Energy Policy最新文献_第6页

Resolving Iran's electricity shortage crisis through integrated energy policy: A system dynamics approach 通过综合能源政策解决伊朗电力短缺危机：系统动力学方法

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126

Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Matin karbasioun , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour

{"title":"Resolving Iran's electricity shortage crisis through integrated energy policy: A system dynamics approach","authors":"Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Matin karbasioun , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD) framework to analyze and resolve Iran's persistent electricity shortage crisis by 2041. Despite substantial fossil fuel reserves and renewable potential, Iran's power system faces chronic supply deficits, reaching up to 18 GW during peak periods, driven by inefficient consumption, subsidy distortions, and aging infrastructure. The proposed model simulates the interactions among demand, supply, fiscal, and environmental variables to evaluate the dynamic effects of five major policy interventions: gradual fuel subsidy removal, consumer equipment efficiency enhancement, carbon taxation, renewable purchase guarantees with financial support, and an integrated mixed policy. Simulation results reveal that isolated measures produce limited outcomes, subsidy reform reduces shortages by only 5.5%, while efficiency improvements and renewable support each eliminate deficits by 2031. The integrated policy, consolidating fiscal revenues through a National Energy Transition Fund (NETF), achieves full shortage elimination by 2027 and creates a 98 TWh surplus by 2041, while cutting CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 43%. Sensitivity tests confirm model robustness under macroeconomic and technological uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that policy coordination amplifies synergies, enabling both energy security and deep decarbonization. The framework provides actionable insights for policymakers in Iran and other fossil-fuel-dependent economies, underscoring the effectiveness of revenue recycling, systemic integration, and early renewable investment in accelerating sustainable energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115126"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From hardhats to algorithms: How AI is redefining labor in China's energy industry 从安全帽到算法：人工智能如何重新定义中国能源行业的劳动力

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115067

Tingting Sun , Rongrong Li , Qiang Wang

{"title":"From hardhats to algorithms: How AI is redefining labor in China's energy industry","authors":"Tingting Sun , Rongrong Li , Qiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping labor markets, with particularly disruptive effects in capital-intensive sectors like energy. This study investigates the impact of AI on employment scale and skill composition in China's energy industry, using panel data from 112 listed firms (2011–2023). We construct a novel “industry–region coordinated exposure index” that combines regional AI development with industry-level task automatability, and embed this within a comparative advantage-based double machine learning (DML) framework to identify causal effects. The research results indicate that AI has a significant overall impact on the workforce, leading to a significant substitution effect among college graduate workers; while the labor market for basic education and postgraduate students shows an upward trend, indicating a clear polarization of skills. Significant heterogeneity exists across industries and regions: fossil fuel companies experienced more drastic workforce reductions, while renewable energy companies demonstrated a complementarity between AI and human capital. Regionally, AI led to workforce shrinkage in eastern provinces, promoted moderate skills upgrading in the central region, and had a limited impact in the west. These findings provide valuable evidence for policy considerations regarding the management of AI-driven workforce transformation. Emerging economies should achieve a balance between technological progress and employment structure driven by AI by strengthening workforce retraining, improving vocational education systems, and promoting coordinated regional development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115067"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Good governance and energy security in OECD countries: The mediating role of environmental policy stringency 经合组织国家的善治与能源安全：环境政策严格性的中介作用

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100

Kanchan Kumar Sen , Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Bidyut Baran Saha

{"title":"Good governance and energy security in OECD countries: The mediating role of environmental policy stringency","authors":"Kanchan Kumar Sen , Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Bidyut Baran Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy security has emerged as a central policy challenge as climate change intensifies alongside rising energy demand and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. For developed economies, ensuring secure energy systems while advancing environmental sustainability requires not only technological progress but also effective governance and regulatory frameworks. Despite this importance, empirical evidence on how governance quality influences energy security through environmental policy remains limited, and existing studies largely rely on traditional econometric approaches that struggle to capture non-linear dynamics. To address these gaps, this study examines the role of good governance in enhancing sustainable energy security in OECD countries, with a particular focus on the mediating role of environmental policy stringency. By applying both machine learning and econometric approaches, the study explored a positive and significant impact of good governance on energy security, highlighting that stronger governance enhances the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of national energy systems. The study also found that environmental policy stringency acts as a key indirect channel through which governance quality enhances energy security. This highlights the importance of strong institutions and well-enforced environmental regulations for improving energy security in developed economies. From a policy perspective, these findings emphasize the value of integrating governance reforms with strong environmental policies. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen energy resilience while promoting decarbonization and sustainable development goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115100"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How social embeddedness shapes rural rooftop solar photovoltaic adoption intention: Evidence from a large-scale behavioral study in China 社会嵌入性如何影响农村屋顶太阳能光伏的采用意向：来自中国大规模行为研究的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115128

