Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献

PyPSA-Spain: An extension of PyPSA-Eur to model the Spanish energy system PyPSA-Spain: PyPSA-Eur的扩展，用于模拟西班牙能源系统

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101764

Cristobal Gallego-Castillo , Marta Victoria

{"title":"PyPSA-Spain: An extension of PyPSA-Eur to model the Spanish energy system","authors":"Cristobal Gallego-Castillo , Marta Victoria","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work presents PyPSA-Spain, an open-source, high-resolution model of the Spanish energy system, developed as a national-scale fork of PyPSA-Eur. The model integrates detailed national datasets to improve the representation of renewable generation profiles (via quantile-to-quantile transformations) and regional electricity demand, and identifies a spatial resolution of 35–50 nodes as a practical balance between geographical detail and network complexity. Cross-border electricity flows with France and Portugal are represented through a nested modelling approach, using time-dependent electricity prices precomputed with PyPSA-Eur. As a case study, PyPSA-Spain is applied to optimise the 2030 electricity generation mix under decarbonisation targets from Spain’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Results show that improved renewable profiles lead to a more balanced deployment of solar and wind. The model also reveals potential transmission bottlenecks that may constrain the optimal use of renewable resources. PyPSA-Spain fills a methodological gap between European-scale optimisation and national planning, offering a transparent and flexible platform for future energy system analysis in Spain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101764"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the effectiveness of time-of-use pricing design: Provincial evidence from China 评估使用时间定价设计的有效性：来自中国的省级证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101780

Gang Lu , Bo Yuan , Shibo Zhou , Lanyi Wei , Zhaoyuan Wu

{"title":"Assessing the effectiveness of time-of-use pricing design: Provincial evidence from China","authors":"Gang Lu , Bo Yuan , Shibo Zhou , Lanyi Wei , Zhaoyuan Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101780","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101780","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the expansion of renewable energy and evolving electricity consumption patterns, time-of-use (TOU) pricing has become a crucial mechanism for cost transmission and demand-side management. However, the effectiveness of TOU pricing in accurately reflecting system costs across different industries remains unclear. This study constructs a system cost estimation model to evaluate how TOU pricing influences cost pass-through efficiency and user electricity consumption behavior. Empirical analysis using provincial actual data before and after TOU pricing adjustments reveals that the revised TOU scheme significantly improves cost transmission. Sectors such as public services and commercial users demonstrate more pronounced peak-valley load patterns and stronger alignment with price signals, indicating relatively higher electricity consumption flexibility. The new pricing mechanism enhances the correlation between electricity prices and load curves, reducing the discrepancy (F-value) by 14.2 % on average across all industries, with the industrial and financial sectors showing the highest sensitivity to price changes. The study also finds that TOU pricing leads to a re-distribution of electricity costs, with the industrial and financial sectors experiencing a 19.74 % and 41.56 % reduction in total electricity expenditures, respectively, while the transportation sector sees a 13.82 % increase due to electric vehicle charging behaviors. Seasonal differences in TOU effectiveness are also observed, with the most significant cost pass-through improvements occurring in autumn and winter, where industry demand responsiveness is highest. These findings validate the role of TOU pricing in improving cost transmission efficiency and highlight the need for sector-specific adjustments to optimize economic outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101780"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comparative analysis of thermal comfort, energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and visual comfort in a school building utilizing electrochromic and thermochromic windows 使用电致变色窗和热致变色窗的学校建筑的热舒适、能源消耗、污染物排放和视觉舒适的比较分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101772

Sina Lashgari , Mohammad Hossein Jahangir

{"title":"A comparative analysis of thermal comfort, energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and visual comfort in a school building utilizing electrochromic and thermochromic windows","authors":"Sina Lashgari , Mohammad Hossein Jahangir","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates a school building, a structure particularly sensitive to thermal and visual comfort, simulated across three cities in Iran, each characterized by distinct climatic conditions. For each scenario, the thermophysical properties of selected glazing types were modeled under controlled parameters, including transparent and tinted states. The analysis focused on critical performance metrics, including average indoor air temperature during both peak hot and cold periods (August 17th and January 3rd), annual energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and natural daylight availability within a representative classroom. The results reveal that conventional glass outperformed smart glass in heating mode, consistently achieving indoor temperatures closer to the desired setpoint across all three cities. However, in cooling mode, transparent thermochromic windows exhibited superior performance, maintaining average indoor temperatures of approximately 28 °C in the hottest climate and 25 °C in the coldest climate during occupied hours. Compared to buildings equipped with conventional windows, the most substantial reduction in annual natural gas consumption was observed in Yazd, with a decrease of 47.8 %, while the greatest reduction in total annual energy consumption occurred in Tabriz, at 37.2 %. However, these energy savings were accompanied by a decline in thermal comfort, which remains a significant challenge in this study. The highest level of visual comfort during the midday hours was achieved with the thermochromic window in its colored state (approximately 300lux), considering the specific lighting requirements for educational use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101772"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144205627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-resolution energy consumption forecasting of a university campus power plant based on advanced machine learning techniques 基于先进机器学习技术的高校校园电厂高分辨率能耗预测

