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Staying When the Going Gets Tough: The Equivalent Predictions of Option and Search Theory on Migration during Economic Downturns 艰难时留下:选择理论和搜索理论对经济衰退时期移民的等价预测
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2965270
J. Gardner, Joshua R. Hendrickson
{"title":"Staying When the Going Gets Tough: The Equivalent Predictions of Option and Search Theory on Migration during Economic Downturns","authors":"J. Gardner, Joshua R. Hendrickson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2965270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2965270","url":null,"abstract":"We show that both option and search theory suggest that workers should be less likely to migrate out of labor markets in which there is greater uncertainty about future economic opportunities. The intuition for this result is that, the more volatile the labor market, the greater the likelihood of such opportunities improving in the future. This result weakens the standard prediction that workers should migrate out of markets experiencing relative economic downturns.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114155886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interconnectedness Risk and Active Portfolio Management: The Information-Theoretic Perspective 互联性风险与主动投资组合管理:信息论视角
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-04-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2909839
Eduard Baitinger, Jochen Papenbrock
{"title":"Interconnectedness Risk and Active Portfolio Management: The Information-Theoretic Perspective","authors":"Eduard Baitinger, Jochen Papenbrock","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2909839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2909839","url":null,"abstract":"Today's asset management academia and practice is dominated by mean-variance thinking. In consequence, this leads to the quantification of the dependence structure of asset returns by the covariance or the Pearson's correlation coefficient matrix. However, the respective dependence measures are linear by construction and hence unable to detect non-linear dependencies. This article tackles the described concern with regard to the previous publication of Baitinger and Papenbrock (2017). We introduce the mutual information measure, which is an information-theoretic concept and able to detect linear and non-linear dependencies. Next, correlation-based networks are extensively compared to mutual information-based networks. Lastly, the empirical study of Baitinger and Papenbrock (2017) is replicated using mutual information-based networks.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133214815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Search, Matching, and the Role of Digital Marketplace Design in Enabling Trade: Evidence from Airbnb 搜索、匹配和数字市场设计在促进贸易中的作用:来自Airbnb的证据
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-03-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2939084
Andrey Fradkin
{"title":"Search, Matching, and the Role of Digital Marketplace Design in Enabling Trade: Evidence from Airbnb","authors":"Andrey Fradkin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2939084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2939084","url":null,"abstract":"Digital peer-to-peer marketplaces have increased the volume of trade in underutilized assets. I use the setting of Airbnb to investigate transaction costs in these markets and the role of search engine design in reducing these costs. I show that this market is characterized by many options, heterogeneity in preferences, and uncertain availability. Consequently, search is limited, time-consuming, and sometimes results in failed transaction attempts due to rejections of searchers by hosts. I estimate a model of search and matching and use it to show that the search engine plays a critical role in facilitating transactions. Without availability tracking and filtering, searches with accepted inquiries would fall by 68% and rejections would increase by 140%. Lastly, I show how searcher outcomes can be improved from the status quo (as of 2014) by algorithms that redirect searchers towards listings that are more likely to accept those searchers.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125985294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 93
Impacts of Consumer Market Search Behavior on Retailers’ Decision-Making With Risk Considerations 考虑风险的消费者市场搜索行为对零售商决策的影响
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3804479
Wanying Jia
{"title":"Impacts of Consumer Market Search Behavior on Retailers’ Decision-Making With Risk Considerations","authors":"Wanying Jia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3804479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3804479","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, the impact of human behavioral issues on the supply chain decision making is to arouse higher attention, such as risk attitude and so on. Behavioral factors, such as risk aversion, can directly influence a manager’s procurement decisions. In this paper, we focus on the impact of a retailer’s risk aversion on its decision making considering the consumer market search behavior. We select a single product supply chain system, which consists of one manufacturer and two retailers. By the theoretical analysis, we find that the customer market search behavior can promote the retailers’ order quantity, for there is probability that retailers are in short supply. At the same time, the risk-averse attitude will make the retailer tend to conservative. For example, a risk-averse retailer tends to order more products comparing to a risk-neutral one. So the retailer with risk aversion should make a trade-off and we explore the bilateral influence of risk attitude and shortage penalty.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126750074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information Flows, the Accuracy of Opinions, and Crashes in a Dynamic Network 动态网络中的信息流、意见的准确性和崩溃
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-03-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3044458
Phillip J. Monin, Richard M. Bookstaber
{"title":"Information Flows, the Accuracy of Opinions, and Crashes in a Dynamic Network","authors":"Phillip J. Monin, Richard M. Bookstaber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3044458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3044458","url":null,"abstract":"Markets coordinate the flow of information in the economy, aggregating it through the price mechanism. We develop a dynamic model of information transmission and aggregation in financial and other social networks in which continued membership in the network is contingent on the accuracy of opinions. Agents have opinions about a state of the world and form links to others in a directed fashion probabilistically. Agents update their opinions by averaging those of their connections, weighted by how long their connections have been in the system. Agents survive or die based on how far their opinions are from the true state. In contrast to the results in the extant literature on DeGroot learning, we show through simulations that for some parameterizations the model cycles stochastically between periods of high connectivity, in which agents arrive at a consensus opinion close to the state, and periods of low connectivity in which agents’ opinions are widely dispersed. We add varying degrees of homophily through a model parameter called tribal preference and find that crash frequency is decreasing in the degree of homophily. Our results suggest that the information aggregation function of markets can fail solely because of the dynamics of information flows, irrespective of shocks or news.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132393173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Taking on the Boss: Informative Contests in Prosecutor Elections 挑战老板:检察官选举中的信息竞赛
