{"title":"Air pollution and criminal behavior: a nationwide case-crossover analysis in China.","authors":"Dongyang Han, Yichen Guo, Yixuan Jiang, Yue Niu, Renjie Chen, Haidong Kan","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag214","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Criminal activity is a major societal and public health concern. However, little is known about how exposure to ambient air pollution influences the incidence of crime. We aimed to examine the short-term associations between air pollution and criminal behavior.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover design to analyse 483 718 crime events in China (2013-19). Conditional logistic regression models were employed to estimate associations between individual pollutants and crime, while weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression was used to assess joint effects. Stratified analyses were conducted by crime type, season, geographic region, and socioeconomic status. An Air Quality Score was constructed to facilitate interpretation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All six examined pollutants, i.e. fine particulate matter, coarse particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and ozone, were associated with increased crime incidence, with the largest estimates observed on the day of exposure. Each interquartile range increase corresponded to increases of 1.66%, 1.88%, 4.03%, 2.03%, 2.81%, and 1.30%, respectively. Associations were stronger in the cold season, northern regions, and lower-socioeconomic regions, with consistently stronger associations observed for violent crimes and theft across the examined pollutants. Moreover, a one-unit increase in the WQS index was associated with a 3.22% increase in crime incidence.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Short-term exposure to air pollution is associated with increased crime incidence, as evidenced by both independent and joint-pollutant effects. These findings suggest that joint exposure to multiple pollutants may be relevant to crime incidence. Improving air quality may have potential co-benefits for public safety.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149108923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Phoebe S C Hui, Brooke L Devlin, David M Evans, Liang-Dar Hwang
{"title":"Comparing genome-wide significant and chemosensory variants as instruments for dietary patterns in Mendelian randomization.","authors":"Phoebe S C Hui, Brooke L Devlin, David M Evans, Liang-Dar Hwang","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag186","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag186","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Diet is a modifiable risk factor for cardiometabolic disease, yet establishing causality remains challenging. Mendelian randomization (MR) leverages genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to enable causal inference.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>Using two-sample MR, we assessed the causal effects of four principal component-derived dietary patterns (DPs)-Unhealthy, Healthy, Meat-based, Pescatarian-on cardiometabolic outcomes including body mass index, coronary artery disease, blood lipids, blood pressures, type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose and insulin, and glycated haemoglobin. Two sets of IVs were employed: conventional genome-wide significant variants associated with each DP, filtered for pleiotropy and directionality; and biologically informed variants in chemosensory receptor genes, given the role of taste and smell perception in food choice.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Using conventional IVs, the Pescatarian DP was associated with reduced fasting insulin (βIVW = -0.10 pmol/L per SD increase in the Pescatarian DP score, 95% confidence interval -0.15, -0.04; P = 1.19 × 10-3), surviving multiple sensitivity analyses. Associations between the Unhealthy DP and elevated blood pressure and glycated haemoglobin should be interpreted cautiously; one of the two filtered IVs was strongly associated with caffeine intake, limiting the attribution of these findings to the DP itself. Chemosensory Receptor IVs yielded null findings, reflecting insufficient power.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Evidence for causal effects of DPs on cardiometabolic traits was limited, with the strongest support for a protective effect of the Pescatarian DP on fasting insulin. Chemosensory IVs demonstrated limited utility for DPs, likely reflecting the heterogeneous and complex sensory profiles of overall diets. Future efforts should consider guideline-based dietary indices to facilitate interpretability and translation.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13557626/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148919699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Neil J Perkins, Siddharth Rawat, Elizabeth A DeVilbiss, Elizabeth H Scholl, Taylor Petty, Brian Kidd, Deepak Mav, Shyamal D Peddada, Jagteshwar Grewal
