Plackett–Luce modeling with trajectory models for measuring athlete strength

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Katy McKeough, Mark Glickman
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract It is often the goal of sports analysts, coaches, and fans to predict athlete performance over time. Models such as Bradley–Terry and Plackett–Luce measure athlete skill based on results of competitions over time, but have limited predictive strength without making assumptions about the nature of the evolution of athletic skill. Growth curves are often applied in the context of sports to predict future ability, but these curves are too simple to account for complex career trajectories. We propose a non-linear, mixed-effects trajectory to model the ratings as a function of time and other athlete-specific covariates. The mixture of trajectories allows for flexibility in the estimated shape of career trajectories between athletes as well as between sports. We use the fitted trajectories to make predictions of an athlete’s career trajectory through a model of how athlete performance progresses over time in a multi-competitor scenario as an extension to the Plackett–Luce model. We show how this model is useful for predicting the outcome of women’s luge races, as well as show how we can use the model to compare athletes to one another by clustering career trajectories.
Plackett-Luce模型与轨迹模型测量运动员力量
预测运动员在一段时间内的表现通常是体育分析师、教练和球迷的目标。像Bradley-Terry和Plackett-Luce这样的模型是基于一段时间内的比赛结果来衡量运动员的技能的,但是在没有假设运动技能进化的本质的情况下,它们的预测能力有限。成长曲线经常被应用于体育运动中,用来预测未来的能力,但这些曲线过于简单,无法解释复杂的职业轨迹。我们提出了一个非线性的混合效应轨迹,将评级建模为时间和其他运动员特定协变量的函数。轨迹的混合允许运动员之间以及运动之间的职业轨迹的估计形状的灵活性。作为Plackett-Luce模型的延伸,我们利用拟合的轨迹来预测运动员的职业轨迹,通过一个模型来预测运动员在多竞争者情况下的表现如何随时间发展。我们展示了这个模型在预测女子雪橇比赛结果方面是如何有用的,同时也展示了我们如何通过聚类职业轨迹来使用这个模型来比较运动员。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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