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Ranking and selection under input uncertainty: A budget allocation formulation 投入不确定性下的排序与选择:一个预算分配公式
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247956
Di Wu, Enlu Zhou
{"title":"Ranking and selection under input uncertainty: A budget allocation formulation","authors":"Di Wu, Enlu Zhou","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247956","url":null,"abstract":"A widely acknowledged challenge in ranking and selection is how to allocate the simulation budget such that the probability of correction selection (PCS) is maximized. However, there is yet another challenge: when the input distributions are estimated using finite real-world data, simulation output is subject to input uncertainty and we may fail to identify the best system even using infinite simulation budget. We propose a new formulation that captures the tradeoff between collecting input data and running simulations. To solve the formulation, we develop an algorithm for two-stage allocation of finite budget. We use numerical experiment to demonstrate the performance of our algorithm.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117216747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Using simulation to study the impact of racial demographics on blood transfusion allocation policies 采用模拟方法研究种族人口统计对输血分配政策的影响
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8248003
Marie Kahara, Jamol Pender
{"title":"Using simulation to study the impact of racial demographics on blood transfusion allocation policies","authors":"Marie Kahara, Jamol Pender","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8248003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248003","url":null,"abstract":"Managing the supply and demand of blood for transfusions is a complicated problem that many hospitals encounter since the blood supply is dependent on donations while the demand is not. Moreover, recent research also shows that transfusing older blood into patients may lead to increased mortality. This raises the issue of whether transfusing fresher blood can be achieved without jeopardizing blood availability. In this paper, we build a simulation model to study the impact of racial and ethnic diversity in combination with a blood allocation threshold. We show that for many diverse cities like New York City that the increased diversity of the population can lead to a large mismatch between blood supply and demand.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117244142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Ranking and selection with covariates 用协变量排序和选择
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247946
Haihui Shen, L. Hong, Xiaowei Zhang
{"title":"Ranking and selection with covariates","authors":"Haihui Shen, L. Hong, Xiaowei Zhang","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247946","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a new ranking and selection problem in which the performance of each alternative depends on some observable random covariates. The best alternative is thus not constant but depends on the values of the covariates. Assuming a linear model that relates the mean performance of an alternative and the covariates, we design selection procedures producing policies that represent the best alternative as a function in the covariates. We prove that the selection procedures can provide certain statistical guarantee, which is defined via a nontrivial generalization of the concept of probability of correct selection that is widely used in the conventional ranking and selection setting.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127156824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The rig: A leadership practice game to train on debiasing techniques 装备:一个领导力练习游戏，用来训练消除偏见的技巧
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8248137
Martin Prause, Jürgen G Weigand
{"title":"The rig: A leadership practice game to train on debiasing techniques","authors":"Martin Prause, Jürgen G Weigand","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8248137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248137","url":null,"abstract":"Cognitive biases such as myopic problem representation, group think, the conjunction fallacy, and confirmation bias impair effective decision making. Therefore, successful leadership should be able to spot and mitigate circumstances that promote cognitive biases. To understand and experience the consequences of cognitive biases and to teach and train on adequate countermeasures (debiasing techniques), this article presents a serious game for leadership practice. In a round-based game, a group of participants works as a team to make decisions constrained by time, uncertainty, lack of information, and conflict. The game simulates the last stages of finalizing deep sea oil exploration. While the game focuses on behavioral learning outcomes, the final debriefing emphasizes emotional aspects to achieve a long-lasting learning effect. The debriefing reveals that the game is not artificial but mimics exactly the stages that led to the real catastrophe at the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127533951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agent-based modeling framework for simulation of complex adaptive mechanisms underlying household water conservation technology adoption 基于agent的家庭节水技术采用复杂自适应机制仿真建模框架
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247859
Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Brianne Logasa, Maria E. Presa-Reyes, A. Mostafavi
{"title":"Agent-based modeling framework for simulation of complex adaptive mechanisms underlying household water conservation technology adoption","authors":"Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Brianne Logasa, Maria E. Presa-Reyes, A. Mostafavi","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247859","url":null,"abstract":"Using new technologies to maintain, construct, and reuse naturally created products like asphalt, soils, and water can reserve the environment (Baqersad et. al 2017, 2016). The objective of this study was to specify and model the behavior of households regarding the installation of water conservation technology and evaluate strategies that could potentially increase water conservation technology adoption at the household level. In particular, this study created an agent-based modeling framework in order to understand various factors and dynamic behaviors affecting the adoption of water conservation technology by households. The model captures various demographic characteristics, household attributes, social network influence, and pricing policies; and then evaluates their influence simultaneously on household decisions in adoption of water conservation technology. The application of the proposed simulation model was demonstrated in a case study of the City of Miami Beach. The simulation results identified the intersectional effects of various factors in household water conservation technology adoption and also investigated the scenario landscape of the adoptions that can inform policy formulation and planning.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123293546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Computational methods for optimization via simulation using Gaussian Markov Random Fields 利用高斯马尔可夫随机场模拟优化的计算方法
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247941
Mark Semelhago, B. Nelson, A. Wächter, Eunhye Song
