the U.S. National Water Model (NWM) are generating accessible forecasts of streamflow at increasingly dense scales. There is now an opportunity to combine these products to construct actionable water quality forecasts. To that end, we couple streamflow forecasts from the NWM to a gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm (LightGBM) trained on 5+ years of high-frequency monitoring data to forecast in-stream turbidity levels in the Catskill Mountains, NY, USA. Results indicate LightGBM models are capable of relatively skillful predictions, which enable robust forecasts for 1–3 days lead times. LightGBM models offer improvements over a simplified linear model across the entire forecast horizon, and more spatially complex models are more resilient to error at shorter lead times (1–3 days). Moreover, interpretation of model features emphasizes high flows as a driver of turbidity in the region. Results suggest that interpretable, flexible, and efficient machine learning algorithms can produce capable water quality forecasts from streamflow forecasts and expand understanding of process dynamics. The use case illustrated here—to our knowledge the first NWM-based water quality forecast—underscores the potential to employ the NWM to expand national water quality forecasting capacity and can overall serve as a guide for similar efforts in basins across the country.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143533503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Stakeholder-Driven Approach for Enhancing Streamflow Monitoring Networks in Louisiana, USA

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70007

Emad Habib, Mohamed ElSaadani, Brian Miles, Robert Miller, Ehab Meselhe, Mead Allison, Kelin Hu

{"title":"A Stakeholder-Driven Approach for Enhancing Streamflow Monitoring Networks in Louisiana, USA","authors":"Emad Habib, Mohamed ElSaadani, Brian Miles, Robert Miller, Ehab Meselhe, Mead Allison, Kelin Hu","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective streamflow monitoring networks are crucial for flood mitigation planning and water management operations. In Louisiana, USA, extreme rainfall, flat topography, and coastal-inland interactions necessitate enhancements to the sparse existing monitoring resources. This study introduces a stakeholder-driven approach to designing a streamflow monitoring network by integrating local expertise with geospatial process-based criteria. Our approach combines stakeholder input, gathered via web-based geospatial applications, with an automated scoring system. The system is based on hydrologic and geomorphic factors to prioritize gage placements while balancing regional needs and resource constraints. Implemented as part of the Louisiana Watershed Initiative (LWI), the network design addresses monitoring gaps, particularly in ungauged large watersheds and streams with complex flow regimes. The study highlights the importance of incorporating local knowledge into technical designs to support flood mitigation planning, real-time flood forecasting, and hydrodynamic model calibration. This framework can be adopted by other flood-prone regions worldwide to enhance flood monitoring and mitigation planning efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Calibrating Streamflow and Hydrological Processes in Geological Regions Using a Combined Soft and Hard Calibration Approach

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70008

José Manuel Rodríguez-Castellanos, Alejandro Sánchez-Gómez, Katrin Bieger, Silvia Martínez-Pérez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Eugenio Molina-Navarro

{"title":"Calibrating Streamflow and Hydrological Processes in Geological Regions Using a Combined Soft and Hard Calibration Approach","authors":"José Manuel Rodríguez-Castellanos, Alejandro Sánchez-Gómez, Katrin Bieger, Silvia Martínez-Pérez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Eugenio Molina-Navarro","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Conventional catchment-scale models are often calibrated using a single set of parameters and considering only statistical performance, overlooking hydrological aspects of great relevance for a realistic modeling outcome. The main objectives of this study were to set up a hydrological model in the Tagus River headwaters (Spain) with the new version of the soil and water assessment tool and to develop a novel calibration and evaluation procedure to simulate the hydrological processes realistically, particularly focusing on groundwater contribution. The model was parameterized at three geological regions, and its performance was evaluated in representative sub-catchments, addressing both soft and hard calibration to focus not only on daily streamflow but also on two hydrological indices: the runoff coefficient and the groundwater contribution. Results were then evaluated at the reservoir catchment level (two large reservoirs constitute the catchment outlet) and further validated on reservoir inflows. After this innovative procedure that incorporates a zonal calibration and a comprehensive model evaluation, a very good statistical performance was obtained, with NSE, <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>, and PBIAS values (monthly) of 0.86%, 0.88%, and 2.5% for the Entrepeñas Reservoir inflows, and of 0.89%, 0.91%, and −8.5% for Buendía Reservoir. This performance was achieved while maintaining realistic values for the hydrological indices, providing a robust representation of the hydrological processes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Effects of Unpaved Roads on Instream Sediment: Patterns and Challenges for Monitoring

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70006

Robert Al-Chokhachy, Geoffrey Poole, Cameron Thomas, Carl Saunders, Brett Roper, Shane Hendrickson, Cory Davis, Kyle Crapster, Eric Archer

{"title":"The Effects of Unpaved Roads on Instream Sediment: Patterns and Challenges for Monitoring","authors":"Robert Al-Chokhachy, Geoffrey Poole, Cameron Thomas, Carl Saunders, Brett Roper, Shane Hendrickson, Cory Davis, Kyle Crapster, Eric Archer","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite > 700,000 km of unpaved roads in the western United States, our knowledge of how roads impact instream sediment is unclear. We combined two studies, including (1) a regional analysis linking stream habitat data from a large-scale monitoring program with road density data to identify generalizable relationships between roads and streambed sediment distributions and (2) a targeted field study to evaluate the responses of streambed and suspended sediment collected at locations above and below road–stream connection points to better understand the consistency of responses. Regional analyses indicated a significant positive relationship between road density and fine sediment in pool tails and a significant negative relationship between road density and median particle size. We also found significant relationships between landscape, climate, and local covariates and streambed sediment metrics, where most of the parameter estimates of the covariates were equal to or stronger than those for road density. Field studies suggested higher suspended sediment levels across the seasonal hydrologic regime where roads were open to travel year-round. However, sediment responses to road–stream connection points varied by metric and site. Together, our results indicated negative relationships between increasing road densities and sediment size distributions, but detecting road effects at site scales will be challenging given the effects of covariates that can overwhelm sediment signals.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hydroclimate Projections and Effects on Runoff at National Wildlife Refuges in the Semiarid Western United States

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学

Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13251

Brian S. Caruso, Lauren Eng, Andy R. Bock, Nicholas Hall

{"title":"Hydroclimate Projections and Effects on Runoff at National Wildlife Refuges in the Semiarid Western United States","authors":"Brian S. Caruso, Lauren Eng, Andy R. Bock, Nicholas Hall","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13251","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study evaluated hydroclimate projections and effects on runoff at National Wildlife Refuges in a semiarid region of the western United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6) using mean air temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT) inputs and runoff (RO) output from a national application of a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). An ensemble of statistically downscaled global circulation models for two future emissions scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and 5) were assessed at the refuges for the years 1950–2099. TAVE, PPT, and RO and departures from mean baseline conditions were analyzed from MWBM hydrologic response units within refuge boundaries. Seasonal results were evaluated across four periods: historical (1951–1969), baseline (1981–1999), 2050 (2041–2059), and 2080 (2071–2089). Projected TAVE increases for all refuges and time periods, whereas PPT and RO are much more variable across ecoregions. Using the high emission scenario, summer mean monthly TAVE increases range from 4.8°C to 5.5°C by 2080. Summer mean monthly PPT departures vary from −5.7 to 3.9 mm (up to 14% decrease), with decreases at 41% of refuges. Summer RO departures range from −16.7 to 0.2 mm (up to 60% decrease), with decreases at 71% of refuges. Under the same emission scenario, winter PPT and RO increase at most refuges by 2080. These variable departures will create substantial challenges for future conservation management in the region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0