Climatic Change最新文献_第5页

From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis 从多种未来到一种未来：针对资源节约型深度气候不确定性分析的气候知情规划情景分析

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9

Baptiste François, Alexis Dufour, Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen, Alexa Bruce, Dong Kwan Park, Casey Brown

{"title":"From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis","authors":"Baptiste François, Alexis Dufour, Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen, Alexa Bruce, Dong Kwan Park, Casey Brown","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9","url":null,"abstract":"Water resources managers face decisions related to building new infrastructure to increase water system resilience to climate and demand changes. To inform this adaptation planning process, current decision-making methods commonly use scenario approaches to estimate the benefit of adaptation options. While effective, these new analyses require communication of complicated findings to often nontechnical audiences. This paper introduces a pragmatic approach that uses the results from a bottom-up assessment of vulnerability of the water system with future climate projection-based probabilities of climate change to select a single planning scenario that encapsulates the decision-makers’ chosen level of robustness for their system. Contrary to typical implementation of option analysis under deep climate uncertainty, the proposed pragmatic approach does not require the analyst to evaluate each portfolio of adaptation options against all possible states of the world, significantly reducing the required computational costs and communication challenges. It also aligns with the planning scenario approach used in practice by water utilities. The modeling framework is illustrated for the regional water system operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (California, United States) for which changes in average temperature, precipitation and urban demand are considered.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel 气候损失和破坏情况下人道主义援助和灾害管理的资金偏好：多国德尔菲小组

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2

Juha-Pekka Jäpölä, Sophie Van Schoubroeck, Steven Van Passel

{"title":"Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel","authors":"Juha-Pekka Jäpölä, Sophie Van Schoubroeck, Steven Van Passel","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2","url":null,"abstract":"Losses and damages (l&d) from climate change and the frequency of extreme events will burden our global budgetary constraints and adaptive capacities. Scientific and analytical support for allocating public funding in humanitarian aid and disaster management to counter them involves determining the most pertinent criteria to use or where to design forecasting. Their priorities are often assumed, and assumptions can be ill-fitting. Thus, we asked the key users of such information for their preferences.A two-round anonymous Delphi method utilising global frameworks for a funding allocation simulation was employed to survey the stated preferences of a stratified panel of l&d experts (N = 36). They were experts from 19 countries of origin representing international organisations (e.g., United Nations, European Union, World Bank), the research sector, the public sector, and civil society (e.g., Save the Children, World Vision). The consensus and stability were analysed with parametric measures.We find that the near-future preference for magnitude-indicating criteria, such as people-centric and disaster risk-based, outweighs the importance of indicators related to governance, the rule of law, or a socio-economic aspect. Likewise, financing adaptation options to climate change-related risks to food security, human health, and water security are a high near-future priority for minimising l&d compared to, for example, risks to living standards or risks to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. The covariance suggests that these priorities are an emergent preference in the l&d sector. Thus, it raises further questions on what we can and should prioritise with scarce resources.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers 全球变暖对韩国夏季高峰的影响和不确定性的出现时间 (TOE) 分析

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7

Jihun Ryu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon

{"title":"A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers","authors":"Jihun Ryu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural climate variability. Determining a precise regional TOE is challenging due to disparities between modeled climates and observations. For peak summer seasons (July and August), TOE estimates range from the 2010s to the early 2030s in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5, suggesting an imminent or already reached TOE. However, for the same scenario, different methodologies and datasets project the TOE to the late 21st century, suggesting the existence of uncertainty in the TOE. One reason for this uncertainty is the discrepancies identified between climate models and observations, which suggest that climate models could delay the TOE beyond the present time. Furthermore, from 1959 to 2014, global warming accounts for less than 10% of the observed temperature. Despite this, the strengthening of global warming signals is confirmed, leading to the expectation of more extreme events than those seen in the 2018 heat wave. This raises questions about current estimates of TOE and emphasizes the need for robust climate modeling to inform effective climate action.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"161 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation 适应海平面上升的现实：通过有复原力的适应措施重塑沿海社区

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w

Mohamed A. Abdelhafez, Hussam N. Mahmoud, Bruce R. Ellingwood

{"title":"Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation","authors":"Mohamed A. Abdelhafez, Hussam N. Mahmoud, Bruce R. Ellingwood","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w","url":null,"abstract":"Approximately 11% of the world’s population lives within 10 km of an ocean coastline, a percentage that is likely to increase during the remainder of the 21st century due to urbanization and economic development. In the presence of climate change, coastal communities will be threatened by increasing damages due to sea-level rise (SLR), accompanied by hurricanes, storm surges and coastal inundation, shoreline erosion, and seawater intrusion into the soil. While the past decade has seen numerous proposals for coastal protection using adaptation methods to deal with the deep uncertainties associated with a changing climate, our review of the potential impact of SLR on the resilience of coastal communities reveals that these adaptation methods have not been informed by community resilience or recovery goals. Moreover, since SLR is likely to continue over the next century, periodic changes to these community goals may be necessary for public planning and risk mitigation. Finally, community policy development must be based on a quantitative risk-informed life-cycle basis to develop public support for the substantial public investments required. We propose potential research directions to identify effective adaptation methods based on the gaps identified in our review, culminating in a decision framework that is informed by community resilience goals and metrics and risk analysis over community infrastructure life cycles.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"148 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Qing’s central government response to the most severe drought over the past 300 years 清朝中央政府应对 300 年来最严重旱灾的措施

