{"title":"Long-Term Monotonic Trends in Water Budget Components in the Contiguous United States: Insights From Two Hydrologic Models","authors":"Phillip Goodling, Sydney Foks, Jessica Ayers","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70109","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.70109","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70109","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Suhina Deol, Georgine Yorgey, Jonathan Yoder, Kirti Rajagopalan, Michael Brady, Dan Haller, Julie Padowski, Joseph Cook
{"title":"Water Markets, Regulation and Technology: A Survey of Irrigators in Washington State","authors":"Suhina Deol, Georgine Yorgey, Jonathan Yoder, Kirti Rajagopalan, Michael Brady, Dan Haller, Julie Padowski, Joseph Cook","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70091","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.70091","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Water markets hold potential for helping communities in the western United States adapt to water scarcity, but market activity remains low. Reforms to policies and institutions could spur more market activity but could also be politically infeasible if water users opposed them. Improving complementary tools like seasonal forecasts and consumptive use monitoring can help only if the tools are used. We surveyed 248 water users in four sub-basins of the Columbia River in Washington State to measure (a) their existing knowledge of and participation in water markets, (b) their demand for hypothetical future policy changes and (c) their use of these complementary tools. Only half of water rights holders were familiar with the concept of water markets, though participation was relatively high among those who were. Three quarters reported ‘difficulty’ knowing what a fair price for their water right would be, and a majority voted in favor of a hypothetical policy to mandate disclosure of water market transaction prices. A large majority supported repealing relinquishment (i.e., ‘use-it-or-lose-it’) rules. A majority of irrigation district growers said they would advise their Boards of Directors to vote for a 1 year program to lease water out of the district, but to vote against a 5 year ‘dry-year option’ program. Only one-third used long-range (1–7 months) forecasts of precipitation, snowpack, temperature or water availability, and less than a quarter measure their consumptive use.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70091","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Low Streamflows in Massachusetts: Variability Over Space and Time and Relations With Climatic and Basin Variables","authors":"Catherine A. Chamberlin, Glenn A. Hodgkins","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70108","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.70108","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Streamflows in Massachusetts have set record lows in recent years despite generally wetter conditions than during the drought of the 1960s, and the reasons for this are not known. To analyse potential drivers of low streamflows in Massachusetts, six low-flow metrics were computed at 107 streamgages. These metrics represent low-flow magnitude, magnitude normalized to median flows, and duration. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyse the variability of low flows over space and time. Potential explanatory variables were computed using climatic, land use, water use, and basin data. For all low-flow metrics, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) in July–August explained the most variability, with decreasing P/PET largely explained by lower precipitation. Water/wetland area was a significant explanatory variable in all the normalized-magnitude and duration models, with greater area associated with lower normalized magnitudes and with shorter durations of low flows. Human influence (characterized by development, population, water use, and artificial water storage) had mixed effects. Trends from 1983 to 2022 in summer P/PET and human influence have been strongest in the eastern part of the state where the strongest decreases in flows are observed. Low flows in Massachusetts seem to be driven by a combination of low summer precipitation and human effects, though the specific mechanisms of human influence on flow likely vary between basins.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pitamber Wagle, Samuel Jay Oldham, E. James Nelson, Riley C. Hales, Rollin H. Hotchkiss, Daniel P. Ames, Ibrahim Demir, Moiyyad Sufi, Lyle Prince, Karina Larco, Taylor Miskin
{"title":"Integrating Modeled Flood Maps From the National Water Model and Diverse Sources for Enhanced Forecasting and Preparedness","authors":"Pitamber Wagle, Samuel Jay Oldham, E. James Nelson, Riley C. Hales, Rollin H. Hotchkiss, Daniel P. Ames, Ibrahim Demir, Moiyyad Sufi, Lyle Prince, Karina Larco, Taylor Miskin","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70107","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1752-1688.70107","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood mapping is critical for flood forecasting, preparedness, and risk management. In the United States, multiple federal agencies and organizations generate or archive flood inundation maps (FIM) using diverse models, data sources, and standards. The National Water Center (NWC) currently provides the only national-scale operational FIM through its Height above nearest drainage (HAND) -based workflow; however, most other authoritative flood datasets remain isolated and underutilized due to inherent discrepancies in models, formats, standards, and limited accessibility. In this study, we present an integrated relational database accompanied by Python-based tools and workflows that together enable the acquisition of flood maps from multiple agency inventories or models, the generation of baseline HAND maps for corresponding areas, and optimization of FIM datasets for efficient storage, visualization, and cross-model comparison. This framework complements the NWC's operational system by allowing multiple-source FIM integration and evaluation within a unified environment. The functionality is equally applicable at the local level for training, comparison, and teaching practical differences in action between flood models. Leveraging different sources of flood datasets under a common framework enhances confidence in the results and promotes informed action, including improved early warning and response.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70107","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147579742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pitamber Wagle, Samuel Jay Oldham, E. James Nelson, Riley C. Hales, Rollin H. Hotchkiss, Daniel P. Ames, Ibrahim Demir, Moiyyad Sufi, Lyle Prince, Karina Larco, Taylor Miskin
