Climatic Change最新文献_第4页

Assessing spatial thermal comfort and adaptation measures for the Antalya basin under climate change scenarios 评估气候变化情景下安塔利亚盆地的空间热舒适度和适应措施

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03781-8

Oznur Isinkaralar, Ayyoob Sharifi, Kaan Isinkaralar

{"title":"Assessing spatial thermal comfort and adaptation measures for the Antalya basin under climate change scenarios","authors":"Oznur Isinkaralar, Ayyoob Sharifi, Kaan Isinkaralar","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03781-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03781-8","url":null,"abstract":"The concrete damages of climate change are intensifying, and adaptation efforts of actors around the world are increasing, especially in coastal regions. Recommending adaptation measures for specific regions and sectors and determining long-term strategies for mitigating global climate change is essential for reducing vulnerability to climate change. This research aims to estimate the changes in climatic parameters and thermal comfort zones to determine concrete targets and offer suggestions for sectors affected by possible changes. The changes that will occur until 2100 in the Antalya basin, which is located in the southernmost part of Türkiye and is a significant hub for agricultural production and tourism, were monitored spatially using Discomfort Index (DI) and Effective Temperature taking wind velocity (ETv). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): SSP 245 and SSP 585 predict that the quite cool areas prevailing in the area, according to ETv, will shrink by 24% and 46%, respectively, and the prevailing cold areas, according to DI, will shrink by 45% and 56%, respectively. By 2100, 5% of the area, according to SSP 245, and 25%, according to SSP 585, will turn into hot areas and move away from the comfort level. The fact that critical regions are areas with high vitality in terms of coastal tourism shows the need to prioritize adaptation policies. These discoveries are discussed in the context of critical issues such as water scarcity and food security, contributing to policy-making for effective management by suggesting specific adaptation measures.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141718119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices on the food and nutrition security of farming households: A microeconomic level evidence 采用气候智能型农业做法的行为意向对农户粮食和营养安全的影响：微观经济层面的证据

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03775-6

Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso, Abiodun Olusola Omotayo

{"title":"Impact of behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices on the food and nutrition security of farming households: A microeconomic level evidence","authors":"Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso, Abiodun Olusola Omotayo","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03775-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03775-6","url":null,"abstract":"The study examined the behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA) and its impact on the food-nutrition security (FNS) of farming households in South Africa. We employed a multistage sampling procedure to select rural maize farmers across the selected villages. To determine the impacts of behavioural adoption of CSA on the FNS of farming households, endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) was employed, while household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the FNS status of the households. The findings emphasized the significance of the behavioural intentions of rural maize farmers, assessed through their attitudinal dimensions (measured in terms of perceived social norms, behavioural intentions, and control) in influencing the adoption decision of CSA practices, hence CSA adoption positively impacts FNS in South Africa. The result indicates that households that adopt CSA observe a 27% and 23% increase in HDDS and a decrease in HFIAS compared to those who do not adopt CSA practices, respectively. Thus, the outcome illustrates that the adoption of CSA practices substantially enhances the HDDS and HFIAS of rural maize farming households in South Africa. Following this backdrop, a concerted effort to raise knowledge of CSA practices through disseminating pertinent information will exert influence on the farmers' adoption behaviour towards CSA practices, which is capable of improving the FNS of rural maize farmers.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141586338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate risk perceptions, change in water demand, and preferences for future interlocal collaboration 气候风险认知、用水需求变化以及未来地方间合作的偏好

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03770-x

Emily V. Bell

{"title":"Climate risk perceptions, change in water demand, and preferences for future interlocal collaboration","authors":"Emily V. Bell","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03770-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03770-x","url":null,"abstract":"In a world of increasing pressures from climate change, water utilities need to maintain—or even improve—their ability to continue provision safe and secure water supply. To ensure capacity in service delivery, some providers have embraced different forms of interlocal collaboration. Yet, such interdependence engenders risk, thus driving some collaborating providers to enter into contractual agreements. While these agreements can reduce risk, but new complexities may still arise, especially when the agreement is capital intense and physically constrained. This study asks: i) How does perceived risk of from external climate-related pressures to public service provision affect preferences for the future of current contractual agreements? and ii) how do local efforts to offset need for collaboration shape these future preferences? This study examines how beliefs and local strategies (i.e., technical, managerial, or programmatic advances) affect contract preferences among community water systems linked through interlocal agreements. The paper discusses insights about ways ontological beliefs may shape operational decisions specific to interlocal collaboration and the potential for consolidation of water service operations.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble CMIP6 多模式集合对伊朗极端降水变化的概率预测

