International journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Neighbourhoods’ social, built, and natural environment characteristics and body mass index in Latin American cities","authors":"Santiago Rodríguez López, Ana V Diez Roux, Natalia Tumas, Kari Moore, Olga Lucía Sarmiento, Brisa N Sánchez, Carolina Pérez-Ferrer, Sandra Flores-Alvarado, Mónica Mazariegos, Usama Bilal, Mariana Lazo","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf047","url":null,"abstract":"Background Features of neighbourhoods affect body mass index (BMI) but this has been poorly acknowledged within the highly heterogeneous and unequal contexts of Latin American cities. We evaluated associations between social, built, and natural environment characteristics of neighbourhoods with BMI, and investigated whether these associations were modified by individual socioeconomic position (SEP). Methods We linked individual data (n = 43 968) from national health surveys to data on neighbourhoods (n = 3428) and cities (n = 165) in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Linear mixed models were used to estimate associations between neighbourhood education, intersection density, and greenness with BMI, adjusting for individual- and city-level characteristics. Results Associations between neighbourhood education and BMI varied by country, in both magnitude and direction. In Argentina and Chile, higher neighbourhood education was associated with lower BMI. This negative association was also observed among women in Colombia and Mexico, although it was weaker. Among men in Colombia and Mexico, however, the association was positive. Associations of neighbourhood intersection density and greenness with BMI were less robust. In general, we did not find strong evidence of effect modification by individual SEP. Conclusion Neighbourhood education is associated with BMI beyond individual and city characteristics, although the associations are heterogenous across countries and by gender. Associations with built and natural features were less clear. Our results highlight the relevance of context-specific analysis for planning interventions that are aimed to reduce BMI and its unequal distribution in Latin American cities.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: Lifepool.","authors":"Lisa Devereux, John Hopper, Carolyn Nickson, Bruce Mann, Stephen B Fox, Dinuka Ariyaratne, Luisa La Greca, Pietro Proccopio, Leanne Carlson, Sally Doncovio, Vicki White, Luke Neill, Paul James, Ian Campbell","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf044","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12005897/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144007325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between cumulative pack-year smoking exposure and sarcopenia: a KoGES cohort study.","authors":"Sae Rom Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee, Eun Ju Park, Youngin Lee, Jung In Choi, Ryuk-Jun Kwon, Soo Min Son, Jeong Gyu Lee, Yu Hyeon Yi, Young Jin Tak, Seung-Hun Lee, Gyu Lee Kim, Young Jin Ra, Young Hye Cho","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf035","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sarcopenia is the age-related involuntary loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength. Many factors, such as ageing and behaviour, may affect the risk of sarcopenia. However, no study had confirmed the association between cumulative exposure to smoking and the risk of developing sarcopenia. Therefore, in this study we investigated the association between cumulative smoking exposure and the risk of sarcopenia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>After excluding some invalid data, 8818 participants aged 40-69 years were included in the Korean Genomics and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) cohort, spanning 16 years (2001-2016). Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on biennial measurements of the appendicular lean mass index using bioelectrical impedance analysis following the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) criteria. Smoking status and cumulative smoking exposure were self-reported at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to assess sarcopenia occurrence based on smoking status and cumulative smoking amount after adjusting for age, sex, medical history, marital status, alcohol consumption and smoking habits, protein intake, and physical activity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study induced 8818 participants with an average age of 51.9 years; 44.5% were men, and the mean follow-up duration was 8.4 years. After adjusting for covariates, smokers exhibited a higher risk of sarcopenia than non-smokers, with a hazard ratio of 1.279 (95% confidence interval: 1.064-1.657). Moreover, there was a dose-response relationship between cumulative smoking exposure and sarcopenia risk, with hazard ratios increasing with higher pack-year values relative to non-smokers.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Cumulative smoking exposure, measured in pack-years, was associated with increased sarcopenia incidence in a Korean cohort.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143964735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of violence and COVID-19 on Mexico's life-expectancy losses and recent bounce-back, 2015-22.","authors":"Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa,Paola Vázquez-Castillo,Maria Gargiulo,José Manuel Aburto","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf034","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUNDBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy in Mexico stagnated from the early 2000s, mainly due to increased homicides. During the pandemic, Mexico experienced sizable excess mortality. We aimed to assess the contribution of violence, COVID-19, and causes of death that were amenable to healthcare to life-expectancy changes between 2015 and 2022 in Mexico.METHODSWe used administrative mortality and adjusted population estimates to construct life tables. We applied demographic methods to untangle contributions of causes of death to life-expectancy changes by year and sex at the subnational level.RESULTSBetween 2015 and 2019, life expectancy declined from 71.8 to 71.1 years for males and stagnated at 77.6 years for females. Violence among young males explains most of the decline (54.3%). Between 2019 and 2020, life expectancy decreased by 7.1 and 4.4 years for males and females, respectively. COVID-19 accounted for 55.4% of that change for males and 57.7% for females. In 2021, male life expectancy stagnated but continued to decline for females by 0.44 years due to COVID-19 deaths. In 2022, we observed unequal recovery patterns in life expectancy across regions, as northern states experienced larger improvements than central and southern states.CONCLUSIONWe documented large variations in life-expectancy losses across Mexican states before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the pandemic, violence accounted for most of the male life-expectancy losses. During the pandemic, following COVID-19 deaths, mortality due to diabetes and causes that were amenable to healthcare contributed considerably to observed losses, with an uneven impact on the sexes.