Climatic Change最新文献_第5页

The Qing’s central government response to the most severe drought over the past 300 years 清朝中央政府应对 300 年来最严重旱灾的措施

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6

Xudong Chen, Le Tao, Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Jingxue Pan, Siying Chen, Xianshuai Zhai

{"title":"The Qing’s central government response to the most severe drought over the past 300 years","authors":"Xudong Chen, Le Tao, Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Jingxue Pan, Siying Chen, Xianshuai Zhai","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03767-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Dingwu Great Famine (DGF) is considered to be the worst drought in China over the past 300 years. How the central government took steps to cope with the catastrophe during this period and ultimately survived deserves in-depth study. This paper collects the official records during the DGF and uses textual analysis and statistical methods to explore the responses carried by the central government. We found that 21 measures in 7 categories had been taken in response to this extreme drought, with political, economic, and cultural responses being the most commonly used. The governmental responses during DGF can be divided into three phases and had a significant “mismatch” (6 months lagging behind) compared with the meteorological process, which may be related to the higher social robustness in the early period. The 7 categories can be further clustered into 3 types based on their time-series performance. The first type includes economic, material, and political responses, which were aimed at responding to the drought impacts and reducing social losses more quickly and played the role of a “quick effect drug” for society. The second type includes agricultural and engineering, and population responses, which mitigated the drought impacts through “after-effects” measures and played the role of “slow-release drug”. The third type is the cultural response, which acted like a “placebo”. It did not help to mitigate the drought but alleviated the dissatisfaction of the refugees by shaping the spiritual objects (rain gods), thus maintaining social stability.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Depth-dependent warming of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) 埃拉特湾（亚喀巴）随深度变化的变暖现象

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03765-8

Sounav Sengupta, Hezi Gildor, Yosef Ashkenazy

引用次数: 0

A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise 英国未来平均海平面上升的物理一致性故事情节框架

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1

Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helene T. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe, Jennifer H. Weeks

{"title":"A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise","authors":"Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helene T. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe, Jennifer H. Weeks","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1","url":null,"abstract":"We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development 北极环境治理：可持续发展的挑战

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x

Anastassia Obydenkova

{"title":"Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development","authors":"Anastassia Obydenkova","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03762-x","url":null,"abstract":" The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"145 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador 厄瓜多尔种植和野生可可对气候变化的脆弱性

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9

Viviana Ceccarelli, Tobias Fremout, Eduardo Chavez, David Argüello, Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano, Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos, Evert Thomas

{"title":"Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador","authors":"Viviana Ceccarelli, Tobias Fremout, Eduardo Chavez, David Argüello, Rey Gastón Loor Solórzano, Ignacio Antonio Sotomayor Cantos, Evert Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is expected to impact cacao cultivation in Ecuador, the fifth largest cacao producing country in the world and largest exporter of fine flavour cacao. The objective of this study was to evaluate the future impact of climate change on the suitable distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and identify areas where climate change tolerant genotypes may occur in Ecuador. Using 26,152 presence points for cultivated cacao and 95 presence points for wild cacao, we modelled the present suitability distribution of cultivated and wild cacao and performed future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). For both cultivated and wild cacao, we constructed six different ensemble models employing different filtering methods for presence points, we projected each ensemble model to future climatic conditions, and we then built the final maps of present distribution and future projections based on the majority-vote criterion. Our future projections predict a 8–16% contraction and 19–21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7–12% expansion in the future. Ecogeographical zones are predicted to change in 23-33% of the combined distributions of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified the areas in Ecuador where populations of climate change tolerant genotypes are expected to occur. Interventions to promote adaptation to climate change will be required in cacao cultivation areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Ecuador, including the use of tolerant genotypes.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Engage or retreat? Exploring the determinants of participation in Climate Finance public-private partnerships 参与还是撤退？探索参与气候融资公私伙伴关系的决定因素

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6

Vu Minh Ngo, Huan Huu Nguyen, Hiep Cong Pham, Long Hoang Nguyen

{"title":"Engage or retreat? Exploring the determinants of participation in Climate Finance public-private partnerships","authors":"Vu Minh Ngo, Huan Huu Nguyen, Hiep Cong Pham, Long Hoang Nguyen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03759-6","url":null,"abstract":"The urgent need for climate action and sustainable development has elevated the importance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in climate finance. While PPPs are crucial for mobilizing resources for climate finance, the factors influencing the willingness of different stakeholders to participate in these partnerships are not well understood. This study employs a multifaceted analytical approach, integrating theoretical insights from Stakeholder Theory, Transaction Cost Economics, and Agency Theory. We conduct a Tobit regression analysis to investigate the determinants of willingness to participate in climate finance PPPs among three key stakeholder groups: Governors, Firms, and the Public. Using survey data collected from over 1600 participants in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, this research examines the influence of perceived benefits, perceptions of PPPs, the importance of climate finance, trust and transparency, and multilateral support on stakeholders’ willingness to participate in PPPs for climate finance. The analysis reveals that the perceived benefits of PPPs and trust and transparency universally enhance the willingness to participate across all groups of stakeholders. However, the impact of positive perceptions of PPPs varies, playing a crucial role for firms and the public but not for governors. The study also highlights the significance of understanding and emphasizing the importance of climate finance, particularly when combined with trust and transparency, in encouraging stakeholder participation. Furthermore, by revealing the varied impacts of determinants across stakeholder groups, this research points to the necessity of adopting differentiated approaches to maximize participation in PPPs for climate finance, thereby supporting sustainable development and climate action goals.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The climate niche of Homo Sapiens 智人的气候优势

