Geophysical Research Letters最新文献_第6页

Lightning-Fast Convective Outlooks: Predicting Severe Convective Environments With Global AI-Based Weather Models 闪电-快速对流展望：利用基于人工智能的全球天气模型预测严重对流环境

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110960

Monika Feldmann, Tom Beucler, Milton Gomez, Olivia Martius

{"title":"Lightning-Fast Convective Outlooks: Predicting Severe Convective Environments With Global AI-Based Weather Models","authors":"Monika Feldmann, Tom Beucler, Milton Gomez, Olivia Martius","doi":"10.1029/2024GL110960","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL110960","url":null,"abstract":"Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill similar to state-of-the-art operational forecasts for variables on single levels. However, predicting severe thunderstorm environments requires accurate combinations of dynamic and thermodynamic variables and the vertical structure of the atmosphere. Advancing the assessment of AI-models toward process-based evaluations lays the foundation for hazard-driven applications. We assess the forecast skill of the top-performing AI-models GraphCast, Pangu-Weather and FourCastNet for convective parameters at lead-times up to 10 days against reanalysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction model IFS. In a case study and seasonal analyses, we see the best performance by GraphCast and Pangu-Weather: these models match or even exceed the performance of IFS for instability and shear. This opens opportunities for fast and inexpensive predictions of severe weather environments.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL110960","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142678651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5) 三种区域气候模式在强烈变暖情景（SSP5-8.5）下对 21 世纪格陵兰冰盖地表质量平衡的预测相差 2 倍

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111902

Q. Glaude, B. Noel, M. Olesen, M. Van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, R. Mottram, N. Hansen, A. Delhasse, C. Amory, C. Kittel, H. Goelzer, X. Fettweis

{"title":"A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)","authors":"Q. Glaude, B. Noel, M. Olesen, M. Van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, R. Mottram, N. Hansen, A. Delhasse, C. Amory, C. Kittel, H. Goelzer, X. Fettweis","doi":"10.1029/2024GL111902","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL111902","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL111902","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Coastal Supra-Permafrost Aquifers of the Arctic and Their Significant Groundwater, Carbon, and Nitrogen Fluxes 北极沿海超冻土含水层及其重要的地下水、碳和氮通量

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109142

Cansu Demir, James W. McClelland, Emily Bristol, Matthew A. Charette, M. Bayani Cardenas

引用次数: 0

Soil Moisture-Cloud-Precipitation Feedback in the Lower Atmosphere From Functional Decomposition of Satellite Observations 从卫星观测的功能分解看低层大气的土壤水分-云-降水反馈作用

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110347

Yifu Gao, Clément Guilloteau, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Chonggang Xu, Xiaoming Sun, Jasper A. Vrugt

{"title":"Soil Moisture-Cloud-Precipitation Feedback in the Lower Atmosphere From Functional Decomposition of Satellite Observations","authors":"Yifu Gao, Clément Guilloteau, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Chonggang Xu, Xiaoming Sun, Jasper A. Vrugt","doi":"10.1029/2024GL110347","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL110347","url":null,"abstract":"The feedback of topsoil moisture (SM) content on convective clouds and precipitation is not well understood and represented in the current generation of weather and climate models. Here, we use functional decomposition of satellite-derived SM and cloud vertical profiles (CVP) to quantify the relationship between SM and the vertical distribution of cloud water in the central US. High-dimensional model representation is used to disentangle the contributions of SM and other land-surface and atmospheric variables to the CVP. Results show that the sign and strength of the SM-cloud-precipitation feedback varies with cloud height and time lag and displays a large spatial variability. Positive anomalies in antecedent 7-hr SM and land-surface temperature enhance cloud reflectivity up to 4 dBZ in the lower atmosphere about 1–3 km above the surface. Our approach presents new insights into the SM-cloud-precipitation feedback and aids in the diagnosis of land-atmosphere interactions simulated by weather and climate models.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL110347","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142684752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dominating Remote Source and Its Potential Contribution of Airborne Dust Over the Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原上空气载尘埃的主要遥源及其潜在贡献

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111178

Jingyi Tang, Tianhe Wang, Ying Han, Xinyi Zhang, Ruiqi Tan, Yuanzhu Dong, Shanjuan He, Sabur F. Abdullaev, Mansur O. Amonov

