International journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.","authors":"Andrea Brizzi, Joseph Kagaayi, Robert Ssekubugu, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Alexandra Blenkinsop, David Bonsall, Larry W Chang, Christophe Fraser, Ronald M Galiwango, Godfrey Kigozi, Imogen Kyle, Mélodie Monod, Gertrude Nakigozi, Fred Nalugoda, Joseph G Rosen, Oliver Laeyendecker, Thomas C Quinn, M Kate Grabowski, Steven J Reynolds, Oliver Ratmann","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf126","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf126","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viraemia is concentrating.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013 and 2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, 1-year age bands, and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population by using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia is concentrated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 years and men aged 30-34 years were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or having already achieved 95-95-95 targets.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12343087/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144835061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: The New Zealand Best Start study (Kia Tīmata Pai).","authors":"Richie Poulton, Tugce Bakir-Demir, Hayley Guiney, Jesse Kokaua, Karen Salmon, Elizabeth Schaughency, Mele Taumoepeau, Amanda Clifford, Jimmy McLauchlan, Clair Edgeler, Natasha Maruariki, Stuart McNaughton, Peter Gluckman, Justin O'Sullivan, Ran Wei, Anita Trudgen, Elaine Reese","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf103","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf103","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12255882/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144617419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mammography screening and incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in Italy: an age-period-cohort analysis.","authors":"Lauro Bucchi, Silvia Mancini, Annibale Biggeri, Rosa Vattiato, Orietta Giuliani, Alessandra Ravaioli, Flavia Baldacchini, Federica Zamagni, Fabio Falcini","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf102","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf102","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The increasing incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is attributed to mammography screening, but the trend has so far been evaluated only descriptively.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We report an age-period-cohort modelling analysis of the incidence trend (1992-2017) observed among screening-aged women living in a region of northern Italy, where a mammography screening programme was implemented in 1996-98 (age 50-69 years) and 2010-14 (age 45-49 and 70-74 years).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of DCIS increased by an annual average of 9.1% (age 60-64 years) to 14.9% (age 70-74 years). The incidence peak followed a complex age-time pattern indicating an interaction between age and period, which suggested a cohort effect explained by the screening programme. In the age-period-cohort analysis, the birth cohort had a 2-fold effect. The nonlinear effect consisted of an increase in incidence for the generations of 1933-42 and 1943-52, targeted by screening since 1997, and of a second increase for the cohort of 1963-72, first invited in 2010. Taking into account the early excess incidence due to the introduction of the screening programme, the linear effect consisted of an annual 4.0% increase in the risk of DCIS for all successive birth cohorts or calendar periods, which was only partially attributable to the programme.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The increase in incidence rates resulted from an increased detection of DCIS through the screening programme and from an uptrend in the risk of diagnosis that can be attributed either to long-term changes in diagnostic scrutiny independent of the programme or to an increased exposure to risk factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12188216/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144484318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-term effect of temperature on cause-specific, sex-specific, and age-specific ambulance dispatches in Czechia: a nationwide time-series analysis","authors":"Tomáš Janoš, Joan Ballester, Raúl F Méndez-Turrubiates, Pavel Čupr, Hicham Achebak","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf051","url":null,"abstract":"Background Although several studies have investigated temperature-related mortality and morbidity, only a little is known about the short-term effects of temperature on ambulance dispatches. We aimed to conduct the first nationwide analysis of the association between temperatures and ambulance dispatches in Europe, including, for the first time, a detailed description of age-specific risks for 10-year age groups. Methods We collected daily data on ambulance dispatches and climate (i.e. temperature and relative humidity) for each district of Czechia (n = 77) during 2010–19. We estimated the relationship for each district by using a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models. We then applied a multilevel multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive regional and countrywide average associations and calculated the burden of ambulance dispatches that was attributable to non-optimum temperatures. Results The susceptibility to low (high) temperatures increased (decreased) with age, except for the youth (&amp;lt;20 years), for whom the risks for both heat and cold were the highest. High temperatures contributed slightly to the risk of ambulance dispatches due to respiratory and cardiovascular causes, while the contribution of low temperatures was substantial. The overall ambulance dispatches burden that was attributable to non-optimum temperatures (optimum temperature = 7.9°C) was 3.55% (95% eCI: 3.43 to 3.67), with a predominant contribution of heat [2.32% (95% eCI: 2.15 to 2.46)] compared with cold [1.23% (95% eCI: 1.16 to 1.30)]. Conclusion This data can be used as an early-warning indicator for temperature impacts, especially among vulnerable population subgroups, such as children, adolescents, and young adults. This evidence has important implications for healthcare system preparedness and management, and for the projections of climate change health impacts.