Sustainable Horizons最新文献

{"title":"Braiding Two-Eyed Seeing and Education for Sustainable Development in science teacher education: The One Health Teaching Clinic model","authors":"Ulrich Hobusch ,&nbsp;Petra Bezeljak Cerv ,&nbsp;Uwe K. Simon ,&nbsp;Benedikt Heuckmann ,&nbsp;Gregor Torkar ,&nbsp;Sebastian Stuppan ,&nbsp;Dominik E. Froehlich ,&nbsp;Sascha Johann ,&nbsp;Franziska Messenboeck ,&nbsp;Noah S. Kluempen ,&nbsp;Sandra A. Barilits ,&nbsp;Kerstin Kremer ,&nbsp;Martin Scheuch","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Science education increasingly requires integrative approaches that bridge scientific knowledge with cultural, ethical, and societal perspectives to effectively address sustainability and global health challenges. In response, this article presents the One Health Teaching Clinic, an innovative educational model specifically designed for science teacher education. Grounded in the principle of Two-Eyed Seeing—a framework that combines Indigenous and Western epistemologies—the One Health Teaching Clinic systematically incorporates Education for Sustainable Development using the Synoptic Transfer Framework. Within the One Health Teaching Clinic, pre-service science teachers collaborate intensively with interdisciplinary subject-matter experts to co-design and implement lesson plans centered on contemporary One Health issues, such as pandemic preparedness, ecosystem health, and sustainable food systems. Drawing from detailed qualitative analyses of four exemplary case studies, we illustrate how this structured co-design process enables educators to navigate the complexity of socio-scientific issues by balancing rigorous scientific accuracy, cultural relevance, practical applicability, and value-driven narrative shaping. Our findings highlight how integrating Two-Eyed Seeing through the One Health Teaching Clinic model effectively promotes transdisciplinary competencies, epistemic pluralism, and transformative pedagogical practices among future science educators. We argue that embedding Two-Eyed Seeing within structured, collaborative frameworks significantly enhances the ability of teachers to serve as empowered sustainability change agents, ultimately fostering secondary students’ holistic understanding and critical engagement with pressing health and environmental concerns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"16 ","pages":"Article 100150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144281099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unlocking sustainability in the EU food system: A regional analysis of sectoral carbon emission drivers and SDG-12 performance","authors":"Mohammad Fazle Rabbi","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union's food system presents critical challenges and opportunities for achieving climate neutrality, marked by uneven progress in reducing carbon emissions across production, processing, and consumption stages. To understand the relationships, drivers, and relative performance regarding carbon emissions within food sectors and the level of achievement concerning SDG-12 targets, this study analyzes these aspects across 12 EU nations between 2010 and 2024 using correlation networks, followed by decomposition analysis, and TOPSIS rankings. Food processing emerges as the largest emission source, averaging 9982.25 kt CO₂, with extreme variability (SD = 12,851.73) between low-impact artisanal operations (25th percentile: 1350.37 kt) and fossil fuel-dependent industrial clusters (75th percentile: 12,067.52 kt). Household consumption exhibits the widest disparity, spanning 54.76 to 33,062.66 kt CO₂, driven by affluent diets and inefficient appliances, while agricultural emissions remain significant in regions reliant on fossil fuels (interquartile range: 1599.58–9734.78 kt). Systemic interdependencies reveal circular economy gaps, with packaging strongly correlating to raw material use (<em>r</em> = 0.88) and waste disposal linked to consumption footprints (<em>r</em> = 0.93). TOPSIS rankings expose regional divides: Western Industrial clusters excel in waste management (e.g., 99.89 % efficiency) and energy productivity, whereas Eastern Transitional economies lag due to structural inefficiencies like low circular material use (12.35 %). Decomposition analysis identifies industrial expansion as a key driver of emission spikes (+0.05 structural effects) and underscores sustainability gaps in Sweden (−0.08 sustainability effects), driven by hazardous waste inefficiencies and renewable energy adoption delays. Targeted interventions include retrofitting high-emitting food processors exceeding the 75th percentile (≥12,067.52 kt) with solar technologies, subsidizing precision farming tools for fossil fuel-dependent farms (≥9734.78 kt) and leveraging cross-border carbon credit systems. Consumer reforms, such as plant-based diet incentives and appliance upgrades could halve household emissions in high-consuming clusters (≥6982.53 kt). The findings encourage for region-specific strategies integrating SDG-12 targets, infrastructural modernization, and real-time monitoring to align economic growth with sustainability outcomes. By addressing sectoral variability and systemic linkages, this study provides a roadmap for EU policymakers to optimize the food system's climate resilience while advancing equitable progress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing LiDAR-generated above-ground biomass with field data in an old-growth native urban forest in Australia","authors":"Jigme Thinley ,&nbsp;Catherine Pickering ,&nbsp;Christopher Ndehedehe","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban forests contribute significantly to ecosystem services, notably in the sequestration and storage of carbon. There is a growing interest in quantifying Above Ground Biomass (AGB) to evaluate their contribution to climate