Overview of analysis and evaluation models for China's nuclear energy development

Abstract

Systematic analysis and evaluation of nuclear energy development serves as a cornerstone in shaping national nuclear science and technology strategies. This study undertakes a comparative investigation of global nuclear energy modeling paradigms, aiming to elucidate methodological strengths and limitations in predicting China's nuclear energy trajectory under decarbonization imperatives. Through meta-analysis of international research, we critically examine foundational data architectures and analytical frameworks across three predominant model categories: system optimization models, integrated assessment methodologies, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between domestic and international modeling systems, particularly in multi-sector data integration, temporal resolution precision, and policy scenario sophistication. The research further identifies critical challenges confronting China's nuclear energy modeling ecosystem, including the need for indigenous model architecture development, cross-sectoral interface standardization, dynamic data infrastructure enhancement, and advanced scenario simulation capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated optimization framework encompassing institutional coordination mechanisms, technical standardization protocols, and next-generation modeling innovations. This framework is designed to strengthen the scientific rigor of China's nuclear energy planning processes while establishing a replicable methodological reference for domestic researchers. By bridging existing gaps in predictive accuracy and policy relevance, the study provides actionable insights for evidence-based nuclear energy governance under China's dual-carbon transition, ultimately contributing to the development of robust, context-specific analytical tools for sustainable energy system transformation.