Dr Anja Schreijer, Dr. Femke Overbosch, Dr. Tomris Cesuroglu, Dr Charlotte Waltz, Drs. Bart Blokland, Drs Jeanette de Boer, Drs Tim Florschutz
{"title":"Integral Scientific Advice for Outbreak Response: Lessons learned from an Avian Influenza Simulation in the Netherlands","authors":"Dr Anja Schreijer, Dr. Femke Overbosch, Dr. Tomris Cesuroglu, Dr Charlotte Waltz, Drs. Bart Blokland, Drs Jeanette de Boer, Drs Tim Florschutz","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The continuing avian influenza outbreaks in animals pose a public health threat worldwide. Concerns about the risk for humans are raising, now we see spread among different mammal species and animal to human transmission. The question raises how governments are best advised about this impending outbreak. One of the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic is that future pandemics demand swift and effective collaboration across disciplines to address diverse consequences and priorities. In many countries the governance framework for outbreaks requires different disciplines to provide advice separately to the government. We conducted an avian influenza outbreak simulation to explore development of integrated scientific advice in pandemics.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We organised two simulation events on 17 April and 24 May 2024. Prior to the simulation exercise, literature research and in-depth interviews were conducted with experts. During the simulations, the scenario dealt with different phases of the start of a pandemic situation due to a novel influenza virus from zoonotic origin. The scenario on 17 April depicted a variant of avian influenza spreading via pigs, including the first cases with human-to-human transmission, triggering significant health implications for humans and animals. In May the simulation continued with widespread human-to-human and cross-border transmission, hence the start of a new pandemic. A best- and worst-case scenario was illustrated from a biomedical and social-economic viewpoint. On both events, 20-23 Dutch experts from different disciplines initially crafted their recommendations independently. Three interdisciplinary groups then converged, utilizing an evidence-to-decision framework. Thematic analysis was conducted on notes of group and plenary discussions, and reflection and evaluation sessions.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The interdisciplinary discussions helped participants identify the blind spots within the disciplinary recommendations. A sense of urgency differed between sectors, leading to diverse point of focus within the expert teams. The biomedical team focussed on limiting the spread of the virus, while the the social-economic team focussed on mitigating the impact of the outbreak within society. Hence, the biomedical team advised measures like a local lockdown and active surveillance, where the social economic team preferred citizen consultations, exploration of economic and mental support and proper communication.</div><div>During integrative discussion, the various disciplines brought valuable insights from respective sectors, converging the different views towards a shared focus and creating mitigating advice.</div><div>For example, the integral advice provided various mitigating measures to interventions with a large social impact, e.g. setting up an auxiliary structure to quickly identify and support vulnerable groups and setting up tailored commu","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107436"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Prof Miguel Clavero , Dr Sergio Magallanes , Ms Pilar Aguilera-Sepulveda , Dr Maria Jose Ruiz-Lopez , Dr Josue Martinez-De la Puente , Dr Francisco Llorente , Dr Ana Vazquez , Dr Elisa Perez-Ramirez , Dr Martina Ferraguti , Dr Jovita Fernandez-Pinero , Prof Jordi Figuerola
{"title":"Climate change-driven vector-borne diseases spread to temperate climate territories: The frying pan theory.","authors":"Prof Miguel Clavero , Dr Sergio Magallanes , Ms Pilar Aguilera-Sepulveda , Dr Maria Jose Ruiz-Lopez , Dr Josue Martinez-De la Puente , Dr Francisco Llorente , Dr Ana Vazquez , Dr Elisa Perez-Ramirez , Dr Martina Ferraguti , Dr Jovita Fernandez-Pinero , Prof Jordi Figuerola","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Recently, as the effects of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) become evident, vector-borne diseases (VBD) are spreading and establishing in temperate regions of the world. We investigated whether these two phenomena are related. We hypothesized that ACC has turned many areas, previously considered “unsuitable” for sustaining VBD cycles, into “suitable” ones. The hypothesis assumes that VBD pathogens have historically been able to reach temperate areas, but only started to thrive there under the influence of ACC, hence their current spread. To support this hypothesis, which we tentatively named “The frying pan theory”, we have chosen the recent spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in Spain as a model of study.