{"title":"Micromechanical Insights Into the Cyclic Behavior of Fault-Valve Systems","authors":"Oussama Larkem, Luc Scholtès, Fabrice Golfier","doi":"10.1029/2026GL124845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL124845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cyclic fluid pressurization can promote repeated fault reactivation and transient permeability changes, a behavior often discussed within the fault-valve concept in which faults alternate between acting as hydraulic barriers and conduits. To investigate the micromechanical processes involved during fluid induced reactivations, we simulate cyclic fluid injection into a pre-sheared granular gouge using a discrete element model. The simulations reproduce key behaviors observed in laboratory and in situ studies and reveal pronounced cycle-to-cycle variability in the onset of reactivation and slip magnitude. Some cycles generate large slip episodes, whereas others produce comparatively small slip under similar loading conditions. Micromechanical analysis of force-chain evolution reveals a strong inverse correlation between slip magnitude and the population of load-bearing chains, with sparser force-chain backbones generating larger slip events. Our results highlight the role of micromechanical processes in controlling macroscopic cyclic fault behavior, offering a physically grounded perspective on fault-valve behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL124845","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xi Wang, Wenjian Hua, Aiguo Dai, Lu Zhou, Minhua Qin, Haishan Chen
{"title":"Multidecadal Changes in Atmospheric Dryness Over East Asia Dominated by Internal Climate Variability","authors":"Xi Wang, Wenjian Hua, Aiguo Dai, Lu Zhou, Minhua Qin, Haishan Chen","doi":"10.1029/2026GL125508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125508","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer near-surface vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key measure of atmospheric dryness, has increased markedly across East Asia since 1980, yet the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability (IV) in its multidecadal changes remain unclear. Here we show that IV dominates East Asian VPD variability during 1901–2024, accounting for about 81% of the total variance and largely explaining the recent drying over northern China. We identify the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) as a key oceanic driver of this variability. A positive IOBM phase triggers a Pacific–Japan pattern-like teleconnection, enhances subsidence and warming over East Asia and suppresses moisture transport into northern China, thereby increasing VPD. Indian Ocean pacemaker experiments capture the main circulation and warming responses, supporting this mechanism. Together, these results provide robust evidence that tropical Indian Ocean–driven IV has played a decisive role in recent atmospheric drying over East Asia.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL125508","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Liying Qian, Chih-Ting Hsu, Wenbin Wang, Shun-Rong Zhang, Joseph McInerney
{"title":"Long-Term Increase in Equatorial Rayleigh-Taylor Instability: Synergistic Effects of Greenhouse Gas Cooling and Geomagnetic Field Secular Variation","authors":"Liying Qian, Chih-Ting Hsu, Wenbin Wang, Shun-Rong Zhang, Joseph McInerney","doi":"10.1029/2026GL124993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL124993","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are ionospheric irregularities generated by Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) that disrupt satellite communications. We quantify secular change of RTI growth rates and isolate underlying drivers using WACCM-X simulations. Results reveal a significant increase in RTI growth rates at plasma bubble initiation altitudes, with greenhouse gas cooling as the dominant driver and geomagnetic field secular variation modulating trends by longitude. We identify reduced recombination damping, often overlooked, as a major contributor. In the American/western sector, magnetic field secular variation produces localized decreases in RTI growth rates for magnetic field lines with apex altitudes of ∼250–320 km but predominantly enhances RTI growth rates for field lines with higher apex altitudes. Note that EPBs are initiated at the bottom F2 region, regardless of apex altitudes of field lines. Overall, the equatorial ionosphere is becoming more susceptible to RTI and plasma bubble development through stronger forcing and weaker damping.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL124993","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zachary McGraw, Benjamin O. Goldman, Lorenzo M. Polvani
