Journal of Climate Finance最新文献

Climate risk and stock returns 气候风险和股票回报

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100095

Hakan Yilmazkuday

{"title":"Climate risk and stock returns","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the dynamic effects of global climate variability on the stock returns of 28 countries using country-specific structural vector autoregression models from 2003 to 2025. Empirical results suggest that the impact of physical climate risk shocks, proxied by the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, is highly heterogeneous. Stock markets in several European and emerging economies, such as Chile, Czechia, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Sweden, and Switzerland, respond positively, while markets in the United States and Korea react negatively to El Niño events. These climate risk shocks explain a significant portion of stock return volatility, reaching up to 9.0% in Hungary. A central contribution is the finding that financial markets primarily react to unexpected climate anomalies rather than forecasted ones. This indicates that while markets efficiently price predictable information, climate surprises are a genuine and unpriced risk factor. To explore potential nonlinearities, we also conduct a subsample analysis and find that responses were largely positive in the 2003–2013 period but predominantly negative in the 2014–2025 period. This shift coincides with a major change in the global climate policy landscape. The results establish this specific driver of physical climate risk as a significant, country-specific, and dynamic factor requiring sophisticated analysis by investors and policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"16 ","pages":"Article 100095"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do financial development, technological innovation and carbon emissions exhibit time-dynamic relationships? Evidence from OECD countries 金融发展、技术创新和碳排放是否表现出时间动态关系？来自经合组织国家的证据

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100088

Tarek Ghazouani , Ichraf Ouechtati , Zaineb Abidi

{"title":"Do financial development, technological innovation and carbon emissions exhibit time-dynamic relationships? Evidence from OECD countries","authors":"Tarek Ghazouani , Ichraf Ouechtati , Zaineb Abidi","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid growing concerns over climate change and the evolving role of financial systems and innovation in environmental sustainability, understanding their dynamic interactions has become increasingly important. In particular, the effects of financial development and technological innovation on carbon emissions remain ambiguous due to potential non-linearities and time-varying dynamics. This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between financial development, technological innovation, and CO₂ emissions in 19 OECD countries over the period 1990–2019 using a non-parametric approach. The results reveal a non-linear association between financial development and CO₂ emissions, characterized by alternating positive and negative phases. Similarly, the impact of technological innovation on emissions exhibits significant temporal variation. These findings highlight the complex interplay of mechanisms such as energy efficiency improvements, financial resource allocation, and environmental regulations. The study underscores the need for adaptive and phase-specific environmental policies that align with the evolving stages of financial and technological development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100088"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148186289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cross-border effects of climate policies on bank lending: Insights from foreign bank branches in Hong Kong 气候政策对银行贷款的跨境影响：来自香港外资银行分行的见解

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100087

Kelvin Ho , Andrew Wong , Vincent Lo

{"title":"Cross-border effects of climate policies on bank lending: Insights from foreign bank branches in Hong Kong","authors":"Kelvin Ho , Andrew Wong , Vincent Lo","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how global banks’ cross-border lending to high-emitting sectors is influenced by the stringency of climate policies in their home jurisdiction and their greenness commitment. Using a panel dataset of foreign bank branches in Hong Kong (FBHKs), we find that their aggregate exposure to high-emitting sectors has been stable. Although FBHKs from jurisdictions with stricter climate policies tend to have slightly higher average loan growth to high-emitting sectors as compared to other FBHKs, a further investigation using a granular borrower-level dataset reveals that their lending is primarily allocated to borrowers with a relatively lower emission intensity, suggesting a more selective approach to lending in high-emission sectors. Moreover, we find that FBHKs with a stronger greenness commitment, as indicated by their parent banks’ ESG scores, tend to have lower loan growth to high-emitting sectors when their home-jurisdiction climate policies tighten. The findings underscore the critical need for enhanced global coordination on climate policies, and more policies to promote a stronger commitment to environmental sustainability of the global banking sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100087"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148186290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financing under climate change: The effect of climate risk sensitivity on firms’ access to credit 气候变化下的融资：气候风险敏感性对企业信贷获取的影响

