International journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Cohort Profile: A Scottish population-level study on the outcomes of people released from prison (RELEASE)","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag220","url":null,"abstract":"<span class=\"paragraphSection\">public healthprisonmental healthsubstance useadministrative dataresettlement</span>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149226667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Familial factors in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 severity: a nationwide Danish study of adult twins and their spouses","authors":"Maria N Timofeeva, Jacob Krabbe Pedersen, Dorthe Almind Pedersen, Signe Bedsted Clemmensen, Matthew Thomas Keys, Lone Simonsen, Susanne Dam Nielsen, Katrine Lawaetz Kristensen, Kaare Christensen","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag204","url":null,"abstract":"Background Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) often clusters in families, suggesting role of shared environmental and genetic factors. We performed a nationwide Danish study of twins, their spouses, and matched population controls with the aim of disentangling the host genetic and environmental mechanisms underlying the familial clustering of SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Methods This registry-linkage study included 83 902 twins and 32 719 spouses, matched to 839 020 population controls and 327 190 spouse controls, respectively, and followed from 1 February 2020 to 31 October 2022. Testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization served as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and disease severity, respectively. We compared concordance rates and calculated heritability from biometrical modelling of these traits. Results We found no evidence of a genetic influence on infection susceptibility in the first two waves of the pandemic and a modest influence [heritability: 19.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 10.0%–28.8%] in the third wave. Spouses showed the highest concordance rates by a large margin in all waves. Our study found no evidence of a genetic predisposition to disease severity. Co-twins of hospitalized twins had no increased risk of hospitalization. By contrast, the risk of being hospitalized with COVID-19 was higher [relative risk: 3.56; 95% CI: 2.57–4.92] among the spouses of the hospitalized twins than among the controls. Conclusion Social proximity was a key determinant of infection susceptibility. A three-fold increased risk for spouses suggests that viral load and lifestyle shared between spouses were more important determinants of severe COVID-19 than genetic susceptibility.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149221339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting risk-factor distributions by sex and age, 1990–2050: a parametric estimation framework using GBD summary exposure values, demonstrated for Australia","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag223","url":null,"abstract":"<span class=\"paragraphSection\"><div class=\"boxTitle\">Background</div>This paper presents a method to convert existing Global Burden of Disease (GBD) forecasts of summary exposure values (SEVs) into business-as-usual forecasts of risk-factor distributions.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Method</div>SEVs from the GBD are a relative-risk-weighted summary of risk-factor exposure, ranging from 0 (everyone below the theoretical minimum risk exposure level) to 1 (everyone above the 99th percentile of global exposure). Given the known inputs to calculate SEVs, with one additional assumption of the coefficient of variation of the risk factor, it is possible to generate parametric distributions (e.g. log-normal, gamma) of risk-factor exposures. We demonstrate this method by forecasting SEVs to 2050 by sex, age, and year for body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose in Australia.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Results</div>Our method generates plausible age- and sex-specific risk-factor distribution forecasts for Australia. Compared with the 2017/18 National Health Survey, fasting plasma glucose and LDL cholesterol agreed reasonably well in younger age groups, with wider discrepancies at older ages. SEV-derived distributions overestimated the mean SBP by ∼3–10 mmHg and mean BMI by ∼1 kg/m² relative to survey estimates. The method was sensitive to values of the 99th global percentile of risk factors.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Conclusion</div>This method is extensible to any country or demographic group. To facilitate broader use of this method, we recommend further cross-validation studies for other countries and making key GBD data (e.g. 95th percentiles of risk factors) more publicly available.</span>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149226668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prehypertension and prediabetes in Rwandan adults aged 18–69 years: insights from the 2022 STEPwise survey","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag218","url":null,"abstract":"<span class=\"paragraphSection\"><div class=\"boxTitle\">Background</div>Prediabetes (PreDM) and prehypertension (PreHTN) are important opportunities for prevention strategies to reduce the risk of diabetes and hypertension. However, population-level data remain scarce, especially in low-income settings. Using data from the 2022 Rwanda STEPwise survey, we describe the epidemiology of PreDM and PreHTN among adults aged 18–69 years.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Methods</div>PreDM and PreHTN status were defined according to the World Health Organization and Rwanda 2024 NCD management guidelines, respectively. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine independent factors of PreDM and PreHTN.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Results</div>The study included 61.4% (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">n</span> = 3388) females and had a median (± interquartile range) age of 39 (±19) years. The overall prevalence of PreDM was 4.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7–5.3]; the prevalence of PreHTN was 22.1% (95% CI: 20.7–23.4). The prevalence of overt diabetes and hypertension was 3.0% (95% CI: 2.1–3.8) and 16.9% (95% CI: 15.7–18.1), respectively. Education (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .011), residence (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .003), central-waist obesity (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .029), and cholesterol levels (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .020) were significantly associated with PreDM. Residence (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .036), wealth status (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .023), alcohol consumption (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>&lt; .001), and fruit and vegetable intake (<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">P </span>= .039) were associated with PreHTN.