Climatic Change最新文献

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Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development 北极环境治理:可持续发展的挑战
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x
Anastassia Obydenkova
{"title":"Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development","authors":"Anastassia Obydenkova","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p> The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"145 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The climate niche of Homo Sapiens 智人的气候优势
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03760-z
Richard S. J. Tol
{"title":"The climate niche of Homo Sapiens","authors":"Richard S. J. Tol","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03760-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03760-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will place humans in climates that are unprecedented in the evolution of the species. I use the ecological definition of the human niche in climate space, and combine this with a new constellation of methods from extreme value statistics to study human occupation near the boundaries of that niche. I find that the temperature distribution has a thin tail whereas the tail of precipitation is thick. This thick tail reflects that humans are used to a wide range of rainfall regimes, so future precipitation changes, although leading to unprecedented rainfall, are less likely to pose a major challenge. An increase in temperature, on the other hand, will put hundreds of millions of people in heat that is not just unprecedented and but also hard to imagine from extrapolating current temperatures. These findings are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"59 19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi 重新审视气候不确定性下的发展战略:马拉维案例研究
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2
Askar Mukashov, Timothy Thomas, James Thurlow
{"title":"Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi","authors":"Askar Mukashov, Timothy Thomas, James Thurlow","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141197298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science "我们不是机器人"--政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)参与者在气候科学的制作、评估、传播和实施过程中的责任感和情感体验
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y
Friederike Hartz
{"title":"“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science","authors":"Friederike Hartz","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The growing understanding of how and why the climate is changing has led to mounting calls on climate scientists to take on more responsibility in the context of climate science. While an increasing responsibilisation takes place in the academic literature, asking scientists to “do more”, there is limited engagement with the responsibilities that scientists already assume in practice. Drawing on novel empirical insights from 77 semi-structured interviews with participants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I take the increasing ‘peer-to-peer responsibilisation’ as a point of departure to contextualise such calls, asking what scientists themselves already feel and assume responsibility for at both the personal and professional level. I find that climate experts participating in the IPCC not only assume increasing responsibility across different stages of the IPCC process but also beyond. As my data analysis demonstrates, IPCC participants increasingly feel and take on responsibility not only for producing and assessing climate science but also for communicating and/or enacting it (PACE). The contribution of the article is threefold. Firstly, it makes sense of the mounting peer-to-peer responsibilisation by surfacing and contextualising how, why and with what consequences particular climate knowledge holders already assume responsibility for climate science at four key moments (PACE). Secondly, conceiving of the IPCC as a community of practice, the article provides novel insights into the work of IPCC participants and their individual experiences with the institution and its processes. Thirdly, the article adds evidence to a growing body of literature on practices of responsibility and climate emotions by focussing on participants' individual affective experiences. As the 7th Assessment Cycle gathers pace, I propose some measures the IPCC may undertake to support participants in assuming their responsibilities in the context of climate science.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141167708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contributions of changes in atmospheric circulation and thermodynamic factors to trends in spring gale events in northern China from 1973 to 2020 大气环流和热力学因素的变化对 1973-2020 年中国北方春季大风事件趋势的贡献
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03749-8
Zhengtai Zhang, Wenchao Han, Tian Xian
{"title":"Contributions of changes in atmospheric circulation and thermodynamic factors to trends in spring gale events in northern China from 1973 to 2020","authors":"Zhengtai Zhang, Wenchao Han, Tian Xian","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03749-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03749-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surface wind speed (SWS) over China exhibited a decreasing trend before the mid-1990s, referred to as SWS stilling, and an increasing trend thereafter. Northern China is susceptible to dust incidents in spring because of gales. In this study, we investigate the characteristics and causes of spring gale events over northern China. We find that gale events had a decreasing trend during both the SWS stilling and recovery period, reaching -0.68 day/year during the period 1973-2020. Four types of weather systems are associated with gale events, and analysis of all four weather systems indicates that the deep trough in the east of Eurasia is prone to cause gale events. Changes in atmospheric circulation contributed in part to the decrease of gale events, while thermodynamic factors arising from human emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and radiation changes caused by land use change, dominated the decreasing trend of gale events during the last 5 decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141167850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Building capacities for transformative climate action: lessons from five fields of practice 培养变革性气候行动的能力:五个实践领域的经验教训