{"title":"No Evidence for Strongly Enhanced Northern Hemisphere Cooling From Extratropical Versus Tropical Eruptions","authors":"Zachary McGraw, Benjamin O. Goldman, Lorenzo M. Polvani","doi":"10.1029/2026GL122071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122071","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics have been reported to produce several times greater cooling in that region than tropical eruptions of similar magnitude. Using a large ensemble of simulations spanning the eruption size range from 5 to 40 Tg of stratospheric sulfur, we find that the extratropical-to-tropical cooling ratio is consistently within a factor of two, indicating no enhancement beyond the effect of aerosols being confined to a single hemisphere. We further show that paleoclimate evidence suggests similarly unexceptional cooling, and also reconcile why earlier analyses yielded unreliable estimates. Moreover, owing to their rarity, we argue that extratropical eruptions exert a smaller overall influence on Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperatures than tropical eruptions. These findings question the notion that extratropical eruptions are of outsized importance for the climate of the Northern Hemisphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL122071","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Potential Benefits of Assimilating Phased Array Radar Data for Convective‐Scale Analysis and Prediction of Supercell Storms: A Proof‐of‐Concept OSSE Study","authors":"Jidong Gao,Derek R. Stratman","doi":"10.1029/2026gl125172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl125172","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the impact of phased array radar (PAR) scanning strategies on short‐term convective‐scale analyses and forecasts through an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework. The Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, is used to assimilate synthetic radar observations from PAR and WSR‐88D scanning strategies across three idealized supercell cases: slow‐moving, fast‐moving, and fast‐moving/fast‐growing storms. For the slow‐moving storm, PAR and WSR‐88D experiments produce comparable analyses and forecasts, with only marginal improvement from PAR. In contrast, for fast‐moving and fast‐growing storms, the 5‐min WSR‐88D scan introduces substantial temporal errors associated with storm advection and evolution, resulting in distorted storm structure. The rapid 1‐min update capability of PAR significantly reduces these errors, producing superior analyses and forecasts. These findings suggest that the implementation of a future US national PAR network would substantially enhance the accuracy of short‐term severe weather forecasts.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yukina Hara, Dai Yamazaki, Megumi Watanabe, Colin J. Gleason, Shinjiro Kanae
{"title":"Observation of Daily Flood Hazard During the SWOT Cal/Val Orbit","authors":"Yukina Hara, Dai Yamazaki, Megumi Watanabe, Colin J. Gleason, Shinjiro Kanae","doi":"10.1029/2026GL124074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL124074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood peaks can develop and recede within a day, making them difficult to capture with satellites with multi-day revisit intervals. Here, we exploit daily observations during the Calibration and Validation phase of the SWOT mission to examine a short-lived flood in May 2023 along the Du Gouffre River in Canada. Despite channel widths below 100 m, SWOT tracked day-to-day changes in water surface elevation, capturing a rapid rise of approximately 5 m consistent in timing and magnitude with in situ measurements. We derived flood extent based on classification and confidence information. The results show partial spatial overlap with an independent post-event flood hazard map, with differences primarily associated with reduced classification confidence in vegetated floodplains and narrow reaches. Some areas not identified as water may reflect erosion, sediment deposition, or post-peak conditions. These results highlight the value of high-frequency wide-swath radar altimetry for monitoring transient floods.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL124074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jian Yin,Xiefei Zhi,Danni Huang,Chunqing Shang,Hong Liang,Kezuan Wang
