Journal of environmental quality最新文献

{"title":"Pig manure degradation and carbon emission: Measuring and modeling combined aerobic–anaerobic transformations","authors":"Frederik R. Dalby,&nbsp;Sasha D. Hafner,&nbsp;Herald W. Ambrose,&nbsp;Anders Peter S. Adamsen","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20603","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20603","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Greenhouse gas emissions from liquid livestock manure storage significantly contribute to global warming. Accurate farm-scale models are essential for predicting these emissions and evaluating manure management strategies, but they rely on multiple parameters describing carbon loss dynamics. Surface respiration may significantly influence carbon loss and methane emission, yet it is not explicitly included in current models. We conducted experiments to measure pig manure surface respiration rate and its effect on organic matter degradation and methane and carbon dioxide emissions. Manure was incubated for 283 days at 10°C or 20°C under aerobic or anaerobic conditions, while measuring methane and carbon dioxide emission. This was followed by anaerobic digestion at 38°C. Surface respiration reduced the organic matter content, and the effect was temperature dependent. Methane emission was not affected by surface respiration, suggesting that substrate availability was not rate-limiting for methanogenesis. Surface respiration rates were 18.1 ± 3.5 g CO₂ m⁻² day⁻¹ at 10°C and 37.1 ± 13.1 g CO₂ m⁻² day⁻¹ at 20°C (mean ± standard deviation) and were consistent with microsensor measurements of oxygen consumption in different manure surfaces. Based on these results, temperature- and surface area-dependent respiration was incorporated in the existing anaerobic biodegradation model (ABM). Simulations showed that surface respiration accounts for 29% of carbon losses in a typical pig house and 8% for outdoor storage. Developing and refining algorithms for diverse carbon transformations, such as surface respiration, is crucial for evaluating the potential for methane emission and identification of variables that control emissions at the farm scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"589-603"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jeq2.20603","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141759080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ironstone and red mud barriers to reduce subsurface movement of soil phosphorus","authors":"Samantha Smith,&nbsp;Lewis Gaston,&nbsp;Jeffery Beasley,&nbsp;Jim Wang,&nbsp;Josh Padilla,&nbsp;Wenguang Sun","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20601","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20601","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Loss of phosphorus in seepage may contribute to eutrophication of downstream water bodies. This study examined the potential use of pedogenic ironstone and untreated red mud (bauxite refining residue) as P sorbents in a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) to mitigate such loss. Effects of ironstone and red mud on P sorption (batch), transport (columns), saturated hydraulic conductivity (<i>K</i>_S), and growth of common bermudagrass (<i>Cynodon dactylon</i>; greenhouse) were examined. Both materials had sorption maxima of ∼30 mmol P kg⁻¹ or about five times that of a P-enriched sandy soil; however, sorption by red mud greatly increased with decreasing pH. Transport of P through columns of ironstone and red mud (diluted with nonreactive sand) was similar and slower compared to soil + sand. However, when red mud was mixed with soil, increased sorption at lower pH resulted in greater P retention compared to ironstone + soil (76% vs. 13%). Although addition of ironstone to soil up to 20% did not reduce <i>K</i>_S, red mud at even 5% did. Soil amendment with red mud increased bermudagrass growth and P uptake. Given long-term neutralization of red mud in an acidic soil and increased P sorption, it may be suitable in a PRB if incorporated at a low rate and/or co-incorporated with a coarser material.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"758-766"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141751848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The LTAR Grazing Land Common Experiment at the Central Plains Experimental Range: Collaborative adaptive rangeland management","authors":"David J. Augustine,&nbsp;Justin D. Derner,&nbsp;Lauren M. Porensky,&nbsp;David L. Hoover,&nbsp;John P. Ritten,&nbsp;Sean P. Kearney,&nbsp;Liwang Ma,&nbsp;Dannele Peck,&nbsp;Hailey Wilmer,&nbsp;the CARM Stakeholder Group","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20599","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20599","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Semiarid rangelands throughout the western Great Plains support livestock production and many other ecosystem services. The degree to which adaptive multi-paddock (AMP) grazing management approaches can help achieve desired ecosystem services remains unclear. At the Central Plains Experimental Range in northeastern Colorado, a management-science partnership with a diverse stakeholder group is comparing collaborative adaptive rangeland management (CARM), designed to incorporate AMP principles, to traditional rangeland management (TRM), consisting of season-long grazing during the growing season. Each treatment was implemented on a set of 10, 130-ha pastures paired by soils, topography, and plant communities to evaluate how CARM affects vegetation (composition and production), livestock production (steer weight gain), and wildlife habitat (vegetation structure for grassland birds). For the first 5 years of the experiment, CARM cattle were managed as a single herd using AMP grazing with planned year-long rest in 20% of the pastures. Relative to TRM, CARM enhanced heterogeneity in vegetation structure across the landscape, benefiting two grassland bird species. However, this came at the cost of 12%–16% lower steer weight gains in CARM versus TRM and declining populations of a third bird species of conservation concern in both treatments. Here we discuss how increased understanding of ecological and social processes during the experiment's first 5 years led to changes in the CARM treatment and management objectives during the next 5 years. We also discuss how innovations in remote sensing, environmental sensors, ecosystem modeling, social learning, and economic analyses are being integrated into and supported by the CARM experiment.