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w

Sakineh Khansalari, Atefeh Mohammadi

{"title":"Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble","authors":"Sakineh Khansalari, Atefeh Mohammadi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03771-w","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the historical (period of 1990–2014) spatial and temporal ranking, a future projection of four extreme precipitation indices over Iran is conducted. A multi-model ensemble approach and a rank-based weighting method with ten models from the CMIP6 dataset are used for this projection. The weight of each model is calculated based on its historical simulation skill, and weighted models are employed for future projections across three periods (2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that an increase in total extreme precipitation (R95p) and the absolute intensity of extreme precipitation (AEPI) in Iran is almost certain in all periods, under all scenarios. The maximum increase of the R95p index is 10%, and the probability of its increase in all periods and scenarios (except for SSP1-2.6 scenario in the 2076–2100 period) exceeds 50%. This probability of increase is particularly high in the first period, ranging from 70 to 90%. In all periods and scenarios, the median of the number of days with extreme precipitation (R95d) is close to zero or negative. This index exhibits a decrease compared to the historical period, with a probability of over 60%, except for the 2026–2050 period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the probability of an increase in the AEPI compared to the historical period is more than 75%. This study finds no significant increase or decrease in the fraction of total rainfall from events exceeding the extreme precipitation threshold (R95pT).","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does drought exposure erode trust in the political system in Sub-Saharan Africa? 干旱是否会削弱撒哈拉以南非洲地区对政治制度的信任？

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03768-5

Susanne Rhein, Viktoria Jansesberger

{"title":"Does drought exposure erode trust in the political system in Sub-Saharan Africa?","authors":"Susanne Rhein, Viktoria Jansesberger","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03768-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03768-5","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of severe droughts. As water scarcity can destroy vital resources such as crops and livestock, droughts pose major challenges to affected societies. Concerns arise that the resulting hardship and suffering could exacerbate social tensions. Trust in the political system, defined as citizens’ overall confidence in the state to deliver satisfactory outcomes, is an integral foundation of stable state-society relations. To illuminate under what conditions droughts might exert a destabilizing effect, investigating their impact on trust in the political system is paramount. Our study is the first to investigate how drought exposure influences citizens´ overall confidence in the political system. Previous research shows that citizens tend to lose trust when dissatisfied with the living conditions and output that a system provides. While droughts emerge gradually and, thus, give states multiple opportunities to intervene, states in the Global South often struggle to master the challenging task of drought management, thereby demonstrating inadequate, dissatisfactory state performance. We argue that failures in successful drought management showcase what goes wrong in a political system, which in turn leads to an erosion of trust in the political system. Using individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer round five, matched with high-resolution water scarcity data, our analysis reveals that recently drought-exposed individuals exhibit significantly lower levels of trust in the political system compared to their unaffected counterparts. This effect is most pronounced in sub-national regions with low state capacity, where the implementation of successful drought relief measures might be particularly difficult.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification on agricultural production value of Thai farm households 气候变化和农业多样化对泰国农户农业产值的影响

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03732-3

Benjapon Prommawin, Nattanun Svavasu, Spol Tanpraphan, Voravee Saengavut, Theepakorn Jithitikulchai, Witsanu Attavanich, Bruce A. McCarl

引用次数: 0

From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis 从多种未来到一种未来：针对资源节约型深度气候不确定性分析的气候知情规划情景分析

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9

Baptiste François, Alexis Dufour, Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen, Alexa Bruce, Dong Kwan Park, Casey Brown

{"title":"From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis","authors":"Baptiste François, Alexis Dufour, Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen, Alexa Bruce, Dong Kwan Park, Casey Brown","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9","url":null,"abstract":"Water resources managers face decisions related to building new infrastructure to increase water system resilience to climate and demand changes. To inform this adaptation planning process, current decision-making methods commonly use scenario approaches to estimate the benefit of adaptation options. While effective, these new analyses require communication of complicated findings to often nontechnical audiences. This paper introduces a pragmatic approach that uses the results from a bottom-up assessment of vulnerability of the water system with future climate projection-based probabilities of climate change to select a single planning scenario that encapsulates the decision-makers’ chosen level of robustness for their system. Contrary to typical implementation of option analysis under deep climate uncertainty, the proposed pragmatic approach does not require the analyst to evaluate each portfolio of adaptation options against all possible states of the world, significantly reducing the required computational costs and communication challenges. It also aligns with the planning scenario approach used in practice by water utilities. The modeling framework is illustrated for the regional water system operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (California, United States) for which changes in average temperature, precipitation and urban demand are considered.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel 气候损失和破坏情况下人道主义援助和灾害管理的资金偏好：多国德尔菲小组