{"title":"Dominating Remote Source and Its Potential Contribution of Airborne Dust Over the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Jingyi Tang, Tianhe Wang, Ying Han, Xinyi Zhang, Ruiqi Tan, Yuanzhu Dong, Shanjuan He, Sabur F. Abdullaev, Mansur O. Amonov","doi":"10.1029/2024GL111178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111178","url":null,"abstract":"Dust particles, transported over long-distances and driven by westerly winds, dominate high-altitude (>4 km) snow darkening and melting over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A systematic assessment of their remote sources and potential contributions remains limited. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for source-tracing of airborne dust designed to tackle the aforementioned challenges. The algorithm effectively constrains dust activity and guarantees precise tracking through using satellite and reanalysis-based estimates. The high-altitude airborne dust over the TP shows considerable spatial variation and primarily comes from the desert clusters in Central Asia, West Asia, and South Asia. The Karakum, Taklimakan, and Thar deserts are significant sources of high-altitude airborne dust in the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of TP, with average mass loadings (mg m−2) contributing rates of 42.2% (32.9), 49.6% (48.3), and 16.4% (32.1), respectively. The results demonstrate significant differences in how adjacent deserts affect high-altitude snowmelt in the TP.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL111178","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142692046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enablement or Suppression of Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection by the Background Plasma Beta and Guide Field 背景等离子体β和导磁场对无碰撞磁性再连接的促进或抑制作用

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112126

Young Dae Yoon, Thomas Earle Moore, Deirdre E. Wendel, Modhuchandra Laishram, Gunsu S. Yun

{"title":"Enablement or Suppression of Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection by the Background Plasma Beta and Guide Field","authors":"Young Dae Yoon, Thomas Earle Moore, Deirdre E. Wendel, Modhuchandra Laishram, Gunsu S. Yun","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112126","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL112126","url":null,"abstract":"How magnetic reconnection is triggered or suppressed is an important outstanding problem. By considering pinching of a current sheet that has formed at non-equilibrium, we show that the background plasma beta is a major controlling factor in the onset and nature of magnetic reconnection. A high plasma beta inhibits a current sheet from pinching down to kinetic scales required for collisionless reconnection, while a low beta facilitates it. A simple adiabatic model provides a good prediction for the reconnection-enabled regions in thickness versus peak plasma beta space, which are confirmed by a series of particle-in-cell simulations with varying initial parameters. A strong dependency of the peak reconnection rate on the plasma beta is clearly predicted with reconnection being favored in low beta conditions. A finite guide field is an additional source of reconnection suppression, consistent with previous observations that reconnection requires a large enough magnetic shear angle for high-beta situations.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characterizing the Impacts of 2024 Total Solar Eclipse Using New York State Mesonet Data 利用纽约州中间网数据确定 2024 年日全食的影响特征

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112684

Junhong Wang, Aiguo Dai, Chau-Lam Yu, Bhupal Shrestha, D. J. McGuinnes, Nathan Bain

引用次数: 0

Modulation in Teleconnections of the El Nino Southern Oscillation by Atlantic Multidecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability 大西洋多年代海面温度变异对厄尔尼诺南方涛动远距离联系的调节作用

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107404

D. Wreford, S. McGregor, R. Naha

引用次数: 0

Air-Sea Heat and Moisture Flux Gradients 空气-海洋热量和水分流量梯度

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110728

Rhys Parfitt

引用次数: 0

A New Method for Reconstruction of Regional Three-Dimensional Electron Density Distributions Using AI-Based Data Assimilation Method and Incoherent Scatter Radar Measurements 利用基于人工智能的数据同化方法和非相干散射雷达测量重建区域三维电子密度分布的新方法

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112352

Chenghao Li, Hanxian Fang, Xiaoqun Cao, Die Duan, Chao Xiao, Hongtao Huang, Ganming Ren, Yang Lin, Yihui Cai

{"title":"A New Method for Reconstruction of Regional Three-Dimensional Electron Density Distributions Using AI-Based Data Assimilation Method and Incoherent Scatter Radar Measurements","authors":"Chenghao Li, Hanxian Fang, Xiaoqun Cao, Die Duan, Chao Xiao, Hongtao Huang, Ganming Ren, Yang Lin, Yihui Cai","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112352","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL112352","url":null,"abstract":"The ionosphere's dynamic structure affects electromagnetic radiation by altering radio wave propagation, impacting daily communications. The characteristics of the ionosphere are primarily characterized by electron density parameters. This paper proposes a method to construct Three-Dimensional (3-D) electron density distributions with arbitrary spatiotemporal resolution in ISR observational regions. The method, termed Artificial Intelligence-based data assimilation (AI-Assim), integrates data assimilation directly into a neural network. It assimilates electron density from the IRI-2020 model to fill ISR observation gaps. Experiments conducted using the Sanya Incoherent Scatter Radar (SYISR) in Hainan, China, successfully constructed a 3-D electron density structure over the region, with a 0.2° latitude/longitude resolution and 1 km height resolution. The method's effectiveness was validated by calculating the mean square error and comparing the results with digisonde measurements.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"51 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112352","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0