种植和收获花生的有效时间

T. Griffin, J. Ward
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引用次数: 2

摘要

花生种植者的种植面积分配和设备管理决策仍然严重依赖于天气的不确定性。对11个花生产区关键生产时期适宜田间工作天数(DSFW)进行了评价。本分析的目的是确定花生种植和收获活动最活跃的日期,估计在每个花生生产州最活跃的日期范围内发生的DSFW,并分析这些DSFW数据随时间的趋势。作物进展数据反映的是生产者最有可能从事田间工作的时间,而不一定是农艺上最有利的时间。分析了1995年至2018年美国农业部国家农业统计局(USDA NASS)每周的种植数据和1995年至2017年的收获数据,以得出概率分布。比较分布的中间位置,即第50百分位,显示北卡罗来纳州可用于种植的天数最少(16.4天),而阿肯色州可用于种植的天数最多(34.0天)。相比之下,佐治亚州的种植时间为23.0天。对于第50百分位的收获,阿肯色州的可收获天数最少(23.0天),南卡罗来纳州的可收获天数最多(40.0天)。佐治亚州有34.0天可以收获。这些结果对农民、从业者和研究人员的决策非常有用,包括根据天气风险确定某一年可以种植和/或收获的英亩数。仅为最大DSFW完成现场工作而调整设备尺寸,不会因恶劣的现场条件或设备故障而发生意外。这些结果对农业决策者进行机械选择和面积分配决策具有重要意义。作为本文的一个额外好处,用于访问和开发图形的R编程代码已经提供给读者在他们自己的研究中使用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Available Time to Plant and Harvest Peanuts
Peanut farmers’ acreage allocation and equipment management decisions remain heavily dependent upon weather uncertainty. The number of days suitable for fieldwork (DSFW) were evaluated during key production times for 11 peanut-producing states. The objectives of this analysis were to define most active dates for peanut planting and harvest field activities, to estimate DSFW occurring within the most active date ranges for each peanut producing state, and to analyze these DSFW data for trends over time. Crop progress data reflects when producers are most likely to engage in field work not necessarily the most agronomically advantageous time. Weekly USDA NASS data from 1995 to 2018 for planting and from 1995 to 2017 for harvest were analyzed to develop a probability distribution. Comparing the middle of the distribution, the 50th percentile, shows that North Carolina had the fewest days available for planting (16.4 days) while Arkansas has the most days for planting (34.0 days). Georgia, for comparison, had 23.0 days for planting. For harvest at the 50th percentile, Arkansas has one of the fewest days available for harvest (23.0 days) and South Carolina has the most available (40.0 days). Georgia had 34.0 days available for harvest. These results are useful for farmers, practitioners, and researchers for decision making including determining the number of acres that can be planted and/or harvested in a given year based on weather risk. Sizing equipment to complete field work only for the maximum DSFW leaves no contingency for poor field conditions or equipment failure. These results are important for farm decision makers to make machinery selection and acreage allocation decisions. As an added benefit of this paper, the R programming code used to access and develop graphs have been made available for readers to use in their own research.
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