{"title":"Integrating Modeled Flood Maps From the National Water Model and Diverse Sources for Enhanced Forecasting and Preparedness","authors":"Pitamber Wagle, Samuel Jay Oldham, E. James Nelson, Riley C. Hales, Rollin H. Hotchkiss, Daniel P. Ames, Ibrahim Demir, Moiyyad Sufi, Lyle Prince, Karina Larco, Taylor Miskin","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70107","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood mapping is critical for flood forecasting, preparedness, and risk management. In the United States, multiple federal agencies and organizations generate or archive flood inundation maps (FIM) using diverse models, data sources, and standards. The National Water Center (NWC) currently provides the only national-scale operational FIM through its Height above nearest drainage (HAND) -based workflow; however, most other authoritative flood datasets remain isolated and underutilized due to inherent discrepancies in models, formats, standards, and limited accessibility. In this study, we present an integrated relational database accompanied by Python-based tools and workflows that together enable the acquisition of flood maps from multiple agency inventories or models, the generation of baseline HAND maps for corresponding areas, and optimization of FIM datasets for efficient storage, visualization, and cross-model comparison. This framework complements the NWC's operational system by allowing multiple-source FIM integration and evaluation within a unified environment. The functionality is equally applicable at the local level for training, comparison, and teaching practical differences in action between flood models. Leveraging different sources of flood datasets under a common framework enhances confidence in the results and promotes informed action, including improved early warning and response.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70107","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147579891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stationary and Nonstationary Influences of Teleconnections on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies in Vietnam","authors":"Hoa Thi Pham, Joseph Awange, Sten Claessens","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70101","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous studies of teleconnection (TC) impacts on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) rarely focus on Vietnam or on the nonstationary nature of TC–TWSA relationships. This study addresses these gaps by examining both stationary and nonstationary TC influences on TWSA using correlation analysis (Pearson and cross-spectral methods) and TC-related TWSA extraction. The extracted TC-related TWSA is consistent with correlation patterns: absolute zero-lag (lagged) correlations are 0.18–0.51 (0.18–0.62), with TCs leading TWSA by 0–8 months and explaining 20%–64% of TWSA variance. Dominant TCs differ by region and are generally stronger in the south. Nonstationarity is evident from (i) large correlation shifts between 2003–2012 and 2013–2022 (e.g., from none to 0.80 or from −0.19 to 0.76) and (ii) time–frequency variability in TC–TWSA strength. Separating TCs into interannual and decadal components improves TWSA modeling, especially when distinct TCs are used for each scale; decadal influences dominate in the north, interannual in the south. These results highlight the value of timescale-specific TC integration for TWSA reconstruction and forecasting and caution against transferring nonstationary TC–TWSA links between periods.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70101","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147615001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stationary and Nonstationary Influences of Teleconnections on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies in Vietnam","authors":"Hoa Thi Pham, Joseph Awange, Sten Claessens","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70101","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous studies of teleconnection (TC) impacts on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) rarely focus on Vietnam or on the nonstationary nature of TC–TWSA relationships. This study addresses these gaps by examining both stationary and nonstationary TC influences on TWSA using correlation analysis (Pearson and cross-spectral methods) and TC-related TWSA extraction. The extracted TC-related TWSA is consistent with correlation patterns: absolute zero-lag (lagged) correlations are 0.18–0.51 (0.18–0.62), with TCs leading TWSA by 0–8 months and explaining 20%–64% of TWSA variance. Dominant TCs differ by region and are generally stronger in the south. Nonstationarity is evident from (i) large correlation shifts between 2003–2012 and 2013–2022 (e.g., from none to 0.80 or from −0.19 to 0.76) and (ii) time–frequency variability in TC–TWSA strength. Separating TCs into interannual and decadal components improves TWSA modeling, especially when distinct TCs are used for each scale; decadal influences dominate in the north, interannual in the south. These results highlight the value of timescale-specific TC integration for TWSA reconstruction and forecasting and caution against transferring nonstationary TC–TWSA links between periods.