</div></div><div><h3>Methods & Materials</h3><div>The study area was Southern Spain, now endemic for WNV. We analyzed eighteen years (2003 to 2020) of data on WNV seroprevalence in common coots and horses and compared them statistically with annual series of climate variables (temperature, pluviometry, etc). We also performed phylogenetic analyses using WNV sequences from samples of mosquitoes, birds and horses, collected in the area up to 2022, and analyzed the pathogenicity of representative Spanish WNV isolates from this area and period in a mouse model.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Coots’ and horses’ seroprevalences exhibited a biphasic curve indicating at least two epizootic waves, one before and another after 2010. Seroprevalence in coots correlated with maximum winter temperature and average spring temperature. Horses’ seroprevalence correlated positively with average minimum annual temperature and the number of rain days per year and negatively with total annual precipitations. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least six independent introductions of WNV into Southern Spain during the study period. Some introductions succeeded in establishing in the area and spreading to neighboring regions, while others did not. No significant changes in the pathogenicity of the strains studied were observed.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>Long-term comparisons between annual variation of pathogen exposure and climate variables allow forecasting VBD trends. In this regard, higher minimum temperatures are among the ACC trends that may favor vector biology and hence VBD. Our data support that VBD pathogens like WNV can spread to new territories, but they will only establish their cycles successfully if they find suitable conditions. In Spain, competent WNV hosts (birds) and vectors (Culex mosquitoes), have always been present, and the virus has likely been introduced occasionally since long, e.g. by bird migrations. However, local WNV cycles would only be established if these necessary ingredients are “heated” by ACC much like well-cooked bacon and eggs may result only if heated in a frying pan.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The data obtained support our hypothesis, which may also apply to most o","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107418"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ms Sibonginkosi Maposa , Dr Mukhlid Yousif , Ms Chenoa Sankar , Mr Victor Vusi Mabasa , Ms Nosihle Msomi , Mr Emmanuel Phalane , Mr Sipho Gwala , Ms Mokgaetji Macheke , Ms Natasha Singh , Ms Kathleen Subramoney , Ms Phindile Ntuli , Mr Nkosenhle Ndlovu , Mr Thabo Mangena , Ms Mantshali Motloung , Mr Lethabo Monametsi , Ms Lebohang Rabotapi , Ms Fiona Els , Dr Said Rachida , Ms Sibonginkosi Maposa , Dr Kerrigan McCarthy
{"title":"Establishment of a wastewater-based surveillance network to support infectious disease surveillance in South Africa","authors":"Ms Sibonginkosi Maposa , Dr Mukhlid Yousif , Ms Chenoa Sankar , Mr Victor Vusi Mabasa , Ms Nosihle Msomi , Mr Emmanuel Phalane , Mr Sipho Gwala , Ms Mokgaetji Macheke , Ms Natasha Singh , Ms Kathleen Subramoney , Ms Phindile Ntuli , Mr Nkosenhle Ndlovu , Mr Thabo Mangena , Ms Mantshali Motloung , Mr Lethabo Monametsi , Ms Lebohang Rabotapi , Ms Fiona Els , Dr Said Rachida , Ms Sibonginkosi Maposa , Dr Kerrigan McCarthy","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Wastewater surveillance for infectious disease has demonstrated its potential to support clinical surveillance of infectious disease through the COVID-19 and Mpox pandemics and the polio environmental surveillance. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) provides disease surveillance, specialised diagnostics, outbreak response, public health research and capacity building for communicable diseases. Through grant funding, the NICD developed a national and district wastewater surveillance network to support infectious disease surveillance in South Africa. We describe lessons learned sample collection, laboratory processing and data analysis and reporting as the surveillance network has become established.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A surveillance network comprising 48 wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and district sampling sites, with a minimum of once weekly sampling, was set up across 9 provinces in South Africa. Samples are collected according to standard procedures, maintained at 40C and transported to the NICD laboratory, In the laboratory, samples undergo concentration, storage of residual concentrate, RNA extraction, PCR detection and quantification. Positive samples are sequenced. All data are recorded into RedCap. Processing data including turn-around-times, sequencing quality data and results are reported weekly. Clinical case data as (determined by case definitions from national notifiable medical conditions surveillance) from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) and NICD laboratory testing (measles and rubella) are downloaded weekly and epidemiological curves are generated.