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03738-x
Snigdha Nautiyal
{"title":"Building capacities for transformative climate action: lessons from five fields of practice","authors":"Snigdha Nautiyal","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03738-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03738-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Capacity building approaches have a deep history of mobilizing agency and enabling change across development, governance, and environmental contexts. It has also been recognized as a central means of implementation for supporting climate action in the Paris Agreement. Despite this, capacity building remains ambiguous, fragmented, and prone to cooption by vested interests, all of which can limit its effectiveness for transformative climate action. Given that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrates the need for transformative climate action to reduce emissions and limit warming to 1.5°C, the experiences and practical insights from capacity building implementation can be leveraged to concretize the more theoretical literature on transformation. The purpose of this study is thus to synthesize the best practices and lessons learned from scholarship on capacity building implementation for enabling transformations in the context of climate change. This scholarship is synthesized from five fields that are known for their practitioner involvement and implementation focus, and where capacity building has been in wide use for several decades: international development, public health, community development, sustainability, and climate change. Four implications emerge as essential from the synthesis: the importance of enabling agency while navigating power dynamics between capacity building stakeholders; making space for local cultures and knowledge across every stage of capacity building; incorporating mechanisms for learning, collaboration and systems thinking; and going beyond technical, managerial, and technological framings to also build capacities for envisioning, creating, mobilizing, learning and inculcating desirable attitudes, behaviors and values.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141061827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing public and scientific extreme event attribution to climate change 比较公众和科学界对极端事件归因于气候变化的看法
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03735-0
Chad Zanocco, Philip Mote, June Flora, Hilary Boudet
{"title":"Comparing public and scientific extreme event attribution to climate change","authors":"Chad Zanocco, Philip Mote, June Flora, Hilary Boudet","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03735-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03735-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme event attribution is an active area of scientific research, but public attribution of extreme events to climate change is not well understood – despite its importance to climate change communication and policy. We surveyed a representative sample of the U.S. population (<i>n</i> = 1071) to measure the public’s confidence in attributing five event types to climate change – wildfire, heat, rainfall/flooding, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Our respondents had the highest confidence in attributing wildfires and extreme heat to climate change, and the lowest confidence for hurricanes and tornadoes. Respondent characteristics, such as education level, age, race/ethnicity, political affiliation, and self-reported extreme event impacts, were linked to attribution confidence. Overall, those reporting negative impacts from extreme events had higher levels of attribution confidence. While Republicans on average had lower levels of attribution confidence, we found that self-reported negative event impacts had a moderating effect on attribution confidence among Republicans. Republicans who were more negatively impacted by extreme events had higher levels of attribution confidence compared to Republicans who were less impacted. We also compared the public’s attribution confidence to scientific assessments, developing a measure of <i>attribution alignment</i>. We found that respondents aligned with scientific event attribution for an average of 2 out of 5 extreme event types. While respondent characteristics were less consistently related to attribution alignment overall, Democrats on average had lower alignment. Our study suggests that the public is connecting climate change to extreme weather and making distinctions in attribution levels, but politics and experiences with extreme weather matter. We recommend that scientists and climate change communicators reflect this discernment in discourses about extreme events, climate change, and policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140928420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agronomic monsoon onset definitions to support planting decisions for rainfed rice in Bangladesh 支持孟加拉国雨养水稻种植决策的农艺季风起始定义
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03736-z
Eunjin Han, Carlo Montes, Sk. Ghulam Hussain, Timothy J. Krupnik
