Energy Policy最新文献_第9页

Determining the impact of future load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and monthly electricity bills in a rural solar PV mini-grid 确定未来负荷构成对农村太阳能光伏微型电网成本反射关税和月度电费的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115058

Milky Ali Gelchu , Jimmy Ehnberg , Dereje Shiferaw , Erik O. Ahlgren

{"title":"Determining the impact of future load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and monthly electricity bills in a rural solar PV mini-grid","authors":"Milky Ali Gelchu , Jimmy Ehnberg , Dereje Shiferaw , Erik O. Ahlgren","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Renewables-based mini-grids can significantly increase electricity access in rural, non-electrified areas. Despite their potential, mini-grid deployment has been slower than expected due to low profitability in areas with initially low demand. Tariff settings that would improve profitability are challenging due to uncertainty of future demand. While previous studies have explored how tariff settings affect demand and how productive use increases profitability, the impact of load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and users' bills remains unexplored. This study determines the impact of future load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and monthly electricity bills in a rural solar PV mini-grid. By combining a case with an already installed solar PV-based mini-grid with spare capacity for future demand evolution and three future load composition scenarios, the study calculates cost-reflective tariffs under five different tariff structures (fixed energy, fixed and variable, time-of-use, power, and hybrid) and users monthly bills using the calculated cost-reflective tariffs. The results show that future load compositions significantly impact cost-reflective tariffs and monthly bills, with the effect depending on the tariff structure. Power-based tariffs show a higher reduction compared to energy-based tariffs for load compositions dominated by daily productive uses. The impact on bills for lower-usage households is significant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115058"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When energy transitions drive polarization: Narratives of green energy and mitigation strategies by proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia 当能源转型推动两极分化：印度尼西亚地热能源开发的支持者和反对者对绿色能源和缓解战略的叙述

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115080

Jonathan Davis Smith , Martha Hesty Susilowati , Samsul Maarif , Eko Cahyono

{"title":"When energy transitions drive polarization: Narratives of green energy and mitigation strategies by proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia","authors":"Jonathan Davis Smith , Martha Hesty Susilowati , Samsul Maarif , Eko Cahyono","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article contributes to research on social acceptance of energy transitions by analyzing environmental polarization between proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia. It is based on data from a 2024–2025 study which used community-based participatory research in 14 locations with geothermal developments. Due to its location on the ring of fire, Indonesia offers a wealth of untapped resources for geothermal energy; full utilization of this energy source could reduce the nation's reliance on coal-fired power plants. Yet the rapid increase of geothermal developments since 2021 has led to public opposition. The study found evidence of actual polarization between elites and local communities in 1) contrasting narratives about green energy, and 2) contrasting mitigation strategies to address community polarization. These findings explain how social acceptance of energy transitions can be a barrier or an asset depending on 1) how socio-cultural values align between environmental policymakers and local communities, and 2) how methods for obtaining community acceptance align with principles of mitigating environmental polarization: open communication, deliberation, and collective action. The article recommends that 1) community resistance to geothermal developments should be viewed as a sign that environmental policies are increasing harmful polarization, 2) local communities and local knowledges should be viewed as socio-cultural assets to develop just green energy policies that improve local and national economic outputs alongside reducing carbon emissions and promoting healthy ecosystems, and 3) spaces for open deliberation about renewable energy transitions are needed to inform environmental policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115080"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The U.S. shale energy sector navigating domestic policies in a fragmenting global economy 在全球经济分化的背景下，美国页岩能源行业如何引导国内政策

