International Journal of Infectious Diseases最新文献

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Tuberculosis and HIV coinfection: progress and challenges towards reducing incidence and mortality.
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107876
Bianca Sossen, Mmamapudi Kubjane, Graeme Meintjes
{"title":"Tuberculosis and HIV coinfection: progress and challenges towards reducing incidence and mortality.","authors":"Bianca Sossen, Mmamapudi Kubjane, Graeme Meintjes","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107876","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV-TB) is associated with disproportionate mortality: approximately 24% of the 660,000 individuals with TB and HIV died, compared to 11% in those without HIV dying from TB in 2023. HIV is a key driver of ongoing high TB incidence in many countries, particularly in the WHO Africa region, and TB is the leading cause of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PWH) globally. Significant developments have occurred recently with regards to prevention, screening, diagnosis and management of HIV-TB. Antiretroviral therapy and novel regimens for TB preventive therapy are now known to decrease TB incidence and improve survival. Use of Xpert Ultra (Cepheid, USA) and urine Determine<sup>TM</sup> TB LAM Antigen (Abbott, USA) as diagnostics are associated with improved survival for HIV-TB. However, there are ongoing gaps in our knowledge: regarding the natural history of TB disease in PWH; optimal approaches to diagnosis of TB and TB drug resistance including in non-sputum samples; and post-TB disease in PWH. We discuss recent progress, together with ongoing challenges - towards reducing incidence, morbidity and mortality. We highlight ongoing research that will advance our understanding and management of HIV-TB: including vaccine research, novel treatment strategies and expanded options for the diagnosis of TB and drug resistance in PWH.</p>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"107876"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143597024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Variability of antimicrobial susceptibility of commensal Neisseria species supports its use as a marker of excessive antimicrobial consumption - reflections from the results of a four-country study.
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107870
Izumo Kanesaka, Claudio Foschi, Antonella Marangoni, Paul C Adamson, Jeffrey Klausner, Huan Vinh Dong, Thibaut Vanbaelen, Irith De Baetselier, Tessa de Block, Sheeba Santhini Manoharan-Basil, Chris Kenyon
{"title":"Variability of antimicrobial susceptibility of commensal Neisseria species supports its use as a marker of excessive antimicrobial consumption - reflections from the results of a four-country study.","authors":"Izumo Kanesaka, Claudio Foschi, Antonella Marangoni, Paul C Adamson, Jeffrey Klausner, Huan Vinh Dong, Thibaut Vanbaelen, Irith De Baetselier, Tessa de Block, Sheeba Santhini Manoharan-Basil, Chris Kenyon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107870","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This perspective explores the utility of commensal Neisseria species as an early warning sign of excessive antimicrobial consumption. Little is known as to how the prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility of various commensal Neisseria species varies between populations around the world. We compared the prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibilities of oral commensal Neisseria species in the general population and cohorts of men who have sex with men (MSM) in four countries with available data - Belgium, Italy, Japan and Vietnam. In individuals where Neisseria spp. were detected, N. subflava was present in 70% to 100% of individuals in the different studies. The N. subflava azithromycin and ciprofloxacin minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were higher in the MSM than in the general population. The MICs of all Neisseria spp. were very similar in the general populations of Belgium and Italy. For all Neisseria spp., azithromycin and ceftriaxone MICs were higher, whereas ciprofloxacin MICs were lower in Belgium and Italy than in Japan. The higher azithromycin and ciprofloxacin MICs observed in the cohorts of MSM compared to the general population and the higher ciprofloxacin MICs in Japan compared to Belgium and Italy are commensurate with the most commonly antimicrobial prescribed in these populations. Our results support using commensal Neisseria species as an early warning system of excessive antimicrobial consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"107870"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143585727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global containment policy duration and long-term epidemic progression: a target trial emulation using COVID-19 data from 2020 to 2022.