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6

Xudong Chen, Le Tao, Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Jingxue Pan, Siying Chen, Xianshuai Zhai

{"title":"The Qing’s central government response to the most severe drought over the past 300 years","authors":"Xudong Chen, Le Tao, Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Jingxue Pan, Siying Chen, Xianshuai Zhai","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Dingwu Great Famine (DGF) is considered to be the worst drought in China over the past 300 years. How the central government took steps to cope with the catastrophe during this period and ultimately survived deserves in-depth study. This paper collects the official records during the DGF and uses textual analysis and statistical methods to explore the responses carried by the central government. We found that 21 measures in 7 categories had been taken in response to this extreme drought, with political, economic, and cultural responses being the most commonly used. The governmental responses during DGF can be divided into three phases and had a significant “mismatch” (6 months lagging behind) compared with the meteorological process, which may be related to the higher social robustness in the early period. The 7 categories can be further clustered into 3 types based on their time-series performance. The first type includes economic, material, and political responses, which were aimed at responding to the drought impacts and reducing social losses more quickly and played the role of a “quick effect drug” for society. The second type includes agricultural and engineering, and population responses, which mitigated the drought impacts through “after-effects” measures and played the role of “slow-release drug”. The third type is the cultural response, which acted like a “placebo”. It did not help to mitigate the drought but alleviated the dissatisfaction of the refugees by shaping the spiritual objects (rain gods), thus maintaining social stability.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Depth-dependent warming of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) 埃拉特湾（亚喀巴）随深度变化的变暖现象

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03765-8

Sounav Sengupta, Hezi Gildor, Yosef Ashkenazy

引用次数: 0

A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise 英国未来平均海平面上升的物理一致性故事情节框架

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1

Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helene T. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe, Jennifer H. Weeks

{"title":"A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise","authors":"Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helene T. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe, Jennifer H. Weeks","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1","url":null,"abstract":"We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development 北极环境治理：可持续发展的挑战

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x

Anastassia Obydenkova

{"title":"Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development","authors":"Anastassia Obydenkova","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","url":null,"abstract":" The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"145 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador 厄瓜多尔种植和野生可可对气候变化的脆弱性

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9

Viviana Ceccarelli, Tobias Fremout, Eduardo Chavez, David Argüello, Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano, Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos, Evert Thomas

{"title":"Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador","authors":"Viviana Ceccarelli, Tobias Fremout, Eduardo Chavez, David Argüello, Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano, Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos, Evert Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is expected to impact cacao cultivation in Ecuador, the fifth largest cacao producing country in the world and largest exporter of fine flavour cacao. The objective of this study was to evaluate the future impact of climate change on the suitable distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and identify areas where climate change tolerant genotypes may occur in Ecuador. Using 26,152 presence points for cultivated cacao and 95 presence points for wild cacao, we modelled the present suitability distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and performed future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). For both cultivated and wild cacao, we constructed six different ensemble models employing different filtering methods for presence points, we projected each ensemble model to future climatic conditions, and we then built the final maps of present distribution and future projections based on the majority-vote criterion. Our future projections predict a 8–16% contraction and 19–21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7–12% expansion in the future. Ecogeographical zones are predicted to change in 23-33% of the combined distributions of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified the areas in Ecuador where populations of climate change tolerant genotypes are expected to occur. Interventions to promote adaptation to climate change will be required in cacao cultivation areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Ecuador, including the use of tolerant genotypes.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Engage or retreat? Exploring the determinants of participation in Climate Finance public-private partnerships 参与还是撤退？探索参与气候融资公私伙伴关系的决定因素

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6

Vu Minh Ngo, Huan Huu Nguyen, Hiep Cong Pham, Long Hoang Nguyen

{"title":"Engage or retreat? Exploring the determinants of participation in Climate Finance public-private partnerships","authors":"Vu Minh Ngo, Huan Huu Nguyen, Hiep Cong Pham, Long Hoang Nguyen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6","url":null,"abstract":"The urgent need for climate action and sustainable development has elevated the importance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in climate finance. While PPPs are crucial for mobilizing resources for climate finance, the factors influencing the willingness of different stakeholders to participate in these partnerships are not well understood. This study employs a multifaceted analytical approach, integrating theoretical insights from Stakeholder Theory, Transaction Cost Economics, and Agency Theory. We conduct a Tobit regression analysis to investigate the determinants of willingness to participate in climate finance PPPs among three key stakeholder groups: Governors, Firms, and the Public. Using survey data collected from over 1600 participants in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, this research examines the influence of perceived benefits, perceptions of PPPs, the importance of climate finance, trust and transparency, and multilateral support on stakeholders’ willingness to participate in PPPs for climate finance. The analysis reveals that the perceived benefits of PPPs and trust and transparency universally enhance the willingness to participate across all groups of stakeholders. However, the impact of positive perceptions of PPPs varies, playing a crucial role for firms and the public but not for governors. The study also highlights the significance of understanding and emphasizing the importance of climate finance, particularly when combined with trust and transparency, in encouraging stakeholder participation. Furthermore, by revealing the varied impacts of determinants across stakeholder groups, this research points to the necessity of adopting differentiated approaches to maximize participation in PPPs for climate finance, thereby supporting sustainable development and climate action goals.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0