Journal of The American Water Resources Association最新文献

{"title":"The Levee Love Affair Decades Later, Still Stormy: Confronting the Accreditation Crisis and Charting Solutions","authors":"Erin K. Duhon,&nbsp;Kaleigh M. Yost,&nbsp;Christine J. Kirchhoff,&nbsp;Daniel Brent,&nbsp;Audrey Everett,&nbsp;Joseph Bellini,&nbsp;Raj Cibin,&nbsp;Anil Kumar Chaudhary,&nbsp;Peter Stempel,&nbsp;Alfonso Mejia","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70156","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While levees safeguard over 23 million people and trillions of dollars in property, a profound, largely unrecognized flood risk crisis is emerging. Because approximately 75% of surveyed levees remain unaccredited, millions live behind levee systems that may not meet minimum federal safety standards. To overcome this accreditation bottleneck, this commentary translates research-driven opportunities into a prioritized, three-phase operational roadmap. First and most critically, regulators must transition from deterministic models to risk-based probabilistic frameworks that leverage economic indicators to guide local interventions. In the mid-term, engineering practices must integrate technical innovations, such as non-invasive geophysical field testing methods and artificial intelligence, alongside hybrid green-gray infrastructure solutions. Finally, achieving long-term resilience requires embedding transdisciplinary coproduction and design-centered alternatives into local governance. Ultimately, this framework moves beyond ‘check the box’ accreditation toward a holistic understanding of levee performance, equity, and community contexts, offering levee communities, management agencies, regulators, and researchers actionable pathways to safer, more resilient flood protection nationwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70156","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence Overload in England's Water Resources Management Plans: Model Abundance and the Transparency Failure","authors":"Ali Leonard,&nbsp;Anna Murgatroyd,&nbsp;Jaime Amezaga,&nbsp;Richard Blackwell","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70152","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In England's water sector, statutory Water Resources Management Plans (WRMPs) have become increasingly model-led and document heavy. While this expansion is intended to strengthen evidence-based decision-making, transparency, and accountability, in practice it has contributed to a transparency failure: an evidence base that is formally public yet has become increasingly difficult to scrutinize. Drawing on documentary analysis of WRMPs, technical appendices, regional plans, guidance, and consultation materials, we argue that modeling complexity is not only technical but institutional: a vast sea of evidence is fragmented across companies, consultants, regulators, and planning tiers, and uncertainties propagate across long modeling chains. In such conditions, transparency and accountability become formal and procedural rather than functional, undermining confidence in planning outputs that ultimately justify high-cost investment and customer bills. We conclude that reforms focusing only on institutional restructuring may fall short unless they address the governance of modeling evidence, including traceability, accountability, and intelligible communication of uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70152","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Land Use Change in SWAT+: A Novel Application of Scenario Decision Tables","authors":"Lucas Alcamo,&nbsp;Jeff Arnold,&nbsp;Timo Schaffhauser,&nbsp;Natalja Cerkasova,&nbsp;Markus Disse","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70155","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Land use and land cover (LULC) changes significantly impact hydrological processes, yet their dynamic representation in hydrological models remains a challenge. This paper introduces and pioneers the use of the newly implemented capability of SWAT+ to simulate dynamic LULC changes using “land use scenario decision tables”. Traditionally, LULC change assessments in hydrological modeling rely on a static “delta approach,” which often leads to inaccurate parameterization and limitations in capturing the true temporal evolution of hydrological responses. Our novel approach overcomes this limitation by enabling the user to dynamically alter LULC classifications throughout a model run. The functionality is demonstrated through an application to the forest-clearing experiment in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (NH, USA). We compare the results of the dynamic LULC change scenario against scenarios with no LULC change and static LULC change. The dynamic LULC change scenario improves the representation of discharge predictions, with average split KGE increasing to 0.62 versus 0.59 and 0.56 for the static and no LULC scenarios, respectively. While this implementation marks a crucial advancement in integrating dynamic LULC processes into SWAT+, challenges remain, such as incorporating time-varying snow parameters and documenting existing functionalities. This work represents an important step towards more realistic and accurate hydrological simulations under evolving land use conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70155","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Paleo-Hydrological Drought in the South Saskatchewan River Basin: Implications for Water Allocation and Management","authors":"Mohammad Zare,&nbsp;David Sauchyn,&nbsp;David M. Meko","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70154","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in southern Alberta is the only major Canadian watershed where water supplies are effectively fully allocated. This was the first region targeted for land-use and water-supply planning under new provincial legislation. This paper examines water allocation and management in the SSRB from the unique perspective of 900 years of annual river flow in the four major sub-basins. We reconstructed annual runoff from a dense network of 192 ring-width chronologies, many in the headwaters of the runoff-generating sub-basins. We