International journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Estimating excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Aotearoa New Zealand.","authors":"Michael J Plank, Pubudu Senanayake, Richard Lyon","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf093","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf093","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The excess mortality rate in Aotearoa New Zealand during the Covid-19 pandemic is frequently estimated to be among the lowest in the world. However, to facilitate international comparisons, many of the methods that have been used to estimate excess mortality do not use age-stratified data on deaths and population size, which may compromise their accuracy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a quasi-Poisson regression model for monthly all-cause deaths among New Zealand residents, controlling for age, sex, and seasonality. We fitted the model to deaths data for 2014-19. We estimated monthly excess mortality for 2020-23 as the difference between actual deaths and projected deaths according to the model. We conducted sensitivity analysis on the length of the pre-pandemic period used to fit the model. We benchmarked our results against a simple linear regression on the standardized annual mortality rate.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We estimated cumulative excess mortality in New Zealand in 2020-23 was 1040 [95% confidence interval (-1134, 2927)], equivalent to 0.7% (-0.8%, 2.0%) of expected mortality. Excess mortality was negative in 2020-21. The magnitude, timing, and age-distribution of the positive excess mortality in 2022-23 were closely matched with confirmed Covid-19 deaths.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Negative excess mortality in 2020-21 reflects very low levels of Covid-19 and major reductions in seasonal respiratory diseases during this period. In 2022-23, Covid-19 deaths were the main contributor to excess mortality, and there was little or no net non-Covid-19 excess. Overall, New Zealand experienced one of the lowest rates of pandemic excess mortality in the world.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12167635/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144302091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alcohol consumption and cancer risk in South Korea and the UK: prospective cohort studies.","authors":"Keum Ji Jung, Kyoungho Lee, Dae Sub Song, Ji Woo Baek, Sang Yop Shin, Sun Ha Jee, Sarah Lewington","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf108","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf108","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study aimed to compare cancer incidence rates between South Korea and the UK, and assess the associated cancer risks due to alcohol consumption.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were pooled from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II and the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study Biobank for South Korea, and from UK Biobank (UKB) for the UK, with follow-up until 2020. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by using the World Health Organization standard population. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer incidence were analysed in relation to alcohol consumption levels.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The overall cancer incidence rates were similar between South Korea and the UK. However, the incidence of liver, stomach, and thyroid cancers was more than five times higher in the Korean cohort. Compared with never drinkers, consuming ≥50 g of alcohol daily increased the overall cancer risk by 24% in the Korean data and by 11% in the UKB data. In Korea, heavy drinking (≥50 g/day) was associated with higher risks of esophageal cancer (HR = 12.59), liver cancer (HR = 1.65), head and neck cancer (HR = 2.06), alcohol-related cancers (HR = 1.60), and stomach cancer (HR = 1.43). In the UKB cohort, it was linked to increased risks of head and neck cancer (HR = 1.95), breast cancer (HR = 1.12), and alcohol-related cancers (HR = 1.18). Both cohorts showed a lower risk of thyroid cancer with increased alcohol consumption.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of alcohol-related cancers in both South Korean and UK populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12202743/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144505647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comments on measurement error and information bias in causal diagrams by Wardle et al.","authors":"Ying-Jie Zheng, Yi-Jie Li","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf096","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144484317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: Hodal and Lowairpoa Demographic Surveillance Systems.","authors":"Neeraj Sharma, Esther Thejo Rajitha P, Sunitha Varghese, Dhivya Kumari Krishnamoorthy, Arun Singh Jadaun, Roshine Mary Koshy, Pranay Vats, Rachel Belda Raj, Rajan Srinivasan, Venkata Raghava Mohan, Sarmila Mazumder","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf099","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf099","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12267134/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144649408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.","authors":"Andrea Brizzi, Joseph Kagaayi, Robert Ssekubugu, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Alexandra Blenkinsop, David Bonsall, Larry W Chang, Christophe Fraser, Ronald M Galiwango, Godfrey Kigozi, Imogen Kyle, Mélodie Monod, Gertrude Nakigozi, Fred Nalugoda, Joseph G Rosen, Oliver Laeyendecker, Thomas C Quinn, M Kate Grabowski, Steven J Reynolds, Oliver Ratmann","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf126","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf126","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viraemia is concentrating.