Yangjing Nie, Zhaofei Wu, Shouzhi Chen, Yue Xu, Yufeng Gong, Hongzhou Wang, Yi Xiao, Zunchi Liu, Yongshuo H. Fu
{"title":"Divergent Impacts of Precipitation Regimes on Autumn Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐ to High‐Latitudes","authors":"Yangjing Nie, Zhaofei Wu, Shouzhi Chen, Yue Xu, Yufeng Gong, Hongzhou Wang, Yi Xiao, Zunchi Liu, Yongshuo H. Fu","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117589","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has altered precipitation regimes and shifted the end of the vegetation growing season (end of the season [EOS]), with consequences for terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, the impacts of precipitation regimes, that is, total precipitation (<jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>total</jats:sub>) and precipitation frequency (<jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>freq</jats:sub>), on EOS remain unclear. Using satellite‐derived phenology data from 1982 to 2020, we examined the effects of precipitation regimes on EOS across the mid‐ to high‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. We found that both increased <jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>total</jats:sub> and decreased <jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>freq</jats:sub> delayed EOS, with the effect of reduced <jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>freq</jats:sub> likely mediated through increased maximum temperature and elevated soil moisture resulting from higher precipitation intensity. We further developed a process‐based autumn phenology model that incorporated the effect of <jats:italic>P</jats:italic><jats:sub>freq</jats:sub>, which significantly improved model performance. These findings underscore the influence of precipitation regimes on EOS and highlight the need to account for both precipitation frequency and intensity when projecting vegetation carbon uptake under future climate scenarios.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145195085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Averages of the Geomagnetic Dipole","authors":"Bruce Buffett, Margaret Avery","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118741","url":null,"abstract":"Time averages of the geomagnetic field provide insights into the state of the geodynamo, but uncertainties in these averages can compromise the interpretation. An important source of uncertainty is due to a restricted averaging duration. Short averages do not sample the full range of variability, leading to errors in the resulting estimates. Here we assess the uncertainty of finite‐time averages by assuming that stochastic models give a reasonable description of fluctuations in the axial dipole. We derive an expression for the variance of the time average as a function of the averaging duration. Averages longer than 1 Myr are required to lower the standard deviation of the average to 10% of the natural variability. We apply our theory to known differences in the axial dipole between the Brunhes and Matuyama chrons. These differences are too large to attribute to natural variability, indicating a need for refinements in the Myr‐scale models.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145195089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inconsistencies in GRACE‐Based Groundwater Storage Estimation—A Call for a Proper Use of Land Surface Models","authors":"Augusto Getirana, Sujay Kumar, Matthew Rodell","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119197","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies by subtracting model‐derived components from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies is a common practice in hydrology. Typically, land surface model (LSM) simulated soil moisture (SM), snow water equivalent, and canopy water content are removed from GRACE‐derived TWS, and the residual is interpreted as GWS. However, this method implicitly assumes that LSMs account for all non‐groundwater storages within distinct, physically meaningful compartments. In this comment, we examine the assumptions, semantic and structural challenges embedded in this approach, suggesting that users consider the consequences of model simplifications and conventions on the results. We encourage careful interpretation and advocate for more sophisticated methods, including making use of data assimilation and models that represent physical hydrological processes more completely.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145183165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rapid Increase in Extreme Hourly Precipitation in Recent Two Decades in the Tibetan Plateau and Its Large‐Scale Drivers","authors":"Rouyi Jiang, Xingwen Jiang, Lun Li, Ping Lu","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117722","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117722","url":null,"abstract":"Although extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has received growing attention, its spatiotemporal variability and the underlying mechanisms governing regional responses remain unclear. This study explores the spatiotemporal characteristics of EHP over its eastern edge during the summers of 1988–2023. A trend reversal is identified: the amount, intensity and frequency of EHP all decreased during 1988–2003 but increased in 2004–2023, with the amount and frequency exhibiting significant rapid growth. These changes are linked to the co‐evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). Their joint expansion enhances EHP via favorable dynamical and thermodynamic configurations, including intensified upper‐level divergence, lower‐level convergence, deep ascending motion, convective instability, 500 hPa specific humidity, and moisture flux convergence. Spatially, SAH expansion primarily promotes EHP over the northeastern TP via thermodynamic processes, whereas WPSH expansion mainly intensifies EHP over the southeastern TP through dynamical forcing.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145183166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ulf Büntgen, Filip Oulehle, Clive Oppenheimer, Jan Svoboda, Yulia V. Erban Kochergina, Michal Rybníček, Tomas Kolar, Martin Novák, Michael Kempf, Mirek Trnka
{"title":"Potential and Limitations of Strontium Isotopic Fingerprinting in Wood","authors":"Ulf Büntgen, Filip Oulehle, Clive Oppenheimer, Jan Svoboda, Yulia V. Erban Kochergina, Michal Rybníček, Tomas Kolar, Martin Novák, Michael Kempf, Mirek Trnka","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117556","url":null,"abstract":"While the isotopic composition of strontium (<jats:sup>87</jats:sup>Sr/<jats:sup>86</jats:sup>Sr) is frequently used in archeological and environmental provenience studies, it remains unclear how bioavailable Sr in organic matter and the food chain reflects bedrock sources. Here, we present Sr isotopic measurements of 24 soil and 120 wood samples from four central European forests with variable basement geology. While <jats:sup>87</jats:sup>Sr/<jats:sup>86</jats:sup>Sr values in bedrock (0.7035–0.7441) and soil (0.7043–0.7552) have a considerable span, wood <jats:sup>87</jats:sup>Sr/<jats:sup>86</jats:sup>Sr values across sites have a much smaller range (0.7041–0.7245), which is closer to the large‐scale atmospheric Sr signature in precipitation (0.7118). Comparable <jats:sup>87</jats:sup>Sr/<jats:sup>86</jats:sup>Sr ratios for different tree species, cambial ages and root systems suggest that bioavailable Sr in wood is little affected by biotic factors. Given the strength of the atmospheric Sr signal we identify, archeological, environmental and forensic fingerprinting should consider high‐resolution spatial isoscape modeling, for which this study provides a baseline for central Europe.