利用空气流域、流域和河口模型综合套件模拟沿海流域的气候变化

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Lewis C. Linker, Gary W. Shenk, Gopal Bhatt, Richard Tian, Carl F. Cerco, Isabella Bertani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020 年,切萨皮克湾计划通过让其七个流域管辖区(特拉华州、马里兰州、纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和哥伦比亚特区)采用更多减少营养污染物的措施,来抵消 1995 年至 2025 年这 30 年间气候变化的影响。气候变化评估是通过切萨皮克流域、空气流域和河口的综合模型进行的。在 2025 年、2035 年、2045 年和 2055 年运行的情景估计了不同未来气候条件的影响。本文介绍了这一评估的结果,旨在为其他建模工作者评估气候变化对沿岸流域的影 响提供指导。量化的气候变化主要影响因素包括降水量、潜在蒸散量、流域营养负荷、潮汐水温和海 平面的增加。气候变化分析中量化的次要影响因素包括营养物质种类的变化以及氮、二氧化碳湿沉降量的增加、降雨强度、潮汐湿地损失、河口盐入侵和浮游植物生物量。为抵消 1995 年至 2025 年气候变化对水质的影响,假设情况表明,在切萨皮克最高日负荷总量的要求之外,每年还需分别减少 230 万和 30 万公斤的氮和磷。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Simulating climate change in a coastal watershed with an integrated suite of airshed, watershed, and estuary models

Simulating climate change in a coastal watershed with an integrated suite of airshed, watershed, and estuary models

In 2020, the Chesapeake Bay Program moved to offset impacts from climate change for the 30-year period from 1995 through 2025 by having its seven watershed jurisdictions (Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia) apply additional nutrient pollutant reduction practices. The climate change assessment was performed with integrated models of the Chesapeake watershed, airshed, and estuary. Scenarios run for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055 estimated effects from the different future climatic conditions. This article presents the results of that assessment and is intended to provide a guide to assist other modeling practitioners in assessing climate change impacts in coastal watersheds. Major influences of climate change that were quantified include increases in precipitation volume, potential evapotranspiration, watershed nutrient loads, tidal water temperature, and sea level. Minor influences quantified in the climate change analysis include changes in nutrient speciation and increases in wet deposition of nitrogen, CO2, rainfall intensity, tidal wetland loss, up-estuary salt intrusion, and phytoplankton biomass. To offset climate change impacts from 1995 to 2025 on water quality, the scenarios indicate an additional 2.3 million and 0.3 million kg of nitrogen and phosphorus per annum, respectively, will need to be reduced beyond what is called for in the Chesapeake Total Maximum Daily Load.

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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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