{"title":"Assimilation of 5G Base Station Networks as Ultra‐Dense Atmospheric Sensors for Advancing Heavy Rainfall Prediction","authors":"Jian Yin,Xiefei Zhi,Danni Huang,Chunqing Shang,Hong Liang,Kezuan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2026gl124477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124477","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The zenith total delay (ZTD) retrieved from 5G communication base stations represents a novel observation source for numerical weather prediction (NWP), leveraging the extensive global deployment of 5G infrastructure. In this study, the direct assimilation of 5G‐ZTD observations into a high‐resolution NWP system was accomplished for the first time. Two precipitation events were selected to evaluate the impact of 5G‐ZTD assimilation on short‐term precipitation forecasting. Assimilating 5G‐ZTD data corrected the dry bias in the initial water vapor field and improved precipitation forecasts in both cases, demonstrating its practical utility for short‐term heavy rainfall forecasts and operational potential given its low cost and extensive coverage.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Superpiles: The Impact of Mantle Temperature on Large Low Velocity Provinces","authors":"Heidi N. Krauss, Allen K. McNamara","doi":"10.1029/2026GL126324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL126324","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Among the most prevalent features in Earth's deep mantle are the Large Low Velocity Provinces (LLVPs), hypothesized to be hotter and compositionally distinct from the surrounding mantle. LLVPs have previously been viewed as either active superplumes rising through the mantle or passive piles shaped by large scale convection. Recent tomography models suggest LLVPs may exhibit a plume-shaped morphology. Geodynamic experiments offer insights into the formation, characteristics, and evolution of mantle structures. This study shows LLVPs can form passive piles with a plume-shaped morphology when the initial condition has a hot isothermal profile and small intrinsic density differences. The background mantle temperature, in addition to the intrinsic density, plays a critical role in determining LLVP morphology. These findings suggest the observed plume-like shapes of LLVPs in recent tomography models can be explained by either superplumes or passive piles with plume-shaped morphologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL126324","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149176976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhenhua Jia, Pan Zhao, Yifei Hou, Yue Liu, Siyuan Li, Jiahui Ma, Chenglong Deng
{"title":"Position of the Lhasa Terrane and Two-Stage Crustal Shortening During the India–Asia Collision","authors":"Zhenhua Jia, Pan Zhao, Yifei Hou, Yue Liu, Siyuan Li, Jiahui Ma, Chenglong Deng","doi":"10.1029/2026GL124529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL124529","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paleolatitudinal change of the Lhasa Terrane is critical for estimating the timing of the India–Asia collision and associated syn-to post-collisional crustal shortening, but its paleoposition is highly debated. Here we present integrated geochronologic and paleomagnetic results from the Lower Eocene Nianbo Formation in the Linzhou Basin. Two SIMS U−Pb zircon ages of 54.59 ± 0.68 Ma and 53.97 ± 0.43 Ma were obtained from the strata. The magnetostratigraphy spans chrons C24r–C23r, estimating deposition from ∼55.37 to ∼52.54 Ma. Paleomagnetic data yield a paleopole of 74.1°N, 270.1°E (<i>A</i><sub>95</sub> = 2.2°) for the Lhasa Terrane, corresponding to a paleolatitude of 14.1 ± 2.2°N. Synthesis of published paleomagnetic data reveals that the Lhasa Terrane migrated from ∼10°N (Late Cretaceous) to ∼14°N (Early Eocene), and reached ∼20°N at ∼50 Ma. This two-stage latitudinal shift implies two-stage crustal shortening, which might relate to the Tethyan Himalaya–Lhasa collision and the India–Asia collision, respectively.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL124529","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149176982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Convective Amplification of Ionospheric Feedback by a Finite‐Duration Inertial Alfvén‐Wave Source","authors":"R. Rankin,W. Wang,Q.‐G. Zong","doi":"10.1029/2026gl124490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl124490","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate the ionospheric feedback instability (IFI) driven by a finite‐duration localized source of inertial Alfvén waves. Wave‐excited conductance perturbations undergo Pedersen mobility drift in the convection and wave electric fields and are amplified. A causal Green's‐function formulation is derived for a height‐integrated ionospheric sheet coupled to an inertial Alfvén cavity with upper‐boundary reflection. For a finite‐width source, temporal growth becomes convective amplification. The relative phase slip between the returning wave and conductance perturbation provides an a posteriori coherence timescale for evaluating the finite‐source gain. The gain is controlled by time‐integrated feedback drive minus upper‐boundary leakage and ionospheric relaxation. The complex root of the closed dispersion relation determines the wave frequency, growth rate, and packet speed. In one example, the peak field‐aligned current is several times the forced‐only value. Observability depends on phase coherence, losses, transverse escape, and instrumental sampling.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}