{"title":"Available Time to Plant and Harvest Peanuts","authors":"T. Griffin, J. Ward","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3089856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3089856","url":null,"abstract":"Peanut farmers’ acreage allocation and equipment management decisions remain heavily dependent upon weather uncertainty. The number of days suitable for fieldwork (DSFW) were evaluated during key production times for 11 peanut-producing states. The objectives of this analysis were to define most active dates for peanut planting and harvest field activities, to estimate DSFW occurring within the most active date ranges for each peanut producing state, and to analyze these DSFW data for trends over time. Crop progress data reflects when producers are most likely to engage in field work not necessarily the most agronomically advantageous time. Weekly USDA NASS data from 1995 to 2018 for planting and from 1995 to 2017 for harvest were analyzed to develop a probability distribution. Comparing the middle of the distribution, the 50th percentile, shows that North Carolina had the fewest days available for planting (16.4 days) while Arkansas has the most days for planting (34.0 days). Georgia, for comparison, had 23.0 days for planting. For harvest at the 50th percentile, Arkansas has one of the fewest days available for harvest (23.0 days) and South Carolina has the most available (40.0 days). Georgia had 34.0 days available for harvest. These results are useful for farmers, practitioners, and researchers for decision making including determining the number of acres that can be planted and/or harvested in a given year based on weather risk. Sizing equipment to complete field work only for the maximum DSFW leaves no contingency for poor field conditions or equipment failure. These results are important for farm decision makers to make machinery selection and acreage allocation decisions. As an added benefit of this paper, the R programming code used to access and develop graphs have been made available for readers to use in their own research.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121869173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unit Costs and Income From Selected Products in 2017 – Research Results in the Agrokoszty System","authors":"A. Skarżyńska","doi":"10.30858/ZER/109928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30858/ZER/109928","url":null,"abstract":"In 2013, the research covered: winter wheat, winter rye, spring barley, winter rape and live pigs. Results of activities were analysed at farms running small-, medium- and large-scale production. Although the production volume, recognised as small, medium and large, is of relative nature, the research results provide a premise for the selection of production scale able to ensure a fairly high production efficiency. Analysis in groups of farms, selected according to production scale, showed that production profitability (ratio of production value to direct costs and overheads in total) at large scale was always higher than at small scale. The advantage of large scale was: for winter wheat – 6.4 pp, winter rye – 3.6 pp, spring barley – 6.9 pp, winter rape – 11.3 pp, and live pigs – 16.7 pp. The positive effect of scale impact on economic results is evident. Above all, labour-intensity of production dropped along with an increase in scale, which had a positive impact on the level of income per 1 hour of own labour and, consequently, its degree of coverage. In case of crop production activity, farmer’s labour inputs were covered in all scale ranges, but at significantly higher level at large and medium scale than at small scale. In 2013, production of live pigs in most of the farms from the research sample was unprofitable, which means that revenues failed to fully cover the production costs. However, in each group there were farms where live pigs were profitable, the highest share of such farms was noted at large scale of pigs for fattening – 47%, against 17% at medium scale and 9% at small scale of production.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115432648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Soaring Global Food Commodity Prices: Evidence of Long Memory Process","authors":"I. Onour, B. Sergi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3049049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3049049","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyze volatility persistence in global prices of wheat, rice and corn using monthly price data for two sample periods, before and after the shock on global food commodity markets on November 2007. Our findings show evidence of structural change in price trend in the post-shock period indicated by upward shift in the mean of the commodity series. Evidence of mean shift imply permanent demand side effects on price levels of these commodities. The result of changing price swings (covariance non-stationary) invalidate constant variance option-based pricing of future contracts on these commodities. Furthermore, given price series are covariance non-stationary and returning to the series long term trend “attractor” may take long time, forecast of future trend require non-standard statistical tools.