{"title":"Simulation Applied to a Court System","authors":"Jean G. Taylor, Joseph A. Navarro, R. Cohen","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300159","url":null,"abstract":"A computer simulation of the processing of felony defendants in the District of Columbia trial court system was developed using the General Purpose Simulation System language. The court system, data requirements, and results from several runs of the simulation are described.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128290629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Production Management Information System","authors":"J. Reitman, Thomas J. Burke","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300170","url":null,"abstract":"A Management Information System has been developed and implemented using General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS)/360. The system provided the following data for a solid-state production facility: 1) current location of wafers showing work orders started, total daily production, and rejects; 2) yesterday's and accumulated yield by step, and projection of number of finished wafers from this quantity; 3) location of dormant work orders, i.e., orders that had not moved for a specified time; 4) current utilization of equipment and manpower; 5) number of orders awaiting processing at each step and how long they have been waiting; 6) daily operations schedule of wafers to be processed each day according to a predetermined priority structure; and 7) delivery forecast for when orders would be shipped and how the date varies according to resources applied. The inventory status data were structured in GPSS/360 to provide a common data format for both current status and forecasting. This fully operational system was developed to satisfy specific solid-state management requirements. This system was organized in a general manner for flexibility and change and could be modified to be used as a management information system for other types of operations.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128805453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"System Simulation Data Collection","authors":"R. Lessing","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300162","url":null,"abstract":"The Operations Research Staff of the Social Security Administration has undertaken the development of a computer simulation of the claims process in its network of district offices. The objective is to obtain a means of evaluating alternatives of providing the same or equivalent service to the public with less waiting time, less elapsed time, or reduced demands on district office employees. To obtain the data necessary to describe the district office claims process to the simulation program, an integrated horizontal-longitudinal data collection was designed that had an auxiliary managerial value.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124461144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction of a Naval Vessel's Performance","authors":"R. Baxter","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300161","url":null,"abstract":"Norden Division was faced with the task of simulating the shipboard behavior of a large suit of electronics operating under a variety of servicing conditions and supported by specified line and shop servicing facilities and personnel. As with most problems that require simulation, it consisted of large amounts of dynamic data and the complex interrelated constraints of the real world. It soon became apparent that the magnitude of data was such that the core requirements of even the largest computers could easily be exceeded. The response chosen was to unbound the GPSS/360 language to permit virtually unlimited data and model sizes. In unbounding, matrix savevalues and blocks are divided into sections stored on disk until required. Then each load section is called in as an overlay. Moreover, matrix savevalues can be permanently stored on disk. As such they are accessible to other models, thus permitting the establishment of data libraries within General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS).","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130322839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simulation of a Multiprocessing System Using GPSS","authors":"F. Holland, R. A. Merikallio","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300164","url":null,"abstract":"A large General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS) model has been developed to simulate the throughput and capacity of an application-oriented multiprocessing system. The model represents the system in terms of the hardware and software resources and the competitors for these resources. This paper discusses the size of the model, the running time of the model, and the development cycle. It also tabulates the hardware and software resources and the mapping of these resources into GPSS. Some of the possible applications of a model of this nature are discussed as well as some of the GPSS features that were used to conserve computer running time. Finally, some conclusions are drawn based on having developed a model of a large real-time multiprocessing system.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116873961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decision Analysis for Product Development","authors":"W. Cook","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300128","url":null,"abstract":"The decision analysis described considers four major installation development alternatives upon which management decisions were required. The analysis has a number of phases. The technical-economic system is first modeled deterministically to describe the characteristics of the business. The deterministic model, or expected value business model, is then exercised in a sensitivity phase to determine what parameters are most influential to the outcomes. The analysis uses present worth methods for the time preference for money. Pricing strategies and market feedback capability are included. Adjunct businesses that develop as a result of the original business have been modeled in the deterministic model. The deterministic or nominal value outcomes show a clear progression of improvement over a 20 year period for the more technically advanced installation developments. The cost of development is an influential contributor to deterministic outcomes. The influence on near term outcomes of development costs was sufficient to make the issue of time value of outcomes very significant. The value of identifying the short term and long term outcomes on the basis of the time value of outcomes becomes identifiable as a significant contribution to decision making. The thinking which contributed to choosing the parameters used in the uncertainty analysis proved to be an important means of clarifying the issues surrounding what uncertainty analysis of a given development alternative venture really consists of.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117132820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Abbreviated States of the World Decision Model","authors":"P. Fishburn","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300123","url":null,"abstract":"Terminal acts and states of the world are specified, but detailed consequences may not be explicitly listed in an abbreviated states model. Axiomatic analyses of this model, with and without experimentation prior to the selection of a terminal act, are presented. In the abbreviated model, state probabilities are not defined, but the analysis is similar in many ways to more specialized models that permit derivations of state probabilities.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126156468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bayesian Autoregressive Time Series Analysis","authors":"E. G. Hurst","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300125","url":null,"abstract":"Two Bayesian autoregressive time series models for partially observable dynamic processes are presented. In the first model, a general inference procedure is developed for the situation in which k previous values of the time series plus a change error determine the next value. This general model is specialized to an example in which the observational and change errors follow a normal probability law; the results for k = 1 are given and discussed. The second general model adds the facility for simultaneously inferring an unknown and unchanging parameter of the time series. This model is specialized to the same normal example presented earlier, with the precision of the change error as the unknown process parameter.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130427166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probabilistic Information Processing Systems: Design and Evaluation","authors":"W. Edwards, L. Phillips, W. Hays, B. C. Goodman","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300119","url":null,"abstract":"A Probabilistic Information Processing System (PIP) uses men and machines in a novel way to perform diagnostic information processing. Men estimate likelihood ratios for each datum and each pair of hypotheses under consideration or a sufficient subset of these pairs. A computer aggregates these estimates by means of Bayes' theorem of probability theory into a posterior distribution that reflects the impact of all available data on all hypotheses being considered. Such a system circumvents human conservatism in information processing, the inability of men to aggregate information in such a way as to modify their opinions as much as the available data justify. It also fragments the job of evaluating diagnostic information into small separable tasks. The posterior distributions that are a PIP's output may be used as a guide to human decision making or may be combined with a payoff matrix to make decisions by means of the principle of maximizing expected value. A large simulation-type experiment compared a PIP with three other information processing systems in a simulated strategic war setting of the 1970's. The difference between PIP and its competitors was that in PIP the information was aggregated by computer, while in the other three systems, the operators aggregated the information in their heads. PIP processed the information dramatically more efficiently than did any competitor. Data that would lead PIP to give 99:1 odds in favor of a hypothesis led the next best system to give 4?: 1 odds.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124489199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economic Value of Analysis and Computation","authors":"J. Matheson","doi":"10.1109/TSSC.1968.300126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1968.300126","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows how the decision analysis approach can be used to determine the most economic method of carrying out computations or analyses. A primary decision problem is first formulated to obtain a structure for the analysis. Then several computational or analytical procedures, which can be used to analyze the primary decision problem in greater detail, are evaluated to select the most economic procedure. The purpose of each of these procedures is to increase the available information about uncertain parameters before making the primary decision, thereby yielding a \"better\" decision. Each procedure is evaluated by combining the value structure of the primary decision problem with a model of that procedure. The procedures considered in this paper are clairvoyance, complete analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, and numerical analysis. An example of a bidding problem is used to illustrate the results.","PeriodicalId":120916,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern.","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1968-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131266425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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