mitigation. Recent advancements in remote sensing technology have resulted in publicly accessible data that facilitates the estimation of AGB across various forest types. To assess its applicability to urban forests, we conducted a comparative analysis involving Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data alongside several spectral indices, specifically the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Leaf Area Index (LAI), derived from satellite imagery. This comparison was made against field-based AGB estimates obtained from 136 ha of old-growth native forest in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Initially, the height, diameter at breast height, and species of living trees were recorded within 14 plots of 0.1 ha each (two plots from each of seven regional ecosystems) in the forest. This field data was subsequently integrated with wood density information to estimate AGB for each plot. The field estimates were then juxtaposed with a Canopy Height Model (CHM) constructed by calculating the difference between a digital terrain model and a digital surface model, both generated using LiDAR data, as well as with NDVI, EVI, and LAI values obtained from Sentinel-2 imagery for each plot. The results indicate that the CHM provided the most accurate predictions of AGB per plot when compared to field data, while the spectral indices yielded less satisfactory results. Utilizing simple linear regression (AGB = 19.97*CHM – 80.3, r-squared = 0.66, p-value &lt; 0.001), the CHM was employed to model AGB across the entire forest, which included the calculation of total AGB and Above Ground Carbon. This was achieved by summing the estimated AGB across a one-ha grid and subsequently summing AGB based on the average AGB per regional ecosystem multiplied by its respective area. Both estimates (32,210 and 32,062 metric tons, respectively) were significantly lower than the field data estimate for living trees, which was 37,876 metric tons. The findings of this study demonstrate that CHM derived from publicly accessible LiDAR data reliably predicts field-sampled AGB at the plot level and effectively models AGB at the entire forest scale. Furthermore, the model was utilized to predict AGB across distinct regional ecosystem zones, highlighting its capability to capture the variability of AGB within diverse ecosystem settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100147"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying dynamics of ecosystem carbon storage under influence of land use and land cover change in coastal zone from remote sensing perspective","authors":"Chao Chen ,&nbsp;Jintao Liang ,&nbsp;Weiwei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The land cover in the coastal zone is characterized by frequent changes, fragmented landscape and strong spatial heterogeneity, which makes accurate assessment and analysis of coastal ecosystem carbon storage challenging. This study developed a coastal ecosystem carbon storage assessment framework by integrating Landsat time-series analysis with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. First, using the GEE cloud platform and Landsat long-term satellite remote sensing data, this study applied median compositing algorithms to mitigate the impact of periodic tidal inundation on land boundaries. Second, by integrating multiple feature parameters and utilizing the random forest method, accurate information on land use/cover change was obtained. Subsequently, carbon density parameters were determined, and coastal ecosystem carbon storage was assessed using the InVEST model. Finally, a spatiotemporal pattern analysis of coastal ecosystem carbon storage in Hangzhou Bay over nearly four decades was conducted. The findings yielded the subsequent outcomes: (1) The random forest algorithm integrated multiple feature parameters is stable, and can extract LUCC information accurately. (2) The overall coastal ecosystem carbon storage of Hangzhou Bay, China, witnessed a decline over the preceding four decades, dropping from 108.15 Mt in 1985 to 82.47 Mt in 2023. (3) The decrease of vegetation area and the expansion of build-up area are the main reasons for the change of carbon storage. This study furnishes valuable data support to underpin the strategic governance of land resources in the Hangzhou Bay region, while the resultant carbon storage dataset holds critical ramifications for regional sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization and evaluation of commercial biochar for surface water purification","authors":"Lorenzo Animali ,&nbsp;Sveva Corrado ,&nbsp;Nicola Mitillo ,&nbsp;Paola Tuccimei ,&nbsp;Mattia Bartoli ,&nbsp;Massimo Mattei ,&nbsp;Mauro Giorcelli","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biochar is a promising material for carbon storage and water purification, particularly for heavy metal removal. The transition from laboratory studies to real-world applications remains challenging due to variability in commercial biochar properties and lack of testing on multi-contaminant matrixes.</div><div>The study aims at bridging such a gap by characterizing and testing nine commercial biochar in the real case scenario of the area surrounding the decommissioned Malagrotta landfilling site (Latium region, central Italy). The area is notorious for legal, social, health and environmental issues. Periodic monitoring performed by local authorities classifies chemical water quality as scarce. In this context, the effect of environmental water-biochar interactions was tested on surface water samples. Biochar multi-method characterization was carried out through optical microscopy, SEM, EDX spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, ICP-MS, pH-electric conductivity and FT-IR spectroscopy.