{"title":"Exposure to extreme temperatures may increase the risk of preterm birth: findings from a contemporary US cohort.","authors":"Neil J Perkins, Siddharth Rawat, Elizabeth A DeVilbiss, Elizabeth H Scholl, Taylor Petty, Brian Kidd, Deepak Mav, Shyamal D Peddada, Jagteshwar Grewal","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag145","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag145","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The frequency and severity of extreme temperatures have been increasing and are expected to continue to escalate in the coming decades. Relationships between extreme temperatures and early deliveries are not well understood.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were obtained from 201 759 pregnancies with gestational age (GA) of >27 weeks in the Consortium on Safe Labor retrospective cohort study from 19 hospitals across the USA for 2002-8. Location-specific bulk temperatures were obtained from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (4-km resolution), from which participants were linked to minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperatures across each day of pregnancy. Days were categorized for each site as cold (both minimum and maximum temperatures ≤ 20th percentile), hot (both minimum and maximum temperatures ≥ 80th percentile), or neither for each pregnancy. Cold and hot days were then analysed individually or as the proportion within specific pregnancy windows by using Cox regression and fetuses-at-risk logistic regression models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Detrimental relations in fetuses-at-risk models were consistently observed between exposure to chronic cold and chronic heat and early delivery: odds ratio (ORcold)= 1.66, 1.40, and 1.16; ORheat = 1.20, 1.13, and 1.32 for early-preterm (GA < 34 weeks), preterm (34 ≤ GA < 37 weeks), and early-term (37 ≤ GA < 39), respectively. Associations for exposures in Trimesters 1 and 2 were mixed but clearly more detrimental in Trimester 1. The likelihood of early delivery increased with daily exposure to extreme temperatures after 27 weeks.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Future work should seek to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and to validate these findings by using more recent diverse global data.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13527869/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148864865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating lead time and overdiagnosis in cancer screening programmes: the MOCCI method.","authors":"Bor Vratanar, Maja Pohar Perme","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag167","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag167","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cancer screening enables earlier cancer diagnosis and treatment. The interval between cancer diagnosis by screening and the symptomatic detection in the absence of screening is termed lead time. If a patient's tumour, detected by screening, would never surface clinically, the patient is considered overdiagnosed. Estimating these quantities is crucial for evaluating cancer screening programmes.</p><p><strong>Development: </strong>We developed MOCCI (Minimizing Observed and Counterfactual Cancer Incidence), a novel parametric method for estimating the lead time distribution. MOCCI compares age- and calendar-stratified cancer incidence between individuals invited to screening and those not invited and estimates the lead time distribution that minimizes the incidence difference between the two groups. The probability of overdiagnosis is then estimated by comparing the model-predicted lead time with the time to death from other causes.</p><p><strong>Application: </strong>In an application to the Slovenian breast cancer screening programme, we estimated that 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20% to 39%) of screen-detected cases were non-progressive and 33% (95% CI, 25% to 43%) were overdiagnosed; assuming an exponential lead time distribution for progressive cancers, the mean lead time was 1.8 years (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.9).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study proposes a new method for estimating lead time and overdiagnosis. The proposed method (a) can accommodate various lead time distributions, (b) yields a lead time distribution that is aligned with the observed excess incidence arising from screening, and (c) enables the separation of different sources of overdiagnosis. The method provides stable estimates when sample sizes are large and the assumed lead time model is simple.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13487635/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148792742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Siyu Chen, Yiwen Liang, Shan Luo, Jie Zheng, Satoshi Yoshiji, Grace M Power, Zikun Xu, Stephen Burgess, Benjamin John Cowling, Hugh Simon Lam, Albert Martin Li, Gabriel Matthew Leung, Catherine Mary Schooling, Shiu Lun Au Yeung
