Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification on agricultural production value of Thai farm households

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Benjapon Prommawin, Nattanun Svavasu, Spol Tanpraphan, Voravee Saengavut, Theepakorn Jithitikulchai, Witsanu Attavanich, Bruce A. McCarl
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Abstract

This paper examines how rising temperatures impact the agricultural production value of Thai farmers, compares potential adaptation strategies like agricultural diversification, and analyzes future projections based on IPCC AR6 scenarios. We analyze nationally representative socioeconomic survey data from farm households alongside ERA5 weather data, utilizing econometric regression analysis. Our analysis reveals that higher temperatures lead to a reduction in agricultural output value, with the situation expected to worsen as global warming progresses. Furthermore, we find that households with diversified production practices, such as a variety of agricultural activities or multicropping, exhibit a greater capacity to adapt to rising temperatures. These findings substantiate the importance of the country’s policies promoting integrated farming and diversified crop-mix strategies.

Abstract Image

气候变化和农业多样化对泰国农户农业产值的影响
本文探讨了气温上升如何影响泰国农民的农业生产价值,比较了潜在的适应战略(如农业多样化),并分析了基于 IPCC AR6 情景的未来预测。我们利用计量经济学回归分析方法,分析了具有全国代表性的农户社会经济调查数据和 ERA5 气象数据。我们的分析表明,气温升高会导致农业产值减少,随着全球变暖的加剧,这种情况预计还会恶化。此外,我们还发现,采用多样化生产方式(如多种农业活动或多种作物种植)的家庭适应气温上升的能力更强。这些研究结果证明了国家促进综合耕作和多样化作物组合战略的政策的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Climatic Change
Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
4.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.
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