</div><div>Biochar characterization allowed systematic comparison not possible trough commercial labels: bulk composition is carbonaceous (78–92 %); mineralization mostly consists of calcite (&lt;8 % for most samples); heavy metal contaminants are present (up to &gt;100 ppm for Chromium and Zinc); pH ranges from 8 to 12, bearing exponential relationship with electrical conductivity (EC230–2417 µS); FT-IR spectra testify high aromaticity and variability in oxygenated (≈1700 cm^-1) functional groups, less abundant in pyro-gasification-produced biochar compared to pyrolysis-produced ones.Contrary to expectations, trace pollutant concentrations in Malagrotta waters are within legal limits. Thus Malagrotta case study explores bottom thresholds for surface water treatment using biochar. Low trace contaminant concentrations hinder detection of adsorption phenomena. Moreover, leaching tests utilising drinking water and high biochar dosage (10 g/L) demonstrate biochar's safety, as leaching is limited to few μg/L. These results are instrumental in elaborating biochar specific water treatment regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100145"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143878483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing sludge bulking control in wastewater treatment: A comprehensive review of detection, identification, and strategic interventions","authors":"Han-Jun Sun ,&nbsp;Shan-Shan Yang ,&nbsp;Yi-Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Ying Chen ,&nbsp;Tong Wu ,&nbsp;Le Zhong ,&nbsp;Chen-Hao Cui ,&nbsp;Meng-Qi Ding ,&nbsp;Min Liu ,&nbsp;Ji-Wei Pang ,&nbsp;Lu-Yan Zhang ,&nbsp;Ding-Ding Tang ,&nbsp;Yan Zhou ,&nbsp;Qiong Qin ,&nbsp;Xiao-Qing Dong ,&nbsp;Nan-Qi Ren ,&nbsp;Jie Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sludge bulking, characterized by poor sludge settleability and unchecked proliferation of filamentous bacteria, poses a significant challenge to the efficiency of the activated sludge (AS) process. Employing bibliometric methods to navigate through recent literature, this literature review delves into the latest advancements in detection, identification, and control strategies for sludge bulking, highlighting the role of modern diagnostic tools, such as fluorescence in situ hybridization, polymerase chain reaction, and high-throughput sequencing. These methodologies have revolutionized our understanding of microbial communities, offering detailed insights into their dynamics and interactions. Quantitative image analysis, facilitated by sophisticated microscopy and computational techniques, has emerged as a powerful tool for examining floc characteristics and quantifying filamentous bacteria, enhancing the precision of sludge bulking detection. This review emphasizes the integration of operational data with machine learning and statistical methods to refine predictive accuracy, which is crucial for early detection and effective management of sludge bulking. It evaluates a range of control strategies—from chemical to biological and physical methods—underscoring the potential of emerging technologies, such as quorum quenching and magnetic fields in addressing sludge bulking issues. By adopting a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates microbial ecology, process engineering, and technological innovations, the manuscript offers a holistic perspective on sludge bulking challenges. It shows the importance of integrated, multifaceted strategies that consider the ecological balance within AS systems to achieve long-term control of sludge bulking. This review not only synthesizes the current state of knowledge but also identifies gaps, setting the stage for future research aimed at developing sustainable solutions to enhance the reliability and performance of wastewater treatment plants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100142"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143784019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating climate change: Impacts on indigenous practices concerning agrifood systems in Nepal's socio-ecological landscape","authors":"Hari Prasad Pandey ,&nbsp;Suman Aryal ,&nbsp;Bishnu Hari Poudyal ,&nbsp;Shreejana Bhusal ,&nbsp;Tek Narayan Maraseni","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change, its consequences, and related adaptation and mitigation strategies have been widely discussed in recent decades. However, the impacts of climate change on indigenous and local communities, their cultural adaptation practices, and the integrity of agrifood production systems have received limited attention. This study addresses this gap by examining the perspectives of forest-dependent local stakeholders (FDLS) in Nepal's lowland landscape. Using a participatory research approach, we analyzed empirical climatic data to assess the threats climate change poses to the cultural practices of indigenous and local peoples. We explored the adaptation strategies employed by these communities within the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews (n = 136), focus group discussions (n = 9), and expert interviews (n = 27) across selected districts, complemented by secondary sources such as policy documents, district profiles, and climate reports. Our findings reveal significant climatic changes, including rising temperatures, earlier summers, shorter winters, unpredictable monsoons, increased droughts and wildfires, and water shortages. These changes have forced FDLS to adopt less water-intensive, drought-tolerant, insect-resistant, and hybrid crop varieties. However, these adaptation strategies often come with additional costs, labor, time, and technological demands, impacting livelihoods and contributing to cultural disintegration. Moreover, these changes have jeopardized food systems and eroded long-standing local traditions tied to sustainable livelihoods. This underscores the urgent need to strengthen ecosystem and community resilience to safeguard food security and the environment in the