{"title":"Computational methods for optimization via simulation using Gaussian Markov Random Fields","authors":"Mark Semelhago, B. Nelson, A. Wächter, Eunhye Song","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247941","url":null,"abstract":"There has been recent interest, and significant success, in adapting and extending ideas from statistical learning via Gaussian process (GP) regression to optimization via simulation (OvS) problems. At the heart of all such methods is a GP representing knowledge about the objective function whose conditional distribution is updated as more of the feasible region is explored. Calculating the conditional distribution requires inverting a large, dense covariance matrix, and this is the primary bottleneck for applying GP learning to large-scale OvS problems. If the GP is a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF), then the precision matrix (inverse of the covariance matrix) can be constructed to be sparse. In this paper we show how to exploit this sparse-matrix structure to extend the reach of OvS based on GMRF learning for discrete-decision-variable problems.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123806952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Introduction to information and process modeling for simulation 介绍信息和过程建模的仿真
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247812
Gerd Wagner
{"title":"Introduction to information and process modeling for simulation","authors":"Gerd Wagner","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247812","url":null,"abstract":"In simulation engineering, a system model mainly consists of an information model and a process model. In the fields of Information Systems and Software Engineering (IS/SE) there are widely used standards such as the Class Diagrams of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) for making information models, and the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) for making process models. This tutorial presents a general approach how to use UML class diagrams and BPMN process diagrams at all three levels of model-driven simulation engineering: for making conceptual simulation models, for making platform-independent simulation design models, and for making platform-specific, executable simulation models. In our approach, object and event types are modeled as stereotyped classes and random variables are modeled as stereotyped operations constrained to comply with a specific probability distribution, while event rules/routines are modeled both as BPMN patterns and in pseudo-code.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115032127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Trust region based stochastic optimization with adaptive restart: A family of global optimization algorithms 基于信任域的自适应重启随机优化:一类全局优化算法
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247943
L. Mathesen, Giulia Pedrielli, S. Ng
{"title":"Trust region based stochastic optimization with adaptive restart: A family of global optimization algorithms","authors":"L. Mathesen, Giulia Pedrielli, S. Ng","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247943","url":null,"abstract":"The field of simulation optimization has seen algorithms proposed for local optimization, drawing upon different locally convergent search methods. Similarly, there are numerous global optimization algorithms with differing strategies to achieve convergence. In this paper, we look specifically into meta-model based algorithms that stochastically drive global search through an optimal sampling criteria evaluated over a constructed meta-model of the predicted response considering the uncertainty of the response. We propose Trust Region Based Optimization with Adaptive Restart (TBOAR), a family of algorithms that dynamically restarts a trust region based search method via an optimal sampling criteria derived upon a meta-model based global search approach. Additionally, we propose a new sampling criteria to reconcile undesirable adaptive restart trajectories. This paper presents preliminary results showing the advantage of the proposed approach over the benchmark Efficient Global Optimization algorithm, focusing on a deterministic black box simulator with a d-dimensional input and a one-dimensional response.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115047157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
History of the winter simulation conference: Period of growth, consolidation, and innovation (1993–2007) 冬季模拟会议的历史:成长、巩固和创新时期(1993-2007)
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247784
R. Barton, J. Joines, D. Morrice
{"title":"History of the winter simulation conference: Period of growth, consolidation, and innovation (1993–2007)","authors":"R. Barton, J. Joines, D. Morrice","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247784","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider the history of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) from 1993–2007, a period characterized by growth, consolidation, and innovation. We examine developments in the WSC program including rapid proliferation of new tracks and mini-tracks to match the interests of WSC attendees. Our essay also considers the impact of technological advancements. With the launch of www.wintersim.org in 1995, the website soon became the main vehicle for dissemination of information to conference participants. Additionally, it enabled the development of the online paper-management system for submission, review, revision, and final delivery to the publisher of all papers in the Proceedings. The website also led to significant changes in how the Proceedings was published and archived. Lastly, we survey developments in the WSC administration concerning the WSC Board of Directors structure, conference financing, new conference venues (e.g., the decision to take the conference international), and novel collaborations.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115258753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A layered and aggregated queuing network simulator for detection of abnormalities 用于检测异常的分层和聚合排队网络模拟器
2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2017.8247856
Junfei Xie, Chenyuan He, Yan Wan, K. Mills, Christopher E. Dabrowski
{"title":"A layered and aggregated queuing network simulator for detection of abnormalities","authors":"Junfei Xie, Chenyuan He, Yan Wan, K. Mills, Christopher E. Dabrowski","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2017.8247856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8247856","url":null,"abstract":"Driven by the needs to monitor, detect, and prevent catastrophic failures for complex information systems in real-time, we develop in this paper a discrete-time queuing network simulator. The dynamic model for the simulator abstracts network dynamics by taking an aggregated and layered structure. Comparative studies verify capabilities of the simulator in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. We illustrate the model structure, flow processing mechanisms, and simulator implementation. We also illustrate the use of this simulator to detect distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) flooding attacks, based on a cross-correlation-based measure. Finally, we show that the layered structure provides new insights on the spatiotemporal spread patterns of cascading failure, by revealing spreads both horizontally within a sub-network and vertically across sub-networks.","PeriodicalId":145780,"journal":{"name":"2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"234 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116138152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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