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115076

Valentina Galvani , Noha A. Razek

{"title":"The U.S. shale energy sector navigating domestic policies in a fragmenting global economy","authors":"Valentina Galvani , Noha A. Razek","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The stated goal of the U.S. Energy Dominance Council is to support the U.S. energy sector by leveraging private-sector investments and bolstering U.S. energy independence, while also reducing energy prices. This study empirically examines economic and financial drivers, both domestic and global, of shale energy companies’ equity returns to provide sector-specific policy recommendations. Since the oil market is internationally connected, the shale energy sector is not insulated from the impact of geopolitical tensions. Hence, we also explore the impact of a variety of geopolitical risk measures in determining U.S. shale energy equity returns. We employ the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) methodology to accommodate relationships that vary across different oil-price regimes. We conclude that support for the shale energy sector aimed at alleviating the impact of leverage costs (e.g., subsidies or reforms to the reserve-based lending framework) should be mostly limited to periods of low oil prices. Most oil-dependent economies establish stabilization funds to save oil proceeds during periods of high oil prices, with the savings intended to maintain aggregate consumption and government investment levels on rainy days, when oil prices are low. We propose that the U.S. government could consider this approach to smooth shale energy investments across regimes. In recent history, Saudi Arabia has been the ultimate winner of geopolitical events impacting its competitors in the global oil market. The novelty brought about by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict is that geopolitical risk boosted the valuations of U.S. shale energy companies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115076"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Solar irrigation and just energy transitions in agriculture: Insights from evaluation of Gujarat's SKY program 太阳能灌溉和农业能源转换：来自古吉拉特邦SKY项目评估的见解

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114999

Deepak Varshney , Aditi Mukherji , Kriti Sharma , Anurag Banerjee , Alok Sikka

{"title":"Solar irrigation and just energy transitions in agriculture: Insights from evaluation of Gujarat's SKY program","authors":"Deepak Varshney , Aditi Mukherji , Kriti Sharma , Anurag Banerjee , Alok Sikka","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Set against the backdrop of reducing agricultural emissions, improving smallholder livelihoods, and promoting sustainable groundwater use, this paper evaluates the Surya Shakti Kisan Yojana (SKY)—the world's first large-scale grid-connected solar irrigation pump (SIP) scheme, launched in Gujarat, India in 2018. Using real-time monitoring data from 4321 farmers and a primary survey of 2435 farmers, the study addresses three core objectives. First, it examines the determinants of SKY participation and evaluates the scheme's technical performance, financial features, and income effects. Our findings reveal that financial constraints and risk aversion among smallholder farmers hinder scheme adoption. Farmers earn up to ₹ 21,917 (∼USD 257) annually from electricity sales—43 % of their crop income—even after repaying an annual loan of ₹ 105,000 (∼USD 1235). The simulation suggests that extending the loan repayment period from 7 to 10 years could nearly double farmers' income from energy sales. Second, the study assesses SKY's impact on energy use for groundwater extraction. During the Rabi (dry) season, SKY-enrolled farmers show significantly slower growth in energy consumption than non-enrolled farmers, indicating more sustainable water use. No such difference is observed in the Kharif (monsoon) season. Third, it estimates SKY's climate mitigation potential. Each participant offsets about 12.34 metric tons of CO<sub>2</sub> annually—over twice the impact of off-grid systems—yielding 53,308 metric tons of CO<sub>2</sub> abatement across 4321 farmers. These findings demonstrates grid-connected SIP as a scalable, climate-aligned model for energy transitions in the Global South, offering practical insights for integrated energy-water-livelihood strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 114999"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of minimum energy efficiency standards on the private rental market 最低能源效益标准对私人租赁市场的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115039

Franz Fuerst , Xinyan Huang , Martin Sheppard

{"title":"The impact of minimum energy efficiency standards on the private rental market","authors":"Franz Fuerst , Xinyan Huang , Martin Sheppard","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The decarbonisation of the built environment constitutes a critical frontier in global climate mitigation, yet it presents substantial challenges within the Private Rental Sector (PRS), where the “split incentive” problem results in landlords bearing the upfront costs of energy retrofits while tenants capture both economic benefits, such as reduced energy bills, and non-economic benefits, including improved thermal comfort, indoor air quality, and wellbeing. This study examines the economic effects of the UK's Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES), which restrict the ability of landlords to let out properties with the lowest two Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings, F and G. Using a uniquely comprehensive dataset linking over 520,000 rental listings with seven million property sales records, we employ a dual empirical strategy combining an EPC index-based Difference-in-Differences framework with a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design. The results reveal no statistically significant impact on rents for F-G rated properties and no spillover effects for potentially “next-in-line” D and E-rated properties. Large-sample evidence further indicates a slight increase in PRS property sales relative to other housing tenures following the implementation of MEES. These findings suggest that MEES has successfully driven improvements in building energy efficiency without inducing rent inflation and has exerted only a minimal effect on aggregate PRS supply, providing critical insights for the design of policies aimed at achieving net-zero targets in rental housing markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115039"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting roles of renewable and fossil energy in the ENTSO-E countries: Evidence from a novel war-induced energy intensity index 可再生能源和化石能源在东东欧国家的角色转变：来自战争引发的新型能源强度指数的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083

