Journal of Climate Finance最新文献_第5页

A modelling framework for equity portfolio projections under different carbon price scenarios 不同碳价格情景下股票投资组合预测的建模框架

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100033

Lorenzo Prosperi , Luca Zanin

{"title":"A modelling framework for equity portfolio projections under different carbon price scenarios","authors":"Lorenzo Prosperi , Luca Zanin","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is recognised that climate risks (including carbon pricing policy) are a new source of risk for the financial system. We propose a modelling framework for medium-term projections of stock returns under different carbon price scenarios. First, we construct a green factor to augment the classic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and capture a firm’s exposure to climate policy risks. Then, we project to 2040 the factors of the CAPM, conditional on different carbon price pathways, using the estimated medium-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model (MBVAR). Finally, we project the stock returns of each firm in the portfolio. Our scenarios suggest that the impacts of a carbon price policy are not confined to the most polluting firms (mining and quarrying, transportation and storage firms) for the effect of systematic risk. Moreover, in the short term, the negative impacts of a carbon price policy are more accentuated under a disorderly than an orderly transition. In the medium term, the projections suggest that the stock market progressively adapts to new conditions and believes in the benefits of rigorous carbon policies to incentivise the transition to a low-carbon economy. The proposed toolbox may represent effective support for investors in preparing portfolios for climate transition risks in the context of uncertainty regarding the timing of the introduction of a carbon policy. For policymakers, it can help shed light on how policies to prevent or mitigate climate change effects can affect financial stability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100033"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949728024000038/pdfft?md5=597dd913e556b44a54ee6ca7fb2656c0&pid=1-s2.0-S2949728024000038-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139504282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of natural disasters on banks’ impairment flow – Evidence from Germany 自然灾害对银行减值流的影响--来自德国的证据

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100031

Iliriana Shala , Benno Schumacher

引用次数: 0

External finance for climate change mitigation: Assessing the impact of energy aid and total aid inflows on the ecological footprint 缓解气候变化的外部资金:评估能源援助和援助总额流入对生态足迹的影响

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100028

Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath , Mohd Arshad Ansari , Mantu Kumar Mahalik , Hooi Hooi Lean

{"title":"External finance for climate change mitigation: Assessing the impact of energy aid and total aid inflows on the ecological footprint","authors":"Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath , Mohd Arshad Ansari , Mantu Kumar Mahalik , Hooi Hooi Lean","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the role of energy aid and total aid inflows in the ecological footprint of BRICS countries while controlling the economic growth, energy consumption, remittance inflows, and foreign direct investment inflows for the period spanning from 1992 to 2016. The empirical outcome of this work shows the long-run relationship for the selected variables. We find that overseas energy aid, total aid, and foreign direct investment inflows reduce ecological footprint while economic growth, remittance inflows, and energy consumption fuel it. These findings are robust across the alternative panel techniques used. However, the results imply that the energy aid, total aid, and investment capital coming from other countries and international agencies to BRICS countries are enhancing green energy plans rather than profiteering. This may be one of the reasons for the reduction of the ecological footprint in BRICS countries. Therefore, this study further suggests an effective climate mitigation policy for ensuring a life-sustaining green environment if the governments of BRICS countries can stimulate greater inflows of overseas energy aid, total aid, and foreign direct investment towards making the investment in green energy plans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100028"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S294972802300024X/pdfft?md5=627245f6f6f8168e5c048a485bd0002d&pid=1-s2.0-S294972802300024X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92047443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of transient shocks to productivity on long-term social discounting 生产率的短暂冲击对长期社会折扣的影响

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100027

Victor E. Gluzberg , Yuri A. Katz

{"title":"Impact of transient shocks to productivity on long-term social discounting","authors":"Victor E. Gluzberg , Yuri A. Katz","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The cost-benefit analysis of long-run climate mitigation projects and valuations of a social cost of carbon critically depend on the long-term social discount factor. Here, we consider the problem of the socially optimal risk-adjusted ‘Gamma discounting’ in the presence of strong exogeneous shocks to productivity of capital. We establish that the declining schedule of the long-term forward discount rates over time is very sensitive to the average frequency of shocks, <span><math><mi>λ</mi></math></span>, and the difference between the key model parameters: the intergenerational inequality aversion of a social planner <span><math><mi>η</mi></math></span> and the shape parameter <span><math><mi>a</mi></math></span> of the assumed Gamma distribution of productivity rates. We establish that for a relatively small intergenerational inequality aversion, <span><math><mrow><mi>η</mi><mo>≤</mo><mi>a</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, the lowest possible forward discount rate is equal to <span><math><mi>λ</mi></math></span>. Qualitatively, this important conclusion can be explained by a higher sensitivity of the discount factor to technological breakthroughs bringing back high productivity rates (positive shocks) than to disasters (negative shocks). However, if <span><math><mrow><mi>η</mi><mo>></mo><mi>a</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>></mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span>, the socially optimal forward discount rate can decline further down, towards zero, with a growth of the time horizon. Thus, socioeconomic projections of long-term discount rates require account of potential advances in technology.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100027"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949728023000238/pdfft?md5=15c303e4df0dad9ba13594d976fb1b58&pid=1-s2.0-S2949728023000238-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92047440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty and idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from the non-financial listed hinese firms 气候政策不确定性与特殊波动:来自中国非金融类上市公司的证据

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100026

Xiaohang Ren , Haoyue Yan , Giray Gozgor

引用次数: 0

Impact of financial development on the development of the renewable energy industry of China 金融发展对中国可再生能源产业发展的影响