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145183250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Ice Cover Cap Evaporation in Large Lakes?","authors":"Eric J. Anderson, Andrew D. Gronewold","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117112","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lakes are experiencing ice declines and fundamental changes in winter conditions. For Earth's largest lakes that experience seasonal ice cover, the relationship between ice conditions and evaporation is critical to water balance estimates and global freshwater storage. Here, we analyze robust data sets of net basin supplies, satellite-derived products, and model estimates of surface turbulent heat flux for the Laurentian Great Lakes during the period 1973–2022. We show that ice cover does not have a strong relationship with lake evaporation in winter months and that often the magnitude of the ice effect on moisture flux reduction is within the range of natural variability and the uncertainty of water budget estimates. This suggests that differences in lake evaporation between cold and warm winters is driven by seasonal overlake atmospheric conditions, more broadly, and that ice cover reduces but does not determine the resultant evaporation.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Theory on Regional Impacts of Global Warming","authors":"Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Yeon-Woo Choi","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118808","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although spatial patterns of the observed and projected global warming are uniform with some relatively small variability, the magnitude and even sign of the projected regional impacts on crop yields, transmission of infectious diseases, outdoor days, and deadly heat waves, among other phenomena, vary significantly between different regions. Here, we offer a theory explaining how an apparently uniform warming with small variability can produce significantly more diverse regional impacts. The natural phenomena behind these impacts are governed by temperature thresholds dictating how the phenomena nonlinearly react to surface temperature, defining optimal ranges. Depending on how the background temperature at any location compares to these thresholds, the nature of the regional impacts of global warming, in sign and magnitude, may vary significantly in space despite relatively uniform warming. Hence, the spatial variability of historical temperature distribution emerges as a significant determinant of some of the projected regional impacts of global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118808","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of Groundwater Head Changes on the Permeability of Bedrock Aquifer-Aquitard Systems","authors":"Xin Liao, Ming-Hao Liu, Zhiqiang Fan, Chen-Yue Hu, Jiang Wang, Yun Shi","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117493","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding how groundwater level changes affect the permeability of bedrock aquifer-aquitard systems is important for groundwater management, yet this relationship remains poorly understood. This study focuses on Tangshan in the northeastern North China Plain, utilizing tidal response analysis to investigate the dynamic interplay between groundwater level trends and permeability variations in bedrock aquifer-aquitard systems. High-frequency groundwater level data from two monitoring wells were employed to reveal a significant positive correlation: rising groundwater head leads to increased permeability of the bedrock aquifer-aquitard system, primarily due to adjustments in groundwater head. This research provides direct evidence that both climate variability and human activities can influence bedrock aquifer-aquitard permeability through changes in the groundwater head. The findings highlight the importance of integrating models of dynamic permeability induced by hydrological processes into groundwater resource management frameworks and hazard assessments, particularly in regions experiencing groundwater level recovery, such as the North China Plain.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117493","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Have Impacts of Intense Arctic Cyclones on Summer Sea Ice Reached a Maximum?","authors":"C. L. Mundi, T. S. L’Ecuyer, A. K. DuVivier","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117848","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observations show that Arctic cyclones can significantly affect the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Understanding how these effects may evolve in the future is critical for accurately predicting future ice loss, yet cyclone-sea ice interactions in global climate models are understudied. This analysis compares output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with observed intense summer cyclone impacts on the MIZ. We find that CESM2-LE reproduces observed net impacts but exhibits compensating biases, where fewer intense cyclones reach the MIZ but decrease ice area more than observed. In a future emission scenario, CESM2-LE predicts more frequent intense cyclones, but as the Arctic warms and late summer ice cover lessens, fewer storms will interact with the retreating ice edge. Subsequently, the largest effects shift earlier in the year, and ice loss from these storms declines after present day, suggesting intense summer cyclone impacts have reached a maximum.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117848","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Entropy-Guided Multivariate Groundwater Network Design for Multi-Source Data Assimilation Under Observational Uncertainty","authors":"Mingxu Cao, Zhenxue Dai, Junjun Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117466","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observational uncertainty poses major challenges to groundwater model calibration. As the primary source of information for multi-source data assimilation, monitoring network design is critical for accurately characterizing subsurface dynamics. Under limited measurement accuracy or cost constraints, monitoring networks must remain robust to observational errors. This study develops a multivariate network design framework that quantifies the uncertainty of multicomponent responses using joint entropy and employs deep learning to accelerate computations. Case study results show that the framework reliably estimates non-Gaussian permeability fields even under high-noise observations. The calibrated reactive transport model demonstrates strong capability in reproducing historical data and predicting system responses. This work advances the understanding of multi-source data fusion and supports the development of groundwater monitoring networks under observational uncertainty. Moreover, the proposed approach can be extended to the design of geophysical survey lines that integrate geophysical data.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117466","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}