Guanghao Wang , Hung Xuan Do , Chenghao Liu , Erwann Sbai , Emilson Silva

{"title":"Shifting roles of renewable and fossil energy in the ENTSO-E countries: Evidence from a novel war-induced energy intensity index","authors":"Guanghao Wang , Hung Xuan Do , Chenghao Liu , Erwann Sbai , Emilson Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Russia-Ukraine war, escalating in February 2022, severely disrupted European energy markets. This conflict significantly increases energy security concerns and drives costs to unprecedented levels. This study investigates the evolving roles of renewable and fossil energy in mitigating this insecurity. We introduce a novel War-Induced Energy Intensity (WEI) index, constructed from over 507,574 news reports and tweets using large language models (LLMs). Our employed LLMs enable us to apply a scoring framework that precisely captures the intensity of fossil energy induced by the war. Validation tests across 24 European countries confirm that our WEI outperforms existing geopolitical risk indices in explaining wholesale electricity market dynamics. A structural break test identifies a significant market shift in early 2022, coinciding with the conflict's outbreak. This provides a statistical basis for our pre- and post-conflict analysis, which reveals a reversal of roles. Before 2022, fossil fuels played a stabilizing role in electricity markets. After the conflict began, their supply disruptions exacerbated market risks. In contrast, renewable energy sources – particularly wind, solar, and hydropower – emerged as key stabilizers, significantly reducing market instability. These findings underscore the growing importance of renewables in ensuring energy security during geopolitical crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115083"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions on the EU-Russian energy market: Evidence on crude oil and natural gas 欧盟经济制裁对欧盟-俄罗斯能源市场的动态影响：基于原油和天然气的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996

Diana Chen, Xiaohong Yu, Eduardo Pardo-Piñashca

{"title":"Dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions on the EU-Russian energy market: Evidence on crude oil and natural gas","authors":"Diana Chen, Xiaohong Yu, Eduardo Pardo-Piñashca","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of economic sanctions on Russia has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the EU energy systems. In this context, the study analyzes the dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions against Russia on crude oil price, natural gas price, and EU dependence on Russian crude oil and natural gas. The study introduces a novel Economic Sanction Effectiveness index composed of sanction type, economic leverage, media effect, and time decay. Incorporating this index in the SVAR model, the results show: (1) crude oil and natural gas prices rise after a sanction shock, then fall below their baseline; <strong>(</strong>2) following a sanction shock, EU dependence on Russian crude oil falls quickly and continues to decline during the first year; (3) EU dependence on Russian natural gas shows no immediate effect after the sanction shock, but begins to decrease after three months; (4) economic sanctions account for up to 30 % and 40 % of the fluctuations of EU dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil; (5) historical decomposition highlights the implementation of the oil price cap as a key event that shifted the impact of sanction shocks. Overall, the results offer valuable empirical insights for policymakers regarding the implications of sanctions on energy markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 114996"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decarbonizing residential space heating with heat pumps in the United States 在美国用热泵使住宅空间供暖脱碳

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114997

Roxana T. Shafiee , Daniel P. Schrag

{"title":"Decarbonizing residential space heating with heat pumps in the United States","authors":"Roxana T. Shafiee , Daniel P. Schrag","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heat pumps are a critical technology for decarbonizing the buildings sector, but adoption rates remain low in the United States. Here, we examine policies to promote widespread heat pump uptake based on a national-scale analysis of the impact of heat pump adoption on consumer heating bills and patterns of heating usage across the contiguous United States. At current fuel prices, we show that heat pump adoption would widely reduce heating bills in households using electric resistance, propane, or oil. Drawing on residential energy consumption data, we highlight that for these households, policy interventions should focus on overcoming barriers associated with financing and include incentives for landlords to implement heat pump upgrades in multi-unit dwellings reliant on electric heating. However, for approximately half of U.S. residential heating energy demand—households using natural gas in northern regions with cold winters—our analysis shows that heat pump adoption would significantly raise annual heating bills. In these regions and households, policies should prioritize lowering the price of electricity, such as through time-of-use pricing structures, paired with technologies like thermal storage that allow households to shift heating to lower-cost periods. More generally, targeting high electricity prices will be essential to promoting electrification across all sectors in these regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 114997"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145735006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regional heterogeneity and policy evolution of China's new energy vehicle development: A multi-dimensional analysis based on dynamic time warping clustering and dual policy frameworks 中国新能源汽车发展的区域异质性与政策演变——基于动态时间规整聚类和双重政策框架的多维分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115072