Diyi Liu , Ye Yuan , Zhenni Chen , Pengwen Hou

{"title":"How social embeddedness shapes rural rooftop solar photovoltaic adoption intention: Evidence from a large-scale behavioral study in China","authors":"Diyi Liu , Ye Yuan , Zhenni Chen , Pengwen Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how social contexts shape household energy decisions is critical for rural rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) policy. Early research often treats social networks as homogeneous, ignoring individual differences in social network embeddedness. Few studies examine how structural, relational, and network size dimensions moderate adoption through psychological mechanisms. As a result, the social-psychological pathways linking heterogeneity to adoption remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by developing a Comprehensive Social Embeddedness Behavior (CSEB) model, in which Social Network Theory provides the primary framework, and the Theory of Planned Behavior is used to capture key psychological drivers. Using a survey of 12,368 rural households in China, we show that social embeddedness strongly shapes adoption intentions. Structural embeddedness weakens perceived behavioral control, while larger networks enhance adoption by fostering positive attitudes. These findings highlight the role of social heterogeneity in policy design and inform targeted interventions to enhance rooftop solar PV adoption among diverse rural households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115128"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fuelling energy poverty? Evidence on the role of deforestation in developing countries 加剧能源贫困？关于发展中国家森林砍伐作用的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115085

Windbeneti Arnaud Zahonogo , Relwendé Sawadogo

{"title":"Fuelling energy poverty? Evidence on the role of deforestation in developing countries","authors":"Windbeneti Arnaud Zahonogo , Relwendé Sawadogo","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty remains a critical development challenge in low- and middle-income countries, central to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). This study investigates the causal impact of deforestation on energy poverty, focusing on two key dimensions: access to electricity and access to clean cooking fuels. Using a panel of 95 developing countries from 2000 to 2023, we employ robust econometric techniques, including ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares (2SLS), and smoothed instrumental variable quantile regression (SIVQR), to account for endogeneity and distributional heterogeneity. The results consistently show that deforestation significantly worsens energy poverty, particularly in more deprived contexts, by reducing access to clean fuels and electricity. These findings remain robust across alternative deforestation measures and model specifications. Furthermore, income growth, human capital, and carbon efficiency mitigate energy poverty, while population pressure, natural resource dependence, and institutional weaknesses exacerbate it. The findings call for integrated policies that link forest conservation with equitable energy access to support inclusive and sustainable energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115085"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146090601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Electric vehicle adoption and utilization of renewable energy in U.S.: Sensitivity analysis of electricity tariffs and emission pricing 美国电动汽车采用和利用可再生能源：电价和排放定价的敏感性分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115101

A.H. Taheri, M.M. Ardehali

{"title":"Electric vehicle adoption and utilization of renewable energy in U.S.: Sensitivity analysis of electricity tariffs and emission pricing","authors":"A.H. Taheri, M.M. Ardehali","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sustainable future growth of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is dependent on tariffication and emission pricing policies for energy exchange with the grid when renewable energy is to assist with managing electricity load. The aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of time-of-use electricity (TOU) tariff, feed-in tariff (FIT), and CO<sub>2</sub> emission pricing for EV adoption based on utilization of on-grid renewable energy system (RES) for San Diego, Seattle, Boston, and Colorado Springs with different renewable energy potentials in the U.S. Based on optimization of economic cost function for ownership and operation, the optimal on-grid RES capacities to serve as integrated charging infrastructure for battery and hydrogen-fuel cell EVs are determined. The simulation results show that lowering the capital cost of the on-grid RES by 10–20% in combination with offering a more encouraging FIT program could result in desirable support for EV adoption. It is concluded that the current carbon pricing program is ineffective for constraining fossil fuel consumption and promoting the integration of on-grid renewable energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115101"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seizing the green hydrogen opportunity? Comparing strategies for industrial transformation in latecomer countries 抓住绿色氢能源的机遇？后发国家产业转型战略比较

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115111

Fabianna Bacil , Anthony Black , Marina Domingues , Jun Jin , Rasmus Lema , Glen Robbins , Sören Scholvin

{"title":"Seizing the green hydrogen opportunity? Comparing strategies for industrial transformation in latecomer countries","authors":"Fabianna Bacil , Anthony Black , Marina Domingues , Jun Jin , Rasmus Lema , Glen Robbins , Sören Scholvin","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green hydrogen is often promoted as a pathway to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability, yet its implications for industrial development in the Global South remain contested. While it offers potential to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors and foster industrial upgrading, systematic comparative analyses of how emerging economies pursue these opportunities are limited. This paper examines how Brazil, Chile, China, and South Africa approach the emerging green hydrogen window of opportunity to advance industrial transformation. The study combines content analysis of national strategies with contextual data on structural preconditions and policy responses. The analysis reveals divergent strategic orientations, ranging from state-led coordination to market facilitation and export-driven pragmatism, reflecting contrasting institutional capacities, industrial structures, and development priorities. These differences shape the depth and direction of learning and localisation processes. The findings suggest that green hydrogen's transformative potential depends less on the technological promise than on the state's ability to embed it within coherent industrial policy systems, underscoring the need for context-sensitive and adaptive policy designs rather than universal blueprints for green industrialisation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115111"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

CCUS technology diffusion and multi-agent investment behavior under policy incentives 政策激励下CCUS技术扩散与多主体投资行为

