Power system expansion and renewable integration for drought-resilient electrification in Zambia

Abstract

Zambia’s electricity sector relies heavily on hydropower, making it vulnerable to climate-induced hydrological variability, as seen in recent droughts causing severe load shedding and economic disruption. This study explores pathways to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 in Zambia, assessing the trade-offs between grid stability, climate targets, and equitable access. Using policy-driven scenarios, the analysis incorporates electricity demand growth, hydrological variability, and coal deployment to model system transitions. The results highlight that solar and wind energy are vital for diversifying Zambia’s energy mix and reducing reliance on hydropower. Even in the absence of increased access efforts, at least 2.6 GW of solar power will be required by 2030, while under higher electricity access or low hydropower availability, solar could reach 8.4 GW and wind could exceed 4 GW. Flexible technologies such as biomass, coal, and battery storage are essential to maintaining grid reliability during dry hydropower periods. However, coal poses long-term sustainability concerns. This research adds to the emerging body of knowledge by incorporating off-grid solutions and demonstrating that achieving universal access requires a balanced approach. Strategies combining grid extension with decentralized solutions like solar home systems and mini-grids offer the lowest electrification costs per capita at $111 and $120, respectively, while achieving universal electricity access by 2030. In contrast, grid-dominant strategies are costlier and less inclusive. The paper concludes with policy recommendations, emphasizing the need to modernize infrastructure, support decentralized renewables, and mobilize investment, providing actionable insights for a resilient and inclusive energy transition in Zambia.