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How COVID-19 affected academic publishing: a 3-year study of 17 million research papers","authors":"Matthew Whitaker, Sabrina Rodrigues, Graham Cooke, Bérangère Virlon, Christl A Donnelly, Helen Ward, Paul Elliott, Marc Chadeau-Hyam","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf058","url":null,"abstract":"Background The COVID-19 pandemic induced an unprecedented response from the scientific research community. Previous studies have described disruption of the norms of academic publishing during this time. This study uses an epidemiological statistical toolkit alongside machine-learning methods to investigate the functioning of the scientific information-generation and -consumption ecosystem throughout the pandemic. Methods A dataset of 17 million scientific research papers that were published between January 2019 and December 2022 was analysed. Data on citations and Altmetrics were harvested, and topic modelling was applied to abstracts. COVID-19-related articles were identified from title text. We investigated publication dynamics, correlations between citation metrics and Altmetrics, rates of publication in preprints, and temporal trends in topics, and compared these metrics in COVID-19 papers vs non-COVID-19 papers. Results Throughout 2020–2, 3.7% of English-language research output was on the topic of COVID-19. Journal articles on COVID-19 were published at a consistent rate during this period, while preprints peaked in early 2020 and decreased thereafter. COVID-19 preprints had lower publication rates in the peer-reviewed literature than other preprints, particularly those that were preprinted during early 2020. COVID-19 research received significantly more media and social media attention than non-COVID-19 research, and preprints received more attention, on average, than journal articles, with attention peaking during the initial wave and subsequent peaks corresponding to the emergence of novel variants. COVID-19 articles exhibited a higher correlation between Altmetrics and citation metrics compared with non-COVID-19 publications, suggesting a strong alignment between scientific and public attention. Conclusion This study provides a comprehensive description of the rapid expansion of COVID-19 research, revealing evolving research areas and waxing and waning public interest across different topics. Preprints played an important role in disseminating scientific findings, but the level of coverage of preprinted findings emphasizes the need for guidelines in handling preprint research in media, particularly during a pandemic.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144145892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Practical application of hybrid effectiveness–implementation studies for intervention research","authors":"Margaret A Handley, Leah D Murphy, Elizabeth B Sherwin, Starley B Shade","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf039","url":null,"abstract":"Hybrid effectiveness–implementation studies have emerged to address design challenges that researchers face when assessing evidence-based intervention implementation in real-world settings. Hybrid studies maximize the usefulness of effectiveness studies by allowing both effectiveness and implementation research questions to be included in the same study, regardless of the research design (observational, individually randomized trials, cluster-randomized trials, preference designs, adaptive designs, etc). Hybrid studies utilize implementation science methods to facilitate integration of research findings into public health programming, health-care practice, and community and policy settings. In this article, we describe the three types of hybrid studies, which exist on a continuum depending on the emphasis placed on the effectiveness vs the implementation research questions. We discuss common implementation outcomes with examples of how the stage (or phase) of implementation can influence selection of implementation outcomes. We then summarize hybrid study examples from recent literature and present practical considerations when designing a hybrid study. Finally, we outline examples of implementation-focused research questions to consider asking by phase of implementation and discuss related sampling approaches.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143910200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neighbourhoods’ social, built, and natural environment characteristics and body mass index in Latin American cities","authors":"Santiago Rodríguez López, Ana V Diez Roux, Natalia Tumas, Kari Moore, Olga Lucía Sarmiento, Brisa N Sánchez, Carolina Pérez-Ferrer, Sandra Flores-Alvarado, Mónica Mazariegos, Usama Bilal, Mariana Lazo","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf047","url":null,"abstract":"Background Features of neighbourhoods affect body mass index (BMI) but this has been poorly acknowledged within the highly heterogeneous and unequal contexts of Latin American cities. We evaluated associations between social, built, and natural environment characteristics of neighbourhoods with BMI, and investigated whether these associations were modified by individual socioeconomic position (SEP). Methods We linked individual data (n = 43 968) from national health surveys to data on neighbourhoods (n = 3428) and cities (n = 165) in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Linear mixed models were used to estimate associations between neighbourhood education, intersection density, and greenness with BMI, adjusting for individual- and city-level characteristics. Results Associations between neighbourhood education and BMI varied by country, in both magnitude and direction. In Argentina and Chile, higher neighbourhood education was associated with lower BMI. This negative association was also observed among women in Colombia and Mexico, although it was weaker. Among men in Colombia and Mexico, however, the association was positive. Associations of neighbourhood intersection density and greenness with BMI were less robust. In general, we did not find strong evidence of effect modification by individual SEP. Conclusion Neighbourhood education is associated with BMI beyond individual and city characteristics, although the associations are heterogenous across countries and by gender. Associations with built and natural features were less clear. Our results highlight the relevance of context-specific analysis for planning interventions that are aimed to reduce BMI and its unequal distribution in Latin American cities.