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 6","pages":"904-912"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jeq2.20599","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141734327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbial diversity and gene abundance in denitrifying bioreactors: A comparison of the woodchip surface biofilm versus the interior wood matrix","authors":"Katie L. Duggan DiDominic,&nbsp;James P. Shapleigh,&nbsp;M. Todd Walter,&nbsp;Y. Samuel Wang,&nbsp;Matthew C. Reid,&nbsp;John M. Regan","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20600","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20600","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Excessive amounts of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can lead to eutrophication in water sources. Woodchip bioreactors have shown success in removing N from agricultural runoff, but less is known regarding P removal. Woodchip bioreactors are subsurface basins filled with woodchips installed downgradient of agricultural land to collect and treat drainage runoff. Microorganisms use the woodchips as a carbon (C) source to transform N in the runoff, with unresolved biological impacts on P. This study aims to explore microbial communities present in the bioreactor and determine whether milling woodchips to probe the microbial communities within them reveals hidden microbial diversities or potential activities. Metagenomic sequencing and bioinformatic analyses were performed on six woodchip samples (i.e., three unmilled and three milled) collected from a 10-year-old woodchip bioreactor treating agricultural tile drainage. All samples had similar DNA purity, yield, quality, and microbial diversity regardless of milling. However, when sequences were aligned against various protein libraries, our results indicated greater relative abundance of denitrification and P transformation proteins on the outside of the woodchips (unmilled), while the interior of woodchips (milled) exhibited more functional gene abundance for carbohydrate breakdown. Thus, it may be important to characterize microbial communities both within woodchips, and on woodchip surfaces, to gain a more holistic understanding of coupled biogeochemical cycles on N, P, and C in woodchip bioreactors. Based on these findings, we advise that future microbial research on woodchips (and potentially other permeable organic materials) examine both the surface biofilm and the interior organic material during initial studies. Once researchers determine where specific proteins or enzymes of interest are most prevalent, subsequent studies may then focus on either one or both aspects, as needed.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"565-576"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jeq2.20600","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141626907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ineffectiveness of phosphorus-containing amendments to reduce Pb bioaccessibility in an urban alkaline soil","authors":"Loryssa Lake,&nbsp;Nicholas Basta","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20598","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20598","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban soils contaminated by historical and current anthropogenic activities present an alarming human health risk requiring redress. Federal and state governments continue to lower residential soil lead (Pb) screening standards, which will likely require new risk-based approaches to address urban soil Pb contamination. Phosphorus (P) soil amendments have long been presented as a solution to sequester Pb, thereby reducing exposure risk. In this study, P-containing sources (biosolids incinerator ash, poultry litter, biosolids compost, and triple superphosphate) of varying solubilities were assessed as soil amendments to reduce Pb bioaccessibility and serve as an inexpensive remediation strategy for urban soil. Contaminated soil (1624 mg kg⁻¹Pb, pH 7.43) from Cleveland, OH, was treated with the four P-containing soil amendments at a 1:5 Pb:P molar ratio and two combination treatments at 1:10 Pb:P molar ratio and incubated for 3 months. A batch equilibration analysis was also conducted to assess reduction in in vitro bioaccessible Pb (IVBA Pb). Pb bioaccessibility was evaluated using US EPA Method 1340 at pH 1.5 and the Physiologically Based Extraction Test pH 2.5 at 1 and 3 months. In general, treatments were ineffective in reducing IVBA Pb regardless of IVBA extraction method, incubation duration, batch equilibration analyses, or P source. The results of this study suggest P-containing amendments are not suitable to address Pb exposure in the study soil. Site-specific efficacy testing to determine reductions in IVBA Pb from P-containing amendments should be performed before making recommendations for remediation of Pb-contaminated urban soil.