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101769

Saad A. Alsamraee, Sanjeev Khanna

{"title":"High-resolution energy consumption forecasting of a university campus power plant based on advanced machine learning techniques","authors":"Saad A. Alsamraee, Sanjeev Khanna","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective long-term energy forecasting is essential for efficient management of large institutions like university campuses, yet traditional forecasting methods frequently fall short in capturing complex consumption behaviors. To bridge this gap, this study introduces an advanced machine learning (ML) framework leveraging an extensive hourly energy consumption dataset from the University of Missouri campus over a period of six years from 2017 to 2022. The dataset uniquely integrates energy demand data from the university's Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP) alongside critical environmental parameters, such as air temperature, humidity, wind speed/direction, atmospheric pressure, and solar intensity, capturing distinctive consumption patterns across pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Several ML algorithms – Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) – were rigorously trained, validated, and benchmarked. The XGBoost model evidently emerged as superior, achieving impressive forecasting accuracy with MAE of 0.8680, RMSE of 1.2078, MAPE of 3.12 %, and R<sup>2</sup> of 0.94. Additionally, the model's probabilistic forecasts were validated using the negative log likelihood (NLL = 1.5924), confirming robust performance and reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were employed to interpret the model predictions, highlighting the critical roles of air temperature, daily temporal cycles, and seasonal factors in driving energy usage. Finally, during the deployment phase, the optimal model was employed to forecast energy demand for the full year 2023—the primary objective of this study—exhibiting high robustness through close adherence to actual demand patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101769"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144205625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fuel-stacking behaviour among households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: The role of experience 坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆家庭的燃料堆积行为：经验的作用

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101773

Matilda Stanslaus Ntiyakunze , Jesper Stage

引用次数: 0

China's carbon emission prediction from the perspective of shared socioeconomic pathways and machine learning 共享社会经济路径与机器学习视角下的中国碳排放预测

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101778

Chunmei Liu , Yuan Zhang

{"title":"China's carbon emission prediction from the perspective of shared socioeconomic pathways and machine learning","authors":"Chunmei Liu , Yuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101778","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101778","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The adverse effects of carbon emissions have garnered significant attention from the international community. Against this backdrop, China has set the dual carbon target and taken concrete actions to achieve it. This study integrates Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with machine-learning methodologies to project China's carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060 under different scenarios. In addition, sensitivity analysis is used to test the robustness of prediction result and analyze the importance of different influencing factors under the optimal carbon emission scenario. The results indicate that: (1) Under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP4 scenarios, carbon emissions peak in 2025 at 10.625, 10.937, and 10.761 billion tons, respectively. For SSP3 and SSP5, the peaks occur around 2030, reaching 11.466 and 12.220 billion tons, respectively. (2) Under SSP1 and SSP4 scenarios, China can attain carbon neutrality as planned. However, under the SSP2 scenario, the achievement of carbon neutrality hinges on the development and application of negative carbon emission technologies. (3) Under the SSP1 scenario, China exhibits the lowest per capita carbon emission peak and cumulative carbon emissions, at 7.36 tons and 210.052 billion tons, respectively. (4) Among the scenarios, SSP1 emerges as the optimal scenario considering carbon peak, carbon neutrality, per capita carbon emissions and cumulative carbon emissions. (5) Under a 10 % fluctuation in influencing factors, the prediction results under SSP1 remain robust. Energy system reform and carbon-negative technologies are essential for China under it. Based on the above analysis, this study proposes the following mainly three aspects to promote the achievement of China's dual carbon goals: improving the efficiency of fossil energy utilization, facilitating the expansion of clean energy generation and the corresponding transformation of the power system, and accelerating innovation and application of negative emissions technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101778"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144189489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating SDG 8: Carbon-adjusted trade and cross-border capital movements through economic Co-movements 推动可持续发展目标8：通过经济协同运动调整碳排放的贸易和跨境资本流动