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03760-z

Richard S. J. Tol

引用次数: 0

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi 重新审视气候不确定性下的发展战略：马拉维案例研究

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Askar Mukashov, Timothy Thomas, James Thurlow

引用次数: 0

Farmer field schools, climate action plans and climate change resilience among smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana 加纳北部小农的农民田间学校、气候行动计划和气候变化适应能力

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03755-w

Cornelius K. A. Pienaah, Roger Antabe, Godwin Arku, Isaac Luginaah

{"title":"Farmer field schools, climate action plans and climate change resilience among smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana","authors":"Cornelius K. A. Pienaah, Roger Antabe, Godwin Arku, Isaac Luginaah","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03755-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03755-w","url":null,"abstract":"Smallholder farmers in Ghana’s Savannah ecological zone face multiple climate stressors. Government and non-governmental organizations have introduced educative demonstrations on sustainable agriculture practices to help them cope. However, the effectiveness of these strategies in enhancing smallholder farmers’ climate resilience needs examination. Our study, guided by the Resilience Theory (RT), aimed to explore factors that shape smallholder farmers’ climate resilience and how their participation in Farmer Field Schools (FFSs) and Climate Action Plans (CAPs) affect their resilience to climate change. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional survey of 517 smallholder farmers in the Upper West region of Ghana using ordered logistic regression. Our findings showed that smallholder farmers’ “good” climate change resilience was associated with participation in Farmer Field Schools (OR: 7.809, p < 0.001) and active involvement in Climate Action Plans (OR: 1.976, p < 0.01). In addition, household food security (OR: 4.412, p < 0.001), access to credit (OR: 1.761, p < 0.01), and larger household sizes (OR: 2.255, p < 0.01) were associated with “good” climate resilience. However, larger land size (OR: 0.988, p < 0.01) and attainment of primary education (OR: 0.497, p < 0.01) showed a lesser likelihood of having “good” climate resilience. The study highlights the importance of practical learning platforms and participatory planning in improving climate resilience among smallholder farmers. Policies and programs should support these initiatives, improve resource accessibility, and tailor educational approaches. Our recommendations include expanding FFSs, integrating CAPs with agricultural services, developing scalable, adaptable, and sustainable agricultural practices, enhancing resource accessibility, and implementing monitoring and evaluation systems for these initiatives.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141197430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science "我们不是机器人"--政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）参与者在气候科学的制作、评估、传播和实施过程中的责任感和情感体验

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y

Friederike Hartz

{"title":"“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science","authors":"Friederike Hartz","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y","url":null,"abstract":"The growing understanding of how and why the climate is changing has led to mounting calls on climate scientists to take on more responsibility in the context of climate science. While an increasing responsibilisation takes place in the academic literature, asking scientists to “do more”, there is limited engagement with the responsibilities that scientists already assume in practice. Drawing on novel empirical insights from 77 semi-structured interviews with participants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I take the increasing ‘peer-to-peer responsibilisation’ as a point of departure to contextualise such calls, asking what scientists themselves already feel and assume responsibility for at both the personal and professional level. I find that climate experts participating in the IPCC not only assume increasing responsibility across different stages of the IPCC process but also beyond. As my data analysis demonstrates, IPCC participants increasingly feel and take on responsibility not only for producing and assessing climate science but also for communicating and/or enacting it (PACE). The contribution of the article is threefold. Firstly, it makes sense of the mounting peer-to-peer responsibilisation by surfacing and contextualising how, why and with what consequences particular climate knowledge holders already assume responsibility for climate science at four key moments (PACE). Secondly, conceiving of the IPCC as a community of practice, the article provides novel insights into the work of IPCC participants and their individual experiences with the institution and its processes. Thirdly, the article adds evidence to a growing body of literature on practices of responsibility and climate emotions by focussing on participants' individual affective experiences. As the 7th Assessment Cycle gathers pace, I propose some measures the IPCC may undertake to support participants in assuming their responsibilities in the context of climate science.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141167708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0