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107871
Zhiyao Li, Zhen Wang, Xin Wang, Senke Chen, Wenxue Xiong, Chaonan Fan, Wenjuan Wang, Meng Zheng, Kunpeng Wu, Qun He, Wen Chen, Li Ling
{"title":"Global containment policy duration and long-term epidemic progression: a target trial emulation using COVID-19 data from 2020 to 2022.","authors":"Zhiyao Li, Zhen Wang, Xin Wang, Senke Chen, Wenxue Xiong, Chaonan Fan, Wenjuan Wang, Meng Zheng, Kunpeng Wu, Qun He, Wen Chen, Li Ling","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107871","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Global countries often apply containment policies (CPs) to combat infectious disease surges. Whether countries with longer cumulative duration of CPs are associated with slower long-term epidemic progression necessitates a thorough evaluation.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected CP and COVID-19 data of 185 territories during 2020-2022, with a total of 23 CPs. By using the target-trial-emulation and cloning-censoring-weighting approaches, we assessed the effectiveness of CPs with different cumulative durations in delaying countries from reaching the 1% and 10% cumulative infection incidence endpoints (i.e., 10,000 and 100,000 COVID-19 cases per million population respectively) over a three-year observation period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>For reaching the 1% cumulative infection incidence, recommending closing workplaces, and limiting gatherings to 10 people, each presented that longer cumulative duration of those CPs is associated with a lower proportion of countries achieving this endpoint throughout 2020-2022. For reaching the 10% cumulative infection incidence, mandatory bans on public events and domestic movements, closing public transports, screening and quarantining inbound tourists, each showed similar associations. Notably, long-lasting border bans upon high-risk regions are associated with a higher proportion of countries reaching the 10% cumulative infection incidence.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>From the long-term perspective, we highlight CPs that warrant extending the duration to achieve slower epidemic progression. By contrast, our findings demonstrate the limited effectiveness of ban on regions in slowing the long-term epidemic progression.</p>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"107871"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143585726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modulation of the Renin-Angiotensin System against COVID-19: A path forward?
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107867
Serge Camelo, Waly Dioh, J Pedro Teixeira, Laurence W Busse, Girish Nair, Gaëtan Plantefeve, Capucine Morelot-Panzini, Suzana Margareth Lobo, Wesley H Self, Sean P Collins, Rob Van Maanen, Stanislas Veillet
{"title":"Modulation of the Renin-Angiotensin System against COVID-19: A path forward?","authors":"Serge Camelo, Waly Dioh, J Pedro Teixeira, Laurence W Busse, Girish Nair, Gaëtan Plantefeve, Capucine Morelot-Panzini, Suzana Margareth Lobo, Wesley H Self, Sean P Collins, Rob Van Maanen, Stanislas Veillet","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107867","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Soon after the pandemic outbreak in 2020, it was proposed that binding of SARS-CoV-2 to the angiotensin converting enzyme-2 may explain most of COVID-19's manifestations. Therefore, manipulation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) by using well known and commercialized blockers of its classical arm or by repurposing new stimulators of the alternative RAS pathway in clinical development was seen as a potentially effective strategy for the treatment of COVID-19. Moreover, this therapeutic approach had previously shown significant promise in the treatment of other respiratory viral respiratory infections and forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Consequently, several randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were launched to test the efficacy of rebalancing the RAS to reduce the severity of COVID-19. While most of these trials produced neutral results, certain studies reached their primary endpoints. In the present collaborative review, sponsors and main investigators of some of these trials attempt to reach a consensus regarding their clinical significance and which factors influenced their differing outcomes. The knowledge gained through the careful analysis of these RCTs of RAS modulators in patients with severe COVID-19 may prove useful for other forms of acute lung injury.</p>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"107867"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143572975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to ‘Current microbiological testing approaches and documented infections at febrile neutropenia onset in patients with hematologic malignancies’ [Int J Infect Dis. 2024 Oct:147:107183]
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107848
Mariana Chumbita , Olivier Peyrony , Christian Teijón-Lumbreras , Patricia Monzo-Gallo , Tommaso Francesco Aiello , Antonio Gallardo-Pizarro , Emmanuelle Gras , Pedro Puerta-Alcalde , Mateu Espasa , Carmen Martínez , Andrea Rivero , Climent Casals-Pascual , Alex Soriano , Carolina Garcia-Vidal
{"title":"Corrigendum to ‘Current microbiological testing approaches and documented infections at febrile neutropenia onset in patients with hematologic malignancies’ [Int J Infect Dis. 2024 Oct:147:107183]","authors":"Mariana Chumbita ,&nbsp;Olivier Peyrony ,&nbsp;Christian Teijón-Lumbreras ,&nbsp;Patricia Monzo-Gallo ,&nbsp;Tommaso Francesco Aiello ,&nbsp;Antonio Gallardo-Pizarro ,&nbsp;Emmanuelle Gras ,&nbsp;Pedro Puerta-Alcalde ,&nbsp;Mateu Espasa ,&nbsp;Carmen Martínez ,&nbsp;Andrea Rivero ,&nbsp;Climent Casals-Pascual ,&nbsp;Alex Soriano ,&nbsp;Carolina Garcia-Vidal","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107848","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107848"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Emerging evidence to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in children and young people.