employed a regression approach to building tree-ring models of runoff, where the predictors are principal components that capture the dominant hydroclimate signals in a large set of chronologies. The stepwise regression models performed well over a 54-year calibration period with a mean R² (among all sub-basins) of 0.71. The paleohydrology includes at least five prolonged hydrological drought events over the past nine centuries, with the most persistent occurring between 1840 and 1880. While severe droughts have occurred in recent decades, those of the longest duration predate gauge records. Therefore, dendrohydrological evidence suggests that relying solely on modern streamflow records to inform water management and infrastructure planning in the Canadian Prairies may underestimate future drought risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149048191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Updates and Modernization Efforts for a New Low-Head Dam Fatality Database and Website","authors":"Paige A. Gordichuk,&nbsp;Rollin H. Hotchkiss","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70153","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fatalities occur each year at low-head dams (LHDs) due to the powerful churning of submerged hydraulic jumps. LHDs are small structures that allow water to flow over the crest continuously from bank to bank and are ubiquitous in the United States. They are often used to increase the water depth in a river for irrigation and water supply or to produce hydropower. The purpose of this paper is to increase awareness, promote river safety, and inform remediation efforts at LHDs through an updated database and website documenting fatalities at these structures. The website and database are found at www.lowheaddamfatalities.org. The approach used is based on the work of Kern et al. utilizes modern software. A new method is presented for storing and displaying the LHD fatality data that allows for greater access and increases data reliability. The data are searchable and can be filtered by state, river, and other identifying properties. An additional table is featured on the website to highlight overall statistics by state as a tool for government officials and local groups. Google Sheets now hosts the data for easy updating and sharing to permit periodic updates. User input of fatalities not found in the database is facilitated by an incident report form linked to the database spreadsheet. Mitigation efforts include low-head dam removal or modification using variations of a stepped spillway or vanes attached to the streambed downstream from the low-head dam.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149047921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sediment Vulnerability Ranking for River Basins Across the Contiguous U.S. Using Integrated Biophysical and Social-Ecological Data","authors":"Nicholas A. Sutfin,&nbsp;Allen C. Gellis,&nbsp;Nancy Baker,&nbsp;Christopher H. Conaway,&nbsp;Katherine J. Skalak","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nearly half of streams and rivers in the United States (U.S.) have fair to poor conditions for aquatic ecosystem health as declared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and sediment was identified as a primary factor impairing these waterbodies. We rank sediment vulnerability using physical, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets in 163 4-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes within 18 regions across the contiguous U.S. based on the National Hydrography Dataset. We refer to <i>sediment vulnerability</i> as the potential for excess sediment to adversely impact social-ecological aspects of streams and rivers. Metrics were organized into six variable groups: (1) geomorphic setting, (2) modeled sediment and phosphorus, (3) hydrologic conditions, (4) anthropogenic factors and land use, (5) socioeconomic considerations, and (6) measures of ecosystem sensitivity. Correlations and principal component analysis were used to reduce and select metrics that explained the highest variability across basins. Results from the regional analysis identify basins with higher sediment vulnerability in each region, whereas national results identify hotspots of highly ranked basins in the Midwest and the central U.S. with a concentration of moderately to highly ranked basins in the south-central and southwestern U.S. Indicators of socioeconomic and ecological vulnerability integrated with physical drivers of sediment production help identify important gaps in sediment monitoring and research.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148994466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Rainfall Regime: A Case Study in the Piracicaba River Basin, Brazil","authors":"Ronalton Machado,&nbsp;Tárcio Rocha Lopes,&nbsp;Sérgio Nascimento Duarte,&nbsp;Carlos Trucíos","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70151","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changes in precipitation regimes associated with climate variability and climate change pose significant challenges to water resource management, agriculture, and land-use planning, particularly in socioeconomically strategic regions such as the Piracicaba River Basin, Brazil. This study analyzed precipitation series from 1985 to 2022 using data from 159 regularly spaced grid points across the basin. Pettitt, Mann–Kendall, and Sen non-parametric tests were applied to both annual totals and annual maximum 24 h rainfall. Significant trends were identified in 22 grid points for annual precipitation and in 19 points for annual maximum daily rainfall. Breakpoints were concentrated in the late 1990s and between 2009 and 2012. Annual totals exhibited consistent negative Sen slopes, indicating a cumulative reduction in precipitation. In contrast, extreme daily rainfall showed spatially heterogeneous and lower-magnitude trends, with no evidence of widespread intensification. Declining trends were concentrated near the basin headwaters and the Cantareira Water Supply System, suggesting potential implications for regional water security. Notably, the detected changes preceded the 2013–2015 water crisis in São Paulo. These findings highlight