Chunning Wang, Yifen Yin, Jingwen Cai, Haoqian Hu

{"title":"Regional heterogeneity and policy evolution of China's new energy vehicle development: A multi-dimensional analysis based on dynamic time warping clustering and dual policy frameworks","authors":"Chunning Wang, Yifen Yin, Jingwen Cai, Haoqian Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing the critical challenge of regional imbalance in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, this study investigates the dynamic co-evolution between regional development patterns and policy intervention logics. We analyzed multidimensional provincial time-series data (2014–2023) covering NEV production, sales, ownership, and infrastructure, alongside 950 provincial policy documents (2009–2023). Methodologically, dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering was employed to capture non-linear development trajectories, while a dual analytical framework combining Hood's NATO typology and Vedung's trichotomy assessed the evolution of policy attention and instrument mixes. Key findings reveal six unique NEV development patterns driven by distinct system logics. Crucially, normalized policy analysis uncovers structural mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity: Innovation-Leading regions employ a “dual-engine” strategy of high regulation and incentives; Follow-up Development regions rely on a “compensatory strategy” with the highest intensity of fiscal subsidies to overcome latecomer disadvantages; while Potential Cultivation regions exhibit a “state-entrepreneurship” model prioritizing organizational tools for infrastructure creation. The research further identifies a spatially staggered transition in policy evolution, highlighting a shift from single-tool dominance to synergistic policy mixes. This study establishes an industry-policy co-evolutionary framework, offering crucial insights for optimizing regional NEV strategies—such as pivoting to carbon trading in leading regions and focusing on energy-transport coupling in lagging regions—ultimately fostering more balanced and sustainable growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115072"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Divergent paths: A machine learning analysis of post-pandemic decarbonization trajectories and the global climate policy imperative 发散路径：大流行后脱碳轨迹和全球气候政策必要性的机器学习分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115049

Solomon Evro, Moones Alamooti, Olusegun S. Tomomewo

{"title":"Divergent paths: A machine learning analysis of post-pandemic decarbonization trajectories and the global climate policy imperative","authors":"Solomon Evro, Moones Alamooti, Olusegun S. Tomomewo","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes global decarbonization pathways using trend and machine learning–based clustering of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from 20 major economies responsible for over 80 % of global emissions. The model used emissions intensity (CO<sub>2</sub>/TJ) and absolute levels in million tons (Mt) per annum. The analysis identified four archetypes: Sustainable Performers, Scale Challenges, Efficiency Laggards, and Critical Emitters. The pandemic was a reflexive experiment that exposed the fragility of decarbonization progress, signaled by differing recovery strategies. Gains from green stimulus investments in countries like Germany, the U.K., and the U.S. were counterbalanced by much sharper post-pandemic rebounds in China (+407 Mt/year), India, and Nigeria (+7.1 CO<sub>2</sub>/TJ/year) under fossil-intensive recoveries driven by energy security concerns. Scenario modeling shows that only the Net Zero pathway with an 83 % emissions reduction by 2050 adheres to the 1.5 °C climate target, while an imminently projected business-as-usual growth would overshoot global emissions of 53–55 Gt by 2030 and breach the 2 °C limit. There are still many relevant structural barriers left unattended: policy inertia, fragmented recovery policies, and entrenched dependence on fossil fuels. A coalition-based global approach is the only way forward and should include binding emissions targets, scaled-up clean energy finance, and promoting equity in low-carbon infrastructure access. Projections based on these clusters indicate a most-likely trajectory of ∼40 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>/year by 2050, a projection insufficient for either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C pathways. If left unaddressed, global decarbonization will fracture along clusters, structural and geopolitical lines, derailing climate goals while deepening global inequality. This analysis offers a reproducible framework to classify national transitions and guide equitable, cluster-based climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115049"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0