Forest Policy and Economics最新文献_第9页

Unsiloed agroforestry research and policy: Livelihood and multifunction as chestnut (Castanea sativa) management priorities for Türkiye 无筒仓农林业研究与政策：生计与多功能作为板栗（Castanea sativa）管理的优先事项

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103474

Jeffrey Wall , Taner Okan , Coşkun Köse , Nesibe Köse , Elif Basak Aksoy

{"title":"Unsiloed agroforestry research and policy: Livelihood and multifunction as chestnut (Castanea sativa) management priorities for Türkiye","authors":"Jeffrey Wall , Taner Okan , Coşkun Köse , Nesibe Köse , Elif Basak Aksoy","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we investigate variation in the priorities for the chestnut tree held by stakeholders across Türkiye in order to highlight the importance of unsiloed research and policy in the study area and beyond. We designed our study to evaluate the operating hypothesis of state agencies who manage the tree in sharp regional contrast, with the western provinces managed overwhelmingly for horticulture, and the northern provinces for silviculture. We utilized ethnobiological methodologies of plant trait preference cataloguing and freelisting to engage and analyze the priorities for chestnut trees for 96 stakeholder households across Türkiye ‘s chestnut suitable territory. We found that no household utilized the tree for one purpose only, that every household used the tree for both its fruits and its timber, and that the vast majority utilized the tree for nuts, timber and one other category of use. We explored the resulting data using saliency analysis, multiple correspondence analysis and geospatial visualization through inverse distance weighting. We found no significant effect of western or northern location on priorities. Our findings substantiate conservation and livelihood development theories which advocate for unsiloed, interdisciplinary research informed by stakeholders, and also showcase an application of agroforestry as a framework for directly amplifying the priorities of livelihood practitioners in the formulation of land use policy. Insights generated by this study support recommendations for Türkiye and beyond, including more thoroughly interdisciplinary research to perpetuate multifunctional use of trees as well as more regional and unified governmental strategies for conservation and rural livelihood viability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103474"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143576913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forest efficiency assessment and prediction using dynamic DEA and machine learning 基于动态DEA和机器学习的森林效率评价与预测

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103461

Sebastián Lozano , Ester Gutiérrez , Andrés Susaeta

{"title":"Forest efficiency assessment and prediction using dynamic DEA and machine learning","authors":"Sebastián Lozano , Ester Gutiérrez , Andrés Susaeta","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a novel Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to assess the efficiency of forests in providing three key ecosystem services: timber production, water yield, and carbon sequestration. Carbon sequestration is modeled as a carryover (along with plot age), while timber production and water yield are considered as outputs. Given that the inputs considered (e.g. annual precipitation and average temperature, tree density, etc) are considered non-discretionary, an output orientation is used. Using a weighted additive normalized-slacks DEA model, efficiency scores are computed for each plot over the entire time horizon and for individual periods. Additionally, efficiency scores for each ecosystem service, along with corresponding slacks (e.g., carbon sequestration shortfall per hectare), are estimated. Aggregate efficiency scores for the full sample are also derived. In a second stage, regression trees (RT) and random forest (RF) models are applied to identify plot characteristics that affect ecosystem service efficiency. A case study of of 84 forest plots in Florida reveals that overall carbon sequestration efficiency exceeds timber production efficiency, with both positively correlated. Private ownership and the implementation of management practices enhance efficiency across all three ecosystem services, particularly for timber production and carbon sequestration. However, the impact of disturbances on efficiency is less clear and appears significant only within certain elevation ranges. In terms of predictive performance, RF outperforms RT in accuracy but offers lower explainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103461"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The European union deforestation regulation: Implications for the global forest sector 欧盟森林砍伐条例：对全球森林部门的影响

