ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Price Transmission in Cotton Futures Market: Evidence from Three Countries","authors":"Amrinder Singh, T. Soni","doi":"10.3390/jrfm14090444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14090444","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the price transmission between cotton prices in U.S., Indian, and Chinese futures markets. We focus on studying the long-run price movements using cointegration and alternate causality tests. The empirical results indicate the following: (a) the U.S. cotton futures market continues to be the most dominant market, and it leads price changes in India and China; (b) the cotton prices in India also impacts the cotton prices in China as we report a unidirectional relationship flowing from India to China; (c) there is duality of direction of price transmission for U.S. and Chinese commodity markets as we document bi-directional causality between U.S. to Chinese cotton futures for the entire period and uni-directional causality from U.S. to Chinese markets for the two sub-periods; (d) the long-term relationship between the three markets has seen a significant shift as documented by the absence of cointegration which may be due to changes in government policy, especially in India and China specifically after 2014. Overall, results provide support for further reforms especially for Indian and Chinese commodity exchanges so that they can play a vital role in the price discovery process especially for commodities that are largely produced or consumed in these economies.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128919697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Multinomial Choice Models with Unobserved Choice Sets","authors":"Zhentong Lu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3503554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3503554","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper proposes a new approach to estimating multinomial choice models when each consumer’s actual choice set is unobservable but could be bounded by two known sets, i.e., the largest and smallest possible choice sets. The bounds on choice set, combined with a monotonicity property derived from utility maximization, imply a system of inequality restrictions on observed choice probabilities that could be used to identify and estimate the model. A key insight is that the identification of random utility model can be achieved without exact information on consumers’ choice sets, which generalizes the identification result of the standard multinomial choice model. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated via a range of Monte Carlo experiments as well as an empirical application to consumer demand for potato chips using household scanner data.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"313 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121831406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measurement of collusion in open ascending price auctions in agricultural commodity markets","authors":"Dipankar Das, Sanjeev Kapoor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3736887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3736887","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives a method of measuring the degree of collusion among the bidders in an open ascending repetitive price auction in agricultural commodity markets in India. This paper first derives the bidders’ behaviour’s theoretical structure and then a measure of collusion formation. Finally, the degree of the cartel has been computed using time series wholesale price data of potato and onion crops. This research’s findings are helpful for the study of the link between the supply of the agriculture commodity and the degree of collusion. Using the proposed method in this research, if the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) measures cartel for each market and publish periodically, it will help farmers choose the right market to sell the produce. The farmers would select the market where the degree of collusion is relatively lower. Identifying different small cartel groups at different times with respective to the supply of the agriculture commodity would help avoid the incidence of distress selling by farmers, which is the main hindrance in developing the farming community in India. JEL Classification: C7,D44,L1,L4,Q1","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128082054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Model of Collusion Formation and Measurement in the Open Ascending Bid Auctions in Agricultural Commodity Markets","authors":"Dipankar Das","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3736906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3736906","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives a method of measuring the degree of collusion among the bidders in agricultural commodity markets in India and derives the distribution of the change in equilibrium bid prices with respect to time in open ascending price auction when the cartel is there. The important assumption is the bidding is repetitive with a set of common bidders. The theory has been derived based on the behavior of the wholesale market of agricultural commodities in India. This means the paper is based on full information model in the collusion formation. The paper first derives the theoretical structure of the bidders' behavior and thereafter derives a measure of collusion formation.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131267655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future of the Rural Economy in the United States","authors":"Sanchari Ghosh, N. Woodson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3840499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3840499","url":null,"abstract":"Rural economies in the United States are facing a downward spiral with job losses and failure to acquire skills required in this age of automation. A multitude of factors have prevented rural communities to keep up with the mainstream American economy leading to outmigration and rising debt levels.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128097557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adopting Local Languages as Official Languages: Effect on Women and Rural Individuals’ Labor Force in Burkina Faso","authors":"S. Yaméogo","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2020.42.2.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2020.42.2.31","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of the use of the main local languages in Burkina Faso (Moore, Dioula, Fulfulde) on labor force participation. Using Ethnologue language data, I compute the relative language distance reduction index, after which I use a probit/logit model and instrumental variable approach to account for language use policy endogeneity. This study finds that the use of the Moore language increases the likelihood of labor force participation by 36 percent, with a strong impact on women at 59 percent, nine times higher than men, and 38.3 percent for rural individuals, five times higher than individuals living in urban areas. The Dioula language exhibits comparable trends, while Fulfulde has a negative impact on individuals. The study recommends the use of local language(s) as official language(s) to improve labor force participation. However, a bilingual approach combining local and international language(s) will be of use to account for globalization and international competitiveness. The findings here may be of use to researchers and policymakers as part of their effort to increase the labor force participation rates of women and rural individuals. Moreover, this research has significant implications with regard to the implementation of language use policies in a variety of postcolonial language contexts.