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"743-757"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jeq2.20598","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141626906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surveillance of PFAS in sludge and biosolids at 12 water resource recovery facilities.","authors":"Shubhashini Oza, Katherine Y Bell, Zhiliang Xu, Yifei Wang, Martha J M Wells, John W Norton, Lloyd J Winchell, Qingguo Huang, Hui Li","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20595","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are refractory anthropogenic chemicals and current treatment processes at municipal water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) cannot efficiently degrade them, hence, these chemicals cycle through the environment. Certain PFAS can be concentrated in biosolids from WRRFs and are commonly land applied for beneficial reuse. Given recent advances in measurement of PFAS, documentation of the range of concentrations in pre-stabilized sludge and stabilized biosolids is critical to evaluating treatment best practices and assessing potential human health and ecological risks. In this study, pre-stabilized sludge and post-stabilized biosolids samples were collected from 12 major WRRFs across the United States. PFAS were analyzed using Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method SW846-3500C/537.1, and Draft EPA Method 1633, by one commercial laboratory and two university research laboratories, respectively. Results comparison among laboratories demonstrated statistical differences in PFAS concentrations among split samples. For example, 5:3 FTCA (fluorotelomer carboxylic acid) concentrations in post-stabilized sludge at Lab 1 were measured at 21 ng/g (dry), while they were detected at 151 ng/g (dry) in Lab 3. Further, higher PFAS concentrations were observed in post-stabilized biosolids compared to pre-stabilized sludges, regardless of the laboratory or analysis method, even when solids destruction through solids stabilization was considered. Further research is required to refine methods for analyses of PFAS in sludge and biosolids samples from WRRFs prior to being used for development of regulatory actions as well as understanding how various treatment protocols could impact concentrations of PFAS in land-applied biosolids.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141616555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanisms underlying episodic nitrate and phosphorus leaching from poorly drained agricultural soils","authors":"Nathaniel C. Lawrence,&nbsp;Steven J. Hall","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20597","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20597","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Poorly drained depressions within tile-drained croplands can have disproportionate environmental and agronomic impacts, but mechanisms controlling nutrient leaching remain poorly understood. We monitored nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) leaching using zero-tension soil lysimeters across a depression to upland gradient over 2 years in a corn–soybean (<i>Zea mays</i> L.–<i>Glycine max</i> [L.] Merr.) field in Iowa. We also measured stable isotopes (δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O) of nitrate to examine its sources and transformations. SRP concentrations peaked during winter and early spring after phosphorus (P) fertilization (mean = 3 mg P L⁻¹), with highest values in the depression, and SRP was relatively stable thereafter (mean = 0.3 mg P L⁻¹) irrespective of periods of high soil moisture that led to widespread iron (Fe) reduction across the field. During a near-average precipitation year, nitrate stable isotopes indicated direct leaching of fertilizer nitrate within days of application, followed by nitrification of fertilizer ammonium and several weeks of denitrification in depressional soils. Nevertheless, nitrate concentrations remained high (mean = 28 mg N L⁻¹) in the depression despite strong isotopic evidence for denitrification (&gt;48% N removal). During a wet year, nitrate concentrations were lower in the depression than upland and nitrate isotopes were highly variable, consistent with nearly complete nitrate removal by denitrification in the depression and significant denitrification in upland soils. We conclude that poorly drained depressional soils can potentially decrease nitrate leaching via denitrification under sustained wet conditions, but they inconsistently denitrify and are vulnerable to high nitrate and SRP losses when soils are not saturated, especially following fertilization.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"643-656"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jeq2.20597","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141590402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do phosphorus amendments enhance biodegradation activity in stalled petroleum hydrocarbon-contaminated soil?","authors":"Aimée D. Schryer,&nbsp;Steven D. Siciliano","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20594","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20594","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Phosphorus (P) fertilizers promote soil petroleum-hydrocarbon (PHC) bioremediation by correcting carbon-to-P ratio imbalances. While these inputs create conditions favorable to microbial growth, areas of a site or an entire site with low degradation rates (i.e., “stalled”) occur for unknown reasons. We hypothesized that soil conditions limit P bioavailability, leading to stalls in PHC bioremediation, and adding the correct P amendment restarts microbial activity. Soils were collected and characterized from four cold calcareous PHC-impacted sites in Saskatchewan, Canada, undergoing bioremediation. A generalized linear mixed model identified that regions