International journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Development of a registration interval correction model for enhancing excess all-cause mortality surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Anna A Sordo, Anna A Do, Melissa J Irwin, David J Muscatello","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae145","url":null,"abstract":"Background Estimates of excess deaths provide critical intelligence on the impact of population health threats including seasonal respiratory infections, pandemics and environmental hazards. Timely estimates of excess deaths can inform the response to COVID-19. However, access to timely mortality data is challenging due to the time interval between the death occurring and the date the death is registered and available for analysis (‘registration interval’). Development Using data from the New South Wales, Australia, Births Deaths and Marriages Registry, we developed a Poisson regression model that estimated near-complete weekly counts, for a given week of death, from partially-complete death registration counts. A 10-weeks lag was considered, and a 2-year baseline of historical registration intervals was used to correct lag weeks. Application Validation of estimated counts found that the root-mean-square error (as a percentage of mean observed near-complete registrations) was less than 7% for lag week 3, and <5% for lag weeks 4–9. We incorporated this method utilizing an existing rapid weekly mortality surveillance system. Counts corrected for registration interval replaced observed values for the most recent weeks. Excess death estimates, based on corrected counts, were within 1.2% of near-complete counts available 9 weeks from the end of the analysis period. Conclusions This study demonstrates a method for estimating recent death counts to correct for registration intervals. Estimates obtained at a 3-week lag were acceptable, while those at greater than 3 weeks were optimal.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142596756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Longitudinal transitions of the double burden of overweight and stunting from childhood to early adulthood in India, Peru, and Vietnam.","authors":"Nora A Escher, Rodrigo M Carrillo-Larco, Jennie C Parnham, Katherine Curi-Quinto, Suparna Ghosh-Jerath, Christopher Millett, Paraskevi Seferidi","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae151","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae151","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Examining trajectories of undernutrition and overnutrition separately limits understanding of the double burden of malnutrition. We investigated transitions between normal, stunting, overweight and concurrent stunting and overweight (CSO) and associations with sociodemographic factors in children and adolescents.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used data from the Young Lives cohort in India, Peru and Vietnam, which follow children 1-15 (N = 5413) and 8-22 years (N = 2225) over five rounds between 2002 and 2016. We estimated transitions between nutritional states using a Markov chain model and estimated sociodemographic associations employing a logit parametrization.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Transitions into stunting peaked in ages 1-5 years (India: 22.9%, Peru: 17.6%, Vietnam: 14.8%), while stunting reversal was highest during adolescence across all countries. Transitions into overweight peaked in ages 19-22, while overweight reversal increased in ages 1-5 and 12-15 years. Transitions away from stunting to overweight were rare; more commonly, stunted individuals developed overweight while remaining stunted, leading to a CSO state. In Peru, 20.2% of 19-year-olds who were stunted reached CSO by age 22, with 4% shifting from stunted to overweight. Reversion to a normal state is least likely for those in a CSO state. Household wealth gradually reduced the likelihood of transitioning into stunting [odds ratios (ORs) for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 0.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.41; India: 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.57; Vietnam: 0.36, 95% CI 0.26-0.50), with stunting reversal only being more likely in the two wealthiest quartiles across all countries (ORs for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 2.39, 95% CI 1.57-3.65; India: 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.54; Vietnam: 1.89, 95% CI 1.23-2.91). In Vietnam, only the richest quartile was at higher risk of transitioning into overweight (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.28-2.72), while in Peru and India, the risk gradually rose across all wealth quartiles (ORs for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 2.84, 95% CI 2.14-3.77; India: 2.99, 95% CI 1.61-5.54).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Childhood and adolescence represent critical periods for prevention and reversal of stunting and overweight, thereby averting the development of CSO later in life. Context-specific interventions are crucial for preventing disparate transitions towards the double burden of malnutrition across socioeconomic groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11565240/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142638936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response: Rheumatoid arthritis and cancer risk in the Million Women Study.","authors":"TienYu Owen Yang, Sarah Floud, Gillian K Reeves","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae144","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae144","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11534085/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142575834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: a national health insurance cohort study.","authors":"Jeongmin Moon,Ejin Kim,Hyemin Jang,Insung Song,Dohoon Kwon,Cinoo Kang,Jieun Oh,Jinah Park,Ayoung Kim,Moonjung Choi,Yaerin Cha,Ho Kim,Whanhee Lee","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae140","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUNDPrevious studies with large data have been widely reported that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with all-cause mortality; however, most of these studies adopted ecological time-series designs or have included limited study areas or individuals residing in well-monitored urban areas. However, nationwide cohort studies including cause-specific mortalities with different age groups were sparse. Therefore, this study examined the association between PM2.5 and cause-specific mortality in South Korea using the nationwide cohort.METHODSA longitudinal cohort with 187 917 National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort participants aged 50-79 years in enrolment between 2002 and 2019 was used. Annual average PM2.5 was collected from a machine learning-based ensemble model (a test R2 = 0.87) as an exposure. We performed a time-varying Cox regression model to examine the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality. To reduce the potential estimation bias, we adopted generalized propensity score weighting method.RESULTSThe association with long-term PM2.5 (2-year moving average) was prominent in mortalities related to diabetes mellitus [hazard ratio (HR): 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.06)], circulatory diseases [HR: 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.03)] and cancer [HR: 1.01 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.02)]. Meanwhile, circulatory-related mortalities were associated with a longer PM2.5 exposure period (1 or 2-year lags), whereas respiratory-related mortalities were associated with current-year PM2.5 exposure. In addition, the association with PM2.5 was more evident in people aged 50-64 years than in people aged 65-79 years, especially in heart failure-related deaths.CONCLUSIONSThis study identified the hypothesis that long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with mortality, and the association might be different by causes of death. Our result highlights a novel vulnerable population: the middle-aged population with risk factors related to heart failure.