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How media discourse constructs the role of new energy policies in addressing energy challenges: A comparative analysis of China and the U.S. 媒体话语如何构建新能源政策在应对能源挑战中的作用:中美对比分析
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114807
Cheng Chen , Renping Liu
{"title":"How media discourse constructs the role of new energy policies in addressing energy challenges: A comparative analysis of China and the U.S.","authors":"Cheng Chen ,&nbsp;Renping Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how new energy policies in China and the U.S. are represented and framed in mass media discourse. Rather than analyzing policy formulation themselves, the study focuses on media narratives, which shape public perceptions, influence stakeholder engagement and reflect national approaches to energy transitions, thus providing insights beyond traditional economics- or technology-centered perspectives. Through a comparative corpus-based analysis of news data, the study identifies distinct framing strategies shaped by national energy policies, governance approaches, and socio-political contexts as reflected in media discourse. The results indicate that Chinese media tend to emphasize structured, long-term planning, technological advancements and international cooperation, which reinforces a positive vision of coordinated progress in renewable energy transitions. In contrast, U.S. media often highlight political polarization, shifting policy priorities and geopolitical competition, underscoring the challenges of fragmented decision-making and the pursuit of energy independence. These differing narratives correspond with broader governance models—China's more centralized and goal-oriented strategy appears associated with large-scale renewable energy deployment, while the U.S. approach, influenced by political cycles and market forces, is often associated with policy volatility and stakeholder-driven innovation. The findings suggest correlations between governance styles and media framing patterns, where centralized planning may facilitate rapid infrastructure development and global partnerships, whereas decentralized governance encourages technological diversification and public discourse. By illustrating how media discourse reflects energy transitions, this study contributes to broader discussions on global sustainability, policy integration, and the evolving role of media in energy governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114807"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy pathways for renewable energy, health, and sustainability in sub-saharan Africa: An empirical assessment of energy access and life expectancy 撒哈拉以南非洲可再生能源、健康和可持续性的政策途径:对能源获取和预期寿命的实证评估
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114801
Sohidul Islam , Md. Mustaqim Roshid , Reday Chandra Bhowmik , Bablu Kumar Dhar , Asif Raihan , Rejaul Karim
{"title":"Policy pathways for renewable energy, health, and sustainability in sub-saharan Africa: An empirical assessment of energy access and life expectancy","authors":"Sohidul Islam ,&nbsp;Md. Mustaqim Roshid ,&nbsp;Reday Chandra Bhowmik ,&nbsp;Bablu Kumar Dhar ,&nbsp;Asif Raihan ,&nbsp;Rejaul Karim","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effects of renewable energy consumption, health expenditure, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, GDP, and population growth on life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It uses unbalanced panel data from 46 SSA countries spanning 1995–2023. To ensure robustness and address cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the study applies Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Quantile Regression (QR), offering insights across the distribution of life expectancy. The results show that GDP and health expenditure positively influence life expectancy, while CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and population growth have significant negative impacts. Notably, renewable energy consumption is negatively associated with life expectancy, suggesting that limited access, inefficient technologies, and weak institutions constrain health benefits in the region. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about the automatic advantages of clean energy in low-capacity settings. The study recommends region-specific, actionable policies such as expanding decentralized renewable energy systems, increasing investment in primary healthcare infrastructure, and integrating energy and health planning at the national level. These measures are essential to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3 (Good Health), 7 (Clean Energy), and 13 (Climate Action), and provide a roadmap for inclusive and resilient development in SSA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114801"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic analysis of free & subsidized power supply versus solar PV cell subsidy towards sustainable agriculture in India - An external cost approach and policy implications 印度免费和补贴电力供应与太阳能光伏电池补贴对可持续农业的经济分析——外部成本方法和政策影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114811
S Shri Ram Kumar , S Rahul Bharath , Srinivasan Periaswamy