{"title":"Elucidating the proteomic pathways linking childhood body mass index with type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomization and recall-by-genotype study.","authors":"Siyu Chen, Yiwen Liang, Shan Luo, Jie Zheng, Satoshi Yoshiji, Grace M Power, Zikun Xu, Stephen Burgess, Benjamin John Cowling, Hugh Simon Lam, Albert Martin Li, Gabriel Matthew Leung, Catherine Mary Schooling, Shiu Lun Au Yeung","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag165","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag165","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Increased childhood adiposity contributes to higher type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Furthermore, whether these mechanistic pathways are shared across ethnic groups has not been explored.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a two-step Mendelian randomization (MR) using European-based summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of childhood body mass index (BMI) (n = 61 111), adulthood proteomics (n = 35 559), and later life T2D (cases: 242 283; controls: 1 569 734). We also conducted a recall-by-genotype (RbG) study in a Chinese birth cohort (n = 250) to assess whether childhood BMI was associated with the identified proteomic signals in an East Asian population. Analyses included multi-instrument MR methods (inverse variance weighted and MR-Egger) and, for single-instrument proteins, cis-MR using the Wald ratio, with colocalization validation. Multiple testing was adjusted using false discovery rate (FDR).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Higher genetically predicted childhood BMI was associated with 1299 proteins (FDR-adjusted P < .05), of which 36 proteins were associated with higher T2D risk. Six proteins were supported by colocalization (PPH4 > 80%). Genetically predicted higher childhood BMI was positively associated with GCKR, RBP1, ENTPD6, and GST A1-1, and inversely associated with PRSS27 and SHBG. The proportion of the BMI-T2D effect mediated by these proteins ranged from 1.87% to 12.92%. However, only SHBG was replicated in Asians in the RbG study.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our study identified putative actionable proteins that could reduce the elevated T2D risk attributable to childhood adiposity in Europeans, but their relevance in Asian populations requires further investigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13485351/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148792748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Niklas Andersson, Anna Zettergren, Maria Ödling, Elin Dahlén, Göran Pershagen, Magnus Wickman, Anne-Sophie Merritt, Erik Melén, Inger Kull, Sandra Ekström, Anna Bergström
{"title":"Response rates and representativeness from birth to young adulthood in a Swedish birth cohort.","authors":"Niklas Andersson, Anna Zettergren, Maria Ödling, Elin Dahlén, Göran Pershagen, Magnus Wickman, Anne-Sophie Merritt, Erik Melén, Inger Kull, Sandra Ekström, Anna Bergström","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag196","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag196","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In birth-cohort studies, response rates generally decline over time. We aimed to evaluate representativeness and identify predictors of retention up to young adulthood in a population-based birth cohort originally focused on asthma and allergies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The Barn/Child, Allergy, Milieu, Stockholm, Epidemiology (BAMSE) birth cohort was established in 1994-6 in Stockholm, Sweden. We utilized data from questionnaires and Swedish registers to compare the characteristics of participants at age 24 years (n = 3064) with those of the original cohort (n = 4089) and the general population born in 1994-6 in Stockholm county (n = 68 378) and Sweden (n = 310 976). Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of retention at age 24 years.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The response rate declined over time and was higher in females than in males in adolescence and young adulthood (80.0% versus 70.0% at age 24 years). Compared with the original cohort, participants at age 24 years more often had dispensed asthma medications (6.6% versus 5.8%) and university education (52.6% versus 47.8%), but had less often a mother who smoked during pregnancy (9.6% versus 10.8%). Similar patterns were observed in comparisons with the general population. Female sex [odds ratio (OR) 1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-2.05] and high parental education (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12-1.59) were the predominant predictors of retention in the cohort.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Female sex, higher socio-economic status, and asthma were predictive factors of retention in the cohort after 24 years. This may have influenced the observed prevalence rates of asthma and allergies, and associations between potential risk factors and outcomes associated with retention.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13568472/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148944723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cosmika Goswami, Tanja Mueller, Amanj Kurdi, Ewan Pearson, Khaled Bedir, Alexandra Tolfrey, Hazel Close, Marion Bennie
{"title":"Data Resource Profile: Medicines in Acute and Chronic Care in Scotland (MACCS).","authors":"Cosmika Goswami, Tanja Mueller, Amanj Kurdi, Ewan Pearson, Khaled Bedir, Alexandra Tolfrey, Hazel Close, Marion Bennie","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag187","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag187","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13585169/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148989768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Gabriela Almeida Rodrigues, Patrícia Carvalho Silva Balieiro, Alexandre Vilhena Silva-Neto, Fernando Almeida-Val, Patrícia Takako Endo, Vanderson de Souza Sampaio