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>To date, 3350 samples have been collected from June 2020 until April 2024, with 25-58 samples processed weekly. Turn-around times for quantification and sequencing were 5-7 days, and 3-4 weeks. Challenges included delays in new site activation due to co-ordination across multiple layers of authority. Dedicated fridges were required in some sites to maintain sample integrity. Failure or delay in submitting samples occurred because of challenges with communication, co-ordination for the supply of sampling consumables to collection sites, and delays with processes for procurement of specialised courier services. In the laboratory, delays were experienced with shipment of filtration apparatus and PCR reagents. In addition, contamination in sequencing laboratories intermittently disrupted sequencing as deep cleaning was conducted. Analysis and reporting challenges were encountered in the introduction of RedCap data management system. The programme has also not been able to identify and attract senior bioinformatics staff.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>A stable network of sentinel sites with regular sampling, testing and reporting has been established. Challenges have provided learning and development opportunities. Research efforts are now focusing on exploring","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107381"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dr Hang Ding , Mrs Ashley Quigley , Professor Raina MacIntyre
{"title":"Analysing Open-source Images to Assess Face Mask Usage for Epidemiological Studies","authors":"Dr Hang Ding , Mrs Ashley Quigley , Professor Raina MacIntyre","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Face masks are an available intervention for respiratory emerging infectious diseases. Research during the COVID-19 pandemic has sought to manually quantify mask use in mass gatherings and public settings. Open-source images of mass gatherings or other large events on news and social media contain valuable information about face mask usage. This study aims to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence (AI) solution to automatically analyse open-source crowd photos for estimation of mask use.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Our AI solution includes four analysis stages: 1) detecting individual faces on a given image, 2) excluding unusable (blurry or occluded) face images, 3) classifying face images with or without a mask, and 4) identifying the indoor or outdoor environment. Multiple machine learning (ML) techniques were employed, such as a model named ResNet152-pretrained for the mask-related classifications at Stages 2 and 3 and Microsoft AI Computer Vision Service at Stage 4. To train the models, we collected open-source images using data-searching strategies similar to those developed for the AI-driven outbreak warning platform, EPIWATCH® (The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia)</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We finetuned those mask-related classification models using 25800 individual face images from 1871 open-source crowd images. We evaluated the face mask classification using images of mass gatherings. The face images were correctly classified for mask use in 88% of cases.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>We demonstrated the potential to classify open-source images to assess face mask use. Current results support our open-source analysis strategy with AI innovations for mask use estimation using open-source data. This is a novel epidemiological tool and further research is required to assess its validity in providing accurate assessments of mask wearing.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Analysing open-source images presents new opportunities to estimate mask use or other visual characteristics pertinent to public health and provide valuable insights into mandated mask-related health policies. AI-powered image analysis systems can help identify high-risk areas, track disease progression, and inform targeted interventions, ultimately contributing to more effective public health strategies and improved population health outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107407"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anthony Afum-adjei Awuah , Aboubacry Gaye , Antoine Nkuba-Ndaye , Anna Vicco , Moussa Dia , Oumar Ndiaye , Ndoumbe Ndiaye , Franck William Mendy , Mame Daba Thiam , Idrissa Dieng , Benoit Mputu-Ngoyi , Paul Tshiminyi Munkamba , Lionel Baketana-Kinzonzi , Elysé Matungulu-Biyala , Frida Nkawa , Evans Asamoah Adu , Eric Ebenezer Boham , Hakim Alani , Akua Pomaah Wiredu , Louis Adu-Amoah , Ilaria Dorigatti
