Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports最新文献_第3页

Plackett–Luce modeling with trajectory models for measuring athlete strength Plackett-Luce模型与轨迹模型测量运动员力量

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0034

Katy McKeough, Mark Glickman

{"title":"Plackett–Luce modeling with trajectory models for measuring athlete strength","authors":"Katy McKeough, Mark Glickman","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2021-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2021-0034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is often the goal of sports analysts, coaches, and fans to predict athlete performance over time. Models such as Bradley–Terry and Plackett–Luce measure athlete skill based on results of competitions over time, but have limited predictive strength without making assumptions about the nature of the evolution of athletic skill. Growth curves are often applied in the context of sports to predict future ability, but these curves are too simple to account for complex career trajectories. We propose a non-linear, mixed-effects trajectory to model the ratings as a function of time and other athlete-specific covariates. The mixture of trajectories allows for flexibility in the estimated shape of career trajectories between athletes as well as between sports. We use the fitted trajectories to make predictions of an athlete’s career trajectory through a model of how athlete performance progresses over time in a multi-competitor scenario as an extension to the Plackett–Luce model. We show how this model is useful for predicting the outcome of women’s luge races, as well as show how we can use the model to compare athletes to one another by clustering career trajectories.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"50 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135161172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating plate discipline in Major League Baseball with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees 用贝叶斯加性回归树评估美国职棒大联盟的板规

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-0048

Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande

{"title":"Evaluating plate discipline in Major League Baseball with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees","authors":"Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2023-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside (resp. outside) the strike zone, our approach explicitly accounts not only for the players and umpires involved in the pitch but also in-game contextual information like the number of outs, the count, baserunners, and score. We first fit flexible Bayesian nonparametric models to estimate (i) the probability that the pitch is called a strike if the batter takes the pitch; (ii) the probability that the batter makes contact if he swings; and (iii) the number of runs the batting team is expected to score following each pitch outcome (e.g. swing and miss, take a called strike, etc.). We then combine these intermediate estimates to determine whether swinging increases the batting team’s run expectancy. Our approach enables natural uncertainty propagation so that we can not only determine the optimal swing/take decision but also quantify our confidence in that decision. We illustrate our framework using a case study of pitches faced by Mike Trout in 2019.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136264248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Frontmatter 头版头条

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-frontmatter3

引用次数: 0

Performing best when it matters the most: evidence from professional handball 最重要的时候表现最好:来自职业手球的证据

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0070

Christoph Bühren, Marvin Gabriel

引用次数: 4

Feeling fast? Beliefs and performance among high school sprinters 感觉快?高中短跑运动员的信念与表现

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0084

Travis J. Lybbert, Geyi Zheng

{"title":"Feeling fast? Beliefs and performance among high school sprinters","authors":"Travis J. Lybbert, Geyi Zheng","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Mindset can shape sports performance, but these effects can be difficult to detect empirically. We use data from high school sprinters to explore mindset effects on 100 m finishing times and find that headwinds hamper performance more than can be attributed to the physics of wind resistance alone. These (implied) psychological effects of wind on sprint times are stronger for girls than for boys. Having established the presence of mindset-based slack in physical performance, we then test whether sprint times changed in the wake of Matthew Boling’s record-breaking sprint in 2019 that, after going viral on social media, potentially boosted self-efficacy among high school sprinters. Using 2018 and 2019 high school track meets in California, we observe notable changes in average sprinter performance for certain types of athletes in specific wind conditions after Boling’s race that did not occur in the previous season. These results control for many observable variables, correct for multiple hypothesis testing, and use entropy balancing weights to ensure statistical comparability between the two years. We detect differences in this ‘Boling effect’ based on the predicted racial composition of teams and the predicted race of athletes, which is relevant given the racial angle of coverage of the record-setting run. We posit vicarious self-efficacy as a plausible explanation for these difference-in-differences patterns. Pronounced heterogeneity in these results demonstrates some of the complexities and nuances of mindset effects even in settings where performance is easily quantified. Subtle contextual and salience cues appear to mediate the impact of vicarious self-efficacy beliefs on performance.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"72 1","pages":"153 - 170"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77406362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating trade-offs made by American football linebackers using tracking data 利用追踪数据调查美式橄榄球中后卫的取舍

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0091

Eric Eager, Tej Seth

引用次数: 0

Choosing opponents in skiing sprint elimination tournaments 在滑雪冲刺淘汰赛中选择对手

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0027

Anders Lunander, N. Karlsson

{"title":"Choosing opponents in skiing sprint elimination tournaments","authors":"Anders Lunander, N. Karlsson","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2021-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2021-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this study we analyse data from world cup cross-country skiing sprint elimination tournaments for men and women in 2015–2020. Instead of being assigned a quarterfinal according to a seeding scheme, prequalified athletes choose themselves in sequential order in which of the five quarterfinals to compete. Due to a time constraint on the day the competition is held, the recovery time between the elimination heats varies. This implies a clear advantage for the athlete to race in an early rather than in a late quarterfinal to maximize the probability of reaching the podium. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the athletes’ choices facing the trade-off between recovery time and expected degree of competition when choosing in which quarterfinal to compete. We find empirical support for the prediction that higher ranked athletes from the qualification round prefer to compete in early quarterfinals, despite facing expected harder competition. Nevertheless, our results also suggest that athletes underestimate the value of choosing an early quarterfinal. In addition, we propose a seeding scheme capturing the fundamental disparity across quarterfinals using the estimates from alogistic regression model.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81344647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Generalizing the Elo rating system for multiplayer games and races: why endurance is better than speed 概括多人游戏和比赛的Elo评级系统:为什么耐力比速度更重要

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-0004

B. Powell

引用次数: 0

The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022 1954-2022年国际足联男子世界杯比赛中种子系统的演变和不平衡小组的影响

IF 0.8

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0087

Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo

{"title":"The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022","authors":"Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0087","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The FIFA Men’s World Cup tournament is the most popular sporting event in the world. Scholars have identified several flaws in the organization of the World Cup causing competitive imbalance. We empirically assess competitive imbalance between groups for the World Cup tournaments from 1954 through 2022. We average the Elo ratings of a team’s opponents in the group stage to calculate their group opponents rating. In every World Cup, the range in group opponents rating exceeds 118 Elo rating points – the difference between an average participant and an average semifinalist. Using logistic regression, we find that for an average participant in a 32-team World Cup, an increase in group opponents rating of only 88 Elo rating points can reduce the probability of reaching the quarterfinal from 0.174 to 0.081, which is a decrease of more than 50 %. None of the five seeding systems used by FIFA during 1954–2022 lessened the negative impact of group opponents rating on the probability of reaching the quarterfinal. We close with seven policy recommendations to restore competitive balance at the World Cup.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82602215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Frontmatter 头版头条

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-frontmatter2

引用次数: 0