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70101","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147614998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Groundwater Contributions to Daily Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loads and Implications for Prediction in Watersheds in South Korea","authors":"Bisrat Ayalew Yifru, Seoro Lee, Jeongho Han, Woonji Park, Kyoung Jae Lim","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding watershed water quality dynamics is essential for sustainable management, yet accurate nutrient load prediction remains challenging under strong inter-annual variability. To address this limitation, this study presents a hybrid modelling framework that integrates baseflow information into a machine-learning structure to improve nutrient load prediction. By separating and quantifying baseflow contributions, the proposed approach provides a process-informed foundation for data-driven prediction. We employed a conventional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model as a baseline and developed a hybrid model incorporating baseflow nutrient load contribution. In addition, the limitations of applying conventional environmental models in watersheds with strong seasonality were explored. The results show that the hybrid approach significantly outperformed the standard LSTM and process-based models. The benchmark LSTM model exhibited a percentage bias (PBIAS) of −3.08% to −126.57% and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.13–0.95. The hybrid models reduced PBIAS to −1.88% to 47.21% and increased NSE to 0.66–0.99. Notably, this improvement was pronounced during wet seasons, indicating that incorporating baseflow information strengthens prediction accuracy at peak flow conditions. These findings demonstrate that accounting for baseflow contributions enhances nutrient load prediction in machine-learning frameworks, particularly in watersheds with high hydrological variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147614999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Groundwater Contributions to Daily Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loads and Implications for Prediction in Watersheds in South Korea","authors":"Bisrat Ayalew Yifru, Seoro Lee, Jeongho Han, Woonji Park, Kyoung Jae Lim","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70106","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding watershed water quality dynamics is essential for sustainable management, yet accurate nutrient load prediction remains challenging under strong inter-annual variability. To address this limitation, this study presents a hybrid modelling framework that integrates baseflow information into a machine-learning structure to improve nutrient load prediction. By separating and quantifying baseflow contributions, the proposed approach provides a process-informed foundation for data-driven prediction. We employed a conventional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model as a baseline and developed a hybrid model incorporating baseflow nutrient load contribution. In addition, the limitations of applying conventional environmental models in watersheds with strong seasonality were explored. The results show that the hybrid approach significantly outperformed the standard LSTM and process-based models. The benchmark LSTM model exhibited a percentage bias (PBIAS) of −3.08% to −126.57% and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.13–0.95. The hybrid models reduced PBIAS to −1.88% to 47.21% and increased NSE to 0.66–0.99. Notably, this improvement was pronounced during wet seasons, indicating that incorporating baseflow information strengthens prediction accuracy at peak flow conditions. These findings demonstrate that accounting for baseflow contributions enhances nutrient load prediction in machine-learning frameworks, particularly in watersheds with high hydrological variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147615000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joshua B. Mouser, Serena Ciparis, Michael J. White, Paul L. Angermeier, Jonathan A. Czuba
{"title":"Development of a SWAT+ Model to Improve Conservation Practice Efficacy for Protecting Stream Health in Karst Pasturelands","authors":"Joshua B. Mouser, Serena Ciparis, Michael J. White, Paul L. Angermeier, Jonathan A. Czuba","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.70104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70104","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Placing appropriate conservation practices in critical source areas of pollutants can benefit stream health in karst environments susceptible to agricultural pollution. Watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+), can optimize both practice selection and placement across the landscape, but to our knowledge no studies have tested this model in karst pasturelands. Our goal was to understand pollutant dynamics in pasturelands with karst topography in southwest Virginia, United States. We built a SWAT+ model to predict streamflow and pollutant loads for four watersheds. SWAT+ predicted that streamflow estimates were most affected by setting the available water capacity to zero and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the soil, revealing that water, and associated pollutants, move primarily through subsurface pathways. Predicted sediment yield was negatively associated with agricultural land cover and was strongly influenced by channel erodibility—indicating that the predominant sediment source may be streambanks. Therefore, practices that stabilize stream banks (e.g., fencing cattle out of streams) may be most effective at reducing sediment loads. The model unsatisfactorily predicted total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads. The utility of SWAT+ for cattle grazing operations in karst regions could be improved by more accurately representing the effects of cattle grazing on streambank erosion and the dynamic subsurface movement of pollutants.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":"62 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.70104","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147615022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}