{"title":"Seroprevalence of dengue in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana and Senegal: results of the SERODEN study","authors":"Anthony Afum-adjei Awuah , Aboubacry Gaye , Antoine Nkuba-Ndaye , Anna Vicco , Moussa Dia , Oumar Ndiaye , Ndoumbe Ndiaye , Franck William Mendy , Mame Daba Thiam , Idrissa Dieng , Benoit Mputu-Ngoyi , Paul Tshiminyi Munkamba , Lionel Baketana-Kinzonzi , Elysé Matungulu-Biyala , Frida Nkawa , Evans Asamoah Adu , Eric Ebenezer Boham , Hakim Alani , Akua Pomaah Wiredu , Louis Adu-Amoah , Ilaria Dorigatti","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107428","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107428","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>There are limited data on dengue transmission across most of African countries, including Senegal, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We aimed to assess the age-stratified dengue seroprevalence and estimate the force of infection (FOI, per-capita risk of dengue infection for a susceptible subject) in these countries.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We surveyed 14 regions in Senegal, 3 cities in Ghana, and 2 cities in DRC, leveraging blood samples collected from previous SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys of individuals aged 0 to 94 years. An Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) was used to measure IgG antibody levels against purified dengue particles (ELISA-1). A subset of samples was tested by ELISA for IgG against the recombinant nonstructural protein (NS1) of dengue (ELISA-2) and using a Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT) for all four dengue serotypes.</div><div>We used a Bayesian approach to reconstruct results obtained in the study and estimated the force of infection of dengue assuming a time-constant transmission.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In total, 8203 samples were tested by IgG ELISA-1: 1486 in Ghana, 3137 in Senegal and 3580 in DRC. Based on the IgG ELISA results, there was significant heterogeneity in the annual per capita risk of dengue infection across regions of Senegal, ranging from 0.2% (95% CrI: 0.1-0.3%) in Dakar to 2.6% (95% CrI: 1.9 -3.6%) in Fatick, corresponding to overall seroprevalence estimates of 5% (95% CrI: 3-8%) and 39% (95% CrI: 32-47%), respectively. In DRC, the average yearly FOI obtained from the IgG ELISA-1 results was 2.9% (95% CrI: 2.2-3.9%) in Kinshasa and 1.4% (95% CrI: 0.9-2.0%) in Matadi, with an overall population seroprevalence of 41% (95% CrI: 34-48%) in Kinshasa and 23% (95% CrI: 17, 32%) in Matadi. There were large heterogeneities in dengue transmission intensity across locations in Ghana, with a higher average yearly FOI in Tamale at 7.1% (95% CrI 5.6-9.6%)] compared to Accra at 2.6% (95% CrI 2.1-3.3%) and Kumasi at 0.5% (95% CrI 0.1-0.8%). Based on these results, we estimated that 43%, 11%, and 70% of the Accra, Kumasi, and Tamale populations, respectively, had been exposed to dengue virus. Notably, we found that the integration of the IgG ELISA-2 and PRNT test generated consistent estimates to those obtained with the IgG ELISA-1 test across locations.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>This three-country seroprevalence study provides evidence that dengue has been circulating at different levels across Ghana, DRC, and Senegal and highlights the large heterogeneity in population immunity and transmission across regions. Dengue surveillance needs to be strengthened in these countries and across Africa to monitor transmission and respond to future outbreaks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107428"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carol Karutu , Rashid Ansumana , Dziedzom K. de Souza , Sammy Njenga , Yaya Ibrahim Coulibaly , Shui Shan Lee , Moses J. Bockarie
{"title":"Towards elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases: Strengthening partnerships, fostering collaboration, and promoting country ownership","authors":"Carol Karutu , Rashid Ansumana , Dziedzom K. de Souza , Sammy Njenga , Yaya Ibrahim Coulibaly , Shui Shan Lee , Moses J. Bockarie","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107812","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107812"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143065348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spatial modelling of vector-borne diseases: Where? When? How many?","authors":"Mr Cedric Marsboom","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Avia-GIS R&D team has an extensive expertise in the spatial modeling of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) to address critical concerns regarding the epidemiology and control of VBDs. Our work focuses on dissecting the complex interactions between vectors, hosts, and the environmental conditions that facilitate disease transmission. Through the integration of machine learning techniques, our endeavors to predict not only the presence and activity of disease vectors but also the potential for disease outbreaks and their impact on populations in a one health context.