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"272 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143841265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustained excess all-cause mortality post COVID-19 in 21 countries: an ecological investigation.","authors":"Chryso Th Pallari, Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, Mohammad R Rahmanian Haghighi, Minh Tam Phan, Andreas Artemiou, Catherine M Bennett, Joseph Cuthbertson, Claudia Zimmermann, Eva Schernhammer, Catharina Vernemmen, Serge Nganda Mekogo, Jackeline C P Lobato, Laylla Macedo, Maria Athanasiadou, Laust H Mortensen, Julia A Critchley, Lucy P Goldsmith, Gleb Denissov, Nolwenn Le Meur, Levan Kandelaki, Nino Chikhladze, Kostas Athanasakis, Binyamin Binyaminy, Tamar Maor, Enza Caruso, Giuseppe Ambrosio, Cyndy Martial, Marie Chan Sun, Terje P Hagen, Manuel Barron, Mario Chong, Błażej Łyszczarz, Ivan Erzen, José Antonio Cernuda Martínez, Pedro Arcos González, Bo Burstrom, Wenjing Tao, Qian Huang, Antonis Polemitis, Andreas Charalambous, Christiana A Demetriou","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf075","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf075","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Despite widespread vaccination efforts, significant excess mortality continued in various countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to estimate excess mortality during 2022 in 21 countries and regions, and to examine the relationship of governmental control measures and vaccination rates with excess mortality during 2021-2 at an ecological level.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Excess mortality for 2022 was estimated by analysing weekly mortality data from January 2020 to December 2022 across 21 countries and regions participating in the C-MOR consortium. This was achieved by comparing the observed age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 population to a baseline derived from historical data (2015-19). Governmental control measures and vaccination efforts were investigated for their association with weekly excess mortality during 2021-2 in multilevel models with country as a random effect.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All 21 countries experienced excess mortality in 2022, ranging from 8.6 (Peru) to 116.2 (Georgia) per 100 000 population, noting that rates were not directly comparable across countries. Many countries had higher excess mortality in 2022 compared with previous years. Mauritius showed a significant excess mortality for the first time in 2022. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths relative to total deaths decreased in 2022 for most countries, except Australia. Governmental control measures and vaccinations were associated with reduced excess mortality in 2021 and 2022, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study reveals sustained excess mortality throughout 2022. Excess deaths were mainly non-COVID-19-related, likely due to displaced mortality or to broader long-term impacts of the pandemic response. Governmental control policies and vaccination efforts were associated with lower excess mortality. These findings provide critical insights into pandemic mortality dynamics and emphasize the need for continued vigilance and adaptive public health strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12150023/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144258020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sample-size determination for decentralized clinical trials.","authors":"Feng Tian, Ruitao Lin, Suyu Liu, Ying Yuan","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf053","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf053","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Decentralized clinical trials (DCTs) are increasingly recognized and utilized in epidemiology studies and drug development. A critical step in designing DCTs is determining the sample size-a topic that is insufficiently covered in the literature. This paper aims to propose a sample-size-calculation method for designing DCTs.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A key challenge in analysing DCTs is that data collected onsite and offsite may differ in both variance and mean. The proposed approach employs the weighted z-test to account for such heterogeneity and combines test statistics based on onsite and offsite data. Closed-form sample-size formulas are derived for both cross-sectional studies with independent data and longitudinal or cluster studies with correlated data. The validity of the method is demonstrated by using two examples: cardiovascular disease and pain-management trials.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our theoretical derivations and numerical studies show that the proposed method enables accurate and robust sample-size determination for DCTs across varying effect sizes, intraclass correlation coefficients for correlated data, variances of onsite and offsite measurements, and ratios of onsite and offsite patients. Compared with the conventional sample-size formula developed for traditional trials involving onsite patients only, the proposed method offers more precise sample-size determination and better preservation of the study power.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The proposed method offers an accurate and easy-to-use tool, supported by user-friendly software, for determining sample sizes for DCTs, encompassing both cross-sectional and longitudinal or cluster trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12092086/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144109877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association of age at menarche with type 2 diabetes mellitus among urban Indian women: results from the CARRS study.","authors":"Ishita Gupta,Dimple Kondal,Sailesh Mohan,Mohan Deepa,Ranjit M Anjana,Mohammed K Ali,K M Venkat Narayan,Viswanathan Mohan,Nikhil Tandon,Dorairaj Prabhakaran,Shivani A Patel","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf049","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUNDEarly onset of menarche is associated with hormonal alterations that may predispose women to diabetes. We investigated the association between age at menarche and incident diabetes in India, a setting with declining menarche age and increasing burden of diabetes.METHODSData were from the Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia study. Women free of diabetes at baseline (2010-12) were followed until 2021 for incident diabetes, defined as prior medical diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dl or HbA1c ≥6.5%. Age at menarche, in years was collected through self-report. