Nature foodPub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z
Hao Zhao, Xiangwen Fan, Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Chao Wang, Petr Havlík, Zhenling Cui, Juraj Balkovic, Mario Herrero, Zhou Shi, Jinfeng Chang
{"title":"Holistic food system innovation strategies can close up to 80% of China’s domestic protein gaps while reducing global environmental impacts","authors":"Hao Zhao, Xiangwen Fan, Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Chao Wang, Petr Havlík, Zhenling Cui, Juraj Balkovic, Mario Herrero, Zhou Shi, Jinfeng Chang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z","url":null,"abstract":"China’s imports of livestock feed, particularly protein-rich feeds, pose challenges to global environmental sustainability. Achieving protein self-sufficiency for food and feed in China without exceeding environmental boundaries requires integrated measures and optimization of China’s food system. Here we propose holistic food system innovation strategies consisting of three components—technological innovation, integrated spatial planning and demand-side options—to reduce protein import dependency and promote global environmental sustainability. We find that food system innovations can close almost 80% of China’s future protein gaps while reducing 57–85% of agricultural import-embodied environmental impacts. Deploying these innovations would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (22–27%) and people’s harmful exposure to ammonia (73–81%) compared with the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological innovations play a key role in closing protein gaps, while integrated crop–livestock spatial planning is imperative for achieving environmental and health targets. China’s feed imports have a considerable environmental impact globally. This modelling study quantifies China’s potential protein self-sufficiency by simulating farming spatial relocation according to irrigation water and nitrogen surplus, as well as technological innovations and demand-side measures.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"581-591"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China’s livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost","authors":"Yue Wang, Zhiping Zhu, Hongmin Dong, Xiuming Zhang, Sitong Wang, Baojing Gu","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01010-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01010-0","url":null,"abstract":"The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China’s carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4–6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e−1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China. Reducing China’s methane emissions is key to achieving carbon neutrality. Using four national-scale field surveys, a high-resolution dataset of Chinese methane emissions over the period 1990−2020 is compiled and used to estimate past and future emission trajectories while highlighting cost-effective mitigation measures.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"603-614"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An ecological reorientation of the Codex Alimentarius Commission could help transform food systems","authors":"Mark Lawrence, Christine Parker, Hope Johnson, Fiona Haines, Monique Boatwright, Tanita Northcott, Phillip Baker","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01009-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01009-7","url":null,"abstract":"The Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) has a substantial influence over the structure and operation of food systems by setting international standards that affect the composition, structure and labelling of food. Despite the dual mandates of Codex to protect public health and ensure fair practices in food trade, food systems are increasingly unhealthy and unsustainable. An ecological reorientation of the decision-making elements that influence how Codex sets food standards—particularly mandates, governance and risk assessment—could help transform food systems towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ahead of the Codex Alimentarius Commission Strategic Plan for 2026–2031, this Perspective proposes changes to three decision-making elements influencing how Codex sets food standards—namely, mandates, governance and risk assessment—so that new standards enable healthy and sustainable food systems.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"557-562"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141557168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w
Theresa W. Ong, Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Estelí Jiménez-Soto, Erin Jackson, Ivette Perfecto, Hannah Duff
{"title":"Momentum for agroecology in the USA","authors":"Theresa W. Ong, Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Estelí Jiménez-Soto, Erin Jackson, Ivette Perfecto, Hannah Duff","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w","url":null,"abstract":"Despite decades of resistance in the USA, agroecology is gaining momentum as a catalyst for food systems transformation, calling for coordinated action between science, practice and movement to dismantle the dominant industrial paradigm.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"539-541"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141539105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01013-x
Guoqi Yu, Ruijin Lu, Jiaxi Yang, Mohammad L. Rahman, Ling-Jun Li, Dong D. Wang, Qi Sun, Wei Wei Pang, Claire Guivarch, Anna Birukov, Jagteshwar Grewal, Zhen Chen, Cuilin Zhang
{"title":"Healthy dietary patterns are associated with exposure to environmental chemicals in a pregnancy cohort","authors":"Guoqi Yu, Ruijin Lu, Jiaxi Yang, Mohammad L. Rahman, Ling-Jun Li, Dong D. Wang, Qi Sun, Wei Wei Pang, Claire Guivarch, Anna Birukov, Jagteshwar Grewal, Zhen Chen, Cuilin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01013-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01013-x","url":null,"abstract":"Healthy dietary patterns, such as the alternate Mediterranean diet and alternate Healthy Eating Index, benefit cardiometabolic health. However, several food components of these dietary patterns are primary sources of environmental chemicals. Here, using data from a racially and ethnically diverse US cohort, we show that healthy dietary pattern scores were positively associated with plasma chemical exposure in pregnancy, particularly for the alternate Mediterranean diet and alternate Healthy Eating Index with polychlorinated biphenyls and per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances. The associations appeared stronger among Asian and Pacific Islanders. These findings suggest that optimizing the benefits of a healthy diet requires concerted regulatory efforts aimed at lowering environmental chemical exposure. Data on chemical concentrations in commonly recommended diets are sparse. This study estimates the association between adherence to three dietary patterns considered healthy and exposure to environmental chemicals in a multi-racial pregnancy cohort, underscoring the need for increased regulation and monitoring of environmental contaminants.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"563-568"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11272572/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141478274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-06-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01008-8
Weiyi Gu, Guosong Ma, Rui Wang, Laura Scherer, Pan He, Longlong Xia, Yuyao Zhu, Jun Bi, Beibei Liu