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100089

My Nguyen , Tung D. Nguyen , Trang Thi Dang

{"title":"Financing under climate change: The effect of climate risk sensitivity on firms’ access to credit","authors":"My Nguyen , Tung D. Nguyen , Trang Thi Dang","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether country-level vulnerability to climate change threats is associated with firms’ access to finance at both extensive and intensive margins. Using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys across 65 countries over 2003–2022, we link firm financing outcomes to the ND-GAIN Climate Risk Sensitivity (CRS) index, which captures the broader climate-sensitive national operating and lending environment rather than firm-specific physical exposure. A one-percentage-point increase in CRS is associated with a 1.63 %age-point increase in the probability that firms report access to finance as an obstacle and a 1.26 %age-point decline in the likelihood of having a credit line or bank loan. CRS is also associated with lower loan application and higher borrowing discouragement. At the intensive margin, the shares of working capital and fixed assets financed by bank loans fall by 1.23 and 1.29 %age points, respectively, while reliance on internal funds increases. Non-bank financial institutions do not appear to offset weaker bank financing. Moderation results suggest that technological development mainly attenuates extensive-margin constraints, whereas financial market development provides a broader buffer. The CRS–finance relationship is stronger in low- and lower-middle-income countries and varies across regions. Policy priorities include strengthening financial-system depth, expanding credit guarantees, and widening access to alternative finance in climate-sensitive economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"15 ","pages":"Article 100089"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148186291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The response of European insurance companies stock market returns to possibly1 climate-related disasters 欧洲保险公司股票市场对可能与气候有关的灾难的反应

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100081

Jörg Döpke, Lars Tegtmeier

引用次数: 0

Hedging rainfall volatility in Indian agriculture: A quantile-Gamma approach to weather derivatives 对冲降雨波动在印度农业：分位数伽玛方法的天气衍生品

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100082

Pankaj Yadav , Vivek Vijay

{"title":"Hedging rainfall volatility in Indian agriculture: A quantile-Gamma approach to weather derivatives","authors":"Pankaj Yadav , Vivek Vijay","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rainfall extremes increasingly disrupt agricultural and financial stability under climate change. This study introduces a Quantile–Gamma framework to model non-stationary rainfall distributions and translate them into digital weather derivative strategies for hedging climate risk. Integrating high-resolution gridded rainfall data with a hybrid forecasting architecture – combining SARIMA’s interval reliability and XGBoost’s predictive accuracy – this approach anchors predictive analytics to a gamma-distributed climatological baseline. Using data from eight Indian agricultural states (1995–2025), the approach demonstrates superior performance in balancing uncertainty quantification and predictive precision (interval coverage: 91.0%; MAE: 1.128). Building on these results, a digital climate-finance dashboard provides state-specific decision support for designing cost-effective weather derivatives, enabling farmers to manage deficit risks and agribusinesses to hedge excess-rainfall exposure. By supporting market linked resilience, hybrid contract design, and region-specific premium discovery, this study bridges extreme-value rainfall statistics with practical financial instruments, offering a scalable pathway for enhancing agricultural resilience and informing sustainable climate-finance strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100082"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty and the forecastability of inflation 气候政策的不确定性和通货膨胀的可预测性

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100080

Afees A. Salisu , Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna , Rangan Gupta , Yunhan Zhang

{"title":"Climate policy uncertainty and the forecastability of inflation","authors":"Afees A. Salisu , Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna , Rangan Gupta , Yunhan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the predictive content of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) for forecasting the inflation rate of the United States (US) over the monthly period of 1987:05–2024:11. We evaluate the performance of our proposed CPU-based predictive model, estimated via the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares (FQGLS) approach, against a historical average benchmark model, with the FQGLS technique adopted to account for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the data. We find statistical evidence in favour of a CPU-based model relative to the benchmark, as well as in the case of an extended model involving physical risks of climate change and financial and macroeconomic factors, extracted from a large data set, when CPU is included. The predictive superiority of climate policy-related uncertainties relative to the historical mean remains robust across alternative local and global CPU metrics, as well as in a mixed-frequency setup, given the availability of high-frequency (weekly) CPU data. Moreover, the importance of local- and global-CPUs is also found to hold for forecasting the inflation rates of 11 other advanced and emerging countries, in a statistically significant manner relative to the historical average model. Across all 12 economies, own- and global-CPUs perform equally well in forecasting the respective inflation rates. The general importance of uncertainties surrounding policy decisions to tackle climate change in shaping the future path of inflation, understandably, carries implications for the monetary authority.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100080"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Foreign finance inflows and climate change in Africa: Revisiting the debate using machine learning‑based modelling within STIRPAT framework 外国资金流入与非洲气候变化：在STIRPAT框架内使用基于机器学习的建模重新审视辩论

