中国核能发展分析与评价模型综述

IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Hongzhang Cheng , Xuan Ye , Xiaoguang Liu , Hongyu Zhang , Gangyang Zheng , Bo Yang , Tianpeng Wang , Tao Ma , Qi Shi , Wei Xiong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对核能发展的系统分析和评价是制定国家核科技战略的基石。本研究对全球核能建模范式进行了比较研究,旨在阐明在脱碳要求下预测中国核能轨迹的方法优势和局限性。通过对国际研究的荟萃分析,我们严格审查了三个主要模型类别的基础数据架构和分析框架:系统优化模型、综合评估方法和可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型。我们的研究结果揭示了国内和国际建模系统之间的巨大差异,特别是在多部门数据集成、时间分辨率精度和政策情景复杂性方面。该研究进一步确定了中国核能建模生态系统面临的关键挑战,包括对本土模型架构开发、跨部门接口标准化、动态数据基础设施增强和先进场景模拟能力的需求。为了应对这些挑战,我们提出了一个集成的优化框架,包括机构协调机制、技术标准化协议和下一代建模创新。该框架旨在加强中国核能规划过程的科学严谨性,同时为国内研究人员建立可复制的方法参考。通过弥合预测准确性和政策相关性方面的现有差距,本研究为中国双碳转型下的循证核能治理提供了可操作的见解,最终有助于开发强大的、针对具体情况的可持续能源系统转型分析工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Overview of analysis and evaluation models for China's nuclear energy development
Systematic analysis and evaluation of nuclear energy development serves as a cornerstone in shaping national nuclear science and technology strategies. This study undertakes a comparative investigation of global nuclear energy modeling paradigms, aiming to elucidate methodological strengths and limitations in predicting China's nuclear energy trajectory under decarbonization imperatives. Through meta-analysis of international research, we critically examine foundational data architectures and analytical frameworks across three predominant model categories: system optimization models, integrated assessment methodologies, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between domestic and international modeling systems, particularly in multi-sector data integration, temporal resolution precision, and policy scenario sophistication. The research further identifies critical challenges confronting China's nuclear energy modeling ecosystem, including the need for indigenous model architecture development, cross-sectoral interface standardization, dynamic data infrastructure enhancement, and advanced scenario simulation capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated optimization framework encompassing institutional coordination mechanisms, technical standardization protocols, and next-generation modeling innovations. This framework is designed to strengthen the scientific rigor of China's nuclear energy planning processes while establishing a replicable methodological reference for domestic researchers. By bridging existing gaps in predictive accuracy and policy relevance, the study provides actionable insights for evidence-based nuclear energy governance under China's dual-carbon transition, ultimately contributing to the development of robust, context-specific analytical tools for sustainable energy system transformation.
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来源期刊
Energy Strategy Reviews
Energy Strategy Reviews Energy-Energy (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
12.80
自引率
4.90%
发文量
167
审稿时长
40 weeks
期刊介绍: Energy Strategy Reviews is a gold open access journal that provides authoritative content on strategic decision-making and vision-sharing related to society''s energy needs. Energy Strategy Reviews publishes: • Analyses • Methodologies • Case Studies • Reviews And by invitation: • Report Reviews • Viewpoints
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