Predicting Market Price of Soybean in Major India Studies Through ARIMA Model

Abstract

Soybean (Glycine max) is as an oilseed crop with inadvertent importance. It is a good source of protein both for the human beings and livestock including pieces. The production and demand for soybean have been many traits increased in India during the last decade resolving in its winder adoption among farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat. This necessitates the need for reliable information on futures prices for soybean. Therefore, the present study was undertaken by collecting monthly prices of soybean in major soybean states of India for a period of 11 years (January 2006 to December 2016) by using ARIMA (Box-Jenkins model) so as to predict the future prices of soybean.The performance of fitted model was examined by computing various measures of goodness of fit viz., AIC, SBC and MAPE. ARIMA was the most representative model for the price forecast of soybean among states and the country as a while. The developed model can be used as a policy instrument for the farmers, processors and traders. The harvest of crop during September to October. The production and market prices of soybean, would be ruling in the range of INR 2,6000-3,6000 per tonne in kharif harvesting season, 2017-18. Average price of soybean ruled at INR 2, 6930 per tonne, compared to its MSP at INR 2,7750 per tonne during the last year. INR may recover for the coming kharif season. Since India is the largest importer of edible oils, there in a need to encourage soybean cultivation where ever climate is suitable for its cultivation.