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103462

Craig Johnston , Jinggang Guo , Jeffrey P. Prestemon

{"title":"The European union deforestation regulation: Implications for the global forest sector","authors":"Craig Johnston , Jinggang Guo , Jeffrey P. Prestemon","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to prevent deforestation-linked products from entering the EU market. This study assesses the potential impacts of the EUDR on global forest product markets using the FOrest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM), a partial equilibrium model of the global forest sector. We simulate two scenarios: the baseline EUDR, focused on commodity-driven deforestation and urbanization, and an extended EUDR+ scenario, which includes shifting agriculture. The results indicate that high-deforestation countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are expected to face significant reductions in roundwood production and exports, with downstream effects on sawnwood and panel prices. In contrast, low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States may experience slight increases in production to meet EU demand, but their impact is limited by moderate deforestation rates. The study also highlights the potential for market leakage, where deforestation-linked products may shift to non-EU markets, potentially undermining global environmental goals. Importantly, we find that declining deforestation rates could mitigate some of the impacts, reducing the overall effect of the EUDR on global timber harvests. However, the complexity of global supply chains and enforcement challenges in regions with weak governance could limit the regulation's effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103462"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding actors' power through conflict dynamics: Insights from small-scale mining on cocoa farms 通过冲突动态了解行动者的权力：来自可可农场小型采矿的见解

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103458

Eric Mensah Kumeh , Mark Hirons

{"title":"Understanding actors' power through conflict dynamics: Insights from small-scale mining on cocoa farms","authors":"Eric Mensah Kumeh , Mark Hirons","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artisanal and small-scale gold mining at the forest-farm nexus remains a contentious issue due to the diversity of actors and competing interests surrounding it. Using the actor-centered power (ACP) approach, it has been theorized that actors leverage power resources, combining coercion, (dis-)incentives, and dominant information, to influence less powerful actors to act against their preferred interests. How an actor’s power resources evolve during conflicts and its impacts on their preferred interests and goals over time are, however, open questions. Drawing on wave theory, this paper introduces a novel framework to analyze how actors employ power resources and interactions across conflict episodes. We apply the framework to examine how ARTGOLD, an ASM company, used power resources to establish mining operations on cocoa farms in Apesika, a forest-fringe farming community in Ghana, despite local opposition. Initially, ARTGOLD used false information and promises of incentives to gain the support of traditional rulers and state institutions. These alliances enabled it to beneefit from applying different forms of coercion, including police raids on protesters against its mining operations, and discharging mining effluents onto the farms of resistant cocoa farmers. Village level traditional rulers who opposed mining operations faced sanctions from higher-ranking chiefs, ultimately silencing local resistance and enabling ARTGOLD to expand mining on cocoa farms in the study localities. Our analysis reveals shifting power dynamics over time and underscores how actors' power resources evolves in response to the strategies of others. Our theoretical approach enables a better analysis of temporality within the ACP approach. This dynamic approach precipitates the need to pay attention to power resources that may improve the relative power of important but marginalized actors, especially if conflicts over mining on farmlands are to be managed in a manner that safeguards local norms and environmental sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103458"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic impacts of maple syrup production potential in Kentucky: Input-output analysis 肯塔基州枫糖浆生产潜力的经济影响：投入产出分析

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103459

Bobby Thapa , Thomas O. Ochuodho , John M. Lhotka , William Thomas , Jacob Muller , Thomas J. Brandeis , Edward Olale , Mo Zhou , Jingjing Liang

{"title":"Economic impacts of maple syrup production potential in Kentucky: Input-output analysis","authors":"Bobby Thapa , Thomas O. Ochuodho , John M. Lhotka , William Thomas , Jacob Muller , Thomas J. Brandeis , Edward Olale , Mo Zhou , Jingjing Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Maple syrup has been produced in the United States for centuries. This production has been predominantly in the northeast states. Recent studies indicate promising maple syrup potential beyond the traditional boundaries. This study assesses the economic impacts of potential maple syrup production in Kentucky. Using the input-output analytical framework, likely producer price is considered at three maple syrup production potential levels. At a producer price of $9.48 per liter, the potential total impacts range from 336 jobs and $6.2 million in output at the lower production level to 1356 jobs and $25.05 million in output at the high production level. The potential tax impact of the maple industry ranged from $0.39 million at the lower production level to $1.6 million at the high production level. These results demonstrate the potential of maple syrup production to provide economic benefits to the state through job creation and revenue generation. These results could be used as a basis for favorable policies to support and expand maple syrup production as a viable income source for woodland owners in Kentucky and similar maple producing regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103459"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rethinking wildfire management policy: Suggestions from firefighters who experienced the 2017 extreme wildfires in Portugal 重新思考野火管理政策：来自经历2017年葡萄牙极端野火的消防员的建议