with lower degradation rates possessed a neutral pH with high magnetic and salinity values. In a subsequent laboratory experiment, the proportion of benzene degraded at greater rates within active (i.e., higher degradation rates) than stalled soils, thereby following model predictions (<i>p</i>-value = 0.19, Kruskal–Wallis). The PHC degradation efficiency of different P amendments was tested by doping stalled soils (<i>n</i> = 3) with one of five treatments: 0 (control), 0 (autoclaved control), or 50 mg phosphate kg⁻¹ soil as sodium diphosphate, triethyl phosphate, or tripolyphosphate. Tripolyphosphate accelerated benzene degradation (75.5 ± 5.4%) in one stalled soil (Outlook 323) and increased degradation non-significantly (43.9 ± 9.4%) in another (Allan 917). Alternatively, the final sample (Davidson 421) possessed the greatest benzene removal with no amendments. This implies that soil P bioavailability may not be the sole cause of decreased microbial activity. Accordingly, combining model outputs with mineralogy and microbiology investigations could enhance PHC biodegradation rates in these cold calcareous soils.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"669-683"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141590401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil hydro-physical variables and crop residues determinate runoff, soil loss, and glyphosate and AMPA concentration in the aqueous phase under simulated rainfall events","authors":"Daiana Sainz,&nbsp;Filipe Behrends Kraemer,&nbsp;Patricia Carfagno,&nbsp;Maximiliano Eiza,&nbsp;Celio Chagas","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20596","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20596","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil structural degradation and water erosion processes were observed even in no-tillage schemes in the Pampas region. Within these conservation systems, agrochemical application per hectare is one of the highest globally. Thus, this entails a serious risk of water contamination. The objectives of this study were to (1) test the hypothesis that the hydrological dynamics and sediment concentration related to surface runoff were conditioned by soil structure regardless of the presence of maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) crop residue and (2) assess the incidence of maize crop residue on glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) concentration in runoff. The soil under study corresponded to Arroyo Dulce Series (Typic Argiudoll silty loam soil). Rain simulations were performed in the laboratory on undisturbed soil samples. Total runoff and infiltration rate were similar between treatments with C(+) and without C(−) maize crop residues (C(+) 1381.40 mL and 14.27 mm h⁻¹, C(−): 1529.70 mL and 21.67 mm h⁻¹). The C(−) treatments showed a higher sediment concentration than C(+) (1.58 and 0.42 g 100 mL⁻¹, respectively). Glyphosate and AMPA average values in runoff were 15.9 and 33.9 µg L⁻¹. High variability of the hydro-physical properties and occurrence of soil structure, particularly platy ones, were detected. The hydrological variables were conditioned mainly by the occurrence of platy structures regardless of crop residue presence. Glyphosate concentration was increased in the first runoff event by the presence of corn residues, while AMPA concentrations were higher in the second runoff event in both residue treatments. In this study, maize residue on the soil surface protected the soil from sediment detachment but did not change runoff or infiltration. Thus, the implementation of agricultural management practices that promote vegetative residue cover has shown positive results to erosion.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 5","pages":"629-642"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141563461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting PM2.5 concentration with enhanced state–trend awareness and uncertainty analysis using bagging and LSTM neural networks","authors":"Chao Bian,&nbsp;Guangqiu Huang","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.20589","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.20589","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Monitoring air pollutants, particularly PM2.5, which refers to fine particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm or smaller, has become a focal point of environmental protection efforts worldwide. This study introduces the concept of state–trend awareness, which is widely employed in big data analytics to enhance global threat identification, understanding, and response capabilities. We applied this approach to the prediction of PM2.5, utilizing its capacity to provide holistic insights and support decisions in dynamic environments. We conducted in-depth analyses of extensive historical data to forecast the future concentration trends. By combining a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with a bagging ensemble learning algorithm, our developed model demonstrated superior accuracy and generalization compared to those of traditional LSTM and support vector machine (SVM) methods, reducing errors relative to SVM-LSTM by 12%. We further introduced interval prediction to address forecasting uncertainties, not only providing a specific PM2.5 but also forecasting the probability ranges of its variations. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving the prediction accuracy, enhancing model generalization, and reducing overfitting, thereby offering a robust analytical tool for environmental monitoring and public health decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"53 4","pages":"441-455"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141426997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}