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100084

Abdulkadri Toyin Alabi

{"title":"Foreign finance inflows and climate change in Africa: Revisiting the debate using machine learning‑based modelling within STIRPAT framework","authors":"Abdulkadri Toyin Alabi","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study revisits how different foreign finance inflows shape greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Africa, identifying which inflows reduce or increase emissions and why. Using a balanced panel of 20 African countries (1990–2022), the STIRPAT (Stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) framework is imbedded in predictive models (Linear Regression, Random Forest, Neural Network, Light-GBM, and XG-Boost) trained on a normalized 70:30 split. Nonlinear unit‑root checks were performed, and implementation of SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to interpret feature contributions and heterogeneity. This study’s machine-learning models reveal the African reality: Foreign aid is the most influential and heterogeneous driver, raising or lowering emissions depending on allocation, followed by renewable energy, literacy, population intensity, and GDP. Remittances and FDI exert smaller, context‑dependent effects. SHAP shows renewables lower emissions primarily when they displace fossil generation. The implication is straightforward: Africa’s emissions path is not predetermined by mere capital inflows; it is shaped by whether those inflows are steered toward clean composition and technique upgrades. Therefore, the redirection of foreign aids toward clean infrastructure is implied, alongside prioritising renewables that displace fossils, and design incentives to steer private capital toward low‑carbon outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100084"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leveraging carbon taxes to combat climate change: The role of technological change and financial development 利用碳税对抗气候变化：技术变革和金融发展的作用

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100083

Salem Boubakri , Insaf Abbassi , Coumba Aicha Bouba

{"title":"Leveraging carbon taxes to combat climate change: The role of technological change and financial development","authors":"Salem Boubakri , Insaf Abbassi , Coumba Aicha Bouba","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2026.100083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effectiveness of carbon taxes in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, focussing on a panel of 17 European countries that have implemented advanced carbon pricing strategies. Existing studies have explored the <em>ex post</em> effects of carbon pricing on emissions; this research offers new empirical evidence on the threshold role of green technological (greentech) innovation and financial development in determining the effectiveness of carbon tax across European economies. Using a panel smooth transition regression framework, the analysis accounts for cross-country heterogeneity and non-linear dynamics in the relationship between carbon taxation and emissions. The results reveal that the impact of carbon taxes on GHG emissions is non-linear and dependent on the level of greentech innovation and financial development. Specifically, at higher levels of greentech index, the marginal effect is negative and statistically significant, indicating that a 1% increase in carbon taxation is associated with a 0.03% reduction in per capita GHG emissions. When the financial development index is the transition variable, the transition is significantly sharper, suggesting that financial development produces a more discrete and pronounced asymmetry than greentech innovation in the response of emissions to carbon taxation. These findings highlight the significance of investing in both technological innovation and the financial sector to ensure that carbon pricing advances climate goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"14 ","pages":"Article 100083"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Biodiversity, financial markets, and systemic risk: A synthesizing review 生物多样性、金融市场和系统性风险：综合综述

Journal of Climate Finance Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100078

Brian M. Lucey , Andrew Urquhart , Samuel Vigne

{"title":"Biodiversity, financial markets, and systemic risk: A synthesizing review","authors":"Brian M. Lucey , Andrew Urquhart , Samuel Vigne","doi":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jclimf.2025.100078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biodiversity loss is now commonly recognized as a distinct source of financial risk, with transmission, measurement, and pricing properties that overlap with but are neither reducible nor identical to those of climate change Recent academic and policy work highlights that biodiversity shocks can undermine firm value, credit quality and access, and sovereign stability, while also contributing to systemic financial stress. However the field as yet remains at an early stage compared to the developed literature on climate finance. In this review, we aim to synthesize the emergent literature with particular emphasis on financial market evidence and systemic-risk channels. This review (i) briefly summarizes the biodiversity crisis as an ecological and economic phenomenon; (ii) introduces a working taxonomy of biodiversity-related financial risks; (iii) reviews corporate-level measures and their methodological strengths and weaknesses; (iv) overviews how biodiversity risk is priced, with particular attention to volatility, liquidity, and cross asset contagion; and (v) considers governance, disclosure, and supervisory initiatives. The paper concludes with a forward-looking research agenda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate Finance","volume":"13 ","pages":"Article 100078"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0