FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献_第7页

The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation 战略对话，25年后:回顾Kees van der Heijden的《情景:战略对话的艺术》

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.102

Nicholas J. Rowland, Matthew J. Spaniol

引用次数: 10

Using cross-impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment 利用交叉影响分析进行概率风险评估

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.103

Ahti Salo, Edoardo Tosoni, Juho Roponen, Derek W. Bunn

{"title":"Using cross-impact analysis for probabilistic risk assessment","authors":"Ahti Salo, Edoardo Tosoni, Juho Roponen, Derek W. Bunn","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.103","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.103","url":null,"abstract":"Cross-impact analysis is widely employed to inform management and policy decisions based on the formulation of scenarios, defined as combinations of outcomes of relevant uncertainty factors. In this paper, we argue that the use of nonprobabilistic variants of cross-impact analysis is problematic in the context of risk assessment where the usual aim is to produce conservative risk estimates which may exceed but are not smaller than the actual risk level. Then, building on the characterization of probabilistic dependencies, we develop an approach to probabilistic cross-impact analysis which (i) admits several kinds of probabilistic statements about the outcomes of relevant uncertainty factors and their dependencies; (ii) maps such statements into constraints on the joint probability distribution over all possible scenarios; (iii) provides support for preserving the consistency of elicited statements; and (iv) uses mathematical optimization to compute lower and upper bounds on the overall risk level. This approach—which is illustrated with an example from the context of nuclear waste repositories—is useful in that it retains the informativeness of cross-impact statements while ensuring that these statements are interpreted within the coherent framework of probability theory.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.103","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78882677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real-time Delphi study 可持续道路货运的技术预见:来自全球实时德尔菲研究的见解

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.101

Tobias Meyer, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Evi Hartmann

{"title":"Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real-time Delphi study","authors":"Tobias Meyer, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Evi Hartmann","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.101","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.101","url":null,"abstract":"Organizations increasingly adopt technologies and logistics measures to improve their social sustainability, reduce transportation-related carbon emissions, or even design their supply chains carbon negative. However, the speed at which this adoption is progressing is not fast enough to address the sustainability challenges of the world today. To gain deeper knowledge about the adoption process of sustainability-related measures in road freight transportation, this paper examines barriers currently hindering a broader market penetration and derives expected timeframes when mass adoption of 14 relevant technologies will occur. Furthermore, the technologies' impacts on the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability are discussed providing recommendations, on which technologies the respective stakeholders might focus on in the future. Since we want to examines a long-term technology perspective of the next 25 years, we rely on systematic foresight methodology. More specifically, we collect empirical data by use of a real-time Delphi survey, which particularly suits complex and uncertain environments. Our global panel includes 116 experts from 25 different countries. The assessments are grouped into short-term, midterm, midterm to long-term, and long-term developments. The categories shed light on potential drivers and barriers to the implementation of the surveyed technologies. The findings emphasize the need to systematically select suitable measures and promote those that are expected to deliver short-term sustainability improvements to address current deficits in a timely manner. The article further outlines the crucial role of politics in developing necessary regulative frameworks to drive sustainability in road freight transportation.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.101","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77944063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

New perspectives for data-supported foresight: The hybrid AI-expert approach 数据支持预测的新视角:混合人工智能专家方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.99

Amber Geurts, Ralph Gutknecht, Philine Warnke, Arjen Goetheer, Elna Schirrmeister, Babette Bakker, Svetlana Meissner

引用次数: 9

Toward a science of futures and foresight: Response to 10 experts' commentaries 走向未来和预见的科学:对10位专家评论的回应

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-10 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.97

Alessandro Fergnani, Thomas J. Chermack

引用次数: 5

Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long-term Canadian study 战略情报预测的跟踪准确性:来自加拿大一项长期研究的结果

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-07-10 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.98

David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin

{"title":"Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long-term Canadian study","authors":"David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.98","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.98","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting plays a vital role in intelligence assessment and contributes to national security decision-making by improving strategic foresight. Remarkably, most intelligence organizations do not proactively track their forecasting accuracy and, therefore, do not know how accurate their forecasts are or what types of biases intelligence analysts (or organizations) might exhibit. We review research on geopolitical forecasting and a roughly decade-long program of research to assess the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts produced by and for the Government of Canada. This research is described in three phases corresponding to previously published research, following which novel analyses (drawing from the data used in the earlier phases) are reported. The findings reveal a high degree of forecasting accuracy as well as significant underconfidence. These results were evident regardless of whether analysts assigned numeric probabilities to their forecasts. However, the novel analyses clarified that there is a substantial cost to accuracy if end-users rely on their own interpretations of verbal probability terms used in the forecasts. We recommend that intelligence organizations proactively track forecasting accuracy as a means of supporting accountability and organizational learning. We further recommend that intelligence organizations use numeric probabilities in their forecasts to support better comprehension of these estimates by end-users.","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"3 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.98","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86636134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

The simulation manifesto: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021 模拟宣言:对Lustick和Tetlock的评论2021

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.92

Scott E. Page

引用次数: 0

Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios 身份风洞:一种使用场景发现组织战略身份的方法

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.96

Alessandro Fergnani, John A. Sweeney

{"title":"Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios","authors":"Alessandro Fergnani, John A. Sweeney","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.96","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ffo2.96","url":null,"abstract":"In a turbulent environment characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question \"who are we as an organization?\" Some organizations may concurrently hold multiple identities without being clear on whether these are shared and agreed upon, and on their role in potentially disruptive futures. In response to this challenge and addressing a methodological gap in the broader futures and foresight field, we draw on both futures and foresight as well as management and organization literature to propose a new organizational foresight method: Identity Wind Tunneling (IWT). Designed as an enhancement of wind tunneling approaches, IWT allows an organization to understand, test, and manage multiple organizational identities. Furthermore, IWT facilitates the alignment of organizational identities across a range of possible futures created during a scenario planning process with the ultimate goal of finding a strategic identity. This represents the central, enduring, and distinctive role that the organization embodies while pursuing a long-term and holistic strategic direction that is robust across all scenarios. The strategic identity either clarifies or reimagines the identity of the organization. The paper provides a step-by-step explanation of how to implement IWT and presents a case study of its application. The method is also presented with a series of open-source templates created on the whiteboard collaborative platform Miro (https://miro.com/app/board/o9J_kqakYjs=/).","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"3 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/ffo2.96","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"101999116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95) 手工大麻:家庭农业和大麻产业的未来。Ryan Stoa, 2018。马萨诸塞州剑桥:麻省理工学院出版社，256页。ISBN: 9780262038867(港币27.95元)

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-05-11 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.95

Alexander B. Kinney

引用次数: 0

Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021 宏观世界和微观预测:吕斯蒂克和泰特洛克评论2021

FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2021-04-10 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.83

Paul J. H. Schoemaker

引用次数: 0