Análisis Económico最新文献

{"title":"La integración financiera de la región del TLCAN: un análisis de los mercados monetarios,cambiarios y bursátiles","authors":"Antonio Ruiz-Porras, Javier Emmanuel Anguiano-Pita","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/ruiz","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/ruiz","url":null,"abstract":"Estudiamos la integracion de los mercados monetarios, cambiarios y bursatiles de la region del TLCAN. Se utilizan pruebas de raices unitarias y de cambio estructural endogeno y correlaciones dinamicas. Los resultados muestran que: 1) los procesos de integracion financiera han sido inestables en la region; 2) todos los mercados experimentaron cambios estructurales; 3) no necesariamente hay procesos hacia la integracion de los mercados; y, 4)los procesos de integracion financiera han sido heterogeneos en los mercados y en los ises. Se usan series representativas de los mercados financieros para el periodo de enero de 1995 a enero de 2019. Clasificacion JEL: F36; G15 Abstract We study the integration of the money, currency and stock markets of the NAFTA region. The study uses unit-root and endogenous structural change tests and dynamic correlations.The results show that: 1) The financial integration processes have been unstable in the region;2) all the markets experienced structural changes; 3) there are not necessarily processes toward the integration of the markets; and, 4) financial integration processes have been heterogeneous among the markets and the countries. We use monthly series representative of the financial markets for the period from January 1995 to January 2019. JEL Classification: F36; G15","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130502320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinantes del ingreso tributario en México","authors":"Antonio Maximino Carmona López","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/carmona","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/carmona","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"9 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114088556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soberanía Alimentaria de granos básicos en México: un enfoque de cointegración de Johansen a partir del TLCAN","authors":"Ramón Valencia Romero, Horacio Sánchez Bárcenas, D. Ortiz","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/valencia","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/valencia","url":null,"abstract":"Se presenta un analisis grafico y econometrico de la soberania alimentaria de granos basicos (arroz, frijol, maiz y trigo), medida a traves de sus importaciones, para el caso de Mexico a partir del TLCAN. El analisis grafico describe el comportamiento del area cosechada, la produccion, la importacion, asi como la oferta de cada cultivo. En cuanto al analisis econometrico, se emplea un enfoque de cointegracion de Johansen, con el cual se obtienen las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de importaciones de granos basicos. Se concluye que la soberania alimentaria se deterioro en el periodo 1994-2016; cada ano Mexico dependio mas de importaciones para satisfacer la demanda interna de granos basicos, creciendo esta ante aumentos de la actividad economica y del tipo de cambio real. Abstract This document presents a graphical and econometric analysis of food sovereignty of basic grains (rice, beans, corn and wheat), measured through their imports, for the case of Mexico since the establishment of NAFTA. The graphical analysis described the behavior of the harvested area, the production, the import, as well as the supply of each crop. Regarding the econometric analysis, a Johansen cointegration approach was used, with which the income and price elasticities of the demand for basic grain imports were gotten. It was concluded that food sovereignty deteriorated in the period 1994-2016; each year Mexico depended more on imports to satisfy domestic demand of basic grains, increasing this demand with raises in economic activity and the real exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"258 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132271196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk determination for manufacturing micro-companies in Mexico","authors":"Edgar Mauricio Flores Sánchez, Axel Rodríguez Batres, Javier Antonio Flores Delgado","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/flores","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/flores","url":null,"abstract":"Companies need financing sources that allow them to be competitive and fulfill their duty in the economy as generators and distributors of wealth. Specifically, the microenterprises dedicated to the manufacturing industry in Mexico constitute a sub-sector of great importance for this purpose due to variables such as personnel employed, distribution of remunerations and distribution of economic units by size. In order to support these organizations, the business valuation discipline offers several methods for improving business decision-making, specifically, the Capital Asset Valuation Model is a tool for measuring the financial risk of an asset or company with respect to the market in which it operates; however, in order to effectively apply it to micro-companies in Mexico, it has been proposed to contextualize the data and create an own index. The calculations made allowed the determination of eight beta risk coefficients for micro-companies from a selection of representative sub-sectors corresponding to the manufacturing industry in Mexico; which are considered representative and useful for making financial decisions of companies comparable to those used in the sample analyzed. Resumen Las empresas requieren de fuentes de financiamiento que les permitan ser competitivas y cumplir su labor en la economia como generadoras y distribuidoras de la riqueza. Especificamente, las microempresas dedicadas a la industria manufacturera en Mexico constituyen un subsector de gran importancia para dicho proposito debido a variables como personal ocupado, distribucion de las remuneraciones y distribucion de unidades economicas por tamano. Con el fin de apoyar a dichas organizaciones, la disciplina de la valuacion de empresas ofrece diversos metodos para la mejora en la toma de decisiones en los negocios; de manera concreta, el Modelo de Valuacion de Activos de Capital constituye una herramienta de medicion del riesgo financiero de un activo o empresa respecto del mercado en el que opera; sin embargo, para aplicarlo de manera efectiva a las microempresas en Mexico, se ha propuesto contextualizar los datos y crear un indice propio. Los calculos realizados permitieron determinar ocho coeficientes de riesgo beta para microempresas de una seleccion de subsectores representativos correspondientes a la industria manufacturera en Mexico; los cuales se consideran como representativos y utiles para la toma de decisiones financieras de empresas comparables a aquellas empleadas en la muestra analizada.