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: Lifepool.","authors":"Lisa Devereux, John Hopper, Carolyn Nickson, Bruce Mann, Stephen B Fox, Dinuka Ariyaratne, Luisa La Greca, Pietro Proccopio, Leanne Carlson, Sally Doncovio, Vicki White, Luke Neill, Paul James, Ian Campbell","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf044","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12005897/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144007325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between cumulative pack-year smoking exposure and sarcopenia: a KoGES cohort study.","authors":"Sae Rom Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee, Eun Ju Park, Youngin Lee, Jung In Choi, Ryuk-Jun Kwon, Soo Min Son, Jeong Gyu Lee, Yu Hyeon Yi, Young Jin Tak, Seung-Hun Lee, Gyu Lee Kim, Young Jin Ra, Young Hye Cho","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf035","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sarcopenia is the age-related involuntary loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength. Many factors, such as ageing and behaviour, may affect the risk of sarcopenia. However, no study had confirmed the association between cumulative exposure to smoking and the risk of developing sarcopenia. Therefore, in this study we investigated the association between cumulative smoking exposure and the risk of sarcopenia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>After excluding some invalid data, 8818 participants aged 40-69 years were included in the Korean Genomics and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) cohort, spanning 16 years (2001-2016). Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on biennial measurements of the appendicular lean mass index using bioelectrical impedance analysis following the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) criteria. Smoking status and cumulative smoking exposure were self-reported at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to assess sarcopenia occurrence based on smoking status and cumulative smoking amount after adjusting for age, sex, medical history, marital status, alcohol consumption and smoking habits, protein intake, and physical activity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study induced 8818 participants with an average age of 51.9 years; 44.5% were men, and the mean follow-up duration was 8.4 years. After adjusting for covariates, smokers exhibited a higher risk of sarcopenia than non-smokers, with a hazard ratio of 1.279 (95% confidence interval: 1.064-1.657). Moreover, there was a dose-response relationship between cumulative smoking exposure and sarcopenia risk, with hazard ratios increasing with higher pack-year values relative to non-smokers.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Cumulative smoking exposure, measured in pack-years, was associated with increased sarcopenia incidence in a Korean cohort.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143964735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of violence and COVID-19 on Mexico's life-expectancy losses and recent bounce-back, 2015-22.","authors":"Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa,Paola Vázquez-Castillo,Maria Gargiulo,José Manuel Aburto","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf034","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUNDBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy in Mexico stagnated from the early 2000s, mainly due to increased homicides. During the pandemic, Mexico experienced sizable excess mortality. We aimed to assess the contribution of violence, COVID-19, and causes of death that were amenable to healthcare to life-expectancy changes between 2015 and 2022 in Mexico.METHODSWe used administrative mortality and adjusted population estimates to construct life tables. We applied demographic methods to untangle contributions of causes of death to life-expectancy changes by year and sex at the subnational level.RESULTSBetween 2015 and 2019, life expectancy declined from 71.8 to 71.1 years for males and stagnated at 77.6 years for females. Violence among young males explains most of the decline (54.3%). Between 2019 and 2020, life expectancy decreased by 7.1 and 4.4 years for males and females, respectively. COVID-19 accounted for 55.4% of that change for males and 57.7% for females. In 2021, male life expectancy stagnated but continued to decline for females by 0.44 years due to COVID-19 deaths. In 2022, we observed unequal recovery patterns in life expectancy across regions, as northern states experienced larger improvements than central and southern states.CONCLUSIONWe documented large variations in life-expectancy losses across Mexican states before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the pandemic, violence accounted for most of the male life-expectancy losses. During the pandemic, following COVID-19 deaths, mortality due to diabetes and causes that were amenable to healthcare contributed considerably to observed losses, with an uneven impact on the sexes.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"272 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143841265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}