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, controlling for socio-demographic factors and potentially confounding clinical parameters, estimated the association [hazard ratio (HR)] of menarche age with incident diabetes. Effect modification by obesity status was also assessed.RESULTSOf 3654 women at risk of diabetes at baseline, mean age was 37.7 [Standard Deviation (SD) = 10.4] years and mean age of menarche was 13.9 (SD = 1.3) years. Younger women (age 20-39 years) had an earlier onset of menarche compared to older women. Over 11 years of follow-up (median: 9.2 years), we observed 390 cases of diabetes [cumulative incidence (CI): 10.7%, 95% CI 9.32-12.33; incidence rate: 12.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 11.23-13.69)]. There was no association between age at menarche and incident diabetes, HR = 1.04 (95% CI 0.95-1.14). The null association was consistent in models stratified by obesity status.CONCLUSIONWe did not find evidence of an association between age at menarche and incident diabetes in this large cohort of Indian women.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143849549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: The Ontario Mental Health and Intersectionality Data Surveillance (Ontario-MINDS) Cohort.","authors":"Kelly K Anderson, Rebecca Rodrigues, Martin Rotenberg, Jordan Edwards, Britney Le","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf076","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf076","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12133260/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144215769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting COVID-19, influenza, and RSV hospitalizations over winter 2023-4 in England.","authors":"Jonathon Mellor, Maria L Tang, Owen Jones, Thomas Ward, Steven Riley, Sarah R Deeny","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf066","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Seasonal respiratory viruses cause substantial pressure on healthcare systems, particularly over winter. System managers can mitigate the impact on patient care when they anticipate hospital admissions due to these viruses. Hospitalization forecasts were used widely during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Now, resurgent seasonal respiratory pathogens add complexity to system planning. We describe how a suite of forecasts for respiratory pathogens, embedded in national and regional decision-making structures, were used to mitigate the impact on hospital systems and patient care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed forecasting models to predict hospital admissions and bed occupancy 2 weeks ahead for COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in England over winter 2023-4. Bed occupancy forecasts were informed by the ensemble admissions models. Forecasts were delivered in real time at multiple scales. The use of sample-based forecasting allowed effective reconciliation and trend interpretation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Admission forecasts, particularly RSV and influenza, showed high efficacy at regional levels. Bed occupancy forecasts had well-calibrated coverage owing to informative admissions forecasts and slower moving trends. National admissions forecasts had mean absolute percentage errors of 27.3%, 30.9%, and 15.7% for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, respectively, with corresponding 90% coverages of 0.439, 0.807, and 0.779.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These real-time winter infectious disease forecasts produced by the UK Health Security Agency for healthcare system managers played an informative role in mitigating seasonal pressures. The models were delivered regularly and shared widely across the system to key users. This was achieved by producing reliable, fast, and epidemiologically informed ensembles of models, though a higher diversity of model approaches could have improved forecast accuracy.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144225417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations of psychosocial and physical work demands with all-cause mortality: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies","authors":"Kamilia Tanjung, Prakash K. C., Saila Kyrönlahti, Marcel Goldberg, Clas-Håkan Nygård, Subas Neupane","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf045","url":null,"abstract":"Background The findings regarding mortality risk attributable to psychosocial and physical work demands are inconsistent. Pooled estimates using participant-level data from multiple cohort studies may provide more conclusive evidence. Methods Four prospective cohort studies conducted in England, Finland, France, and the USA were used (age 36–62 years; n = 41 760). We studied 34 903 and 36 076 individuals who had baseline (1981–2005) information on self-reported psychosocial and physical work demands, respectively. All-cause mortality until the year 2018 was ascertained through linkage to national registers, National Death Index, and company databases. We investigated the associations of psychosocial and physical demands with all-cause mortality separately for females and males using Cox regression models that were adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we calculated pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for moderate and high exposure levels. Results During the mean follow-up of 25 years, 2105 deaths occurred among females and 5048 deaths occurred among males with information on psychosocial demands. The corresponding numbers for those with information on physical demands were 2176 and 5101. Fully adjusted models indicated that psychosocial demands were associated with both lower and higher all-cause mortality risks in both sexes. Physical demands increased the risk of all-cause mortality in both sexes and the association was strongest among males with moderate exposure levels (pooled hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.02–1.19). Conclusion The relationship between psychosocial work demands and all-cause mortality remains inconclusive, whereas moderate physical work demands increase the mortality risk among males.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"218 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}