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013 and 2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, 1-year age bands, and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population by using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia is concentrated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 years and men aged 30-34 years were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or having already achieved 95-95-95 targets.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12343087/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144835061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Profile: The New Zealand Best Start study (Kia Tīmata Pai).","authors":"Richie Poulton, Tugce Bakir-Demir, Hayley Guiney, Jesse Kokaua, Karen Salmon, Elizabeth Schaughency, Mele Taumoepeau, Amanda Clifford, Jimmy McLauchlan, Clair Edgeler, Natasha Maruariki, Stuart McNaughton, Peter Gluckman, Justin O'Sullivan, Ran Wei, Anita Trudgen, Elaine Reese","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf103","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf103","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12255882/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144617419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mammography screening and incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in Italy: an age-period-cohort analysis.","authors":"Lauro Bucchi, Silvia Mancini, Annibale Biggeri, Rosa Vattiato, Orietta Giuliani, Alessandra Ravaioli, Flavia Baldacchini, Federica Zamagni, Fabio Falcini","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf102","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ije/dyaf102","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The increasing incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is attributed to mammography screening, but the trend has so far been evaluated only descriptively.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We report an age-period-cohort modelling analysis of the incidence trend (1992-2017) observed among screening-aged women living in a region of northern Italy, where a mammography screening programme was implemented in 1996-98 (age 50-69 years) and 2010-14 (age 45-49 and 70-74 years).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of DCIS increased by an annual average of 9.1% (age 60-64 years) to 14.9% (age 70-74 years). The incidence peak followed a complex age-time pattern indicating an interaction between age and period, which suggested a cohort effect explained by the screening programme. In the age-period-cohort analysis, the birth cohort had a 2-fold effect. The nonlinear effect consisted of an increase in incidence for the generations of 1933-42 and 1943-52, targeted by screening since 1997, and of a second increase for the cohort of 1963-72, first invited in 2010. Taking into account the early excess incidence due to the introduction of the screening programme, the linear effect consisted of an annual 4.0% increase in the risk of DCIS for all successive birth cohorts or calendar periods, which was only partially attributable to the programme.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The increase in incidence rates resulted from an increased detection of DCIS through the screening programme and from an uptrend in the risk of diagnosis that can be attributed either to long-term changes in diagnostic scrutiny independent of the programme or to an increased exposure to risk factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12188216/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144484318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-term effect of temperature on cause-specific, sex-specific, and age-specific ambulance dispatches in Czechia: a nationwide time-series analysis","authors":"Tomáš Janoš, Joan Ballester, Raúl F Méndez-Turrubiates, Pavel Čupr, Hicham Achebak","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf051","url":null,"abstract":"Background Although several studies have investigated temperature-related mortality and morbidity, only a little is known about the short-term effects of temperature on ambulance dispatches. We aimed to conduct the first nationwide analysis of the association between temperatures and ambulance dispatches in Europe, including, for the first time, a detailed description of age-specific risks for 10-year age groups. Methods We collected daily data on ambulance dispatches and climate (i.e. temperature and relative humidity) for each district of Czechia (n = 77) during 2010–19. We estimated the relationship for each district by using a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models. We then applied a multilevel multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive regional and countrywide average associations and calculated the burden of ambulance dispatches that was attributable to non-optimum temperatures. Results The