Unlocking sustainability in the EU food system: A regional analysis of sectoral carbon emission drivers and SDG-12 performance

The European Union's food system presents critical challenges and opportunities for achieving climate neutrality, marked by uneven progress in reducing carbon emissions across production, processing, and consumption stages. To understand the relationships, drivers, and relative performance regarding carbon emissions within food sectors and the level of achievement concerning SDG-12 targets, this study analyzes these aspects across 12 EU nations between 2010 and 2024 using correlation networks, followed by decomposition analysis, and TOPSIS rankings. Food processing emerges as the largest emission source, averaging 9982.25 kt CO₂, with extreme variability (SD = 12,851.73) between low-impact artisanal operations (25th percentile: 1350.37 kt) and fossil fuel-dependent industrial clusters (75th percentile: 12,067.52 kt). Household consumption exhibits the widest disparity, spanning 54.76 to 33,062.66 kt CO₂, driven by affluent diets and inefficient appliances, while agricultural emissions remain significant in regions reliant on fossil fuels (interquartile range: 1599.58–9734.78 kt). Systemic interdependencies reveal circular economy gaps, with packaging strongly correlating to raw material use (r = 0.88) and waste disposal linked to consumption footprints (r = 0.93). TOPSIS rankings expose regional divides: Western Industrial clusters excel in waste management (e.g., 99.89 % efficiency) and energy productivity, whereas Eastern Transitional economies lag due to structural inefficiencies like low circular material use (12.35 %). Decomposition analysis identifies industrial expansion as a key driver of emission spikes (+0.05 structural effects) and underscores sustainability gaps in Sweden (−0.08 sustainability effects), driven by hazardous waste inefficiencies and renewable energy adoption delays. Targeted interventions include retrofitting high-emitting food processors exceeding the 75th percentile (≥12,067.52 kt) with solar technologies, subsidizing precision farming tools for fossil fuel-dependent farms (≥9734.78 kt) and leveraging cross-border carbon credit systems. Consumer reforms, such as plant-based diet incentives and appliance upgrades could halve household emissions in high-consuming clusters (≥6982.53 kt). The findings encourage for region-specific strategies integrating SDG-12 targets, infrastructural modernization, and real-time monitoring to align economic growth with sustainability outcomes. By addressing sectoral variability and systemic linkages, this study provides a roadmap for EU policymakers to optimize the food system's climate resilience while advancing equitable progress.