{"title":"Clinical and social determinants of COVID-19 lethality and ICU admission across variant waves in the Brazilian Amazon.","authors":"Maria Gabriela Almeida Rodrigues, Patrícia Carvalho Silva Balieiro, Alexandre Vilhena Silva-Neto, Fernando Almeida-Val, Patrícia Takako Endo, Vanderson de Souza Sampaio","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag190","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag190","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The state of Amazonas, located in the Brazilian Amazon, was disproportionately affected during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a population-based cohort study including all confirmed COVID-19 cases (2020-2) in the state of Amazonas, located in northern Brazil, linking data from three surveillance systems with cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Outcomes included death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and a composite severity outcome.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among 420 819 cases, 378 142 (89.9%) had ILI and 42 677 (10.1%) had SARS. A substantial burden of severe outcomes was observed among SARS cases, with ∼25% (n = 8910/35 909) of patients admitted to the ICU, 21.1% (n = 7229/34 323) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, and 36.7% (n = 14 971/40 837) dying. Male sex [odds ratio (OR) = 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.31; P < .001], age of ≥70 years (OR = 13.73; 95% CI: 11.97-15.76; P < .001), Indigenous ethnicity (OR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85-2.91; P < .001), dyspnea (OR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.82-2.19; P < .001), loss of smell (OR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.31-1.81; P < .001), and comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease (OR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.58-2.39; P < .001), chronic respiratory disease (OR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.08-1.77; P < .05), diabetes (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03-1.22; P < .05), obesity (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.13-1.51; P < .001), and immunosuppression (OR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.48-2.44; P < .001), were independently associated with a higher risk of death. Lethality increased significantly during the Gamma wave (OR = 3.76; 95% CI: 3.34-4.24; P < .001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The severity of COVID-19 in Amazonas was shaped by biological, structural, and viral factors, highlighting the need for equitable strengthening of the health system.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148989709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The New Modern Medicine: Disease, Evidence, and Epidemiological Medicine, by Jonathan Fuller","authors":"Alex Broadbent","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag147","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148896058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shubhankar Sharma, Jo Mhairi Hale, Angelo Lorenti, Solveig Cunningham
{"title":"Loneliness and cognitive function in later life: a population-based counterfactual analysis.","authors":"Shubhankar Sharma, Jo Mhairi Hale, Angelo Lorenti, Solveig Cunningham","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag212","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag212","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Loneliness is increasingly recognized as a major public health challenge. Yet, its impact on cognitive function remains poorly understood. A complex interplay of life-course risk factors makes it challenging to disentangle the effect of loneliness from other factors and to assess underlying mechanisms when using traditional approaches.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We applied the parametric g-formula with the Health and Retirement Study (1996-2018; n = 34 774; aged 50-80 years) to simulate an intervention estimating the effect of preventing loneliness on cognitive function. We assessed whether this effect varies by gender. Formal mediation analysis was also performed to assess depression as a potential pathway.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Preventing loneliness was protective against cognitive decline at all ages, with the magnitude increasing with age. Averaged across all ages, an intervention to prevent loneliness would slow cognitive decline by 0.075 points at the population level [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.063-0.089] and by 0.157 points among individuals experiencing loneliness (95% CI: 0.138-0.178). Overall, 17.3% of the total effect of preventing loneliness was mediated via depression, with the proportion mediated being 19.4% among men and 16.9% among women.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Employing an innovative counterfactual framework, this study shows that preventing loneliness could provide an insulative effect against cognitive decline, even at the population level. Importantly, with advancing age, addressing loneliness yields progressively greater cognitive benefits. The effects partly operate through reductions in depression, especially in men. Interventions against loneliness may help maintain cognitive function, with benefits extending to mental health, highlighting a promising avenue for public health strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13641825/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149109368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}