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2973375
Bryan C. McCannon, Joylynn Pruitt
{"title":"Taking on the Boss: Informative Contests in Prosecutor Elections","authors":"Bryan C. McCannon, Joylynn Pruitt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2973375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2973375","url":null,"abstract":"The United States is unique in that most states select their prosecutors using popular election. An interesting feature of prosecutor elections is that the pool of potential challengers to an incumbent comes primarily from subordinates within the office. We develop a signaling model that analyzes whether entry into the political race by a subordinate provides voters with useful information. We challenge the commonly held presumption that the election mechanism is ineffective. Exploring the decision of an insider to challenge the boss, we demonstrate that a challenger can strategically convey information about the incumbent's quality by entering the race. Anticipating this, poor incumbents exit. Thus, the model matches empirical observations of rare contested elections and rather modest vacancy rates. Compared to the situation where outsiders challenge the incumbent, the election mechanism is effective.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114252108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Productivity Spillovers Through Labor Mobility in Search Equilibrium 搜索均衡下劳动力流动的生产率溢出效应
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2701785
Tom-Reiel Heggedal, Espen R. Moen, Edgar Preugschat
{"title":"Productivity Spillovers Through Labor Mobility in Search Equilibrium","authors":"Tom-Reiel Heggedal, Espen R. Moen, Edgar Preugschat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2701785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2701785","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes an explicit model of spillovers through labor flows in a framework with search frictions. Firms can choose to innovate or to imitate by hiring a worker from a firm that has already innovated. We show that if innovating firms can commit to long-term wage contracts with their workers, productivity spillovers are fully internalized. If firms cannot commit to long-term wage contracts, there is too little innovation and too much imitation in equilibrium. Our model is tractable and allows us to analyze welfare effects of various policies in the limited commitment case. We find that subsidizing innovation and taxing imitation improves welfare. Moreover, allowing innovating firms to charge different forms of fees or rent out workers to imitating firms may also improve welfare. By contrast, non-pecuniary measures that reduce the efficiency of the search process, always reduce welfare.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"286 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125873871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
The Impact of Information Sharing on the Use of Collateral versus Guarantees 信息共享对抵押品与担保使用的影响
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2017-01-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2834038
R. de Haas, Matteo Millone
{"title":"The Impact of Information Sharing on the Use of Collateral versus Guarantees","authors":"R. de Haas, Matteo Millone","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2834038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2834038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study exploits contract-level data from Bosnia and Herzegovina to assess the impact of a new credit registry on the use of borrower collateral versus third-party guarantees. Among first-time borrowers, the introduction of mandatory information sharing leads to a shift from collateral to guarantees, in particular for riskier borrowers. Among repeat borrowers, both collateral and guarantee requirements decline in proportion to the length of the lending relationship. These results suggest that information sharing can both reduce adverse selection among new borrowers and hold-up problems among repeat borrowers.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"176 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115268527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Identifying Information Asymmetry in Securities Markets 识别证券市场中的信息不对称
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2016-12-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2565216
K. Back, Kevin Crotty, Tao Li
{"title":"Identifying Information Asymmetry in Securities Markets","authors":"K. Back, Kevin Crotty, Tao Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2565216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2565216","url":null,"abstract":"When informed orders in a PIN-like model are chosen by an optimizing trader, the frequency and magnitude of information events cannot be identified from the distribution of order flows alone. On the other hand, Kyle’s lambda does identify information asymmetry. In the data, Kyle’s lambda is higher around earnings announcements, but PIN estimates are not.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127126817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Are Consumers Planning Consumption According to an Euler Equation? 消费者是否按照欧拉方程规划消费?
ERN: Search Pub Date : 2016-12-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2908011
Lena Dräger
{"title":"Are Consumers Planning Consumption According to an Euler Equation?","authors":"Lena Dräger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2908011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2908011","url":null,"abstract":"Evaluating a new survey dataset of German consumers, we test whether individual consumption plans are formed according to an Euler equation derived from consumption life-cycle models. Estimating several consumption Euler equations, the results are mostly in line with the theory: We find evidence of consumption smoothing, since individual current and planned spending are positively correlated. In addition, current spending is positively correlated with both quantitative and qualitative inflation expectations, and negatively with quantitative nominal interest rate expectations. Overall, this results in a negative link between current spending and implied real interest rate expectations, where the weaker effect of nominal interest rate expectations might be due to the current zero-lower-bound environment. As expected, the effect of perceived real interest rates is most pronounced for consumers who are active on financial markets. Finally, economic news on inflation and financial market developments observed by the consumer strengthen the effects of their interest rate and inflation expectations on current spending.","PeriodicalId":153208,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Search","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115511644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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