Yao Fu, M. Susan Lozier, Amy Bower, Kristin Burmeister, Tiago Carrilho Biló, Frédéric Cyr, Stuart A. Cunningham, Brad deYoung, Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod, M. Femke de Jong, Nora Fried, N. Penny Holliday, Neil J. Fraser, William E. Johns, Feili Li, Johannes Karstensen, Robert S. Pickart, Fiammetta Straneo, Igor Yashayaev
{"title":"Characterizing the Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Subpolar Overturning","authors":"Yao Fu, M. Susan Lozier, Amy Bower, Kristin Burmeister, Tiago Carrilho Biló, Frédéric Cyr, Stuart A. Cunningham, Brad deYoung, Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod, M. Femke de Jong, Nora Fried, N. Penny Holliday, Neil J. Fraser, William E. Johns, Feili Li, Johannes Karstensen, Robert S. Pickart, Fiammetta Straneo, Igor Yashayaev","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114672","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has drawn extensive attention due to its impact on the global redistribution of heat and freshwater. Here we present the latest time series (2014–2022) of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program and characterize MOC interannual variability. We find that any single boundary current captures ∼30% of subpolar MOC interannual variability. However, to fully resolve MOC variability, a wide swath across the eastern subpolar basin is needed; in the Labrador Sea both boundaries are needed. Through a volume budget analysis for the subpolar basins' lower limbs, we estimate the magnitude of unresolved processes (e.g., diapycnal mixing) required to close the mean budget (∼2 Sv). We find that in the eastern subpolar basin surface-forced transformation variability is linked to lower limb volume variability, which translates to MOC changes within the same year. In contrast, this linkage is weak in the Labrador Sea.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114672","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adrien Wehrlé, Hugo Rousseau, Martin P. Lüthi, Ana Nap, Andrea Kneib-Walter, Janneke van Ginkel, Guillaume Jouvet, Fabian Walter
{"title":"Immediate Ice Stream and Shear Margin Response to Calving at Sermeq Kujalleq in Kangia, Greenland","authors":"Adrien Wehrlé, Hugo Rousseau, Martin P. Lüthi, Ana Nap, Andrea Kneib-Walter, Janneke van Ginkel, Guillaume Jouvet, Fabian Walter","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115829","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115829","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sensitivity of Greenland outlet glaciers to short-term flow disturbances lacks observations to be well constrained in numerical models. Specifically, sudden gigaton-scale calving events regularly occurring at major Greenland outlet glaciers like Sermeq Kujalleq in Kangia (SKK; also known as Jakobshavn Isbræ) are known to perturb background ice flow in complex ways. Here, we present high-rate terrestrial radar observations and show an immediate step-wise acceleration of SKK ice stream up to 11 km from its terminus, one of the longest immediate calving responses so far reported in Greenland. Focusing on SKK's shear margins, we detected large instantaneous increases in deformation rates in its most crevassed section, which, together with the along-flow response, provide evidence for strong lateral and longitudinal coupling of the ice stream. Using a simplified theoretical framework, we show that the loss of lateral drag due to calving is a key component of such a widespread calving response.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115829","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145140691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluation of a Width-Based Satellite Discharge Algorithm for Detecting Longitudinal Flow Changes in a Human-Regulated Continental River Basin","authors":"Y. Ishikawa, D. Yamazaki, Y. Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigated the capabilities and limitations of estimating spatially continuous river discharge using satellite-observed river width and the AMHG-based algorithm (BAM). We applied this method to 668 reaches along the Yellow River mainstem, examining whether width-derived discharge estimates can capture both natural and anthropogenic streamflow variations. Results show that discharge increases at tributary confluences and decreases in irrigated sections were successfully reproduced, indicating the potential to represent realistic spatial patterns from satellite observations. We further evaluated the impact of prior discharge, which serves as an initial guess in BAM; incorporating irrigation-corrected priors improved estimation accuracy, particularly in downstream reaches affected by human activities. However, large errors remained in levee-confined reaches, where poor co-variability between width and discharge limited performance. Our findings highlight that satellite-based width measurements, when supported by appropriate priors, offer a promising means to monitor discharge in ungauged basins, while also revealing key challenges in regulated rivers.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Scale-Aware Evaluation of Complex Mountain Boundary Layer Flow From Observations and Simulations","authors":"Karl Lapo, Anurag Dipankar, Brigitta Goger","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116441","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116441","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Boundary layers over complex, mountainous terrain are characterized by multi-scale, complex flow structures, where the characterization of individual flow modes poses a fundamental challenge. We apply the novel multi-resolution coherent spatio-temporal scale separation (mrCOSTS) method to LIDAR observations and numerical data of the velocity components of complex mountain boundary-layer flow. Using three distinct time scales (turbulent scales, mountain boundary layer, and diurnal scales) the underlying physical processes are explored. Furthermore, we identified the dominant flow patterns for each time scale, for example, down- and up-valley flows, cross-valley vortices, small-scale turbulence, and large evening transition eddies. Applying mrCOSTS to simulated velocity components enables us to identify how coherent structures and the flow patterns are represented at various mesh sizes in the model. Using mrCOSTS we trivially retrieved complex dynamics that were previously difficult to resolve, enabling a direct, scale-aware evaluation between the LIDAR observations and model results.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145140689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Thurnherr, R. Cui, P. Velasquez, H. Wernli, C. Schär
{"title":"The Effect of 3\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 °\u0000 \u0000 ${}^{circ}$\u0000 C Global Warming on Hail Over Europe","authors":"I. Thurnherr, R. Cui, P. Velasquez, H. Wernli, C. Schär","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114811","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL114811","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hail severely impacts humans, crops, and infrastructure. Quantifying future hail trends is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes behind severe convective storms. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency in Europe imposed by a <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>3</mn>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $3{}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>C global warming level. Results show increases in summer hail frequency in northeastern Europe and decreases to the southwest for intense and severe hail days, related to changes in low-tropospheric water vapor content, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. Small hail days generally decline across continental Europe, due to increased melting of hailstones with higher melting level height. The physical-based simulation approach captures convection and hail processes consistently, providing a solid basis for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114811","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145140690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}