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116507575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crédito, inversión y ganancias: un análisis empírico para la economía mexicana (2000-2014)","authors":"Noemí Levy Orlik, Jorge Bustamante Torres","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/levy","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/levy","url":null,"abstract":"Este trabajo discute las relaciones causales entre el credito, la inversion y las ganancias en el marco de la Teoria del Circuito Monetario a fin determinar las relaciones de causalidad entre dichas variables. El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar: ?que es lo que realmente financia el credito bancario?; y ?cual es el papel de las ganancias en el modelo flujo-reflujo de la Teoria del Circuito Monetario? Se busca mostrar que el credito bancario financia el capital circularte y que la inversion es financiada principalmente por las ganancias de periodos pasados. Ello se hace en el contexto de la economia mexicana durante el periodo, 2000-2014 Clasificacion JEL: E11, E44 Abstract This paper analyses the causal relations between credit, production, investment and profits, under the Monetary Circuit Theory in order to show causality and impact between these variables. The main issues of discussion that this paper addresses are (i) what really bank credit finances? And, (ii) what is the role of profits in the influx - reflux model of the monetary circuit? The argument of this paper are that bank credits finances working capital and profit finances investment. This analysis is made in the context of the Mexican economy in the financialization period, between 2000 and 2014. JEL Classification: E11, E44","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"53 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123347850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eficiencia de la innovación en América Latina. Una aproximación a través del Análisis Envolvente de Datos","authors":"Antonio Favila Tello","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/favila","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/favila","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this research is to measure the innovation efficiency of eleven Latin American countries with data for the year 2018, as well as to know which of the factors considered had a greater impact on the behavior of this phenomenon. It is hypothesized that the efficiency in the generation of patent applications by the selected countries is positively determined by their efficiency in seven inputs called Regulatory Environment, Basic Education, Post-Basic Education, Research and Development, General Infrastructure, Investment and Commerce and Competition. To corroborate the above, a measurement was carried out using a radial type Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), output oriented, with constant returns to scale. The results suggest that the highest efficiency was reached by Paraguay, Colombia, Brazil and Argentina; the countries evaluated as the least efficient were Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Ecuador and Uruguay.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128400274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El consumo en la economía financiarizada de Estados Unidos, 1970-2013","authors":"Enrique A. Silva Cruz","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/silva","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/silva","url":null,"abstract":"El presente estudio analiza los efectos del cambio en la forma de financiamiento del consumo de los hogares en los Estados Unidos en el periodo 1970- 2013. Se modela la relacion del financiamiento del consumo con la metodologia VAR cointegrado. Estimada la relacion, se utiliza la metodologia de ventana movible para determinar la evolucion de dicha relacion de forma dinamica. Los resultados muestran la importancia de los salarios como fuente de financiamiento, ademas de choques importantes en la recesion 2001 y 2008. La recomendacion de politica economica es la recuperacion de los salarios a fin de procurar la dinamica de acumulacion. La contribucion principal es la utilizacion de la metodologia de ventana movible para realizar un contraste dinamico. Clasificacion JEL: E12, E21, C32. Abstract The effect of the changed method of financing households’ consumption in the United States during the period 1970-2013 is dealt with. A cointegrated VAR and rolling window methodologies are used to both gauge such effect and determine the dynamic evolution of the said relationship. The results highlight the importance of wages at financing consumption as well as the existence of shocks upon the relationship, especially during the 2001 and 2008 recession periods. Hence the policy recommendation derived from the analysis that a sustainable capital accumulation requires increasing wage rates. The main contribution of the present paper is the application of the rolling window technique as a useful complement for a dynamic analytical contrast. JEL classification: E12, E21, C32.