1954-2022年国际足联男子世界杯比赛中种子系统的演变和不平衡小组的影响

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2022-0087

Michael A. Lapré, Elizabeth M. Palazzolo

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引用次数: 2

摘要

国际足联男子世界杯是世界上最受欢迎的体育赛事。学者们已经发现了世界杯组织中造成竞争不平衡的几个缺陷。我们对1954年至2022年世界杯各组之间的竞争不平衡进行了实证评估。我们将该队在小组赛中对手的Elo评分取平均值来计算他们的小组对手评分。在每一届世界杯中，小组赛对手评分的差距都超过118个Elo评分点——即平均参赛球队与平均进入半决赛球队之间的差距。通过logistic回归，我们发现对于32支球队参加世界杯的普通球员来说，小组对手评分仅增加88个Elo评分点，就可以将进入四分之一决赛的概率从0.174降低到0.081，降低幅度超过50% %。国际足联在1954年至2022年期间使用的五种种子系统都没有减少小组对手评级对进入四分之一决赛概率的负面影响。最后，我们提出七项政策建议，以恢复世界杯的竞争平衡。

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The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022

Abstract The FIFA Men’s World Cup tournament is the most popular sporting event in the world. Scholars have identified several flaws in the organization of the World Cup causing competitive imbalance. We empirically assess competitive imbalance between groups for the World Cup tournaments from 1954 through 2022. We average the Elo ratings of a team’s opponents in the group stage to calculate their group opponents rating. In every World Cup, the range in group opponents rating exceeds 118 Elo rating points – the difference between an average participant and an average semifinalist. Using logistic regression, we find that for an average participant in a 32-team World Cup, an increase in group opponents rating of only 88 Elo rating points can reduce the probability of reaching the quarterfinal from 0.174 to 0.081, which is a decrease of more than 50 %. None of the five seeding systems used by FIFA during 1954–2022 lessened the negative impact of group opponents rating on the probability of reaching the quarterfinal. We close with seven policy recommendations to restore competitive balance at the World Cup.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.