Choosing opponents in skiing sprint elimination tournaments

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2021-0027

Anders Lunander, N. Karlsson

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract In this study we analyse data from world cup cross-country skiing sprint elimination tournaments for men and women in 2015–2020. Instead of being assigned a quarterfinal according to a seeding scheme, prequalified athletes choose themselves in sequential order in which of the five quarterfinals to compete. Due to a time constraint on the day the competition is held, the recovery time between the elimination heats varies. This implies a clear advantage for the athlete to race in an early rather than in a late quarterfinal to maximize the probability of reaching the podium. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the athletes’ choices facing the trade-off between recovery time and expected degree of competition when choosing in which quarterfinal to compete. We find empirical support for the prediction that higher ranked athletes from the qualification round prefer to compete in early quarterfinals, despite facing expected harder competition. Nevertheless, our results also suggest that athletes underestimate the value of choosing an early quarterfinal. In addition, we propose a seeding scheme capturing the fundamental disparity across quarterfinals using the estimates from alogistic regression model.

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在滑雪冲刺淘汰赛中选择对手

在这项研究中，我们分析了2015-2020年世界杯男女越野滑雪冲刺淘汰赛的数据。通过预审的运动员不再按照种子计划被分配到四分之一决赛，而是按照先后顺序选择参加五个四分之一决赛中的哪一个。由于比赛当天的时间限制，淘汰赛之间的恢复时间有所不同。这意味着运动员在四分之一决赛的早期比赛比在四分之一决赛的后期比赛有明显的优势，以最大限度地提高登上领奖台的可能性。本文的目的是分析运动员在选择参加四分之一决赛时面对恢复时间和预期竞争程度之间的权衡的选择。我们发现，尽管面临预期的更激烈的竞争，但预选赛中排名较高的运动员更愿意参加四分之一决赛。然而，我们的研究结果也表明，运动员低估了选择提前进入四分之一决赛的价值。此外，我们提出了一个种子方案，利用逻辑回归模型的估计来捕捉四分之一决赛之间的基本差异。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.