{"title":"Economic analysis of free & subsidized power supply versus solar PV cell subsidy towards sustainable agriculture in India - An external cost approach and policy implications","authors":"S Shri Ram Kumar ,&nbsp;S Rahul Bharath ,&nbsp;Srinivasan Periaswamy","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India's agricultural sector receives extensive support through free or subsidized electricity for irrigation, creating long-term fiscal stress for state governments and contributing to emissions from coal-based power generation. This study presents a comparative economic and environmental assessment of subsidized electricity versus a transition to solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Using Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) modeling, the study integrates external environmental and health costs through the ExternE framework, localized for Indian conditions. A state-level cost–benefit analysis quantifies the potential savings from reduced subsidies and avoided coal generation, against the capital investment needed for PV deployment. Monte Carlo simulations using the Reserve Bank of India's 4 % ± 2 % inflation target range model long-term variability in electricity costs, enabling more realistic and risk-aware projections. Results show that solar PV becomes more economical than coal when externalities are considered, with LCOE estimates for coal rising to ₹20.49–22.41/kWh by 2045 compared to ₹7.46–8.16/kWh for solar. Most states can recover PV investment within 2.4–5.4 years. The findings support a policy shift toward capital subsidies for decentralized solar PV, offering both fiscal relief and environmental benefits. The study contributes to evidence-based policymaking for sustainable agriculture and cleaner energy transitions in India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114811"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional coordination for emission reduction and energy supply in transition: A spatiotemporally adaptive policy framework based on markets dynamic reconstruction 转型期减排与能源供应区域协调:基于市场动态重构的时空适应性政策框架
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114803
Baojun Tang , Huchen Feng , Ru Li
{"title":"Regional coordination for emission reduction and energy supply in transition: A spatiotemporally adaptive policy framework based on markets dynamic reconstruction","authors":"Baojun Tang ,&nbsp;Huchen Feng ,&nbsp;Ru Li","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a core area of the global carbon neutrality process, the orderly transition of the power system faces the challenge of reconciling energy and environmental aspects. However, the coordination paths of parallel mechanisms for multi-regional power producers have not yet been systematically adjusted based on market states. Taking China's power sector as an example, this study constructs a framework for the coupled operation of the carbon market and the power market considering regional heterogeneity and proposes the Response-Trend-Accumulation-Shap mechanism to reconstruct and transform the market coupling trend to coordinate the operation of the carbon quota and capacity compensation mechanisms. The study shows that the coordination mechanism can compress the carbon emission space by 1.5 billion tons from 2021 to 2060 based on achieving the integrated target, and can regulate the implementation strength of different mechanisms in phases according to regional transformation characteristics. Finally, policy proposals are made to flexibly adjust the benchmark value of carbon quotas and differentiate capacity compensation policies, to achieve a balance between carbon emission reduction and energy supply under heterogeneous regional conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114803"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electric vehicle market dynamics: A multi-agent approach to policy, infrastructure, and consumer behavior 电动汽车市场动态:政策、基础设施和消费者行为的多代理方法
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114800
Javier Moralejo Piñas , Francisco Martinez-Gil , Maria Soriano Santacruz , Fernando Fernández
{"title":"Electric vehicle market dynamics: A multi-agent approach to policy, infrastructure, and consumer behavior","authors":"Javier Moralejo Piñas ,&nbsp;Francisco Martinez-Gil ,&nbsp;Maria Soriano Santacruz ,&nbsp;Fernando Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to sustainable mobility is a critical component to reducing carbon emissions. However, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is influenced by complex interactions among various stakeholders, including consumers, energy companies, and government bodies. This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) of electric vehicle adoption and a multi-agent system (MAS) implemented to simulate and analyze these interactions within the EV market. By means of year-based temporal simulations, the framework provides insights into the factors driving EV adoption, consumer satisfaction, and the economic viability of energy infrastructure investments. A key strength of our ABM approach is its ability to capture the emergent dynamics arising from local interactions among heterogeneous agents. These micro-level behaviors collectively form a complex ecosystem that can influence the decision-making processes of higher-level stakeholders such as governments and firms, an aspect that is typically unaddressed in more aggregated, non-agent-based approaches. We test our model by simulating the EV market of a mid-sized city (170,000 inhabitants). Across several experimental scenarios, the system demonstrates how local strategic interactions among heterogeneous agent types give rise to emergent global outcomes and collective behavioral patterns. For example, improvements in charging speed and station availability can enhance user experience and facilitate broader EV adoption. Likewise, optimizing service station configurations can influence driver decision-making, leading to increased profitability for energy providers. This framework captures emerging market behaviors and serves as a robust tool to evaluate the impacts of various policies and market conditions, supporting informed decisions toward sustainable transportation solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114800"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A revisiting of 2021 Japanese electricity spot market dysfunction event: How it happened and what can we learn from it? 回顾2021年日本电力现货市场功能失调事件:它是如何发生的,我们能从中学到什么?