{"title":"Climate adaptation through crop migration requires a nexus perspective for environmental sustainability in the North China Plain","authors":"Weiyi Gu, Guosong Ma, Rui Wang, Laura Scherer, Pan He, Longlong Xia, Yuyao Zhu, Jun Bi, Beibei Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01008-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01008-8","url":null,"abstract":"Crop migration can moderate the impacts of global warming on crop production, but its feedback on the climate and environment remains unknown. Here we develop an integrated framework to capture the climate impacts and the feedback of adaptation behaviours with the land–water–energy–carbon nexus perspective and identify opportunities to achieve the synergies between climate adaptation and environmental sustainability. We apply the framework to assess wheat and maize migration in the North China Plain and show that adaptation through wheat migration could increase crop production by ~18.5% in the 2050s, but at the cost of disproportional increment in land use (~19.2%), water use (~20.2%), energy use (~19.5%) and carbon emissions (~19.9%). Irrigation and fertilization management are critical mitigation opportunities in the framework, through which wheat migration can be optimized to reduce the climatic and environmental impacts and avoid potential carbon leakage. Our work highlights the sustainable climate adaptation to mitigate negative environmental externalities. This study reveals that wheat migration as a strategy for climate adaptation lacks sustainability in the North China Plain. Irrigation and fertilization management provide mitigation opportunities to reduce negative environmental impacts and avoid carbon leakage.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"569-580"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141462578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-06-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01005-x
Damian Leonardo Arévalo-Martínez
{"title":"Offshore aquaculture greenhouse gas emissions based on ocean net primary productivity","authors":"Damian Leonardo Arévalo-Martínez","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01005-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01005-x","url":null,"abstract":"Mariculture, or aquaculture in marine coastal environments, can contribute towards projected food demand increases. Greenhouse gas emissions from mariculture, including methane and nitrous oxide, could be 40% lower than emissions from land-based aquaculture.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"548-549"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141435880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-06-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01004-y
Lu Shen, Lidong Wu, Wei Wei, Yi Yang, Michael J. MacLeod, Jintai Lin, Guodong Song, Junji Yuan, Ping Yang, Lin Wu, Mingwei Li, Minghao Zhuang
{"title":"Marine aquaculture can deliver 40% lower carbon footprints than freshwater aquaculture based on feed, energy and biogeochemical cycles","authors":"Lu Shen, Lidong Wu, Wei Wei, Yi Yang, Michael J. MacLeod, Jintai Lin, Guodong Song, Junji Yuan, Ping Yang, Lin Wu, Mingwei Li, Minghao Zhuang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01004-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01004-y","url":null,"abstract":"Freshwater aquaculture is an increasingly important source of blue foods but produces substantial methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Marine aquaculture, also known as mariculture, is a smaller sector with a large growth potential, but its climate impacts are challenging to accurately quantify. Here we assess the greenhouse gas emissions from mariculture’s aquatic environment in global potentially suitable areas at 10 km resolution on the basis of marine biogeochemical cycles, greenhouse gas measurements from research cruises and satellite-observed net primary productivity. Mariculture’s aquatic emissions intensities are estimated to be 1–6 g CH4 kg−1 carcass weight and 0.05–0.2 g N2O kg−1 carcass weight, >98% and >80% lower than freshwater systems. Using a life-cycle assessment approach, we show that mariculture’s carbon footprints are ~40% lower than those of freshwater aquaculture based on feed, energy use and the aquatic environment emissions. Adoption of mariculture alongside freshwater aquaculture production could offer considerable climate benefits to meet future dietary protein and nutritional needs. Combining observations and biogeochemical theories, mariculture greenhouse gas emissions are estimated in comparison with freshwater aquaculture. Climate-friendly farm designs, species selection and low-density operational practices can mitigate damage to marine ecosystems and avoid carbon loss.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"615-624"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141435999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-06-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01003-z
Nicola M. Lowe, Swarnim Gupta
{"title":"Food fortification programmes and zinc deficiency","authors":"Nicola M. Lowe, Swarnim Gupta","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01003-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01003-z","url":null,"abstract":"The complex realities of most countries grappling with zinc deficiency pose challenges to the implementation of highly compliant, mandatory, large-scale food fortification programmes.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"546-547"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141425499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nature foodPub Date : 2024-06-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00997-w
K. Ryan Wessells, Mari S. Manger, Becky L. Tsang, Kenneth H. Brown, Christine M. McDonald
{"title":"Mandatory large-scale food fortification programmes can reduce the estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by up to 50% globally","authors":"K. Ryan Wessells, Mari S. Manger, Becky L. Tsang, Kenneth H. Brown, Christine M. McDonald","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00997-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00997-w","url":null,"abstract":"Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) can increase dietary micronutrient intake and improve micronutrient status. Here we used food balance sheet data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to estimate current country-specific prevalences of inadequate zinc intake. We assessed the potential effects of improving existing LSFF programmes for cereal grains or implementing new programmes in 40 countries where zinc deficiency is a potential public health problem. Accounting for LSFF programmes as currently implemented, 15% of the global population (1.13 billion individuals) is estimated to have inadequate zinc intake. In countries where zinc deficiency is a potential public health problem, the implementation of high-quality mandatory LSFF programmes that include zinc as a fortificant would substantially increase the availability of zinc in the national food supply, reducing the estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by up to 50% globally. Investments in strong LSFF programmes could have a substantial impact on population zinc status. Using food balance sheet data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, this study shows that mandatory large-scale food fortification programmes in the 40 countries where zinc deficiency is considered a public health problem could considerably reduce the prevalence of inadequate dietary zinc intake globally.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"625-637"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00997-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141425494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}