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103453

Vittorio Leone , Mario Elia , Raffaella Lovreglio , Julian Lovreglio , Fernando Correia , Fantina Tedim

{"title":"Rethinking wildfire management policy: Suggestions from firefighters who experienced the 2017 extreme wildfires in Portugal","authors":"Vittorio Leone , Mario Elia , Raffaella Lovreglio , Julian Lovreglio , Fernando Correia , Fantina Tedim","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This report analyzes the perspectives of professional and volunteer firefighters who were directly involved in combating extreme wildfire events during Portugal's 2017 fire season. The data were collected through two open-ended questions in a web-based survey, focusing on: i) lessons learned and ii) proposals for improving wildfire suppression management. Responses were qualitatively examined, with categories defined using NVIVO software. Findings reveal that participants exhibit an incomplete understanding of extreme wildfires. Their responses primarily emphasize: i) enhancing the current organizational structure and strengthening technical and human resources within the suppression model (question 1), and ii) increasing human and material resources, establishing a unified command structure, ensuring operational independence from Civil Protection, and valuing experience as key factors for improving Civil Protection (question 2). Minimal attention is directed toward prevention measures and the concept of control capacity. Overall, responses to both questions reflect limited knowledge of the unique challenges posed by extreme wildfires. The prevailing recommendation strengthens the existing suppression model, which is largely viewed as the optimal solution. However, this perspective overlooks the role of the suppression paradigm in contributing to fuel load accumulation and increased fire intensity, as well as its inherent operational limitations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103453"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania 了解坦桑尼亚基隆贝罗河谷农民对恢复树木覆盖的态度和愿望

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103452

Eleanor Durrant , Pete Howson , Susannah M. Sallu , Deo D. Shirima , Margherita Lala , Sergio G. Milheiras , Francis Lyimo , Petro P. Nyiti , Lilian Mwanga , Esther Kioko , Marion Pfeifer

{"title":"Understanding farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania","authors":"Eleanor Durrant , Pete Howson , Susannah M. Sallu , Deo D. Shirima , Margherita Lala , Sergio G. Milheiras , Francis Lyimo , Petro P. Nyiti , Lilian Mwanga , Esther Kioko , Marion Pfeifer","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103452","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Restoring tree cover to meet international commitments requires context-sensitive approaches, such as agroforestry in rural landscapes, that address local concerns and motivations. This study investigates farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania, using a novel combination of participatory future farm scenarios and sentiment analysis. Unlike traditional applications of sentiment analysis on large online datasets, we demonstrate its utility in understanding attitudes in rural contexts, complementing participatory engagement efforts. We explore variables influencing smallholders' aspirations for their future farms, with a focus on agroforestry systems, and examine the impact of gender and wellbeing on perceptions and attitudes towards agroforestry and existing natural forests in the landscape. Our findings indicate positive attitudes towards agroforestry, particularly when it provides direct, tangible benefits. However, forests were viewed negatively due to concerns about resource access and human-wildlife interactions. Men associated tree planting with income opportunities, while women favoured scattered trees for subsistence needs. These results underscore the need for inclusive, gender-sensitive restoration practices that align with local preferences. By tailoring restoration strategies to specific local aspirations, concerns and motivations, we can enhance the effectiveness, equity, and acceptance of tree-cover restoration initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103452"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143508560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How policy instruments affect forest cover: Evidence from China 政策工具如何影响森林覆盖：来自中国的证据