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125369235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting of Common Paddy Prices in India","authors":"A. Darekar, A. Reddy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3064080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3064080","url":null,"abstract":"Paddy is an important food crop in India and second most in the world. About 35% of net cropped area under paddy and about 50% of the farmers cultivate paddy every year. Farmer’s decision making on acreage under paddy depends on the future prices to be realized during harvest period. Hence this paper presents a methodology to forecast prices during harvest period and applied the method to forecast for the kharif 2017-18. The time series data on monthly average prices of paddy from January, 2006 to December, 2016 collected from AGMARK was used. ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model was employed to predict the future prices of paddy. Model parameters were estimated using the R programming software. The performance of fitted model was examined by computing various measures of goodness of fit viz., AIC, BIC and MAPE. The ARIMA model was the most representative model for the price forecast of paddy in overall India. In kharif season the paddy is harvested during September – November. The forecast shows that market prices of paddy, would be ruling in the range of Rs. 1,600 – 2,200 per quintal in kharif harvesting season, 2017-18.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129174931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Land Use Projections for Southern Non-Black-Earth Regions of Russia: Coping with Uncertainty","authors":"N. Svetlov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3240669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3240669","url":null,"abstract":"To address the question whether the abundancy of agricultural land in regions of Russia can favour growth of their crop production in a long run, a simulation framework is developed that is robust to a high level of uncertainty. Its core is a variety of a partial equilibrium model with a fully specified demand function and an equilibrium point as the only datum about the supply function. Procedures of systems analysis are applied to reduce the uncertainty and to measure its harm. As a result, reliable conclusions are obtained from 1000 random trials. The uncertain parameters of the model are ranked on urgency of their more accurate estimations for the purpose of obtaining a more precise projection. Among 11 uncertain parameters of the model, only four significantly affect incremental land use. Simulations suggest that combining protectionism with monetary inflows in R&D allows moderate growth of the cultivated land area. So, the hypothetical congestion effect of land abundancy is ruled out.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124626005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predicting Market Price of Soybean in Major India Studies Through ARIMA Model","authors":"A. Darekar, A. Reddy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3089035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3089035","url":null,"abstract":"Soybean (Glycine max) is as an oilseed crop with inadvertent importance. It is a good source of protein both for the human beings and livestock including pieces. The production and demand for soybean have been many traits increased in India during the last decade resolving in its winder adoption among farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat. This necessitates the need for reliable information on futures prices for soybean. Therefore, the present study was undertaken by collecting monthly prices of soybean in major soybean states of India for a period of 11 years (January 2006 to December 2016) by using ARIMA (Box-Jenkins model) so as to predict the future prices of soybean.The performance of fitted model was examined by computing various measures of goodness of fit viz., AIC, SBC and MAPE. ARIMA was the most representative model for the price forecast of soybean among states and the country as a while. The developed model can be used as a policy instrument for the farmers, processors and traders. The harvest of crop during September to October. The production and market prices of soybean, would be ruling in the range of INR 2,6000-3,6000 per tonne in kharif harvesting season, 2017-18. Average price of soybean ruled at INR 2, 6930 per tonne, compared to its MSP at INR 2,7750 per tonne during the last year. INR may recover for the coming kharif season. Since India is the largest importer of edible oils, there in a need to encourage soybean cultivation where ever climate is suitable for its cultivation.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"185 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132613322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ward Thomas and Sons, Inc","authors":"R. Carraway","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2975066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2975066","url":null,"abstract":"An MBA student attempts to use linear programming to help his family reduce feeding costs on their dairy farm. The objectives of the case include practice at formulating linear-programming problems (in particular, deciding what level of detail is appropriate) and recognizing that insights gained from building linear-programming models often exceed the original intent. \u0000Excerpt \u0000UVA-QA-0378 \u0000Rev. Feb., 4, 2013 \u0000WARD THOMAS AND SONS, INC. \u0000Another beautiful August day in 1987 was drawing to a close as Brian Thomas reviewed the data he had collected on milk production at Ward Thomas and Sons, Inc. (WT&S). Caught in the profitability squeeze affecting the dairy industry nationwide, WT&S had suffered through several years of minimal or negative profit from its milking operations. Thomas, an MBA student, was anxious to see if he could help his