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101779

Salim Khan , Hongping Yuan , Qi Xu , Li Zhang

{"title":"Navigating SDG 8: Carbon-adjusted trade and cross-border capital movements through economic Co-movements","authors":"Salim Khan , Hongping Yuan , Qi Xu , Li Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101779","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study systematically explores the role of Cross-Border Capital Flows (CBCM) in the relationship between Economic Co-movement (ECM), and trade harmonization in Africa. Based on bilateral panel data from 2008 to 2022, the Prais-Winsten Regression, Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) model and System Generalized Moment (Sys-GMM) method are used to address the methodological and data processing limitations of existing studies. The results show that: (i) CBCM have a positive impact on trade harmonization adjusted for carbon emissions, indicating that CBCM can promote trade integration among African countries; (ii) ECM has a negative impact on trade harmonization; (iii) CBCM has the potential to mitigate the adverse impact of ECM on trade harmonization. By promoting the capital flows, countries can effectively cope with the challenges brought by ECM and accelerate the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG-8); (iv) The study further identifies the threshold effect of CBCM in affecting the relationship between ECM and trade harmonization, enriching the existing literature; (v) At the same time, the dynamic causal relationship between ECM, CBCM and trade harmonization is established. The above findings are of great reference value to policymakers, helping to formulate effective strategies to promote carbon-adjusted trade integration and sustainable regional growth, and promote the realization of SDG-8.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101779"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Net-zero emissions in the energy-intensive industrial sector by 2040: Insights from a country with ambitious national renewable policies 到2040年能源密集型工业部门的净零排放：来自雄心勃勃的国家可再生能源政策的国家的见解

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101748

Marcus Otti , Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard

{"title":"Net-zero emissions in the energy-intensive industrial sector by 2040: Insights from a country with ambitious national renewable policies","authors":"Marcus Otti , Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study identifies the cost-optimal transition technologies and energy carrier choices for achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 in Austria’s energy-intensive industrial sectors: iron and steel, pulp and paper, and cement. We propose a novel techno-economic optimization model that calculates bottom-up investment decisions at the industrial site level while integrating key principles of energy system modeling. These include minimizing total system costs, maintaining energy balance constraints, and accounting for the technical characteristics of transition technologies. The analysis focuses on the impact of three national policies, such as the targeted decarbonization of the Austrian power and gas sectors, and the role of carbon capture technologies, which are widely and controversially debated. The results emphasize the importance of biomethane, electrification, and efficiency measures while underscoring the pivotal role of national targets supporting these renewable energy carriers in achieving net-zero emissions. Additionally, the findings underline the necessity of a policy framework that addresses carbon management and navigates the trade-offs between zero-emission hydrogen technologies and carbon capture solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101748"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Planning off-grid rural electrification with MicroGridsPy: The case of Dugub, Nigeria 利用MicroGridsPy规划离网农村电气化：尼日利亚Dugub的案例

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101775

Cyril Onyilokwu Agbo , Alessandro Onori , Nicolo Stevanato , Riccardo Mereu , Cosmas U. Ogbuka , Mkpamdi N. Eke , Chika O. Ujah

{"title":"Planning off-grid rural electrification with MicroGridsPy: The case of Dugub, Nigeria","authors":"Cyril Onyilokwu Agbo , Alessandro Onori , Nicolo Stevanato , Riccardo Mereu , Cosmas U. Ogbuka , Mkpamdi N. Eke , Chika O. Ujah","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural electrification plays a crucial role in improving the socioeconomic conditions of underserved communities by enabling extended productive hours, enhancing access to education, and empowering women. However, conventional grid extension is often economically unfeasible for remote areas due to challenging terrain, dispersed populations, and low demand. As a result, alternative solutions such as solar photovoltaic (PV) mini-grids are gaining attention. This study investigates the most cost-effective and sustainable approach to off-grid rural electrification using solar PV-based mini-grids in Dugub, a rural farming community in northeastern Nigeria. Specifically, it examines different demand scenarios and system configurations to identify the optimal solution that minimizes costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The study utilizes the MicroGridsPy optimization model to simulate and analyze energy usage patterns and mini-grid system performance under constant and evolving demand scenarios. Key parameters such as installed capacity, net present cost (NPC), and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) were evaluated across different configurations involving solar PV, batteries, and diesel generators. Results indicate that a hybrid system consisting of solar PV with battery storage and a backup generator, incorporating capacity expansion over time, is the most cost-effective option. The optimal scenario achieved a renewable energy penetration of 94.7 %, with the generator contributing less than 6 % of the total energy supply. The findings demonstrated that solar-based mini-grids offer a viable solution for rural electrification when appropriately sized. The study highlights the importance of supportive policies, capacity planning, and stakeholder engagement in ensuring long-term sustainability and socioeconomic development in rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101775"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of artificial intelligence adoption and financial accessibility on energy sustainability 人工智能的采用和金融可及性对能源可持续性的影响

IF 7.9 2区工程技术

Energy Strategy Reviews Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101744

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

引用次数: 0