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134618822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demand Analysis with Many Prices","authors":"V. Chernozhukov, J. Hausman, Whitney Newey","doi":"10.1920/wp.cem.2019.5919","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.cem.2019.5919","url":null,"abstract":"From its inception, demand estimation has faced the problem of \"many prices.\" This paper provides estimators of average demand and associated bounds on exact consumer surplus when there are many prices in cross-section or panel data. For cross-section data we provide a debiased machine learner of consumer surplus bounds that allows for general heterogeneity and solves the \"zeros problem\" of demand. For panel data we provide bias corrected, ridge regularized estimators of average coefficients and consumer surplus bounds. In scanner data we find smaller panel elasticities than cross-section and that soda price increases are regressive.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117044666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting Milk Prices With VAR Models – Application to Farm Gate Price in Finland","authors":"Leena Kalliovirta, O. Niskanen, A. Heikkilä","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3473862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3473862","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of our study is to analyze the associations between Finnish and global milk markets and use the results to predict the Finnish milk price. We develop a theoretical framework of the factors affecting the milk price in Finland and test the predictive power within Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. We employ the monthly farm gate price of milk, the quantity of milk produced, and other available monthly variables that depict the global milk markets from January 2007 to December 2016. We forecast their values for January 2017–August 2019 using only the observations from the estimation period. Thus, we make 1-step to 32-steps forecasts and measure the accuracy of forecasts with the MSPE. The greatest forecasting power for the milk price in Finland are the VAR models with combination of three or four variables: the lagged price of milk in Finland, the price of oil, the world feed price, and the quantity of milk produced. We also build forecasts where the observed series of oil future from January 2017 until August 2019 replace the forecasted prices of the oil. For the first 18 months, the oil future prices improve the forecasts, but then the both schemes forecast equally well.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116770875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Herding through Uncertainties – Regional Perspectives. Exploring the Interfaces of Pastoralists and Uncertainty. Results from a Literature Review","authors":"M. Nori","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3457235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457235","url":null,"abstract":"This paper has been written as a background review for the European Research Council-funded PASTRES project (Pastoralism, Uncertainty, Resilience: Global Lessons from the Margins, pastres.org). Lessons from pastoralists, we argue, may help others working in other domains to develop more effective responses to uncertain contexts. Following prof. Scoones’ papers What is uncertainty and why does it matter?, this is one of two papers developed with a view to analyse and reflect on the interfaces and interrelationships between pastoral societies, the uncertainties that embed their livelihoods, and the related coping/adaptive principles, strategies, and practices. \u0000 \u0000Through a structured review and a meta-analysis of existing literature, the environmental, market, and governance dimensions characterizing uncertainty for pastoralists are explored in six different settings: a) Central and southern Asia, with specific references to the Tibetan plateau in China and to Indian pastoralists; b) the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean, with a focus on Morocco in the Maghreb-Mashreq region and a wider perspective on pastoralism in Mediterranean Europe; c) the eastern and western flanks of Sub-Saharan Africa drylands, with a specific focus on the Fulani and Borana pastoral groups inhabiting these regions. \u0000 \u0000This paper provides an understanding of the constantly changing uncertainty frameworks characterising the livelihoods of pastoralists inhabiting different geographical areas of the globe.Very diverse and contrasting pastoral settings present relevant similarities and convergences when facing evolving uncertainty scenarios. The ecological uncertainties that inform pastoral strategies get reconfigured as connections and networks extend and the market and governance dimensions hold growing roles in determining the livelihoods of pastoral communities. The paper concludes by indicating potential ways we could learn from pastoralists, as part of a wider conversation about embracing uncertainties to meet the challenges of our turbulent world. This endeavour is complemented by another paper that explores the principles, strategies, and practices pastoral communities adopt with a view to cope and adapt to surrounding and embedding insecurities.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130997100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Off-Farm Participation, Agricultural Production and Farmers’ Welfare in Tanzania and Uganda","authors":"B. Kinuthia, A. Araar, L. N. Lalampaa, Stephene Maende, Faith Mariera","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3344558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3344558","url":null,"abstract":"Panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for Tanzania and Uganda were analyzed to investigate the impact of off-farm participation on agricultural production and farmers’ welfare. Using strategies ranging from simple least squares to a dynamic panel model, we demonstrated how each of the intermediate models, such as the random effects Tobit model, could tackle censoring bias. Our results reveal that off-farm participation had a negative impact on agricultural production in both countries, though the impact was positive on welfare for Tanzania only. Policy makers should consider the complexities surrounding the formulation of pro-agriculture and pro-welfare policies aimed at producing desirable outcomes from off-farm participation. In that effort, policies that minimize the trade-off between agricultural production and off-farm participation and which enhance positive welfare effects are vital.","PeriodicalId":111133,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Agricultural Economics (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134315091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}