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103455

Ruihuan Hou , Guoyong Ma , Lu Tong

{"title":"How policy instruments affect forest cover: Evidence from China","authors":"Ruihuan Hou , Guoyong Ma , Lu Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The implementation of effective forest governance is of paramount importance for the expansion of forest areas. In this study, we employ a panel dataset comprising 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China from 1999 to 2021, utilising text-mining techniques and a fixed-effects model, to examine the relationship between forest cover and policy instruments. Furthermore, we conduct robustness tests to ensure the validity of the empirical results. The results indicate that: (1) the implementation of comprehensive forest policy instruments in China has significantly contributed to the expansion of forest cover and ensured an increase in forest area; (2) with regard to the impact of policy instruments, economic and political instruments have exerted the most pronounced influence on forest cover, followed by coercion and didactic promotion; (3) state-owned forest areas are more responsive to policy instruments than collective forest areas, and the effects of policy instruments differ significantly between the two. This study underscores the crucial role of the government in promoting forest resource growth in China, reiterating the significance of multidimensional governance in increasing forest cover. Furthermore, it makes a valuable contribution to the quantitative analysis of forest policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103455"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An evaluation of gravity models and artificial neuronal networks on bilateral trade flows in wood markets 对木材市场双边贸易流动的重力模型和人工神经网络的评价

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103457

Christian Morland, Julia Tandetzki, Franziska Schier

{"title":"An evaluation of gravity models and artificial neuronal networks on bilateral trade flows in wood markets","authors":"Christian Morland, Julia Tandetzki, Franziska Schier","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade fuels economic development in interwoven international wood markets, while economic shocks and structural changes jolt market response behavior. In this context, both accurate predictions and forecasts of trade flows and a deep understanding of their influencing factors are essential for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance economic planning and decision-making affecting trade policies. A popular method for analyzing bilateral trade flows is the deterministic Gravity model of trade due to its intuitive design and effectiveness. However, data-driven machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN) could enhance the accuracy of deterministic modeling approaches through their complex and potentially nonlinear nature. To the best of our knowledge, no study exists that uses an ANN approach to assess bilateral trade for different wood-based products was. Therefore, it remains unclear whether ANN is an appropriate method to predict and forecast trade flows in forest product markets or if Gravity models of trade might yield better results. This study compares the ability of Gravity models and feedforward neuronal networks (FFNN) to predict existing and forecast future bilateral trade flows of four main product categories in international wood product markets. Our findings highlight that it is essential to consider the purpose of the analysis alongside the specific product group under investigation. The FFNN approach outperforms Gravity models for predicting past and present trade flows, delivering more accurate predictions across all product categories. Looking at the accuracy of forecast, we see that the superiority of FFNNs is present but decreases as the forecast horizon increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103457"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impacts of climate-induced insect damage on timberland values in the southeastern U.S. 气候引起的昆虫破坏对美国东南部林地价值的影响

IF 4 2区农林科学

Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103449

Yuhan Wang, David J. Lewis

{"title":"The impacts of climate-induced insect damage on timberland values in the southeastern U.S.","authors":"Yuhan Wang, David J. Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates the impacts of insect damage on private timberland values in the Southeastern U.S. using a large, pooled cross-section of parcel-level timberland transaction price data and county-level insect damage data. Our econometric analysis indicates that a 1000 acre increase in a county's average insect damage acreage reduces timberland prices by approximately 1 %. Using a variety of approaches to estimate the link between seasonal precipitation, temperature, and insect damage acreage, we project an average increase of between 168 and 550 additional acres of annual insect damage per county under future climate projections to 2050 relative to the current climate. Using our econometric estimates, the predicted acreage increase in insect damages will lead to an approximate 0.2 % ($6/acre) to 0.5 % ($14/acre) reduction in weighted timberland prices, resulting in total losses of between $1 billion to $2.5 billion for the entire timberland population in the Southeastern U.S. The methods and results highlight how to use empirical data to project future natural disturbance risk from climate change on the economic value of forested natural capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103449"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0