Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Robert Fildes
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden's influential book, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long-term uncertainty.

情景、战略对话和预测:罗兰和西班牙人评论(2021)
这篇评论回顾了Kees van der Heijden的影响深远的著作《情景:战略对话的艺术》(Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation)的作者早期的一篇书评,强调了预测在情景构建中的作用一直被忽视。此外,关于情景是否提供的不仅仅是可信的故事,仍然存在相当大的模糊性。该综述强调需要通过更好地理解预测和情景构建之间的联系来解决情景研究文献中的这些模糊性。成功的好处是对长期不确定性有了更好的理解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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