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2

Juha-Pekka Jäpölä, Sophie Van Schoubroeck, Steven Van Passel

{"title":"Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel","authors":"Juha-Pekka Jäpölä, Sophie Van Schoubroeck, Steven Van Passel","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03741-2","url":null,"abstract":"Losses and damages (l&d) from climate change and the frequency of extreme events will burden our global budgetary constraints and adaptive capacities. Scientific and analytical support for allocating public funding in humanitarian aid and disaster management to counter them involves determining the most pertinent criteria to use or where to design forecasting. Their priorities are often assumed, and assumptions can be ill-fitting. Thus, we asked the key users of such information for their preferences.A two-round anonymous Delphi method utilising global frameworks for a funding allocation simulation was employed to survey the stated preferences of a stratified panel of l&d experts (N = 36). They were experts from 19 countries of origin representing international organisations (e.g., United Nations, European Union, World Bank), the research sector, the public sector, and civil society (e.g., Save the Children, World Vision). The consensus and stability were analysed with parametric measures.We find that the near-future preference for magnitude-indicating criteria, such as people-centric and disaster risk-based, outweighs the importance of indicators related to governance, the rule of law, or a socio-economic aspect. Likewise, financing adaptation options to climate change-related risks to food security, human health, and water security are a high near-future priority for minimising l&d compared to, for example, risks to living standards or risks to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. The covariance suggests that these priorities are an emergent preference in the l&d sector. Thus, it raises further questions on what we can and should prioritise with scarce resources.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers 全球变暖对韩国夏季高峰的影响和不确定性的出现时间 (TOE) 分析

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7

Jihun Ryu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon

{"title":"A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers","authors":"Jihun Ryu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural climate variability. Determining a precise regional TOE is challenging due to disparities between modeled climates and observations. For peak summer seasons (July and August), TOE estimates range from the 2010s to the early 2030s in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5, suggesting an imminent or already reached TOE. However, for the same scenario, different methodologies and datasets project the TOE to the late 21st century, suggesting the existence of uncertainty in the TOE. One reason for this uncertainty is the discrepancies identified between climate models and observations, which suggest that climate models could delay the TOE beyond the present time. Furthermore, from 1959 to 2014, global warming accounts for less than 10% of the observed temperature. Despite this, the strengthening of global warming signals is confirmed, leading to the expectation of more extreme events than those seen in the 2018 heat wave. This raises questions about current estimates of TOE and emphasizes the need for robust climate modeling to inform effective climate action.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"161 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation 适应海平面上升的现实：通过有复原力的适应措施重塑沿海社区

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w

Mohamed A. Abdelhafez, Hussam N. Mahmoud, Bruce R. Ellingwood

{"title":"Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation","authors":"Mohamed A. Abdelhafez, Hussam N. Mahmoud, Bruce R. Ellingwood","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03763-w","url":null,"abstract":"Approximately 11% of the world’s population lives within 10 km of an ocean coastline, a percentage that is likely to increase during the remainder of the 21st century due to urbanization and economic development. In the presence of climate change, coastal communities will be threatened by increasing damages due to sea-level rise (SLR), accompanied by hurricanes, storm surges and coastal inundation, shoreline erosion, and seawater intrusion into the soil. While the past decade has seen numerous proposals for coastal protection using adaptation methods to deal with the deep uncertainties associated with a changing climate, our review of the potential impact of SLR on the resilience of coastal communities reveals that these adaptation methods have not been informed by community resilience or recovery goals. Moreover, since SLR is likely to continue over the next century, periodic changes to these community goals may be necessary for public planning and risk mitigation. Finally, community policy development must be based on a quantitative risk-informed life-cycle basis to develop public support for the substantial public investments required. We propose potential research directions to identify effective adaptation methods based on the gaps identified in our review, culminating in a decision framework that is informed by community resilience goals and metrics and risk analysis over community infrastructure life cycles.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"148 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0