family by using his recently acquired knowledge of linear programming to reduce the cost of feeding the dairy herd, thereby improving the farm's competitive position. \u0000The Dairy Industry \u0000The decade of the 1980s had not been kind to the dairy industry as it struggled through a period of declining profitability. Although farmers had become more productive (average annual milk production per cow had increased from 7,761 lb. in 1940 to 15,528 lb. in 1987), people had become more health conscious. As a result, per capita consumption of milk and milk-related products had remained constant or, in some cases, declined. In addition, the price of dairy products had not kept pace with inflation, and farm profit margins had narrowed considerably. Federal milk-subsidy programs had been cut back, lowering the level of payments to farmers. In the mid-1980s, the Department of Agriculture had even implemented a temporary program that paid farmers to sell entire herds and discontinue dairy farming in an effort to lower the total supply of milk. \u0000. . .","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123581586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stumbling Agriculture in Bihar: Linkages with Institutional Mechanism and Public Investment","authors":"Ranjit Kumar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3054330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3054330","url":null,"abstract":"The agriculture in Bihar is still grappled with low investment and low input agriculture and therefore besides low productivity, growth in production and productivity of most of the major crops are quite low as compared to other developed states. Though agriculture contributes more than 40 per cent to state domestic product, but it is not attracting public investment in consonance with the demand and output growth. Therefore, successful development of this economically fragile region, having more than 35 per cent population below poverty line, requires new and improved approaches, particularly for agricultural intensification. The presently study is an attempt to examine the status and trend of utilization and expansion various critical agricultural inputs in Bihar in comparison to other developed states. The production function analysis has also been done for the period of 1990-2003, in value of output from agriculture has been considered as dependent variable, while gross cropped area, gross irrigated area, fertilizer consumption, institutional agricultural credit and public expenditure on agriculture were taken as explanatory variables. The results raise the tantalizing possibility that better emphasis on irrigation expansion, use of higher dose of chemical fertilizer backed with greater public investment in agriculture in these fragile regions could actually offer a “win-win” strategy for addressing productivity and poverty problems from the region.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121159595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal Tariffs with Smuggling: A Spatial Analysis of Nigerian Rice Policy Options","authors":"Michael E. Johnson, P. Dorosh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2741910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2741910","url":null,"abstract":"Utilizing a spatial multi-market model for rice in Nigeria that explicitly takes into account the potential for smuggling, in this paper we analyze the welfare implications of alternative rice tariff rates given the governmentâs goals of spurring domestic production and reducing imports. Because smuggling occurs through the diversion of imports from Lagos, the official port of entry in the south, to the north, our modeling framework also captures the spatial effects of higher tariffs on changes in rural and urban prices, production and consumption, the flow of trade in rice, and welfare across different parts of the country. Results show that tariff rates that exceed about 40 percent introduce some smuggling of rice through the north when smuggling becomes more profitable than importing through official channels in the south. It is also at this tipping point that government tariff revenues are maximized. At higher tariff rates with smuggling, the south experiences greater welfare losses, especially in urban areas.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"14 13","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133076852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Recurrence Plots of Geolocated Time Series from Satellite Maps of NOAA STAR Vegetation Health Index","authors":"Amelia Carolina Sparavigna, R. Marazzato","doi":"10.18483/IJSCI.877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18483/IJSCI.877","url":null,"abstract":"Several information services, such as the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, produces and distributes maps elaborated from satellite images, which display data about vegetation indices. Using the time-series concerning some specific geographical positions, which we can obtain from the available maps, several analyses are possible. Here we propose the use of recurrence plots. We will show examples based on the data corresponding to six small areas, geolocated in Italy, of the NOAA STAR Vegetation Health Index (VHI). It is an index used for monitoring and forecasting the status of vegetation. The recurrence plots we obtained could be helpful for discriminating different situations.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"5 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120916272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}