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114802
Hong-Zhou Li , Lin-Lan Bu , Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen , Mika Goto
{"title":"A revisiting of 2021 Japanese electricity spot market dysfunction event: How it happened and what can we learn from it?","authors":"Hong-Zhou Li ,&nbsp;Lin-Lan Bu ,&nbsp;Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen ,&nbsp;Mika Goto","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114802","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114802","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In January 2021, despite the absence of natural disasters, Japan's electricity spot market experienced a significant dysfunction lasting more than 40 days. During this period, prices surged from 10 JPY/kWh to 251 JPY/kWh, an unprecedented event in Japan's electricity market's history. Research indicates that this incident is causally linked to the design of relevant institutions, which not only failed to provide effective hedging mechanisms but also exacerbated the negative impact of exogenous factors on the electricity spot market. Specifically, the primary causes include an imperfect pricing mechanism for unbalanced power, inadequate systems for information collection and disclosure, potential cross-subsidies within incumbent power companies, and impractical market risk diversification mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114802"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is energy aid a panacea for energy poverty? Evidence from developing countries 能源援助是解决能源贫困的灵丹妙药吗?来自发展中国家的证据
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114809
Xiao-Yu Xu , Jia-Hui Peng , Ke-Liang Wang , Zhen-Hua Zhang
{"title":"Is energy aid a panacea for energy poverty? Evidence from developing countries","authors":"Xiao-Yu Xu ,&nbsp;Jia-Hui Peng ,&nbsp;Ke-Liang Wang ,&nbsp;Zhen-Hua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty remains a critical barrier to sustainable development in the 21st century, particularly in developing countries. Energy aid, which includes financial assistance, technology transfer, and policy cooperation from developed nations and international organizations, has been increasingly utilized to alleviate energy poverty. However, the effectiveness of energy aid in reducing energy poverty and the mechanisms through which it operates remain underexplored. This study employs a panel dataset covering 48 developing countries from 2010 to 2019 to empirically examine the impact of energy aid on energy poverty. Using the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) approach, the findings confirm that energy aid significantly reduces energy poverty. Moreover, the study identifies two key mechanisms: (1) energy aid promotes energy structure upgrading, facilitating the transition to cleaner energy sources and improving energy accessibility and affordability; and (2) governance quality plays a crucial moderating role, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of energy aid utilization. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of energy aid varies by income level, population density, and the severity of energy poverty, with aid being more effective in higher-income and lower-density regions. These findings offer useful guidance for policymakers, highlighting the need for well-planned energy aid programs, stronger governance, and better energy infrastructure to ensure fair and lasting energy access.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114809"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Residential solar photovoltaic seeding effects and their unequal impact on diffusion across racial and ethnic groups in the U.S. 住宅太阳能光伏播种效应及其对美国种族和族裔群体扩散的不平等影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114782
SayedMorteza Malaekeh , Sergio Castellanos
{"title":"Residential solar photovoltaic seeding effects and their unequal impact on diffusion across racial and ethnic groups in the U.S.","authors":"SayedMorteza Malaekeh ,&nbsp;Sergio Castellanos","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of early adopters (“initial seeds”) on the diffusion of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems across racial and ethnic communities in the U.S. Using an event study model with comprehensive controls, we evaluate and quantify the impact over time of adoption patterns. Results indicate that the <strong>seed impact</strong>—the incremental effect on subsequent solar PV installations triggered by initial adopters—remains significantly positive across all racial and ethnic groups. However, we observe notable differences in the strength and persistence of these seed impacts: Black-majority block groups experience a robust immediate seed impact that diminishes over time, while Hispanic- and Asian-majority block groups exhibit smaller initial seed impacts that intensify in subsequent periods. Our findings highlight that equitable solar PV adoption requires hybrid policy strategies tailored to community-specific adoption dynamics and barriers. Short-term incentives should lower initial hurdles and stimulate early visible adoption, while long-term efforts must prioritize culturally informed outreach, trust-building, and educational programs to sustain diffusion. Policymakers should explicitly incorporate peer-driven network externalities into cost-benefit analyses, recognizing initial installations as strategic investments that activate broader community engagement, thereby enhancing both the scale and inclusivity of clean energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114782"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peak loads, health, and energy equality: The effects of demand-side electricity efficiency interventions 高峰负荷、健康和能源平等:需求侧电力效率干预的影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114797