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086

Yuanming Li , Bei Li , Shuangxing Liu , Ming Xue , Xingchun Li , Peng Wu

{"title":"CCUS technology diffusion and multi-agent investment behavior under policy incentives","authors":"Yuanming Li , Bei Li , Shuangxing Liu , Ming Xue , Xingchun Li , Peng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, but high costs and uncertainty lead to persistent underinvestment, making coordinated investment between carbon source and sink sectors a potential solution. This study considers carbon source enterprises and carbon sink enterprises as cooperative investors under uncertain oil prices and carbon trading prices, and develops an integrated model that combines a two-player real-options framework with an evolutionary game to analyze multi-agent CCUS investment decisions and technology diffusion under differentiated subsidy policies. The results show that CCUS diffusion exhibits pronounced nonlinear and oscillatory dynamics, with initial conditions critically shaping its pathway: lower initial adoption probabilities delay convergence and amplify fluctuations, especially for capital-intensive coal-fired power plants facing high costs and uncertain returns. The revenue–cost allocation mechanism displays critical threshold effects: there exists an interior range of benefit–cost sharing that supports relatively high and stable diffusion, whereas excessive revenue claims by power plants or overly high cost-sharing, while raising average diffusion, inhibit oil companies’ participation and induce more pronounced long-term volatility. Differentiated subsidy policies also have heterogeneous effects: initial investment subsidies lower entry barriers, accelerate diffusion and dampen volatility; clean electricity price subsidies increase adoption levels but tend to magnify cyclical fluctuations; and CO<sub>2</sub>-EOR tax credits optimize the revenue structure of the sink sector and significantly promote diffusion towards a high and stable state. These findings provide a model-based rationale for designing a graduated incentive subsidy scheme, implementing a dual-threshold revenue–cost mechanism, and prioritising regional CCUS projects with scale effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115086"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temporal stability of consumer preferences for solar Energy: A choice experiment study 消费者太阳能偏好的时间稳定性：一个选择实验研究

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115123

Jamal Mamkhezri

{"title":"Temporal stability of consumer preferences for solar Energy: A choice experiment study","authors":"Jamal Mamkhezri","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I conducted the first long-term repeated cross-sectional analysis with identical choice tasks on willingness to pay (WTP) for solar energy, using discrete choice experiments. Initial data was collected from 404 respondents through mixed-mode surveys in 2017, and 719 online respondents participated in the 2023 wave. I assessed the temporal stability of WTP over a six-year period in New Mexico. My findings, based on mixed logit models in WTP-space with sociodemographic and environmental attitude interactions and scale heterogeneity adjustments, reveal selective temporal instability. Preferences for rooftop solar share, monthly credit banking, and the status quo energy plan exhibited significant magnitude changes, while preferences for Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), water usage in the electricity sector, and smart meter installations remained stable, though the latter had statistically nonsignificant results. Respondents were willing to pay premiums for policies that increase RPS, expand rooftop solar relative to utility-scale solar, prevent utility restrictions on credit banking, reduce water usage by utilities, and enable online access to electricity information. Sociodemographic interactions revealed that political affiliation, age, and graduate education influence RPS preferences, while higher income affects rooftop solar preferences. Stronger environmental attitudes correlated with higher WTP for RPS and water conservation across both waves. However, environmental premiums for rooftop-over-utility-scale solar and smart meters disappeared by 2023, reflecting technology normalization as adoption scaled from niche to mainstream status. Overall, I observe a downward shift in preferences for solar policies after increased RPS policy implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115123"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States 在美国实现净零钢铁制造的技术和政策选择

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124

Francis G.N. Li , Chris Bataille , Seton Stiebert , Taiba Jafari , Olexandr Balyk , James Glynn

{"title":"Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States","authors":"Francis G.N. Li , Chris Bataille , Seton Stiebert , Taiba Jafari , Olexandr Balyk , James Glynn","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores strategies for achieving net zero emissions in the United States steel industry by 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement. The US faces a pivotal moment in the lifecycle of its steel production fleet in the late 2020s, where the opportunity exists to integrate next generation clean steel technologies into the industrial base and become a global market leader in net zero steel by mid-century. Effective policy support at the federal and state levels will be essential for transitioning the most GHG-intensive production methods to cleaner alternatives during this upcoming window of opportunity. Our results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act alone is unlikely to be sufficient to drive a timely transition to net-zero steel production, and that additional demand-side, trade-related, and post-IRA policy measures are required. The paper contextualizes U.S. steel production within global efforts, examining implications for technological change, energy demand, emissions reductions, and international trade using a geospatially detailed techno-economic model of steel production across 137 countries and 1000+ facility locations. Our analysis finds that the US is well positioned to be one of the first countries in the world to achieve net zero steel manufacturing and could make this transition using existing technologies, but the speed of transition and the resulting patterns of investment are sensitive to US policy choices on trade openness to the rest of the world and with close allies. Trade-restrictive pathways, while capable of accelerating domestic decarbonization, also entail higher costs and economic risks that must be carefully managed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 115124"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146185534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0