the need for continuous monitoring and adaptive water management strategies under increasing climate variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70151","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148903962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Riverine Flood Forecasting Using Advanced Deep Learning Approaches","authors":"Krishna Panthi,&nbsp;Mostafa Saberian,&nbsp;Vidya Samadi","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70150","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate riverine flood forecasting is crucial for effective river management. This paper utilized the Time-Series Dense Encoder (TiDE), Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS), and Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) to forecast riverine flood and benchmarked their results against Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Each model was implemented with varying forecast lead times for the Proctor Creek–Chattahoochee watershed, Georgia, USA. Additionally, the sensitivity of each model was evaluated by excluding meteorological forcing features one by one to determine how the performance varied across different variables. The time of concentration (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 <mi>c</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {T}_c $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) was incorporated as a physical parameter in the algorithm's lookback window. The trained models were evaluated separately on event-based simulations. The Diebold–Mariano statistical test was utilized for a thorough analysis of performance. Analysis revealed that PatchTST outperformed the other models during moderate-flow regimes while falling behind during extreme flooding events. An 18- to 24-h lookback window was found to be statistically optimal for the models. The sensitivity analysis results indicated that PatchTST was slightly more sensitive to the selected training data features. Incorporating <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 <mi>c</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {T}_c $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> into the lookback window revealed that TiDE and LSTM showed better performance when using a sequence length of 18 h while PatchTST achieved the best results with a 24-h lookback window.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70150","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148904046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Invisible Infrastructure: Ensuring U.S. Federal Water Data Integrity and Continuity for a Non-Stationary Future","authors":"Glenn E. Moglen,&nbsp;Julianne J. Miller,&nbsp;Shirley E. Clark","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70147","url":null,"abstract":"<p>U.S. federal hydrologic datasets and modeling frameworks constitute a foundational public utility, essential for engineering resilient infrastructure in an era of non-stationarity, to maintain public safety and national security. However, recent institutional restructuring and funding shifts have created an unprecedented threat to this “invisible infrastructure.” This commentary examines the consequences of the declining U.S. Geological Survey National Streamgage Network, the administrative delays surrounding the rollout of NOAA Atlas 15, and the destabilization of integrated U.S. federal modeling centers like the National Center for Atmospheric Research. These are examples, but not the complete extent, of U.S. federal data loss and their resultant consequences. These U.S. federal resources fill a unique niche of high-rigor and perpetual observation that neither the commercial sector nor academia can replicate, and serve as a model that other national governments, especially in Europe, are emulating. Drawing on recent analyses of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 15 pilot data, we demonstrate that data erosion can lead to “policy blindness” at a time of large-scale investment in infrastructure upgrades and both compromised public safety and national security. To ensure a resilient future, the engineering profession requires unhindered access to timely, transparent, curated data that only the U.S. federal government can reliably provide.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70147","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Need for Long-Term Monitoring When Assessing Sediment Production of the Black Vermillion River in Northeast Kansas","authors":"Michael E. McNair","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70148","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tuttle Creek Reservoir provides flood control, water supply, wildlife habitat, and recreation for approximately 40% of Kansas residents and has lost 50% of its capacity to sedimentation since 1960. A 2012 study that focused on sediment contributed by the Black Vermillion River (BVR), monitored 18 study banks and 18 cross sections within three BVR subwatersheds (Main Stem [MS], North Fork [NF], and Irish Creek [IC]) between 2007 and 2010. A subsequent study in 2017 estimated future BVR sediment production using the 2012 data. In 2021, this study resurveyed 14 cross sections and 7 study banks at seven of nine study reaches of the 2012 study. It was hypothesized that average annual erosion rates for the entire study period (2007–2021) would differ from previous studies due to a high number (14) of bankfull flows between 2007 and 2010 and channel stabilization since 2010. Between 2007 and 2021, the average annual study bank retreat rate (0.19 m) and increase in top-of-bank cross-sectional area (0.69 m²) of all study reaches were less than between 2007 and 2021 (0.38 m and 1.84 m², respectively). Geomorphic change varied significantly between the three subwatersheds from 2007 to 2021, with some reaches having decreased erosion rates, some having increased, and some experiencing deposition. These differing patterns of change highlight the need for long-term monitoring of individual river channels to better understand channel succession and estimate sediment production.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70148","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}