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122774381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Los cítricos en México: análisis de eficiencia técnica","authors":"K. Sandoval, Dánae Duana Ávila","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/valencias","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/valencias","url":null,"abstract":"Los mexicanos consumen habitualmente citricos como naranja, limon, mandarina y toronja, todos con propiedades nutritivas. La citricultura es fuente de ingresos de aproximadamente 67 000 familias. El objetivo del estudio fue analizar la eficiencia tecnica de los cuatro principales citricos cultivados en Mexico y como inciden sus caracteristicas funcionales en la demanda nacional e internacional; con la hipotesis de que son productos con variaciones minimas (menor que uno), teniendo la perspectiva que el consumidor los adquiere por los beneficios a su salud. El Analisis Envolvente de Datos (DEA) permitio medir la competitividad y la eficiencia. La mandarina y la toronja mostraron posibilidad de crecimiento por su eficiencia de 0.88 y 0.76, respecto a limon y naranja que muestran eficiencia nacional total (DEA=1). En los procesos productivos y de comercializacion de la mandarina y la toronja existen areas de oportunidad, ya que el mercado mundial importa en promedio 40% de estos citricos. En Mexico, el limon y la toronja cubren 100 % de la demanda nacional, por lo que podrian crearse estrategias para el mercado externo. Abstract Mexicans habitually consume citrus fruits such as orange, lemon, tangerine and grapefruit, all with nutritional properties. Citriculture is a source of income for approximately 67,000 families. The objective of the study was to analyze the technical efficiency of the four main citrus fruits grown in Mexico and how their functional characteristics affect the national and international demand; with the hypothesis that they are products with minimal variations (less than one), taking the perspective that the consumer acquires them for the benefits to their health. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) made it possible to measure competitiveness and efficiency. Tangerine and grapefruit showed the possibility of growth due to their efficiency of 0.88 and 0.76, with respect to lemon and orange, which show total national efficiency (DEA = 1). In the productive processes and commercialization of tangerine and grapefruit there are areas of opportunity, since the world market imports on average 40% of these citrus fruits. In Mexico, lemon and grapefruit cover 100% of the national demand, so strategies for the external market could be created.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124982293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crisis, explotación y salarios: análisis marxista del caso español","authors":"F. Arroyo","doi":"10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/murillo","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2019v34n87/murillo","url":null,"abstract":"El imp acto de la crisis sobre la economia espanola ha sido muy agudo. La fase de crecimiento previa quedo sustentada en el deterioro de las condiciones de empleo y en la implementacion de un ajuste salarial de caracter integral, sobre la base de un patron de acumulacion de bajo perfil tecnico. A partir del estallido de la crisis se ha profundizado en la misma estrategia, situando los niveles de desigualdad en cotas muy elevadas. El metodo de analisis marxista revela las tensiones que subyacen bajo esta dinamica. Desde esta perspectiva es posible comprender el significado de la beligerante reaccion emprendida por el capital, tendente a mejorar las condiciones de rentabilidad a costa de intensificar las condiciones de explotacion de los asalariados, lo que se ha materializado en una dinamica de profunda regresion salarial. Clasificacion JEL: B51, J30, F02 Abstract The impact of the crisis has been severe in the Spanish economy. The previous growth phase was based in the worsening of employment conditions and in the implementation of a wage adjustment, in an economy with a low technical profile. Since the outbreak of the crisis the pattern of accumulation has deepened in the same basis, reaching a very high level of inequality. The Marxist method reveals the causes that explain this dynamic. From this point of view it is possible to understand the meaning of the capital reaction, which aims the improvement of profitability through the increasing exploitation of the employees, which has materialized in a deeping wage regression. JEL Classification: B51, J30, F02","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125589470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efectos de la deuda pública subnacional en la inversión pública productiva en México","authors":"Mario Alberto García Meza","doi":"10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N87/GARCIA","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N87/GARCIA","url":null,"abstract":"Explorando los efectos de la deuda publica a nivel estatal, se encuentra que esta se suele dirigir a gasto corriente, a pesar de la obligacion legal que estas entidades tienen de dirigirla a inversion publica. Se realiza un analisis de datos en panel con efectos aleatorios donde se obtiene la estimacion del efecto de la deuda en la inversion publica, y de estas dos variables en el producto per capita en los estados de la republica. Se encuentra que existe un efecto pequeno pero significativo en el nivel de deuda con la inversion publica, asi como un efecto con las mismas caracteristicas entre la inversion publica y el producto per capita. Este efecto es consistente con la teoria de que un nivel muy alto de deuda publica ejerce presiones sobre el gasto que se reflejan en bajos niveles de inversion publica. Abstract Exploring the effects of state-level public debt, I find that it tends to be directed towards current expenditures, despite the entities’ legal obligation to direct it to public investment. A panel data analysis is carried out with random effects where the estimation of the effect of the debt on public investment is obtained and of these two variables in the per capita product in the states of the republic. It is found that there is a small but significant effect on the level of debt with public investment as well as an effect with the same characteristics between public investment and per capita output. This effect is consistent with the theory that a very high level of public debt exerts pressure on spending that is reflected in low levels of public investment.","PeriodicalId":127265,"journal":{"name":"Análisis Económico","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115301405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}