{"title":"Agronomic monsoon onset definitions to support planting decisions for rainfed rice in Bangladesh","authors":"Eunjin Han, Carlo Montes, Sk. Ghulam Hussain, Timothy J. Krupnik","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03736-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03736-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The usability gaps between climate information producers and users have always been an issue in climate services. This study aims to tackle the gap for rice farmers in Bangladesh by exploring the potential value of tailored agronomic monsoon onset definitions. Summer <i>aman</i> rice is primarily cultivated under rainfed conditions, and farmers rely largely on monsoon rainfall and its onset for crop establishment. However, farmers’ perception of the arrival of sufficient rains does not necessarily coincide with meteorological definitions of monsoon onset. Therefore, localized agronomic definitions of monsoon onset need to be developed and evaluated to advance in the targeted actionable climate forecast. We analyzed historical daily rainfall from four locations across a north-south gradient in Bangladesh and defined dynamic definitions of monsoon onset based on a set of local parameters. The agronomic onset definition was evaluated in terms of attainable yields simulated by a rice simulation model compared to results obtained using conventional meteorological onset parameters defined by the amount of rainfall received and static onset dates. Our results show that average simulated yields increase up to 7 – 9% and probabilities of getting lower yields are reduced when the year-to-year varying dynamic onset is used over the two drier locations under fully rainfed conditions. It is mainly due to earlier transplanting dates, avoiding the impact of drought experienced with early monsoon demise. However, no yield increases are observed over the two wetter locations. This study shows the potential benefits of generating “localized and translated” climate predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140928417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
News coverage of climate change and generation Z 有关气候变化和 Z 世代的新闻报道
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03731-4
Alison N. Novak
{"title":"News coverage of climate change and generation Z","authors":"Alison N. Novak","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03731-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03731-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines 2021 and 2022 news coverage of Generation Z and climate change to understand how this discursive relationship is constructed. This is important to understanding how Generation Z’s climate change activism is perceived by other groups such as other generations, activist groups, and journalists. This study answers the central question: In what ways do news articles construct and represent the relationship between Generation Z, climate change, activism, and intergenerational relationships? The study identifies five common discourses from the most popular news articles on the subject that reflect nuances in reporting and discursive construction of the group and issue: (1) climate change as inherited and chosen by Generation Z, (2) passive and active motivations for activism, (3) activism negatively impacting relationships with older groups, (4) future responsibilities, and (5) overuse of figureheads. The nuances of these news discourses impact opinions of Generation Z and the impact the group have on climate change activism with the potential to impact activist group outreach strategies, policy development, and relationships with the news media.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"123 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140928489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A ‘greenhouse affect’? Exploring young Australians’ emotional responses to climate change 温室效应"?探索澳大利亚年轻人对气候变化的情绪反应
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03737-y
Tanja Russell
{"title":"A ‘greenhouse affect’? Exploring young Australians’ emotional responses to climate change","authors":"Tanja Russell","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03737-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03737-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent studies reveal that young people are experiencing a range of emotions relating to climate change, including anxiety, anger and a sense of powerlessness. Young people have also voiced distrust in governments for failing to adequately address climate change, which they see as a critical threat to their future. However, there is limited research considering the interplay between young people’s emotions about climate change and the broader social context in which they live; social-ecological theory can assist in identifying important systemic factors influencing emotional responses to climate change. In this qualitative research project, I drew upon a social-ecological theoretical framework to explore the affective dimensions of climate change as experienced by young Australians aged 18–24 (<i>N</i> = 14). A primary, overarching finding was of climate change as a multidimensional emotional challenge for young people, with four sub-themes that describe key experiences through which it manifests: a fragmented climate education; disillusionment with politics, but hope for change; reckoning with uncertain futures; and grappling with agency. The findings contribute to the growing literature on climate-related emotions, highlighting experiences of interrelated emotions that resist being reduced to one label (e.g., ‘eco-anxiety’). Accordingly, I discuss a ‘greenhouse affect’ to convey the affective quandary provoked by climate change, expanding upon established anxiety-centred concepts. I also discuss implications for educating young Australians about climate change, and how this might improve their sense of agency to meaningfully contribute to climate solutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140888018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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