susceptibility to low (high) temperatures increased (decreased) with age, except for the youth (&amp;lt;20 years), for whom the risks for both heat and cold were the highest. High temperatures contributed slightly to the risk of ambulance dispatches due to respiratory and cardiovascular causes, while the contribution of low temperatures was substantial. The overall ambulance dispatches burden that was attributable to non-optimum temperatures (optimum temperature = 7.9°C) was 3.55% (95% eCI: 3.43 to 3.67), with a predominant contribution of heat [2.32% (95% eCI: 2.15 to 2.46)] compared with cold [1.23% (95% eCI: 1.16 to 1.30)]. Conclusion This data can be used as an early-warning indicator for temperature impacts, especially among vulnerable population subgroups, such as children, adolescents, and young adults. This evidence has important implications for healthcare system preparedness and management, and for the projections of climate change health impacts.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How COVID-19 affected academic publishing: a 3-year study of 17 million research papers","authors":"Matthew Whitaker, Sabrina Rodrigues, Graham Cooke, Bérangère Virlon, Christl A Donnelly, Helen Ward, Paul Elliott, Marc Chadeau-Hyam","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf058","url":null,"abstract":"Background The COVID-19 pandemic induced an unprecedented response from the scientific research community. Previous studies have described disruption of the norms of academic publishing during this time. This study uses an epidemiological statistical toolkit alongside machine-learning methods to investigate the functioning of the scientific information-generation and -consumption ecosystem throughout the pandemic. Methods A dataset of 17 million scientific research papers that were published between January 2019 and December 2022 was analysed. Data on citations and Altmetrics were harvested, and topic modelling was applied to abstracts. COVID-19-related articles were identified from title text. We investigated publication dynamics, correlations between citation metrics and Altmetrics, rates of publication in preprints, and temporal trends in topics, and compared these metrics in COVID-19 papers vs non-COVID-19 papers. Results Throughout 2020–2, 3.7% of English-language research output was on the topic of COVID-19. Journal articles on COVID-19 were published at a consistent rate during this period, while preprints peaked in early 2020 and decreased thereafter. COVID-19 preprints had lower publication rates in the peer-reviewed literature than other preprints, particularly those that were preprinted during early 2020. COVID-19 research received significantly more media and social media attention than non-COVID-19 research, and preprints received more attention, on average, than journal articles, with attention peaking during the initial wave and subsequent peaks corresponding to the emergence of novel variants. COVID-19 articles exhibited a higher correlation between Altmetrics and citation metrics compared with non-COVID-19 publications, suggesting a strong alignment between scientific and public attention. Conclusion This study provides a comprehensive description of the rapid expansion of COVID-19 research, revealing evolving research areas and waxing and waning public interest across different topics. Preprints played an important role in disseminating scientific findings, but the level of coverage of preprinted findings emphasizes the need for guidelines in handling preprint research in media, particularly during a pandemic.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144145892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Practical application of hybrid effectiveness–implementation studies for intervention research","authors":"Margaret A Handley, Leah D Murphy, Elizabeth B Sherwin, Starley B Shade","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyaf039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf039","url":null,"abstract":"Hybrid effectiveness–implementation studies have emerged to address design challenges that researchers face when assessing evidence-based intervention implementation in real-world settings. Hybrid studies maximize the usefulness of effectiveness studies by allowing both effectiveness and implementation research questions to be included in the same study, regardless of the research design (observational, individually randomized trials, cluster-randomized trials, preference designs, adaptive designs, etc). Hybrid studies utilize implementation science methods to facilitate integration of research findings into public health programming, health-care practice, and community and policy settings. In this article, we describe the three types of hybrid studies, which exist on a continuum depending on the emphasis placed on the effectiveness vs the implementation research questions. We discuss common implementation outcomes with examples of how the stage (or phase) of implementation can influence selection of implementation outcomes. We then summarize hybrid study examples from recent literature and present practical considerations when designing a hybrid study. Finally, we outline examples of implementation-focused research questions to consider asking by phase of implementation and discuss related sampling approaches.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143910200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}