FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第8页

Cocreating futures—A response to Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett, “Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt” 共同创造期货——对Fenton - O'Creevy和Tuckett的《选择期货:信念、叙事、矛盾心理和建设性怀疑的作用》的回应

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-27 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.121

Angela Wilkinson, B. Flowers

引用次数: 2

A critical evaluation of 42, large-scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys 对42项大型科技前瞻性德尔菲调查进行了批判性评价

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.118

Ian Belton, Kerstin Cuhls, George Wright

{"title":"A critical evaluation of 42, large-scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys","authors":"Ian Belton, Kerstin Cuhls, George Wright","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.118","url":null,"abstract":"Large-scale Delphi surveys on technology foresight started in the 1960s and involve an average of about 2000 participants answering, potentially, up to about 450 items. This contrasts sharply with the participation and content of the more common, smaller-scale Delphi surveys. Previously, Belton et al. developed “six steps” to underpin a well-founded and defensible Delphi process and we apply these steps in a novel evaluation of the quality of 42 large-scale technology foresight surveys. Using a detailed analysis of two exemplar studies and a content analysis of all 42 surveys, we explore whether such surveys differ systematically from “traditional” smaller-scale Delphi surveys and, if so, why this may be and what it may mean for the quality of data produced. We conclude that there are some problematic issues within these surveys—to do with (i) data quality in both the numerical summarizing of participant's between-round feedback and in the reporting of final round numerical responses, (ii) the infrequent elicitation of rationales to justify participants' proffered numerical responses, and, when such rationales are elicited, (iii) the between-round summary and presentation of the rationales. We speculate on the reasons for these design differences in the extant large-scale surveys and conclude that extra-survey political influences, such as differing objectives and the need to demonstrate wide-ranging expert participation, may be the underlying cause. We conclude with considerations and recommendations for the design of future large-scale Delphi surveys to enable the underlying process to become better-founded and more defensible to procedural evaluation.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137687029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dominant narratives, uncertainty denial, negative capability, and conviction: A commentary on Fenton‐O'Creevy and Tuckett (2021) 主导叙事、不确定性否认、消极能力和信念:芬顿-奥克里维和塔克特评论(2021)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.117

James Derbyshire

引用次数: 2

Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) 情景、战略对话和预测:罗兰和西班牙人评论(2021)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.112

Robert Fildes

引用次数: 0

Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios 扩大IPAT的身份，以量化可持续性情景

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-10 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.116

Kristian Skånberg, Åsa Svenfelt

{"title":"Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios","authors":"Kristian Skånberg, Åsa Svenfelt","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.116","url":null,"abstract":"This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight-step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man-made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back-bone instrument in making the energy system fossil-free will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137506921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A timely (and timeless) blend of theory and practice: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) 理论与实践的及时(和永恒)融合:罗兰和西班牙人评论(2021)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.113

Gary Bowman

引用次数: 0

Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt 选择未来:信念、叙述、矛盾心理和建设性怀疑的作用

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.111

Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy, D. Tuckett

{"title":"Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt","authors":"Mark Fenton‐O'Creevy, D. Tuckett","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.111","url":null,"abstract":"Institutional decisions about the future, that matter, are usually made in a context of considerable uncertainty. Although the intention is success the possibility of failure must inevitably be present, whether recognized or not. The principal purposes of this study are twofold. First, we argue that uncertainty contexts require that decisions to create the future are supported by a particular type of future oriented or foresight narrative which we call a conviction narrative . Its essential function is to combine available knowledge about how to achieve desired outcomes with the feeling that the selected action will achieve the aim. Second, we introduce two states, in which conviction may be achieved, divided, and integrated, to argue that research into how conviction is achieved by individuals or institutions making decisions, can be an extremely promising and practical avenue for foresight studies, throwing light on several issues, particularly the oft ‐ noted reluctance to change course and attachment to single stories of the future. The focus on the reality of uncertainty and the two states in which it can be met, can also enhance the research and practice of narrative foresight, through more systematic theorization of the role of emotion and ambivalence in narrative thought and in the processes through which future ‐ focused narratives generate action under uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82200918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

From Shell engineer to social architect and thought leader: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) 从壳牌工程师到社会架构师和思想领袖:罗兰和西班牙人评论(2021)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.115

Paul J. H. Schoemaker

引用次数: 0

Professor Kees van der Heijden: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021) Kees van der Heijden教授:罗兰与西班牙人评论(2021)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-27 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.114

Ronald M. Bradfield

引用次数: 0

Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management 追溯情景研究在商业和管理领域的进展

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-11-15 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.109

Arbrie Jashari, Victor Tiberius, Marina Dabić

{"title":"Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management","authors":"Arbrie Jashari, Victor Tiberius, Marina Dabić","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.109","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.109","url":null,"abstract":"Business and management research on scenarios has been highly productive over the decades but led to a complex literature that is hard to oversee. To organize the field and identify distinguishable research clusters, we conducted a co-citation analysis focusing on the long-term history of research. We compare our findings with a previously published bibliographic coupling, focusing on the more recent research to trace its development over time. Our study revealed six research clusters: (1) Planning the Future with Scenarios, (2) Scenario Planning in Strategic Management, (3) Reinforcing the Scenario Technique, (4) Integration of Scenario Planning and MCDA, (5) Combination of Different Methods, and (6) Decision-making through Stochastic Programming, whereas the bibliographic coupling generated 11 clusters. Some former research clusters were divided into separate new clusters, while others were united. Additionally, completely new clusters emerged. Future research on scenarios is expected (1) to further differentiate into strategy and operations, (2) to be based on “behavioral futures” or “behavioral foresight” as a new research stream, (3) to advance the scenario technique methodically and include new specific scenario generation methods, and (4) to put forth new application areas.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.109","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90144541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5