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142448066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Also long overdue: consideration of collider bias in guidelines and tools for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies.","authors":"Judith J M Rijnhart, Ava Rabbers, Santina Rizzuto","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae147","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142575822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: Next Steps-the longitudinal study of people in England born in 1989-90.","authors":"Alison Fang-Wei Wu, Morag Henderson, Matt Brown, Tugba Adali, Richard J Silverwood, Darina Peycheva, Lisa Calderwood","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae152","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae152","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11561396/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142619938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rothman diagrams: the geometry of confounding and standardization.","authors":"Eben Kenah","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae139","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae139","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We outline a geometric perspective on causal inference in cohort studies that can help epidemiologists understand the role of standardization in controlling for confounding. For simplicity, we focus on a binary exposure X, a binary outcome D, and a binary confounder C that is not causally affected by X. Rothman diagrams plot the risk of disease in the unexposed on the x-axis and the risk in the exposed on the y-axis. The crude risks define a point in the unit square, and the stratum-specific risks at each level of C define two other points in the unit square. Standardization produces points along the line segment connecting the stratum-specific points. When there is confounding by C, the crude point is off this line segment. The set of all possible crude points is a rectangle with corners at the stratum-specific points and sides parallel to the axes. When there are more than two strata, standardization produces points in the convex hull of the stratum-specific points, and there is confounding if the crude point is outside this convex hull. We illustrate these ideas using data from a study in Newcastle, United Kingdom, in which the causal effect of smoking on 20-year mortality was confounded by age.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11565235/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142638937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Device-measured stationary behaviour and cardiovascular and orthostatic circulatory disease incidence.","authors":"Matthew N Ahmadi,Pieter Coenen,Leon Straker,Emmanuel Stamatakis","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae136","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUNDPrevious studies have indicated that standing may be beneficially associated with surrogate metabolic markers, whereas more time spent sitting has an adverse association. Studies assessing the dose-response associations of standing, sitting and composite stationary behaviour time with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and orthostatic circulatory disease are scarce and show an unclear picture.OBJECTIVETo examine associations of daily sitting, standing and stationary time with CVD and orthostatic circulatory disease incidence.METHODSWe used accelerometer data from 83 013 adults (mean age ± standard deviation = 61.3 ± 7.8; female = 55.6%) from the UK Biobank to assess daily time spent sitting and standing. Major CVD was defined as coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke. Orthostatic circulatory disease was defined as orthostatic hypotension, varicose vein, chronic venous insufficiency and venous ulcers. To estimate the dose-response hazard ratios (HR) we used Cox proportional hazards regression models and restricted cubic splines. The Fine-Gray subdistribution method was used to account for competing risks.RESULTSDuring 6.9 (±0.9) years of follow-up, 6829 CVD and 2042 orthostatic circulatory disease events occurred. When stationary time exceeded 12 h/day, orthostatic circulatory disease risk was higher by an average HR (95% confidence interval) of 0.22 (0.16, 0.29) per hour. Every additional hour above 10 h/day of sitting was associated with a 0.26 (0.18, 0.36) higher risk. Standing more than 2 h/day was associated with an 0.11 (0.05, 0.18) higher risk for every additional 30 min/day. For major CVD, when stationary time exceeded 12 h/day, risk was higher by an average of 0.13 (0.10, 0.16) per hour. Sitting time was associated with a 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) higher risk per extra hour. Time spent standing was not associated with major CVD risk.CONCLUSIONSTime spent standing was not associated with CVD risk but was associated with higher orthostatic circulatory disease risk. Time spent sitting above 10 h/day was associated with both higher orthostatic circulatory disease and major CVD risk. The deleterious associations of overall stationary time were primarily driven by sitting. Collectively, our findings indicate increasing standing time as a prescription may not lower major CVD risk and may lead to higher orthostatic circulatory disease risk.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142443769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: The ORIGINS pregnancy and birth cohort.","authors":"Jacqueline Davis, Zenobia Talati, Sarah Whalan, Wesley Billingham, Nina D'Vaz, Lisa Gibson, Susan L Prescott, Desiree T Silva","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae146","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae146","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11550191/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142619939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: The Registry-based Epidemiological Study of Cancer in Fire Unit and Emergency Officers (RESCUE) cohort.","authors":"Wonjeong Jeong, Yoon A Kim, Soo Yeon Song, Dong-Hee Koh, Hyoung-Ryoul Kim, Jae-Lim Cho, Changsoo Kim, Jae Kwan Jun","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae143","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyae143","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11512110/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142500021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}