face of climate change. Our findings highlight site-specific impacts and adaptation strategies, the challenges to indigenous practices and cultural preservation, and policy pathways to address these issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143735146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards an Aporia? Empirical evidence on the relationship between consumer behaviour and metaverse-based virtual stores","authors":"Flavio Boccia,&nbsp;Nadia Palmieri","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, Metaverse technology has caught the attention of many businesses and consumers. However, there is no research on this topic in the food sector. Thus, it is crucial to understand the key drivers influencing consumers’ intention to purchase food through Metaverse technology. The present research leverages a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to analyse 710 Italian consumers. The results highlighted perceived technological and regulatory uncertainty and the feeling of cyber risk as significant obstacles to consumers’ intention to purchase food using Metaverse platforms. Conversely, several factors emerged as important facilitators, including performance expectancy, effort expectancy, perceived herd behaviour, hedonic motivation and consumer innovativeness. The study shows practical implications for businesses, practitioners and Metaverse developers in designing effective marketing strategies to promote the adoption of Metaverse commerce in the food sector. In fact, this research proposes a model that can be applied by stakeholders. Finally, this paper offers both actionable recommendations and theoretical insights.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Carbon Sink Conservation Areas (CSCAs) as a land use strategy for climate change mitigation","authors":"Tianyu Wang ,&nbsp;Wenze Yue ,&nbsp;Tong Wu ,&nbsp;Jinhui Xiong ,&nbsp;Haoxuan Xia ,&nbsp;Bo Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving global “carbon neutrality” necessitates maximizing the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems. While the importance of enhancing terrestrial carbon sequestration is widely acknowledged, translating this goal into effective land use policies at local scales remains a significant challenge. This study proposes a novel, grid-based strategy for establishing Carbon Sink Conservation Areas (CSCAs) that explicitly considers the projected impacts of future climate change on carbon sequestration potential. Using an integrated modeling approach incorporating the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), we evaluated the carbon sequestration dynamics under various land use scenarios. Our results demonstrate that incorporating strategically designated CSCAs can enhance carbon sequestration by an additional 1,180–1,900 kt C over the simulation period. Analysis of interannual variability highlights a substantial increase in the carbon sequestration benefits of CSCAs strategy post-2027, indicating its long-term efficacy. Our analysis further indicates that, by 2035, future land use changes guided solely by China's Ecological Conservation Red Line (ECR) strategy are projected to become a carbon source. In contrast, adopting CSCAs can reverse this trajectory, enabling land use across the entire region to function as a carbon sink. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for informing land use planning and policy decisions aimed at mitigating climate change through enhanced terrestrial carbon sequestration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100141"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data-driven modeling indicates projected increase in plant production confines warming-induced topsoil organic carbon change in China within a small range in the 21st Century","authors":"Huiwen Li ,&nbsp;Yue Cao ,&nbsp;Yiping Wu ,&nbsp;Shuguang Liu ,&nbsp;Wenzhi Zhao ,&nbsp;Guoyi Zhou ,&nbsp;Jingfeng Xiao ,&nbsp;Georgii Alexandrov ,&nbsp;Linjing Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.horiz.2025.100138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the topsoil, the most sensitive part of soil profile to climate change, under future climate trajectories is vital for achieving carbon neutrality in China. However, large uncertainties and controversies exist in Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. We used a data-driven model to assess the responses of SOC to future climate change and quantified the critical biomass carbon input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) to preserve the current SOC level. Our results suggest that future warming alone may reduce the national topsoil organic carbon stock by 605.3 Tg C (1.72 %) by the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected increase in precipitation cannot offset the negative impact of warming under all climate trajectories. We estimate that 18.5 %, 38.0 %, and 46.5 % of additional NPP are required in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s to offset the national SOC loss under RCP8.5, respectively. Further simulations driven by the NPP projections of ESMs suggest that the increasing NPP can confine warming-induced SOC loss within a small range and even slightly increase SOC in the 2090s under RCP4.5 and 8.5. Nevertheless, SOC dynamics show large spatial discrepancy, and regions with high SOC levels, especially Northeast and Southwest of China, have a high potential of losing carbon and deserve more attention. This work extends our knowledge about the future dynamics of topsoil organic carbon in China and can be a reference for current ESMs to produce more robust regional predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101199,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Horizons","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100138"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}