</div><div>Central to our approach are three questions concerning the vector: (1) Where is the vector present? (2) When will the vector be active? and (3) How many vectors will be active at any given time? These inquiries are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of vector populations, which in turn influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Answering these questions, aids in identifying areas and times of high transmission risk, thereby enabling more effective vector control strategies and disease prevention measures.</div><div>Parallel to the vector-focused analysis, similar questions need to be answered from the disease perspective: (1) Where can the disease occur? (2) When will there be an outbreak? and (3) How much of he population will be affected? This aspect of our work is aimed at predicting the geographical spread and timing of disease outbreaks, as well as estimating the potential number of cases. Such predictions are vital for public health planning and response, as they help in allocating resources efficiently and implementing timely interventions to mitigate the impact of outbreaks.</div><div>The integration of insights from both the vector and disease aspects forms the foundation of an early warning system. Such a system combines data on vector presence and activity with information on environmental and climatic conditions, host population, and historical disease incidence to forecast where and when outbreaks are likely to occur, and how severe they may be. Machine learning techniques play a pivotal role in this process, enabling the analysis of large datasets and the identification of patterns that may not be apparent through traditional epidemiological methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107827"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Epidemics of Dengue and Reemergence of Chikungunya in Latin America","authors":"Prof A Rodríguez-Morales","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, Latin America has faced significant challenges due to the epidemics of dengue, the reemergence of chikungunya, and other arboviral diseases. Arboviruses pose a serious threat to public health and have far-reaching socio-economic impacts across the region. In dengue, Latin America experiences cyclical outbreaks of dengue, often exacerbated by factors such as urbanisation, population growth, inadequate sanitation, and climate change. However, in 2023-2024, the region is experiencing the worst and largest epidemics, with particular impact in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Colombia, among others. Concurrently, in the last few years, the re-emergence of the chikungunya virus in Latin America has added to the burden of mosquito-borne diseases. The first significant epidemic was during 2013-2015 in Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, and other countries. Now, different countries in the South Cone, such as Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay, also experience new outbreaks. Several factors have contributed to its resurgence including increased international travel and trade, allowing the virus to spread to new regions; urbanisation and inadequate sanitation, creating conducive environments for mosquito breeding; and climate change, which affects the distribution and behaviour of Aedes. Additionally, the lack of immunity in populations previously unexposed to the virus makes them vulnerable to outbreaks. The impact of such coepidemics extends beyond individual health to affect healthcare systems, economies, and social well-being. Healthcare resources are strained by the influx of patients seeking treatment for dengue and chikungunya-related complications and even chronic disease, leading to overcrowded hospitals and overwhelmed medical personnel. The economic burden is substantial, with costs associated with healthcare, vector control measures, and productivity losses due to illness and disability. Efforts to control and prevent dengue and chikungunya in Latin America require a multi-faceted approach that includes vector control, public health interventions, community engagement, and research into vaccines and treatments. Vector control strategies aim to reduce mosquito populations through measures such as insecticide spraying, larval source reduction, and community education on eliminating breeding sites. Public health initiatives focus on early detection, surveillance, and timely management of cases to prevent severe outcomes and minimise transmission. Community engagement plays a pivotal role in sustainable vector control efforts. It involves educating communities about the significance of personal protection measures, such as using insect repellents and wearing long sleeves and pants, and the importance of eliminating stagnant water sources where mosquitoes breed. Ongoing research into vaccines and treatments for these diseases shows promising developments, offering hope for future prevention and control efforts. In conclusio","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dr Joy Ebonwu , Ms Dativa Aliddeki , Dr Judith Kose Otieno , Dr Lul Pout Riek , Ms Kyeng Mercy
