The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2022-0087

Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract The FIFA Men’s World Cup tournament is the most popular sporting event in the world. Scholars have identified several flaws in the organization of the World Cup causing competitive imbalance. We empirically assess competitive imbalance between groups for the World Cup tournaments from 1954 through 2022. We average the Elo ratings of a team’s opponents in the group stage to calculate their group opponents rating. In every World Cup, the range in group opponents rating exceeds 118 Elo rating points – the difference between an average participant and an average semifinalist. Using logistic regression, we find that for an average participant in a 32-team World Cup, an increase in group opponents rating of only 88 Elo rating points can reduce the probability of reaching the quarterfinal from 0.174 to 0.081, which is a decrease of more than 50 %. None of the five seeding systems used by FIFA during 1954–2022 lessened the negative impact of group opponents rating on the probability of reaching the quarterfinal. We close with seven policy recommendations to restore competitive balance at the World Cup.

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1954-2022年国际足联男子世界杯比赛中种子系统的演变和不平衡小组的影响

国际足联男子世界杯是世界上最受欢迎的体育赛事。学者们已经发现了世界杯组织中造成竞争不平衡的几个缺陷。我们对1954年至2022年世界杯各组之间的竞争不平衡进行了实证评估。我们将该队在小组赛中对手的Elo评分取平均值来计算他们的小组对手评分。在每一届世界杯中，小组赛对手评分的差距都超过118个Elo评分点——即平均参赛球队与平均进入半决赛球队之间的差距。通过logistic回归，我们发现对于32支球队参加世界杯的普通球员来说，小组对手评分仅增加88个Elo评分点，就可以将进入四分之一决赛的概率从0.174降低到0.081，降低幅度超过50% %。国际足联在1954年至2022年期间使用的五种种子系统都没有减少小组对手评级对进入四分之一决赛概率的负面影响。最后，我们提出七项政策建议，以恢复世界杯的竞争平衡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.