Baxter Kamana-Williams , R.J. Hooper , Jamie Silk , Daniel Gnoth , J. Geoffrey Chase
{"title":"Peak loads, health, and energy equality: The effects of demand-side electricity efficiency interventions","authors":"Baxter Kamana-Williams ,&nbsp;R.J. Hooper ,&nbsp;Jamie Silk ,&nbsp;Daniel Gnoth ,&nbsp;J. Geoffrey Chase","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electrification is key for climate change mitigation but, if unmanaged, risks increasing energy poverty, inequalities, and peak electricity demand. While demand response to reduce peak electricity demand has been the subject of extensive research, the effects of energy efficiency interventions for wider health system and socioeconomic outcomes are less studied. This study assesses the impact of seven energy efficiency interventions on peak electricity demand in residential neighbourhoods in Aotearoa New Zealand, and compares these effects with wider system outcomes, including demonstrated direct health system costs. Using a validated agent-based model of energy use, electricity demand is simulated across socioeconomic and geographic conditions. Most energy efficiency interventions reduce peak electricity demand, with reductions of 0.08–1.64 kW/house (4–37 %). Socioeconomic variations highlight the importance of targeting energy efficiency interventions to maximise whole-system outcomes. This study suggests increasing efficiency standards, accompanied by subsidies for low-income households, would enhance these benefits. However, average effects are skewed towards the highest-income neighbourhoods and do not represent the bottom 75 % of neighbourhoods, meaning targeted subsidies would be preferable to avoid policy choices appearing biased towards wealthier segments, as well as being preferable in terms of economic efficiency and avoiding any increase in existing inequalities and energy poverty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114797"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Power system expansion and renewable integration for drought-resilient electrification in Zambia 赞比亚电力系统扩展和可再生能源整合,实现抗旱电气化
IF 9.3 2区 经济学
Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114786
Anas Abuzayed , Albert Chitandula , Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni , Albert Solá Vilalta
{"title":"Power system expansion and renewable integration for drought-resilient electrification in Zambia","authors":"Anas Abuzayed ,&nbsp;Albert Chitandula ,&nbsp;Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni ,&nbsp;Albert Solá Vilalta","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Zambia’s electricity sector relies heavily on hydropower, making it vulnerable to climate-induced hydrological variability, as seen in recent droughts causing severe load shedding and economic disruption. This study explores pathways to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 in Zambia, assessing the trade-offs between grid stability, climate targets, and equitable access. Using policy-driven scenarios, the analysis incorporates electricity demand growth, hydrological variability, and coal deployment to model system transitions. The results highlight that solar and wind energy are vital for diversifying Zambia’s energy mix and reducing reliance on hydropower. Even in the absence of increased access efforts, at least 2.6 GW of solar power will be required by 2030, while under higher electricity access or low hydropower availability, solar could reach 8.4 GW and wind could exceed 4 GW. Flexible technologies such as biomass, coal, and battery storage are essential to maintaining grid reliability during dry hydropower periods. However, coal poses long-term sustainability concerns. This research adds to the emerging body of knowledge by incorporating off-grid solutions and demonstrating that achieving universal access requires a balanced approach. Strategies combining grid extension with decentralized solutions like solar home systems and mini-grids offer the lowest electrification costs per capita at $111 and $120, respectively, while achieving universal electricity access by 2030. In contrast, grid-dominant strategies are costlier and less inclusive. The paper concludes with policy recommendations, emphasizing the need to modernize infrastructure, support decentralized renewables, and mobilize investment, providing actionable insights for a resilient and inclusive energy transition in Zambia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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