{"title":"Cholera case trends in Eastern Africa using surveillance data, 2007-2024","authors":"Dr Joy Ebonwu , Ms Dativa Aliddeki , Dr Judith Kose Otieno , Dr Lul Pout Riek , Ms Kyeng Mercy","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Cholera is a public health threat in Africa, with an estimated 68,480 cases and 895 deaths reported across seven of 14 Member States in the Eastern region in 2023. Within the region, cholera outbreak has been protracted in the horn of Africa, with countries responding to the outbreak amid prolonged harsh drought, floods and complex humanitarian emergencies. In recent months, an upsurge in cases and deaths has been observed in the region, with five countries reporting active outbreaks this year. We describe the trend of cholera cases in Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania for 2007-2024.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Descriptive trend analysis of cholera case data for Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania, from 2007-2024, was performed. Data were obtained from the Event Management System of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2023-2024) and the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) online resource for data (2007-2022). Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) data was sourced from WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Program for WASH. The term 'cholera case' includes both confirmed and suspected.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>From 2007 to 5 April 2024, a total of 578,449 cholera cases and 8,514 deaths [case fatality rate (CFR): 1.5%] were reported from Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania. Somalia accounted for 55.2% (315,972) of the cases and 54.6% (4,700) of the corresponding deaths. The average CFR per year was 1.4%, ranging from 0.3% in 2014 to 2.4% in 2016. During the review period, notable geographical patterns that were triggered by climate change were observed. Somalia experienced annual cholera outbreaks beginning November and December and receding in May, with largest occurrences in 2011 (77,636 cases) and 2017 (75,414 cases). Widespread outbreaks occurred in Ethiopia from 2007-2010, with a high peak in 2009 (31,509 cases) and recently in 2023 (29,869 cases). For this year, cases in Kenya appear to be on the decline while Tanzania shows an increasing pattern. Comoros reported its first cholera outbreak since 2007 in February 2024 through a cross-border event with Tanzania. Ethiopia is among countries in Africa with the largest population practicing open defecation in 2022.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>The trend analysis underscores the persistent nature of cholera outbreak in the Eastern region. Climate change impacts the dynamics of the outbreak by limiting access to safe water and sanitation, and triggering increased cross-border movements. The average CFR per year surpassed the recommended <1% threshold.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The cholera response requires a regional multi-sectoral and coordination mechanism approach, given the same protracted nature and cross-border transmissions. Significant resources are needed to implement long-term WASH strategies. With the predicted above-normal rainfall for the ho","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107432"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Innovative approach for the clinical development of a Chlamydia trachomatis vaccine through a human challenge model in women","authors":"Craig R. Cohen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Chlamydia trachomatis</em> remains the most common sexually transmitted bacterial infection worldwide. Recent phase I trials of the <em>C. trachomatis</em> vaccine candidate CTH522 in women and men have shown that the adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted formulations are safe and elicit systemic (immunoglobulin G) and mucosal (immunoglobulin A) antibodies, as well as vaccine-specific cell-mediated immunity. In advance of a standard phase II randomized controlled trial to determine the vaccine's efficacy, this perspective advocates for a carefully and ethically designed human challenge model as an innovative approach to assess a vaccine's ability to prevent infection and its impact on tubal immunopathogenesis in breakthrough infections. Such models could accelerate vaccine development by providing critical insights, making it essential for stakeholders to consider this approach and expedite the long-awaited chlamydia vaccine.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 107861"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143541984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}