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107869
Julie Huynh, Yara-Natalie Abo, Rina Triasih, Varinder Singh, Gordon Pukai, Pauline Masta, Bazarragchaa Tsogt, Boi Khanh Luu, Felisia Felisia, Naomi Pank, Aung Aung, Alison Morton, Pete Azzopardi, Raspati C Koesoemadinata, Bachti Alisjahbana, Philip C Hill, Ben J Marais, Silvia S Chiang, Stephen M Graham
{"title":"Emerging evidence to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in children and young people.","authors":"Julie Huynh, Yara-Natalie Abo, Rina Triasih, Varinder Singh, Gordon Pukai, Pauline Masta, Bazarragchaa Tsogt, Boi Khanh Luu, Felisia Felisia, Naomi Pank, Aung Aung, Alison Morton, Pete Azzopardi, Raspati C Koesoemadinata, Bachti Alisjahbana, Philip C Hill, Ben J Marais, Silvia S Chiang, Stephen M Graham","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107869","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health challenge. Children, adolescents and young mothers are high-risk populations for TB with unique challenges and needs. Children are often misdiagnosed or diagnosed too late, resulting in long-term sequelae or mortality, whilst adolescents, despite having more recognisable adult-type TB and being an important source of community transmission, can be difficult to engage in care as they often fall between paediatric and adult models of care. TB during pregnancy poses significant risks to the mother-infant pair, yet antenatal screening to ensure timely treatment initiation is often inadequate. Recent research advancements to address these challenges include more accessible TB management aids, shorter effective drug regimens, child-friendly drug formulations, strategies for active case finding to expand treatment coverage including of asymptomatic disease and more options for preventive therapy. These advances have informed global policy and guidelines; however, major gaps in translation from policy to practice remain. This narrative review discusses the progress and identifies potential solutions with insights from the Asia-Pacific region to ongoing challenges in TB detection, treatment, and prevention in children and young people, with a view to TB elimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":" ","pages":"107869"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143572908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The pathway to Viral Hepatitis Elimination – Where are we in Africa? 消除病毒性肝炎之路--我们在非洲进展如何?
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107825
Wendy Spearman
{"title":"The pathway to Viral Hepatitis Elimination – Where are we in Africa?","authors":"Wendy Spearman","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2016, WHO set a goal to eliminate Hepatitis B and C by 2030, reducing the incidence by 90% and mortality by 65%. Yet in 2022, there was estimated 254 million people living with hepatitis B and 50 million living with hepatitis C; with 1.2 million new hepatitis B infections and nearly 1.0 million hepatitis C infections. However, only 13% of people living with chronic hepatitis B had been diagnosed and 2.6% received antiviral therapy. Only 36% of people living with hepatitis C had been diagnosed between 2015 and 2022, and 20% received curative treatment.</div><div>In the WHO Africa region, 64.7 M are estimated to be HBV-infected with 771 000 new infections but only 4.2% had been diagnosed and 0.2% had received treatment. The WHO Africa Region accounts for 66% of new hepatitis B infections, and yet only 18% of newborns receive the preventative hepatitis B birth-dose vaccination.</div><div>7.8 million people are estimated to be living with Hepatitis C in the WHO Africa region but only 13% have been diagnosed and 3% have received curative Direct acting antiviral therapy.</div><div>Achieving the WHO 2030 targets will globally save 2.85 million lives and avert 9.5 million new infections and 2.1 million cases of cancer. To address the burden of viral hepatitis in WHO Africa, we need to implement the Hepatitis B birth dose vaccine, decentralise management with affordable point-of-care diagnostics, simplified treatment algorithms with universal access to affordable antiviral therapies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107825"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
One Health intervention for elimination of animal to human disease transmission of Anthrax in an endemic district of Odisha: A baseline and endline study
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107424
Dr. Debaprasad Parai , Mr. Matrujyoti Pattnaik , Dr. Hari Ram Choudhary , Dr Arun Kumar Padhi , Dr. Niranjana Sahoo , Dr. Sanghamitra Pati , Dr Debdutta Bhattacharya
{"title":"One Health intervention for elimination of animal to human disease transmission of Anthrax in an endemic district of Odisha: A baseline and endline study","authors":"Dr. Debaprasad Parai ,&nbsp;Mr. Matrujyoti Pattnaik ,&nbsp;Dr. Hari Ram Choudhary ,&nbsp;Dr Arun Kumar Padhi ,&nbsp;Dr. Niranjana Sahoo ,&nbsp;Dr. Sanghamitra Pati ,&nbsp;Dr Debdutta Bhattacharya","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107424","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Introduction&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Anthrax is a rare but serious infectious disease of public health importance caused by the bacteria Bacillus anthracis. Anthrax cases have been documented in various states of India, including Odisha. In Odisha, Koraput district stands out with more than 300 reported human cases and over 10 confirmed deaths due to Anthrax infection in the past six years.The present study is a baseline and endline survey to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices with regards to the anthrax disease among the communities of indigenous population residing in the region pre and post of the tailored made One Health intervention for elimination of human Anthrax in this endemic district.