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100023

Danqi Wei , Hui Wu

{"title":"Impact of financial development on the development of the renewable energy industry of China","authors":"Danqi Wei , Hui Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Building a new electricity system based on renewable energy reflects the strategic direction of China's low-carbon energy transition, we examine the role of financial development in this process. Distinguishing from existing studies, we focus on the four dimensions of bank intermediation, bond market, stock market and FDI and to measure the growth in the renewable energy industry (RE) using aggregate and relative volume indicators. There are three main findings in this paper. First, bank credit and bond financing are the most important external financing instruments. Second, the effect of FDI on RE is significant only in southern China. Third, the effect of the stock market on renewable energy production is related to the regional financial market environment and the intrinsic dynamics of transformation, which is more significant in the southern and energy-rich regions but not fully evident in the northern and energy-poor regions. Regarding the mechanism of influence, in the South, bank intermediation, the bond market and the stock market contribute to renewable energy technology and thus to the capital formation of enterprises. FDI can force renewable energy firms in the South to increase their innovative decisions and helps promote the share of renewable energy production. In energy-poor regions, bank intermediation and bond markets are more conducive to promoting renewable energy technology and thus industry growth. Further study finds that the favorable policy signals released by the central government can lead to more financial capital allocations to the industry, which in turn creates diversified financing channels for enterprises.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100023"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49890647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Climate risk and financial stress in ECOWAS 西非经共体的气候风险和财政压力

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100025

Mamadou Nouhou Diallo , Mamadou Mouminy Bah , Seydou Nourou Ndiaye

{"title":"Climate risk and financial stress in ECOWAS","authors":"Mamadou Nouhou Diallo , Mamadou Mouminy Bah , Seydou Nourou Ndiaye","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the causal relationship between climate risk and financial stress in ECOWAS countries spanning the period from 2000–2019. We use the Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Vector model (MTVAR) to estimate this relationship. Our findings reveal the existence of an optimal temperature threshold, below and above which a complex interplay occurs between climate risk and financial stress. This empirical evidence strongly supports the the non-linear relationship between climate risk and financial stress. Specifically, our analysis identifies 28.35<sup>°C</sup> as the optimal temperature threshold. Below this point, the contribution of climate risk to financial stress diminishes, and conversely, the financial system acts to mitigate global warming. However, above 28.35<sup>°C</sup>, climate risk exacerbates financial stress, and the financial system becomes a contributor to global warming. Public and monetary authorities need to pay more attention to the impact of climate risk on finance and the way it operates in ecological transitions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100025"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949728023000214/pdfft?md5=9e0d76d564b7b84d17a2aa0fdc0100eb&pid=1-s2.0-S2949728023000214-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92047439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Finance “Blending” and NDC achievement under the Paris agreement 为巴黎协定下的“混合”和国家自主贡献成果提供资金

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100024

Jon Strand

{"title":"Finance “Blending” and NDC achievement under the Paris agreement","authors":"Jon Strand","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate finance, funded by governments of high-income (H) countries, can be used to purchase assets in the international carbon market for offset trading, thus “blending” with such transactions. In this paper it is shows analytically that when there are no distortions in credit markets, finance blending leads to too little greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in H countries, and too much in L countries. The offset market is then distorted by climate finance blending, given that all offset credits are attributed to the carbon market participants. This distortion is removed when such “blended” climate finance resources are instead attributed in proportion to their finance shares. Adding climate finance to the carbon market has no impact on global GHG mitigation as long as the trading countries’ targets for emissions reductions (their “climate ambition”) is not changed; higher ambition levels are thus always required for climate finance to contribute to a reduction in global GHG emissions. When L country market participants have limited access to credit markets, blending can increase global greenhouse-gas mitigation by adding climate finance resources to the carbon market, thus facilitating L country market participants’ access to funding of their planned mitigation projects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100024"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949728023000202/pdfft?md5=4e74e97e148e8cdd5ec4f7bf2958bd52&pid=1-s2.0-S2949728023000202-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92047441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corporate environmental performance and efficiency: Evidence from stochastic frontier analysis 企业环境绩效与效率:来自随机前沿分析的证据

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100022

Paulo Pereira da Silva

引用次数: 0

A learning by doing multiplier accelerates the transition to photovoltaic cells

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100016

Anita C. Tendler, Robert K. Kaufmann

{"title":"A learning by doing multiplier accelerates the transition to photovoltaic cells","authors":"Anita C. Tendler, Robert K. Kaufmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2023.100016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Abating emissions of carbon dioxide depends in part on how quickly the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from photovoltaic cells (PV) achieves grid parity without policy interventions. Reaching this threshold is accelerated by learning by doing, which reduces the LCOE generated by PV. The resultant cost reduction generates a positive feedback loop and increases the demand for PV; but previous analyses ignore this feedback and therefore overlook a critical learning by doing multiplier effect, in which increasing the cumulative production of PV modules lowers their price, and lower PV module prices increase purchases of PV modules, which increases cumulative production of PV modules, and so on. We quantify the learning by doing multiplier effect with a cointegrating vector autoregression (CVAR) model that captures the simultaneous relation between the price for and cumulative production of PV modules. The learning by doing multiplier effect amplifies the static effects of learning by nearly a factor of ten and eliminates the simultaneous equation bias in previous estimates of unidirectional learning curves. This multiplier effect enhances the ability of policies, such as a carbon tax, to lower the costs of PV, increase cumulative production, and lower carbon emissions. Together, these results suggest that grid parity is closer than indicated by unidirectional learning curves.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100016"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49882313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0