<div class=\"boxTitle\">Conclusion</div>The prevalence of PreHTN is relatively high, whereas that of PreDM is moderately low. The prevalence of PreHTN was roughly one and a third times that of hypertension and that for prediabetes was about one and a half times that of diabetes. These results provide a basis for early detection and intervention during this critical clinical stage to prevent future burdens of diabetes and hypertension in Rwanda. Rwanda can leverage its functional community health-worker network to enhance screenings and provide community-based basic lifestyle counselling for those at risk of PreDM and PreHTN.</span>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149226670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Health risks of alcohol consumption in Aotearoa New Zealand: modelling to inform low-risk-drinking guidelines","authors":"Anja Mizdrak, Adam Sherk, Kristen Maynard, Tim Chambers","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag191","url":null,"abstract":"Background The present study aimed to estimate the alcohol-attributable mortality in Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa) at varying levels of alcohol consumption to help inform low-risk-drinking guidelines (LRDGs) in Aotearoa. Methods We used the New Zealand Alcohol Intervention Model—a multi-state life-table model parameterized with Aotearoa-specific alcohol and epidemiological data—to estimate the health risks associated with a daily alcohol intake of 0–100 g/day. We modelled a cohort of 12-year-olds for their life course, with exposure and disease rates fixed to 2018 levels. We used relative risk (RR) libraries developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). The primary output was years of life lost (YLL), with 17.5 YLL used as a proxy for alcohol-related death, at lifetime-risk thresholds of 1-in-100 and 1-in-1000. Results When the WHO RR library was used, males reached a 1-in-100 risk of alcohol-attributable death at 8.6 standard drinks (SDs, 10 g of ethanol) [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.1–12.0] per week, while females reach this threshold at 9.2 SDs (95% UI 3.7–12.4). The removal of health conditions receiving a one-star evidence rating from the GBD substantially reduced the number of SDs to 2.7 (95% UI 2.1–4.6) for males and 3.5 (95% UI 2.9–4.4) for females. Across all analyses, use of the GBD RR library led to more permissive results. Ethnicity-specific results showed that Māori breach the risk thresholds at lower levels of consumption than non-Māori. Conclusion Our modelling demonstrates that the Aotearoa LRDGs are outdated and need updating to reflect contemporary understandings of the harms associated with alcohol use.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149218582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response to Abnet's comments on \"Alcohol consumption and cancer risk in South Korea and the UK\".","authors":"Keum Ji Jung, Kyoungho Lee, Dae Sub Song, Ji Woo Baek, Sang Yop Shin, Sun Ha Jee, Sarah Lewington","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag134","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149181800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Processed meat, unprocessed red meat, poultry, seafood, and egg intake and stomach cancer risk: a pooled analysis of 20 cohorts.","authors":"Yang Peng, Molin Wang, Sarah K Abe, Hui Cai, Andrew T Chan, Mridul Datta, A Heather Eliassen, Edward L Giovannucci, Tao Hou, Brian Z Huang, Wen-Yi Huang, Manami Inoue, Rieko Kanehara, Woon-Puay Koh, Susanna C Larsson, Linda M Liao, Erikka Loftfield, Loïc Le Marchand, Parit Mavani, Marjorie L McCullough, Anthony B Miller, Steven C Moore, Lorelei A Mucci, Anna Prizment, Kim Robien, Thomas E Rohan, Homa Sadeghi, Norie Sawada, Marissa M Shams-White, Xiao-Ou Shu, Matthias B Schulze, Sabina Sieri, Rashmi Sinha, Guri Skeie, Mingyang Song, Meir J Stampfer, Yangbo Sun, Caroline Y Um, Piet A van den Brandt, Fenglei Wang, Renwei Wang, Emily White, Walter C Willett, Alicja Wolk, Jian-Min Yuan, Wei Zheng, Andrew Haydon, Robert J MacInnis, M Constanza Camargo, Pietro Ferrari, Graham G Giles, Roger L Milne, Stephanie A Smith-Warner, Harindra Jayasekara","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag224","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Processed meat is classified as a carcinogen and unprocessed red meat a probable carcinogen, but their associations with stomach cancer are not established. We evaluated intakes of these food groups and poultry, seafood, and eggs in relation to stomach cancer risk.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Individual-level data for 1 100 370 females and 891 919 males from 20 cohorts were analysed. Diet was assessed at baseline by using food-frequency questionnaires or diet histories generally covering the past year and harmonized across studies. We used Cox regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted study- and sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with each food group and combined study-specific estimates by using random-effects meta-analysis. We repeated analyses using an aggregated dataset combining all studies.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During follow-up (mean = 8-23 years across studies), 8561 invasive gastric adenocarcinomas were diagnosed. Processed meat intake showed weak evidence of an overall association with stomach cancer risk (HR, 1.15 for ≥45 vs <3 g/day; 95% CI, 1.00-1.32 and HR, 1.03 per 25-g/day increment; 95% CI, 0.99-1.07). This association was limited to current smokers (Pinteraction = .01) and differed by geographic region, with evidence for an association in Australian and European studies and no association observed in Asian studies (Pinteraction = .02). Positive associations with stomach cancer were observed for egg intake; no association was found for unprocessed red meat, poultry, or seafood.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Higher processed meat intake was associated with a modestly increased risk of stomach cancer among current smokers, although residual confounding by smoking dose remains possible. Findings for eggs warrant further investigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile Update: The Adverse Events Questionnaire of Medications and Vaccines (ADE-Q) in the Estonian Biobank.","authors":"Kristi Krebs, Jelisaveta Džigurski, Liis Karo-Astover, Innar Hallik, Mairo Puusepp, Roger Kikkas, Sirje Lind, Helene Alavere, Kristjan Metsalu, Jana Lass, Maris Alver, Triin Laisk, Lili Milani","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag219","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyag219","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13668355/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149181732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Authors' Response: Quasi-experiments rely on design choices: a reflection on Renson and Westreich's \"What makes a study design quasi-experimental?\"","authors":"Audrey Renson, Daniel Westreich","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag227","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149193214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Missed opportunities: lessons from Haitian AIDS patients and their relevance today.","authors":"Arthur E Pitchenik","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyag229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag229","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"55 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}