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methodology&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This is a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted both as a baseline survey in mid of 2020 among 2670 respondents and again as endline survey during end of 2022 among 2511 respondents using a structured 85 item questionnaire by multi-stage sampling method. Descriptive statistics were reported and logistic regression was performed to estimate the relationship between the variables and knowledge of anthrax. One Health intervention package was developed with the help of various multistakeholders from the Koraput district which include establishing an active surveillance, developing a dedicated anthrax diagnostic facility in the state for the early diagnosis, sensitization and capacity-building training for all the stakeholders, behavioral Change Communication (BCC) and Information Education Communication (IEC) activities at the community and free livestock vaccination drive across the district with the help of district veterinary department and coordination or support from the other stakeholders for smooth execution of the vaccination drive.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Result&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Out of the total participants in the study, males were about (76.25% in baseline) and (72.08% in endline) and about half had no formal education in both the groups. Most of the respondents (54.19% in baseline) and (54.56% in endline) were involved in agriculture as an occupation. More than 50% of the respondents had livestock in their houses and farming was the main purpose for keeping the livestock in both the groups. Around 20.26% of respondents knew about anthrax during the baseline and after intervention 53.64% of the respondents had knowledge about it. Almost 21.29% of livestock owners had vaccinated their animals against anthrax disease which increased to 66.5% during the endline survey.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Discussion&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The results indicate a noteworthy enhancement in the knowledge, attitude and practices among the study population from the baseline to endline survey.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Conclusion&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study highlights a significant increase in both knowledge and practices related to anthrax within the community after One Health interventions. The findings can address various health challenges related to zoonotic dis","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107424"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating transmission heterogeneity and case ascertainment from variations in case counts in surveillance data
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107435
Dr Judith Bouman , Dr Jantien Backer , Dr Christian Althaus
{"title":"Estimating transmission heterogeneity and case ascertainment from variations in case counts in surveillance data","authors":"Dr Judith Bouman ,&nbsp;Dr Jantien Backer ,&nbsp;Dr Christian Althaus","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>The reported numbers of infectious disease case counts in surveillance data typically show considerable variation. This variation is a result of the process and observation noise. The process noise stems from the stochastic element of transmission at the individual level, i.e., the overdispersion of secondary cases. The observation noise results from variations in testing uptake and the sampling error. Our objective was to better understand how the process and observation noise shape the observed variation in infectious disease case counts in surveillance data.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We derived a mechanistic model of the data generating process of infectious disease case counts in surveillance data that incorporates a negative binomial offspring distribution for individual cases and the binomial sampling error from the observation process. We validated the model using data from stochastic simulations of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and case ascertainment. Finally, we applied the model to SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from Switzerland.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Assuming a constant observation probability, we showed that the daily numbers of reported cases in surveillance data are expected to follow a quasi Poisson distribution. The overdispersion in reported cases is a function of the expected number of cases, the effective reproduction number, the overdispersion in secondary cases k, and the observation probability. Using simulated data, we found that one can estimate the overdispersion in secondary cases when the observation probability is known, or vice versa. We illustrated this property with data from the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from 2020 to 2022. Using previous estimates for the overdispersion in secondary cases, we were able to estimate and track the upper bound of the observation probability of SARS-CoV-2 over time.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>We showed how the process noise at the individual level of transmission and the observation noise result in the observed variation in infectious disease case counts in surveillance data.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Our model has the potential to continuously monitor either the transmission heterogeneity or the case ascertainment for various infectious diseases from routine surveillance data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107435"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integral Scientific Advice for Outbreak Response: Lessons learned from an Avian Influenza Simulation in the Netherlands
IF 4.8 2区 医学
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107436
Dr Anja Schreijer, Dr. Femke Overbosch, Dr. Tomris Cesuroglu, Dr Charlotte Waltz, Drs. Bart Blokland, Drs Jeanette de Boer, Drs Tim Florschutz
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