Exploring the evolution of long-term electricity demand and load curves in emerging economies: A case study of Indonesia's energy transition

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of future electricity demand is crucial for effective power sector planning. However, such forecasting is sensitive to key variables influenced by high degree of uncertainty. While regression-based models are widely used, they often overlook new electrification potentials and intra-year dynamics. This study addresses these gaps by examining long-term electricity demand for emerging economies, using Indonesia as a case study. We implement an end-use approach to explore how socio-economic factors influence energy consumption across various end-uses under different scenarios. We project various energy intensity pathways for each end-use based on historical data from relevant developed countries, reflecting improvements in efficiency and changes in energy use patterns over time. Our findings indicate that Indonesia's energy demand could increase by 2.1–3.6 times between 2022 and 2060, while electricity demand may rise by 3.9–8.7 times. The load's coefficient of variation (CV) is projected to increase from 12.8 % in 2022 to 13.2–14.2 % in 2060, depending on the scenario. Additionally, the load factor is expected to decrease from 81 % in 2022 to approximately 78 % in 2060 across all scenarios. This study provides valuable insights into the wide range of possible electricity demand projections and load curves in emerging economies undergoing an energy transition to a highly electrified energy system.